Open Forum Thursday

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31 Comments

  1. artcroft

     /  15th October 2020

    Well I’m shocked to hear Winston was involved and briefed on the setting up of the foundation that collected money for his party. I completely believed him when he said it was nothing to do with him.

    I wonder if further charges could be pending against others after the election…?

    Reply
  2. Reply
      • Alan, how do you feel about him telling people that he can’t catch C19 again now that he’s had it and recovered ?

        Reply
      • That opens with “The media’s predictions of President Donald Trump’s certain defeat…” – I haven’t seen any media predicting certain defeat.

        Some comparisons can be made with 2016 but it’s a lot different this time – it’s now well known how Trump would look as president, he is defending rather than attacking as underdog, and Hillary Clinton isn’t standing against him.

        Also Covid.

        Reply
          • Polls don’t predict, they measure approximate support at a point in time. That is a poor headline.

            From the article:

            As of October 12, 2020, the IBD/TIPP poll has Trump losing to Biden by 8.5 percentage points, and the USC poll has Trump losing to Biden by 13 percentage points.

            That’s as of 3 weeks before the election.

            While TechnoMetrica President Raghavan Mayur has boasted that his company’s polling methods factor in the likelihood of each polled voter actually casting a vote on Election Day, he told Investor.com, “Right now, data suggests a significant number of votes are still in play, and factors like COVID-19, economic stimulus and mail-in voting could have a real impact. This is a race to watch.”

            As was the case in 2016 a lot could happen between polls now and the election.

            If the two polls mentioned turn out to match the election result (there’s likely to be some polls that end up matching the result) then it could well be a landslide for Biden, but without analysing the key swing state polls all of country polls make poor predictors.

            Reply
          • It’s easy to find all sorts of predictions that aren’t actually predictions, as well as misleading headlines

            ‘Tracking well’: Data expert predicts Donald Trump will win US election

            But:

            Professor Bela Stantic, who founded and directs the Big Data and Smart Analytics Lab and Queensland’s Griffith University, said on Sunday his initial analyst showed Trump was “tracking really well”.

            “It is maybe early, but I can tell you that the trend we identified in advance last time is holding,” Prof Stantic told news.com.au.

            https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/world/2020/09/tracking-well-data-expert-predicts-donald-trump-will-win-us-election.html

            Then there’s this sort of prediction (a bit like a Winston prediction:

            Mr Trump has largely dismissed polling that does not show him winning, and has claimed that he is ahead “in every poll that matters.”

            In a tweet earlier this year, Mr Trump told Fox News – long considered a safe harbour for right-wing ideas and politicians – to fire their “Fake Pollster” because he had never had a good Fox Poll.” In the tweet, he shared an image from 2016 of a Fox News chyron reporting that Ms Clinton was leading Mr Trump.

            https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election/donald-trump-joe-biden-polls-2020-election-b1015005.html

            Reply
      • Fox News: New polls in key battlegrounds raise concerns for Trump

        Vice President Mike Pence says that the “road to victory runs right through” Michigan.

        But as Pence arrived in Michigan, a new public opinion poll released by EPIC/MRA indicated Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden leading Trump 48%-39% among likely voters. The survey, conducted Oct. 8-12, is pretty much in line with other polls conducted in October, which put Biden’s lead in Michigan in the 6-10 point range.

        Four years ago, an average of the polls on the eve of the election indicated Clinton with a 3.6 point edge. But Trump ended up carrying the state – and its 16 electoral votes – by just three-tenths of 1%.

        https://www.foxnews.com/politics/new-polls-in-key-battlegrounds-raise-concerns-for-trump

        There’s nearly 3 weeks until election day (although some states have already started voting) and things could change, but remember that late intervention by James Comey is likely to have a significant impact on the 2016 election:
        https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/

        It’s possible but unlikely to happen like this again.

        Reply
      • Patzcuaro

         /  15th October 2020

        Not what you would call an in depth look at the election, more the pundits good it wrong last time and might again. Trump’s problem he is running on his record this time and there is no Hilary Clinton to lock up.
        Also Trump appears to think he can win by turning out his base again but by appealing to them he is turning off suburban women, moderate Republicans and now seniors.
        The polls were relatively accurate in 2016 but Trump managed to win enough electoral college votes to win while losing the popular vote. Can he do it again while losing the popular vote by a bigger margin?

        Reply
  3. Blazer

     /  15th October 2020

    I read about it and I sawed it on the…News…

    Reply
    • Blazer

       /  15th October 2020

      ‘ rebuffed by the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment who are in charge of granting Managed Isolation and Quarantine exemptions without reason around 4.30pm yesterday, 72 hours after it was lodged.’.

      You’ve caught Collins disease’.

      Reply
      • Alan Wilkinson

         /  15th October 2020

        You’ve got Jacinda jaw. Is MBIE somehow immune from “Be Kind”? Takes three days to say no in a life and death situation – situation normal for a Lefty bureaucracy so why bother questioning it?

        Reply
        • NOEL

           /  15th October 2020

          Generally, negative day 3 and day 12 COVID-19 tests and a full health assessment are needed in order to consider an exemption application.

          Applications are processed based on urgency and within 5–7 working days.

          Reply
          • Alan Wilkinson

             /  15th October 2020

            Exactly. “Be Kind” doesn’t apply. Don’t interfere with bureaucratic process.

            Reply
      • That’s the whole point; it was rebuffed and he didn’t see his mother before she died.

        The waffle from the PM doesn’t change anything or make these cases less tragic.

        Reply
  4. NOEL

     /  15th October 2020

    “Exemptions for exceptional reasons are approved only in rare circumstances
    Exemptions for exceptional circumstances, such as to visit a dying relative, are only approved when the health risk has been assessed as being low and can be managed. In most cases, such exemptions are approved for a temporary period and you will need to return to the managed isolation facility to complete your 14 days.

    Because of the serious public health risk involved, it is unlikely approval will be granted to attend a funeral or tangihanga where there may be multiple people gathered. This would create an unacceptable risk of potential COVID-19 transmission.

    If an application is successful, you will need to agree to a strict release plan that sets out where you will visit, and for how long. You must agree to adhere to the conditions of your release plan before an exemption can be granted. This will include keeping 2 metres apart from family and loved ones.

    This could mean the time you spend with family and loved ones is monitored with less privacy than you expected. You should think about whether you are comfortable with this before you apply.”

    Reply
  5. Corky

     /  15th October 2020

    Listened to the leaders debate. Not bad from both leaders. I was about to call a draw when I heard Jacinda say we still need to keep up our refugee obligations.

    Judith was the clear winner in my opinion.

    Reply

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