The latest Colmar Brunton polling was done this week (10-14 October) and with regular recent polling gives us the best idea of support levels and trends, but one of the most notable aspects is there is little change from their last poll.
It clearly confirmed that National+ACT are a long way from challenging, with their combined total 39% – on last night’s debate Judith Collins looked worn out and her body language conceded a demoralising defeat, while Jacinda Ardern looked happy and positive (most of the time).
- Labour Party: 46% (down 1%)
- National Party: 31% (down 1%)
- ACT: 8% (no change)
- Green Party: 8% (up 2%)
- New Zealand First: 3% (up 1%)
- New Conservative: 2% (up 1%)
- The Opportunities Party: 1% (down 1%)
- Advance New Zealand: 1% (no change)
- Māori Party: 1% (up 1%)
- Don’t know: 7% (down 1%)
- Refused: 8% (up 3%)
The movements are insignificant, apart perhaps from the Green rise.
Labour is borderline for being able to rule with a majority. It depends on how many small party wasted votes there are – on these numbers about 8% will fail to reach the threshold so 46% is about half of the votes that will count.
It’s really annoying that 1 News only publish results rounded to the nearest whole number (about two days after 1 News publish Colmar Brunton posts more accurate results). This can distort movements of the smaller parties in their news coverage.
NZ First up 1% may look promising for them, but they apparently rose from 2.4% to 2.7%, which statistically is an insignificant change.
It’s worth looking at the last four Colmar Brunton results for the main parties. They have polled weekly 17-21 September, 23-27 September, 3-7 October and 10-14 October.
- Labour 48, 47, 47, 46
- National 31, 33, 32, 31
- ACT 7, 8, 8, 8
- Greens 6, 7, 6, 8
- NZ First 2.4, 1.4, 2.4, 2.7
Preferred Prime Minister:
- Jacinda Ardern 55% (up 5%)
- Judith Collins 20% (down 3%
- David Seymour 3% (up 1%)
- Winston Peters 1%
That suggests the Ardern versus Collins aspect of the campaign has worked better for Ardern.
About 1.7 million votes have already been cast, which is half the total enrolled of 3,436,178
Your NZ 
Pete George
/ 16th October 2020David Farrar has posted on the poll at Kiwiblog: https://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2020/10/latest_poll-81.html
Notably he has stopped trying to make any case for a 10% swing and any possibility of National+Act getting close to Labour or Labour+Greens.
Alan Wilkinson
/ 16th October 2020Amusing that Winston’s anointing of Jacinda has come back to bite him, probably fatally.
Pete George
/ 16th October 2020And again a stint in Government has foundered the party.
And worse may be still to come with the SFO charges over dodgy donations. A summary of the secrecy and of Winston’s involvement from guyon Espiner:
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/in-depth/428454/exclusive-the-secret-case-of-the-nz-first-foundation
duperez
/ 16th October 2020That annointment may have done for him. And National too, not just as a whole, but its various parts.
For the body it is not erminal but for Paula Bennett et al it is.
duperez
/ 16th October 2020er, er, er…… Ter… 🙃
Kitty Catkin
/ 16th October 2020Alan, does the story of the scorpion who’s given a lift across the river come to mind ?
Kitty Catkin
/ 16th October 2020The scorpion who was given a ride by a frog.
Winston Peters enabled the PM to have this position despite Labour having far fewer votes. His motives were mixed, of course. But a little common gratitude would be nice, not ‘Tough titty, sucker !’
Alan Wilkinson
/ 16th October 2020Not the best parallel since only Winston is drowning this time.
David
/ 16th October 2020The overseas votes are the wildcard for Labour and the Greens, will the international adulation of Ardern cut the Greens lunch.
Interesting article in Stuff from far left, woke millenial and self-avowed Ardern fangirl Verity Johnson who is left confused as to why nothing has been delivered in the last 3 years…be churlish to advise her to hold up a mirror and enquire why she hasnt achieved anything either but has virtue signalled nothingness for the last 3 years as well. Peas in a pod.
Blazer
/ 16th October 20203 years of nothing being achieved pales into comparison with the 9 years of neglect under National.
Key’s biggest disappointment …the failure of the flag referendum.
At least he and Bill got knighted,he and Thiel now own high country leases and he pulled off his biggest ever deal after ramping the property market.
What a …legacy.
Alan Wilkinson
/ 16th October 2020Now 12 years of neglect, B?
Blazer
/ 16th October 2020Wasn’t particularly impressed by Labour’s very timid approach Al.
Will be expecting bigger things if they win another term.
The looming economic crisis may stymie initiative though.
Btw saw an interesting dissertation on the powerhouse Singaporean economy….one of the reasons for its spectacular success is put down to being a ‘nanny state’!!
Conspiratoor
/ 16th October 2020If it takes a Nanny to transform into the second most “economically free” country in the world then yes, we need more Nannies