A common claim is that this election is Labour’s to lose, and they are doing their best to play things as safely as possible to try to maintain the large lead the polls give them.
With National so far behind the most doubt is on whether Labour will get a majority on their own, or if they survive will NZ First or Greens hold the balance of power. If both the smaller parties make the threshold it’s possible Labour have enough seats to play one against the other – two tales weak.
Greens have been trying to appeal to those who want a much bolder, more progressive left leaning government. That may work to an extent, but they are as likely to get votes from those who want to stop Labour getting sole charge.
Newsroom: Labour, Greens clash over emergency housing
Social Welfare Minister Carmel Sepuloni has hit back at a Green Party U-turn over a rental charge for emergency housing tenants, criticising them for airing their criticisms in the media rather than with her directly.
However social housing advocates say a major change in the way emergency housing operates means the policy is more unfair than when it was first floated – and should be reconsidered.
Meanwhile both National and NZ First have ramped up their attempts to pick up votes, but NZ First is fighting for survival, and National seem to have largely given up competing head to head with Labour, instead trying more to stop a collapse in support rather than seeking an unlikely surge.
While Judith Collins had a better than expected debate against Jacinda Ardern it wasn’t enough to make much difference, especially alongside a poor week for National. They had multiple problems with their economic policy that they had to keep trying to defend, and they also have problems with bad publicity over questionable or misleading claims being made by various candidates.
Luke Malpass (Stuff): National goes hunting for votes on the right while Labour plays it safe
This was the week we found out exactly what the two major parties’ game plan is.
Labour now clearly believes it can win a majority – or thereabouts (although people in the party’s campaign remain pessimistic, citing history). National is now in the business of trying to win votes back from ACT, off NZ First, and off the other social conservative parties, which seem to be making a bit of a run in the polls.
While National has not given up the ghost, it is clear that its aim for the next couple of weeks is to prevent the party going into what its own MPs call the “death spiral”: where potential centre-right voters know National won’t be in government and peel off to other alternatives, defenestrating the party and making the rebuild task much harder.
But ACT, which is now polling at 7 per cent and is the biggest current recipient of the collapse of National’s vote, is now offering something much more consistent, and principled, than National has been able to offer.
ACT’s draft Budget, unlike National’s, added up. It also had some intellectual rigour behind it.
This election remains firmly in Labour’s favour. No-one in National is any longer talking about a ‘’path to victory’’. It’s now about damage control and MPs with even healthy majorities are hunkering down in their electorates, making sure they hold their seats. There’s still three weeks to go and anything could happen, but it’s still Labour’s to lose.
That’s certainly how it looks. National is trying to recover support lost to ACT, and maybe pick up (or stop losing more) a bit of support in the centre.
NZ First have been really struggling. Peters looks a couple of generations out of synch with Ardern. But he is usually a canny campaigner, and yesterday he made a big play, albeit on a well worn topic.
Thomas Manch (Stuff): Winston Peters’ Ōrewa speech is a war-cry to an old, inflated enemy
Winston Peters has reached into the past in the hope of raiding ACT and National votes for his ailing party.
NZ First leader Winston Peters has attacked Labour over Ihumātao in a blistering speech, saying he stopped a deal there that would have opened a flood of reopened Treaty claims.
He said only NZ First could “protect” the principle of “one law for all” from “wokeish fellow traveller elites”.
The contested land near Auckland airport has been occupied since 2016. It is currently owned by Fletcher Building who had planned a housing development on the land. The land was originally confiscated by the Crown in 1865. Local iwi struck a deal with Fletchers in 2014 that saw the housing project scaled back, but protestors contend the land should be turned over entirely.
Ardern intervened in July of 2019, saying no new building would happen until a peaceful settlement had been reached.
Peters said this happened without consulting him while he was overseas and it was a “terrible decision” – breaking an agreement the two parties had made to avoid “the sort of politically correct policies that undermined the Helen Clark governments.”
“No consultation was ever done with our party, as by Labour’s agreement with us should’ve happened,” Peters said.
He said NZ First “went to the wall” to stop a deal happening but if Labour were re-elected with the Green Party or by itself a deal would go through.
“We said no to Labour. Not once. Not twice. But three times,” Peters said.
“If Labour governs after the election, by themselves (heaven forbid), or with the Greens (God help us all), then they will do a deal at Ihumātao. Nothing is more certain.”
“If the Crown weakens its resolve after the election you just watch the flood of action on previously settled Treaty claims.”
“So if you want a future free from the past and free of guilt choose the only party that can stop Ihumātao and its domino effect and fallout. If you don’t want a new wave of claims on previously settled Treaty claims it’s in your hands. If you want to live in a country where there is ‘one law for all’ only New Zealand First can protect you.”
Peters said National were “nowhere” in the race and a vote for ACT would be wasted.
So shots fired from Peters in all directions. His anti-Ihumātao outburst will appeal to some, but it’s hard to know whether it will swing enough votes NZ First’s way. Peters has struggled to shed an image of being not just yesterday’s man, but last century’s man.
And voters will remember that he didn’t deliver on much of his rhetoric from the last campaign, nor for his enabling of a Labour led government.
Another relative youngster has also been outperforming him.
ACT leader David Seymour said Peters had created the problem by making Ardern prime minister.
“Peters could have promoted one law for all in Cabinet for three years, instead of rolling it out three weeks before the election,” Seymour said.
“This is all too little, too late.”
I wouldn’t rule out a last ditch scrambling out of a political and poll ditch, but times have changed since previous Winston inspired houdini acts. He used to be able to attract a lot of favourable and free media publicity.
After yesterday’s speech Peters got some coverage but he was well down the TV headline pecking order last night, and he is hardly dominating today’s news cycle.
On top of that, most people hardly or don’t follow mainstream media any more. Peters hasn’t adapted much to social media – even National are using new media a lot now.
Labour and ACT are doing what they need too do successfully. Greens may have recovered a bit of essential ground.
National and NZ First are scrapping for any support they can find, and the going is tough. They should also be wary of advanced NZ and New Conservatives picking up some fringe support off them.
It’s three weeks until the election. Maybe the campaign will get interesting, but it’s hard to see Labour losing, it seems more a matter of how well they win.
