Moving on

I have decided to move on from political blogging so I can put more time into personal interests.

I started this blog in 2011 and have put up about 18,500 posts, so about two thousand posts a year on average over none years. I have mostly enjoyed doing this but it has taken up a lot of time. It also takes time monitoring comments.

At times it was like having a second full time job, albeit unpaid, but I have scaled things back over the last few months. I decided to move on a while ago but chose to hang in until after the election.

For a variety of reasons I now want to prioritise my spare time on other things.

I’ll be leaving Your NZ up for now at least. There are a number of reference posts on certain matters that I have done as a service to the public that I want to leave online. Posts from years ago keep coming up in reading stats.

I may post on things occasionally, but I will no longer do regular or daily posts.

I have enjoyed a lot of what I’ve done here, and appreciate the contributions of many commenters, some of whom have been participating here for years. Thanks very much for your input.

To be honest I have kept things going over the last year or so more for others than for myself, but I have decided to now concentrate on new and neglected interests.

I had hoped to contribute to our democracy and promote informed discussion and more positive politics. In reality this has really been just a drop in the political ocean.

I am happy to have had a go at taking part, but I feel now is the time for me to do other things.

Cheers

Big election night win for Labour

Labour did 2-3% better than polls suggested and got 49.1% of the advance and election day votes, equating to 64 of 120 seats. Special votes are still to be counted but they shouldn’t change the overall result much, although it may alter total seats won slightly and may change one or two electorate results.

This is a very good result for Labour, the party’s best result since 1946, and is the first time one party has won a majority of seats under 24 years of MMP (while they got just under half the total votes about 8% of votes will not count for small parties who got under the 5% threshold). This unprecedented result is largely thanks to Jacinda Ardern’s popularity, her and the Government’s handling of Covid, and also Grant Robertsons management of the economy to date.

National did 2-5% worse than polls suggested and had a disastrous outcome, having 26.8% of the vote before official counting and specials. The also got hammered in electorates, losing 15 of them, including Gerry Brownlee, Nick Smith and Chris Bishop (they all get in via the list but Brownlee and Smith and a few others must be seriously considering their political futures).

The other parties got results similar to recent polls. One possible explanation for the shift from National to Labour is that a number of normally National supporters voted Labour to increase the chances of Labour getting a sole majority to significantly reduce the leverage of the Green Party.

Notable election night outcomes – Green MP Chloe Swarbrick has also defied polls and currently leads Labour’s Helen White in Auckland Central by 492 votes. If this result stands after the final count it is a major achievement for Swarbrick and the Greens.

And Māori Party candidate Rawiri Waititi is ahead by 415 votes in Waiariki. If this result survives the final count it gets the Māori Party back into Parliament. Tamati Coffey is the only Labour MP to lose his seat (in a Labour landslide) but will keep his job in Parliament via the list.

As expected David Seymour retained Epsom and ACT got 8% of the votes, which means Seymour will be joined by nine other ACT MPS. That’s a big turnaround of ACT fortunes, in part due to Seymour’s sterling efforts and in part due to National’s poor term and leadership turnover.

A few months ago the Green Party looked like they may struggle to make the threshold, but they fought strongly and came out of election night with 7.6% of the vote and 10 MPs, plus the bonus of their first electorate in fifteen years. They will be celebrating, but may also be disappointed that Labour won’t need them to form a government. They are likely to still be included in some form of governing arrangement but won’t anything like the policy leverage holding the balance of power would have given them.

So for now it looks like a five party Parliament.

The polls were right and Winston Peters was wrong. There was no late surge, and NZ First ended up on 2.7%, with Shane Jones a distant third in Northland. Peters looked and often sounded like a last century politician and was dogged by the SFO investigation of donations. Is this the end of Peters as a politician? Is it the end of NZ First? We will have to wait and see.

No small parties came anywhere near the threshold, with only the Maori Party succeeding by winning one electorate (probably) but will get no other MPs.

Full interim results here: 2020 General Election and Referendums – Preliminary Count

David Farrar has put together an interim list of MPs here: The provisional Parliament.

Also of interest from him:

Interesting to see the difference in support between advance and election day results. This makes the polls for Labour and National look even less accurate.


I’m quite happy with this result. Labour have underperformed on things like housing, poverty, social welfare and tax reform and climate change, but did very well dealing with crises, especially the Covid pandemic, and Grant Robertson has managed the economy reasonably well (the full impact of Covid is yet to be seen).

National had a poor term, a bad year dumping two leaders, and a terrible campaign. They were always going to struggle against Ardern but they made a mess of things regardless. They have a lot of soul searching and rebuilding to do over the next three years.

I’m happy to see ACT in as a party rather than a sole MP, and I’m happy to see Greens surviving and in the mix as well, but without too much influence.

I’m very happy to see Chloe Swarbrick and Rawiri Waititi hopefully win electorates. This is good for smaller parties generally, and should serve as a warning to Labour that they didn’t get everything their own way (they showed some arrogance in the Auckland Central campaign).

And I have no problem with Winston Peters and NZ First dropping out of Parliament. While he has done some good things I have never been a fan of Peters, I just don’t like how he does politics.


Electoral Commission: 480,000 special votes to be counted (in 10 days’ time). Voter turnout est. to be 2.88m or 82.5% of those enrolled, cf 79.8% turnout in 2017.

Open Forum Sunday

This post is open to anyone to comment on any topic that isn’t spam, illegal or offensive. All Your NZ posts are open but this one is for you to raise topics that interest you, or you think may interest others.. 

If providing opinions on or summaries of other information also provide a link to that information. Bloggers are welcome to summarise and link to their posts. Comments worth more exposure may be repeated as posts. Comments from other forums can be repeated here, cut and paste is fine.

Your NZ is a mostly political and social issues blog but not limited to that, and views from anywhere on the political spectrum are welcome. Some ground rules:

  • If possible support arguments, news, points or opinions with links to sources and facts.
  • Please don’t post anything illegal, potentially defamatory or abusive.

FIRST TIME COMMENTERS: Due to abuse by a few, first comments under any ID will park in moderation until released (as soon as possible but it can sometimes take a while).

Sometimes comments will go into moderation or spam automatically due to mistyped ID, too many links (>4), or trigger text or other at risk criteria. If they pass muster they will be released as soon as possible (it can sometimes take hours).

Election night 2020

Voting is over and the counting has begun – actually they began counting advance votes from 9 am today, and with almost 2 million of them having been cast before today (3 October to 16 October) we should get results coming in quite quickly.

Electoral Commission: How are general election votes counted?

Counting votes cast before election day

From 9am on election day, we can count advance votes. We count them at secure electorate headquarters across New Zealand.

Counting votes cast on election day

After voting closes at 7pm, we count ordinary votes. The manager of each voting place opens the voting boxes and counts the party votes and electorate votes.

We publish the preliminary count results as they come in

After 7pm on election night, we enter the preliminary count results into our national election results system. We then publish the results on www.electionresults.govt.nz and give them to the media.

Our target on election night is to have:
– 50% of results available by 10pm
– 95% of results available by 11.30pm.

Official count gives the final election results

We start the official count the day after election day. The chief electoral officer declares the official results 20 days after election day.

We need to allow time for counting the special votes, which can come in up to 10 days after election day.

While it already looks obvious Labour will be in a position to form the next government, we may or may not get to find out tonight how much leverage the Greens have, and whether NZ First might also have a say or will miss the cut.

If we have to wait until special votes are counted it could take a couple of weeks, unless Labour and the greens just decide to go ahead and negotiate a governing arrangement anyway.

There will be some interest around some of the electorates, and there may be one or two left in limbo until special votes are counted, but that is very unlikely to change the overall result.

  • Estimated eligible population: 3,772,100
  • Total enrolled: 3,487,654
  • % enrolled: 92.46%
  • Advance votes: 1,976,996 (last election 1,240,740)
  • % advance votes: 56.69%

Enrolment statistics

Advance voting statistics

Open Forum Saturday

This post is open to anyone to comment on any topic that isn’t spam, illegal or offensive. All Your NZ posts are open but this one is for you to raise topics that interest you, or you think may interest others.. 

If providing opinions on or summaries of other information also provide a link to that information. Bloggers are welcome to summarise and link to their posts. Comments worth more exposure may be repeated as posts. Comments from other forums can be repeated here, cut and paste is fine.

Your NZ is a mostly political and social issues blog but not limited to that, and views from anywhere on the political spectrum are welcome. Some ground rules:

  • If possible support arguments, news, points or opinions with links to sources and facts.
  • Please don’t post anything illegal, potentially defamatory or abusive.

FIRST TIME COMMENTERS: Due to abuse by a few, first comments under any ID will park in moderation until released (as soon as possible but it can sometimes take a while).

Sometimes comments will go into moderation or spam automatically due to mistyped ID, too many links (>4), or trigger text or other at risk criteria. If they pass muster they will be released as soon as possible (it can sometimes take hours).

Message from the Electoral Commission

With so much advance voting the election day laws seem out of date but they are still the law so must be adhered to here.

From midnight Friday until 7pm on Saturday 17 October, you can’t post or share content that’s likely, or intended to influence someone’s candidate, party or referendum vote.

The election day rules make no exemption for the expression of personal political views online.

More details here: Social media

So no comments please that in any way refer to New Zealand politics or the election until 7 pm on election day.

If this is breached comments will be deleted and commenting privileges will be suspended.

Have a nice politics free day, unless of course you are voting, but keep your thoughts to yourself.

Reid Research pre-election poll

I don’t know why Newshub have done a poll this late in the election campaign. They will probably say something like ‘if an election was held today’, but- somewhere around 2 million people are likely to have voted by over the last two weeks. Perhaps they are trying to get as close to the election result as possible for poll bragging rights.

  • Labour 45.8% (down 4.3)
  • National 31.1% (up 1.5)
  • ACT 7.4% (up 1.1)
  • Greens 6.3% (down 0.2)
  • NZ First 3.5% (up 1.6)
  • New Conservatives 1.7% (down 0.4)
  • TOP 1.3% (up 0.4)
  • Maori Party 0.6% (down 0.9)
  • Advance NZ 0.3% (down 0.3)

Polling was done up until yesterday. The last Reid Research poll was done 16-23 September.

Again not a lot of movement or difference from other recent polls.

It still looks like a Labour + Green government, with or without a Labour majority.

NZ First are up a bit but probably too far from the threshold.

Newshub-Reid Research poll shows Labour with slim majority as National makes slight gain

Little change in latest 1 News/Colmar Brunton poll

The latest Colmar Brunton polling was done this week (10-14 October) and with regular recent polling gives us the best idea of support levels and trends, but one of the most notable aspects is there is little change from their last poll.

It clearly confirmed that National+ACT are a long way from challenging, with their combined total 39% – on last night’s debate Judith Collins looked worn out and her body language conceded a demoralising defeat, while Jacinda Ardern looked happy and positive (most of the time).

  • Labour Party: 46% (down 1%)
  • National Party: 31% (down 1%)
  • ACT: 8% (no change)
  • Green Party: 8% (up 2%)
  • New Zealand First: 3% (up 1%)
  • New Conservative: 2% (up 1%)
  • The Opportunities Party: 1% (down 1%)
  • Advance New Zealand: 1% (no change)
  • Māori Party: 1% (up 1%)
  • Don’t know: 7% (down 1%)
  • Refused: 8% (up 3%)

The movements are insignificant, apart perhaps from the Green rise.

Labour is borderline for being able to rule with a majority. It depends on how many small party wasted votes there are – on these numbers about 8% will fail to reach the threshold so 46% is about half of the votes that will count.

It’s really annoying that 1 News only publish results rounded to the nearest whole number (about two days after 1 News publish Colmar Brunton posts more accurate results). This can distort movements of the smaller parties in their news coverage.

NZ First up 1% may look promising for them, but they apparently rose from 2.4% to 2.7%, which statistically is an insignificant change.

It’s worth looking at the last four Colmar Brunton results for the main parties. They have polled weekly 17-21 September, 23-27 September, 3-7 October and 10-14 October.

  • Labour 48, 47, 47, 46
  • National 31, 33, 32, 31
  • ACT 7, 8, 8, 8
  • Greens 6, 7, 6, 8
  • NZ First 2.4, 1.4, 2.4, 2.7

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 55% (up 5%)
  • Judith Collins 20% (down 3%
  • David Seymour 3% (up 1%)
  • Winston Peters 1%

That suggests the Ardern versus Collins aspect of the campaign has worked better for Ardern.

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/1-news-colmar-brunton-poll-labour-maintains-strong-lead-over-national-greens-climb

About 1.7 million votes have already been cast, which is half the total enrolled of 3,436,178

https://elections.nz/stats-and-research/enrolment-statistics/enrolment-by-general-electorate?name=all

Roy Morgan September poll

For some reaason Roy Morgan have just released their poll done through September so in the context of an election campaign it is a bit out of date but may be of interest on the eve of election day (note that about 1.7 million people have already voted).

  • Labour 47.5% (August 48%)
  • National 28.5% (August 28.5%)
  • Greens 9.5% (August 11.5%)
  • ACT 7% (August 6%)
  • NZ First 2.5% (August 2.5%)
  • TOP 1.5% (August 1%)
  • Maori Party 0.5% (August 0.5%)
  • Other 3% (August 2%)

Those results aren’t a lot different to other recent polls, although they have National a bit lower and Greens a bit higher.

Trends seem quite steady (also like other polls):

Government confidence is also quite stable.

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a NZ-wide cross-section of 911 electors during September. Of all electors surveyed 6% (up 0.5%) didn’t name a party. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?

http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8543-nz-national-voting-intention-september-2020-202010142349

Open Forum Friday

This post is open to anyone to comment on any topic that isn’t spam, illegal or offensive. All Your NZ posts are open but this one is for you to raise topics that interest you, or you think may interest others.. 

If providing opinions on or summaries of other information also provide a link to that information. Bloggers are welcome to summarise and link to their posts. Comments worth more exposure may be repeated as posts. Comments from other forums can be repeated here, cut and paste is fine.

Your NZ is a mostly political and social issues blog but not limited to that, and views from anywhere on the political spectrum are welcome. Some ground rules:

  • If possible support arguments, news, points or opinions with links to sources and facts.
  • Please don’t post anything illegal, potentially defamatory or abusive.

FIRST TIME COMMENTERS: Due to abuse by a few, first comments under any ID will park in moderation until released (as soon as possible but it can sometimes take a while).

Sometimes comments will go into moderation or spam automatically due to mistyped ID, too many links (>4), or trigger text or other at risk criteria. If they pass muster they will be released as soon as possible (it can sometimes take hours).