Big election night win for Labour

Labour did 2-3% better than polls suggested and got 49.1% of the advance and election day votes, equating to 64 of 120 seats. Special votes are still to be counted but they shouldn’t change the overall result much, although it may alter total seats won slightly and may change one or two electorate results.

This is a very good result for Labour, the party’s best result since 1946, and is the first time one party has won a majority of seats under 24 years of MMP (while they got just under half the total votes about 8% of votes will not count for small parties who got under the 5% threshold). This unprecedented result is largely thanks to Jacinda Ardern’s popularity, her and the Government’s handling of Covid, and also Grant Robertsons management of the economy to date.

National did 2-5% worse than polls suggested and had a disastrous outcome, having 26.8% of the vote before official counting and specials. The also got hammered in electorates, losing 15 of them, including Gerry Brownlee, Nick Smith and Chris Bishop (they all get in via the list but Brownlee and Smith and a few others must be seriously considering their political futures).

The other parties got results similar to recent polls. One possible explanation for the shift from National to Labour is that a number of normally National supporters voted Labour to increase the chances of Labour getting a sole majority to significantly reduce the leverage of the Green Party.

Notable election night outcomes – Green MP Chloe Swarbrick has also defied polls and currently leads Labour’s Helen White in Auckland Central by 492 votes. If this result stands after the final count it is a major achievement for Swarbrick and the Greens.

And Māori Party candidate Rawiri Waititi is ahead by 415 votes in Waiariki. If this result survives the final count it gets the Māori Party back into Parliament. Tamati Coffey is the only Labour MP to lose his seat (in a Labour landslide) but will keep his job in Parliament via the list.

As expected David Seymour retained Epsom and ACT got 8% of the votes, which means Seymour will be joined by nine other ACT MPS. That’s a big turnaround of ACT fortunes, in part due to Seymour’s sterling efforts and in part due to National’s poor term and leadership turnover.

A few months ago the Green Party looked like they may struggle to make the threshold, but they fought strongly and came out of election night with 7.6% of the vote and 10 MPs, plus the bonus of their first electorate in fifteen years. They will be celebrating, but may also be disappointed that Labour won’t need them to form a government. They are likely to still be included in some form of governing arrangement but won’t anything like the policy leverage holding the balance of power would have given them.

So for now it looks like a five party Parliament.

The polls were right and Winston Peters was wrong. There was no late surge, and NZ First ended up on 2.7%, with Shane Jones a distant third in Northland. Peters looked and often sounded like a last century politician and was dogged by the SFO investigation of donations. Is this the end of Peters as a politician? Is it the end of NZ First? We will have to wait and see.

No small parties came anywhere near the threshold, with only the Maori Party succeeding by winning one electorate (probably) but will get no other MPs.

Full interim results here: 2020 General Election and Referendums – Preliminary Count

David Farrar has put together an interim list of MPs here: The provisional Parliament.

Also of interest from him:

Interesting to see the difference in support between advance and election day results. This makes the polls for Labour and National look even less accurate.


I’m quite happy with this result. Labour have underperformed on things like housing, poverty, social welfare and tax reform and climate change, but did very well dealing with crises, especially the Covid pandemic, and Grant Robertson has managed the economy reasonably well (the full impact of Covid is yet to be seen).

National had a poor term, a bad year dumping two leaders, and a terrible campaign. They were always going to struggle against Ardern but they made a mess of things regardless. They have a lot of soul searching and rebuilding to do over the next three years.

I’m happy to see ACT in as a party rather than a sole MP, and I’m happy to see Greens surviving and in the mix as well, but without too much influence.

I’m very happy to see Chloe Swarbrick and Rawiri Waititi hopefully win electorates. This is good for smaller parties generally, and should serve as a warning to Labour that they didn’t get everything their own way (they showed some arrogance in the Auckland Central campaign).

And I have no problem with Winston Peters and NZ First dropping out of Parliament. While he has done some good things I have never been a fan of Peters, I just don’t like how he does politics.


Electoral Commission: 480,000 special votes to be counted (in 10 days’ time). Voter turnout est. to be 2.88m or 82.5% of those enrolled, cf 79.8% turnout in 2017.

Election night 2020

Voting is over and the counting has begun – actually they began counting advance votes from 9 am today, and with almost 2 million of them having been cast before today (3 October to 16 October) we should get results coming in quite quickly.

Electoral Commission: How are general election votes counted?

Counting votes cast before election day

From 9am on election day, we can count advance votes. We count them at secure electorate headquarters across New Zealand.

Counting votes cast on election day

After voting closes at 7pm, we count ordinary votes. The manager of each voting place opens the voting boxes and counts the party votes and electorate votes.

We publish the preliminary count results as they come in

After 7pm on election night, we enter the preliminary count results into our national election results system. We then publish the results on www.electionresults.govt.nz and give them to the media.

Our target on election night is to have:
– 50% of results available by 10pm
– 95% of results available by 11.30pm.

Official count gives the final election results

We start the official count the day after election day. The chief electoral officer declares the official results 20 days after election day.

We need to allow time for counting the special votes, which can come in up to 10 days after election day.

While it already looks obvious Labour will be in a position to form the next government, we may or may not get to find out tonight how much leverage the Greens have, and whether NZ First might also have a say or will miss the cut.

If we have to wait until special votes are counted it could take a couple of weeks, unless Labour and the greens just decide to go ahead and negotiate a governing arrangement anyway.

There will be some interest around some of the electorates, and there may be one or two left in limbo until special votes are counted, but that is very unlikely to change the overall result.

  • Estimated eligible population: 3,772,100
  • Total enrolled: 3,487,654
  • % enrolled: 92.46%
  • Advance votes: 1,976,996 (last election 1,240,740)
  • % advance votes: 56.69%

Enrolment statistics

Advance voting statistics

Message from the Electoral Commission

With so much advance voting the election day laws seem out of date but they are still the law so must be adhered to here.

From midnight Friday until 7pm on Saturday 17 October, you can’t post or share content that’s likely, or intended to influence someone’s candidate, party or referendum vote.

The election day rules make no exemption for the expression of personal political views online.

More details here: Social media

So no comments please that in any way refer to New Zealand politics or the election until 7 pm on election day.

If this is breached comments will be deleted and commenting privileges will be suspended.

Have a nice politics free day, unless of course you are voting, but keep your thoughts to yourself.

Reid Research pre-election poll

I don’t know why Newshub have done a poll this late in the election campaign. They will probably say something like ‘if an election was held today’, but- somewhere around 2 million people are likely to have voted by over the last two weeks. Perhaps they are trying to get as close to the election result as possible for poll bragging rights.

  • Labour 45.8% (down 4.3)
  • National 31.1% (up 1.5)
  • ACT 7.4% (up 1.1)
  • Greens 6.3% (down 0.2)
  • NZ First 3.5% (up 1.6)
  • New Conservatives 1.7% (down 0.4)
  • TOP 1.3% (up 0.4)
  • Maori Party 0.6% (down 0.9)
  • Advance NZ 0.3% (down 0.3)

Polling was done up until yesterday. The last Reid Research poll was done 16-23 September.

Again not a lot of movement or difference from other recent polls.

It still looks like a Labour + Green government, with or without a Labour majority.

NZ First are up a bit but probably too far from the threshold.

Newshub-Reid Research poll shows Labour with slim majority as National makes slight gain

Little change in latest 1 News/Colmar Brunton poll

The latest Colmar Brunton polling was done this week (10-14 October) and with regular recent polling gives us the best idea of support levels and trends, but one of the most notable aspects is there is little change from their last poll.

It clearly confirmed that National+ACT are a long way from challenging, with their combined total 39% – on last night’s debate Judith Collins looked worn out and her body language conceded a demoralising defeat, while Jacinda Ardern looked happy and positive (most of the time).

  • Labour Party: 46% (down 1%)
  • National Party: 31% (down 1%)
  • ACT: 8% (no change)
  • Green Party: 8% (up 2%)
  • New Zealand First: 3% (up 1%)
  • New Conservative: 2% (up 1%)
  • The Opportunities Party: 1% (down 1%)
  • Advance New Zealand: 1% (no change)
  • Māori Party: 1% (up 1%)
  • Don’t know: 7% (down 1%)
  • Refused: 8% (up 3%)

The movements are insignificant, apart perhaps from the Green rise.

Labour is borderline for being able to rule with a majority. It depends on how many small party wasted votes there are – on these numbers about 8% will fail to reach the threshold so 46% is about half of the votes that will count.

It’s really annoying that 1 News only publish results rounded to the nearest whole number (about two days after 1 News publish Colmar Brunton posts more accurate results). This can distort movements of the smaller parties in their news coverage.

NZ First up 1% may look promising for them, but they apparently rose from 2.4% to 2.7%, which statistically is an insignificant change.

It’s worth looking at the last four Colmar Brunton results for the main parties. They have polled weekly 17-21 September, 23-27 September, 3-7 October and 10-14 October.

  • Labour 48, 47, 47, 46
  • National 31, 33, 32, 31
  • ACT 7, 8, 8, 8
  • Greens 6, 7, 6, 8
  • NZ First 2.4, 1.4, 2.4, 2.7

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 55% (up 5%)
  • Judith Collins 20% (down 3%
  • David Seymour 3% (up 1%)
  • Winston Peters 1%

That suggests the Ardern versus Collins aspect of the campaign has worked better for Ardern.

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/1-news-colmar-brunton-poll-labour-maintains-strong-lead-over-national-greens-climb

About 1.7 million votes have already been cast, which is half the total enrolled of 3,436,178

https://elections.nz/stats-and-research/enrolment-statistics/enrolment-by-general-electorate?name=all

Roy Morgan September poll

For some reaason Roy Morgan have just released their poll done through September so in the context of an election campaign it is a bit out of date but may be of interest on the eve of election day (note that about 1.7 million people have already voted).

  • Labour 47.5% (August 48%)
  • National 28.5% (August 28.5%)
  • Greens 9.5% (August 11.5%)
  • ACT 7% (August 6%)
  • NZ First 2.5% (August 2.5%)
  • TOP 1.5% (August 1%)
  • Maori Party 0.5% (August 0.5%)
  • Other 3% (August 2%)

Those results aren’t a lot different to other recent polls, although they have National a bit lower and Greens a bit higher.

Trends seem quite steady (also like other polls):

Government confidence is also quite stable.

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a NZ-wide cross-section of 911 electors during September. Of all electors surveyed 6% (up 0.5%) didn’t name a party. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?

http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8543-nz-national-voting-intention-september-2020-202010142349

National, Greens may boost Labour vote

National continues to warn of the dangers of a Labour government pushed into implementing radical policies by the Greens, while the Greens keep saying they would push Labour into being ‘bolder’.

This may have the reverse effect to what both parties want – more people voting for Labour to reduce or eliminate Green influence. And going by recent polls there’s a real possibility Labour could get enough votes to either govern alone, or if they choose to govern with a majority but with a weakened Green Party in coalition.

Voting for National will probably do nothing but reduce their embarrassment a bit, they look a long way from challenging Labour even with ACT.

Voting Green will increase the chances of them making the threshold, and if the manage that it will increase the chances of Labour requiring Green support and increase Green leverage in policy negotiations.

ODT: Labour ‘cannot govern alone’: Greens

The Greens are warning their supporters that Labour “cannot govern alone”, and their party is the only one bold enough to meet the challenges New Zealand faces.

And, despite repeated rebuffs by Labour leader Jacinda Ardern, party co-leaders Marama Davidson and James Shaw say a wealth tax is still firmly on the table if Greens negotiate with Labour post-election.

“They can say what they need to in an [election] campaign,” Davidson said when asked about Ardern’s repeated flat-out rejection of the plan.

That keeps feeding National ammunition to attack Labour with, which Judith Collins has been doing.

Davidson said the fact that National has been hammering this policy so hard was a “sign of their desperation”.

“It has become alarmingly clear that the priority of National, and the other smaller parties, is not to keep us safe … but to divide us, and to make us scared, in the pursuit of power,” she said during her speech.

In his speech, Shaw made something of a call to action to his supporters.

“At this election, I can confidently say that the Green Party is the only party putting forward proposals that are actually bold enough to meet the scale of the challenges we face.”

And Davidson took it further: “Labour cannot govern alone.”

“Unchallenged decisions can mean bad decisions, and with the Greens at the decision-making table, we’ll make sure that we truly face the challenges we’ve been ignoring for too long.”

This is a contrast to last election when Greens went out of their way to play down concerns about what influence they might have on Labour in government.

Green survival depends on getting 5%, so they are having to compete with Labour for votes.

Collins has kept trying to hammer Labour, repeatedly insisting that the Green wealth tax would be a certainty. RNZ: Judith Collins says Greens ‘unemployable’ in latest wealth tax attack

Collins has spent much of her time in recent days warning voters about the Greens’ proposed wealth tax, arguing Labour leader Jacinda Ardern would break her promise not to introduce it.

Regardless of National’s position, Ardern says not is not the time for experimental taxes.

“One of the reasons we have ruled out the Green Party policy is because no other country has this form of taxation. Now is not the time to be experimenting with tax policy when we need to focus on our economic recovery.”

Collins would not budge, saying she believed her concerns were very real, and rejecting the claims of desperation.

“No, I think they’re very real … she shouldn’t go into name calling. “

She took her attacks on the Green Party further still, saying the Greens “didn’t really pay taxes before entering Parliament”.

“Well, most of them are unemployable I always thought. The whole lot of them. Don’t mean to be nasty but there we go, it’s the truth.”

She says having co-leader Marama Davidson as deputy prime minister “would be challenging for the country”.

The role of Deputy Prime Minister has no more power than any other Minister. All they have to do is occasionally fill in for the Prime Minister. Winston Peters did it this term and simply carried out a caretaker role. He had far more power in coalition negotiations.

I’m not a fan of Davidson at all, but I have no concerns with her becoming Deputy PM.

There is also one MP who is still supporting Collins:

But that’s false. Voting National instead of Labour would increase the chances of Greens having more influence. Voting Labour instead of National is the most effective way of reducing Green influence.

UMR poll

I can’t find any reference to the polling period, but a UMR poll is being circulated. It is quite similar to the most recent UMR poll 25 August – 2 September on Opinion polling for the 2020 New Zealand general election (result in brackets):

  • Labour 50% (53%)
  • National 29% (29%)
  • Act 7% (6.2%)
  • Greens 6% (3.2%)
  • NZ First 2.7% (3.9%)

The only significant change (upwards) is for the Greens.

Here’s the latest trend chart that doesn’t include this poll (but it will make little difference):

So it looks very good for Labour and Act, borderline for Greens, bad for National and terminal for NZ First.

Up until Monday 1,282,478 people had voted so it would take a massive disaster or miracle to change things much now.

Long campaign but still a fairly predictable outcome

The election campaign was extended due to Covid lockdown, and seems to be dragging out, but little seems to have changed in party support over the last few months.

Recent polls have been fairly stable, and with over 1.1 million advance votes already cast it looks very unlikely there will be any major swings in support in the last few days of the campaign.

Labour look like coasting to victory after a cautious campaign. They didn’t have to do much to maintain a big lead, and they haven’t done much. The only question seems to be whether they will get enough votes to be able to rule alone or not, and if they do whether they do whether they will take on a coalition partner (Greens).

Jacinda Ardern and by association Labour have received a lot of praise for their handling of the Covid pandemic, and Ardern has campaigned hard and adeptly on that record.

Greens are still fighting hard for every vote, which they may need to make the 5% threshold, but they aren’t offering anything compelling to voters. Labour have done their best to diffuse any leverage Greens may hope to have. Labour may or may not need the Greens to form a Government, but going by what Labour are saying that may make little difference to policies negotiated.

NZ First look rejected, polling between 1.4% and 2.5% over the last six months. Winston Peters is trying but looks far from confidence – he most often looks grumpy, and has offered little apart from promising to stop Labour doing things. It’s possible all the polls are wrong as Peters always claims, but even if NZ First sneak in over the threshold there is little incentive for Labour to form another coalition with them unless they really have to.

National have had a difficult year, changing leaders twice. They has also have a poor campaign, with Judith Collins failing to make much impression against Ardern, a series of sloppy policy announcements, and electorate MPs putting their own jobs head of the good of the party, sometimes poorly. National seem to have recovered a bit after plummetting to polling in the twenties, but now look stuck in the low thirties. There’s been nothing in their campaign to suggest they deserve moore than that,

ACT have had a good year and a good campaign. Last year they polled mostly less than 1% and just started to rise at the end of the year, rising to 1.6%. They have kept improving through this year, with their last two poll results being 8%. Even if they drop back a bit they will still have a very good result, jumping from 1 MP to 5-10 MPs.

National look to be in a hopeless situation. Even with ACT they are barely getting into the forties, a long way short of Labour. Some wishful thinkers have been saying ‘if Labour drop 5% and National jump 5% it’s all on’ but that looks very unlikely, especially with National lurching from mistake to embarrassment.

What if NZ First defy the polls and make the threshold? National have ruled out doing a deal with Peters, and while Peters has defied pre-election indications in the past it would be aa huge stretch even for him to now form a coalition with National, let alone National+ACT.

So most likely we will have a Labour+Green government next term, with Labour exerting dominance shown already though the campaign. Or possibly a Labour alone Government. It would be a major shock if the result is outside these possibilities.

But…

There is an outside chance the Maori Party manage to pull off one or two surprise wins in Maori electorates. Polls suggest they are close in some – probably not close enough, but Maori voters have been generally much better at tactical voting than the rest.

Labour+Greens+Maori would likely help Labour dominate.

But Labour+Maori would make an interesting coalition. It may embolden the Labour Maori caucus.

Advance NZ failing to advance

Advance NZ, the umbrella party set up by independent MP Jami-Lee Ross to try to benefit from social media popularity of Billy Te Kahika, looks like it has fizzled well short of the 5% threshold, and Te Kahika looks to be a long way from challenging in the Te Tai Tokerau electorate.

The party has only featured in three party poll results – 0.8, 0.6 and 1 (rounded). If they won an electorate at those levels they would get no more seats off the list, but there chances of winning an electorate look very slim.

Māori News: A third of the North undecided – Te Tai Tokerau poll results

Following the pattern of the other Māori electorate polls so far, the incumbent is leading as the preferred candidate for Te Tai Tokerau electorate.

Curia Market Research polled 500 people…

  • Kelvin Davis (Labour) 36%
  • Mariameno KapaKingi (Māori Party) 18%
  • Undecided 32%
  • Other 7%
  • Billy Te Kahika 1%

As is common Advance NZ are banking on all undecideds voting for them, but this rarely happens. The voter turnout in 2017 was 69.4%, so about 30% didn’t decide then.

Ross chose to not stand in Botany where he is the current MP (he was elected as a National candidate), so Te Tai Tokerau and the threshold are the only chances for Advance NZ, but they look a long way from either.

Te Kahika has excited a few thousand enthusiastic supporters but it takes at least 130,000 to make the 5% threshold and they look nowhere near that level of support.