Roy Morgan June poll

The June 2017 poll from Roy Morgan is ok for most parties,with the notable exception of Labour.

  • National 46.5% (up from 43)
  • Labour 25.5% (down from 28.5)
  • Greens 14% (no change)
  • NZ First 9% (down from 10)
  • Maori Party 1.5% (no change)
  • ACT Party 1% (up from 0.5)
  • United Future 0% (no change)
  • Mana Party 0.5% (down from 1)
  • Conservatives 0% (no change)
  • Other 2% (up from 1.5)

TOP will be included in Other.

It is looking promising for the Maori Party to pick up a list seat or two if they don’t get any more electorates.

National have bounced back from three lows in a row. Perhaps the budget helped.

Labour are back down to about the same level of support as their terrible election result.

BUT: the polling period was 29 May to 11 June so it doesn’t cover the big hiccups for both National and Labour this week.

The next two or three polls will be interesting but it might be a while before we get any more.

http://www.roymorgan.com/~/media/files/findings%20pdf/2017/june/7259-nz-national-voting-intention-june-2017.pdf

Poll good for ACT in Epsom

David Seymour has a comfortable lead in an ACT poll on the Epsom electorate:

  • David Seymour (ACT) 46%
  • Paul Goldsmith (National) 30%
  • David Parker (Labour) 11%
  • Julie Anne Genter (Greens) 11%

These are all close to within margin of error range of the 2014 election result.

From ACT:  David Seymour comfortably ahead in Epsom poll

A recent Curia poll conducted of 750 voters (+/- 3.5% margin of error), in the Epsom electorate from 21-28 May shows incumbent Epsom MP and ACT Party Leader, David Seymour, ahead with a strong 16-point lead.

When asked “With your electorate vote, which of these candidates would you vote to be the electorate MP for Epsom”, David Seymour led on 46 per cent of decided voters, with National’s Paul Goldsmith on 30 per cent, and both Labour’s David Parker and Green’s Julie-Anne Genter* following on 11 per cent.

*Since the poll was conducted, the Green Party have nominated Barry Coates as the Epsom candidate.

That’s a handy lead for Seymour at this stage. I think he’s done well this term to come from nowhere to establish a profile in Wellington and presumably in Epsom, and to at least stop the rot in the ACT Party.

He wasn’t well known in 2014 but won Epsom, with some help from National.

  • David Seymour (ACT) 43.08%
  • Paul Goldsmith (National) 31.61%
  • Michael Wood (Labour) 9.36%
  • Julie Anne Genter (Greens) 8.15%

Michael Wood has since won the Mt Roskill by-election. Interesting to see David Parker standing for Labour again, he stood there in 2011 and got 10.45% of the vote.

Julie Anne Genter stood in the Mt Albert by-election earlier this year and that is listed as her electorate on the Green website so I presume she is staying there.

There’s a bit of musical chairs going on. Barry Coates stood in Mt Roskill last election against Phil Goff, getting 5.04% of the electorate vote.

With Epsom looking likely for Seymour he is looking at trying to lift the ACT party vote.

“This poll result is important, as it shows that every party vote for ACT will count. Only a Party vote for ACT will keep Winston Peters out of power and ensure a stable centre–right government for the next three years.”

Another ACT MP or two could make a difference.

ACT push this in their latest Free Press – 19/06/2017:

EVERY PARTY VOTE FOR ACT WILL COUNT
Germany has had MMP for 70 years, but it is reported to be even less well understood there than here. The lesson is that ACT must constantly remind supporters how our convoluted voting system works. If ACT wins Epsom then the party does not need to meet the five per cent threshold. 1.3 per cent of the party vote will elect a second MP.

ACT AS CRITICAL TO THE OUTCOME AS EVER
The latest public poll, from Newshub, has ACT at 0.9 per cent of the vote, and the current governing parties of ACT, National, United Future, and the Māori Party with a majority of one. ACT picking up an extra seat could be definitive to the election outcome. There are many reasons the socialists hate ACT and chief among them is that we keep on keeping them out of Government. 1998 (when the Bolger coalition imploded), 2008, 2011, 2014, and 2017 to come.

AIMING HIGHER
1.3 per cent would get ACT another MP, but 2.1 would get us three. 2.8 per cent would get us four, and 3.5 would get us five. ACT’s current polling is comparable to the same point in the cycle during 2008, when five MPs were elected. Electing five MPs would give the kind of leverage ACT enjoyed in that parliamentary term.

In August 2008 ACT was polling 0.6-2.3%. They got 3.65% in the election (Rodney Hide was their successful Epsom candidate).

In August 2011 ACT was polling 1.1-2.2%. They got 1.07% in the election (John Banks was their successful Epsom candidate)

In June 2014 ACT was polling 0.7-1.0%. They got 0.69% in the election.

Seymour was able to concentrate on campaigning in Epsom while party leader Jamie Whyte campaigned for the party nationally, but had trouble connecting.

This year Seymour will have to split his time and efforts between Epsom and national campaigning. Success with ACT’s party vote will also depend on which other candidates ACT can come up with.

Labour poll different

Labour are emailing internal polls results to their mailing list that show a quite different result to the Newshub/Reid Research poll that was published yesterday.

I’ve just got our latest poll numbers in, and I wanted to share them with you first.

Here’s the breakdown:

  • Labour: 32%
  • Greens: 13%
  • National: 42%
  • New Zealand First: 9%

While this latest poll puts us and the Greens collectively ahead of National, last night, another poll had us at 26% – short of being able to form a government.

It shows just how volatile polls are and how close this election is going to be.

And while our latest poll numbers show we are up, it’s looking like we won’t meet our online fundraising target this month – meaning we might not have enough funds to run the campaign we’ve planned to win.

Right now we really need to keep our momentum up. That momentum relies on the vital funds thousands of generous supporters like you contribute to our campaign. We need to invest in more advertising, more rallies, more volunteer organisers and build our campaign now – if we don’t, we risk losing our gains.

The latest June 2017 Newshub/Reid Research poll was:

  • National 47.4%
  • Labour 26.4%
  • Greens 12.5%
  • NZ First 9.4%

That’s quite different. What Labour (Andrew Kirton) didn’t specify was when their poll was conducted, what the sample size was, what the questions asked were, and the margin of error was.

Polls will vary but Labour’s poll is quite different to the last two public polls.

It’s also worth pointing out Labour have twice in the last few months released their internal poll results, but most of the time they don’t, so it’s not possible to compare trends.

Newshub/Reid Research poll

The latest (June 2017) Newshub/Reid Research poll:

  • National 47.4% (up from 47.1)
  • Labour 26.4% (down from 30.6)
  • Greens 12.5% (up from 11.2)
  • NZ First 9.4% (up from 7.6)

Everybody will be happy enough with that three months out from the election, except for Labour.

Newshub is promoting:

But NZ First has been higher in other polls.

That doesn’t look flash for Labour either. It’s the lowest Little has been in a Newshub/RR poll.

Newshub’s headline:  Labour crumbles, falling towards defeat

Their last poll was in March: Newshub poll – Ardern surges

Something in the water

There must be something odd in the water at Newshub. Just because they polled on water royalties they claim that it could be a “major election issue”.

They are trying to make a major headline issue out of something they plucked out of the water.

Newshub poll: 87pct say charge royalties on water

The exporting of New Zealand water looks likely to be a major election issue.

The latest Newshub-Reid Research poll shows 87 percent of New Zealanders are unhappy that exporters are able to obtain the water for next-to-nothing then send it offshore for big profits.

Water consents are very cheap – and profits are big.

This is more like agenda promotion rather than an unbiased poll report.

The numbers on ‘Should water bottling companies pay a royalty?’

  • Yes 87%
  • No 9%
  • Don’t know 4%

This is hardly a surprising result. And the Newshub over flavouring of the water debate is not surprising either.

They trotted out comments by opposition MPs James Shaw and David Parker, and found an ‘ordinary person’ neighbouring a Chinese owned water bottling plant who doesn’t like it.

This is blatant making a story to promote a poll result by Newshub – trying to make an issue out of something that most people probably barely care about let alone would base their vote on.

They don’t seem to have polled on “Would you be happy to pay a royalty on the water you use?”

Neither does there seem to be a poll on “Would you prefer that Newshub reported more on things that actually matter?”

The Newshub-Reid Research poll was conducted June 2-12. 1000 people were surveyed, 750 by telephone and 250 by internet panel. It has a margin of error of 3.1 percent.

Ardern bubble burst

Jacinda Ardern’s promotion to Labour’s deputy leadership and her campaigning alongside Andrew Little was touted by some as a game changer by some, and Ardern seemed to bump up in popularity, but her party remained unmoved and she seemed to disappear from the lime light.

Whether Ardern’s fading from view has caused it or was because of it, her popularity has declined in Newshub’s latest poll – Jacinda Ardern’s popularity plummets

‘Plummet’ is a bit over dramatic, but it is a significant change. Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Andrew Little 7% (down from 8.3%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 6.6% (down from 10.5%)

Andrew Little’s decline barely rates a mention as the rest of the article is about Ardern and her latest magazine cover promotion.

The poll result comes the same day as Ms Ardern graces the front cover of Nextmagazine, where she opens up about the toll her new role is taking on her private life and her mental health.

“I do live in constant fear of what might be. Clarke really tries to pull me back from the precipice of anxiety a lot, but it’s just who I am,” she says.

That sounds like even deputy leadership is not really her thing, at this stage at least. It is unlikely to help Labour’s election chances.

That seems to be the only poll results Newshub has released so far, no mention of Bill English and Winston Peters ratings. I guess they will drip feed into several stories to maximise the headlines from some fairly boring numbers.

The Newshub-Reid Research poll was conducted June 2-12. 1000 people were surveyed, 750 by telephone and 250 by internet panel. It has a margin of error of 3.1 percent.

Issues facing the US

The numbers for Issues facing country today “extremely” or “very” concerned:

  • Government spending 80%
  • Economy 75%
  • Infrastructure 75%
  • War with North Korea 68%
  • Terrorist attacks 67%
  • Job market 65%
  • Russian meddling 61%
  • Climate change 60%
  • Illegal immigration 51%

That’s interesting to see a clear majority concerned about ‘Russian meddling’ and ‘climate change’.

1 News-Colmar Brunton poll June 2017

The latest 1 News-Colmar Brunton poll:

  • National 49% (up from 46)
  • Labour 30% (no change)
  • Greens 9% (down from 11)
  • NZ First 9% (up from 8)
  • Maori Party 1% (down from 4)
  • ACT 1% (no change)
  • TOP 1% (up from 0)
  • Undecided 12%
  • Refused to answer 4%

Field work conducted 27-31 May.

Labour+Greens at 39% is 10% behind National alone, that’s another game changer that doesn’t seem to have changed much at this stage.

Labour+Greens+NZ First at 48% is marginally behind National.

There could be a post-budget bounce here for National but Labour and Greens will be worried and/or frustrated.

TOP will be happy to at least have registered but this isn’t as good for them as the recent (but unproven) Listener poll.

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Bill English 29% (up from 26)
  • Andrew Little 8% (up from 7)
  • Winston Peters 7% (down from 9)
  • Jacinda Ardern 6%

English has gone up, Little also but barely. The Ardern bubble seems to have burst a bit.

Are the budget tax changes good for the country?

  • Yes 44%
  • No 30%
  • Don’t know 16%
  • Haven’t heard about them 10%

Colmar Brunton in 2014:

2014 Colmar Brunton polls for National:

  • 22–26 March 2014 – 47%
  • 17–21 May 2014 – 51%
  • 21–25 June 2014 – 50%
  • 19–23 July 2014 – 52%
  • 9–13 August 2014 – 50%
  • 23–27 August 2014 – 48%
  • 30 August – 3 September 2014 – 50%
  • 13–17 September 2014 – 45%

Election result: 47.04%

Labour:

  • 22–26 March 2014 – 31%
  • 17–21 May 2014 – 30%
  • 21–25 June 2014 – 29%
  • 19–23 July 2014 – 28%
  • 9–13 August 2014 – 26%
  • 23–27 August 2014 – 28%
  • 30 August – 3 September 2014 – 25%
  • 13–17 September 2014 – 25%

Election result: 25.13%

Trump approval largely unmoved

Donald Trump claimed that his trip to the Middle East and Europe, which included a G7 meeting in Italy, was very successful, but it highlighted a divide that seems to be growing between the US and Europe.

Last week Trump also announced that the US would withdraw from the Paris climate accord. This was a largely symbolic move but it was widely criticised.

Both the overseas trip and the climate change withdrawal indicated that the US under Trump’s leadership was focussing more on it’s own interests and less on world leadership.

However Trump’s poll approval ratings are so far largely unmoved. Rasmussen, which tends to favour Trump more than others has shifted for him a little, but is still on 54% disapproval to 46% approval.

The RCP average has more or less flat lined since dropping in mid May at around 40% approval to 54% disapproval.

RCPApproval2017-06-04

His approval ratings improved a little when Trump launched a missile attack in Syria and talked and acted tough militarily in the US spat with North Korea but he has lost those gains over the last month.

Trump continues to try to communicate to supporters via Twitter but that seems to have little impact on how people judge his performance.

 

 

UK polls

 

Some UK polls via Twitter: