UMR poll: National bottomed out

The latest UMR poll suggests that big National’s slide may have ended, getting 30%. They were still polling in the forties in February before Covid struck but slid to 29-30 in three polls, and in the latest (Roy Morgan in late May) they got just 26.5%,

And for now at least, and Todd Muller has at least got higher approval than Simon Bridges had. It’s early days for Muller’s leadership, and his first week was not flash and he was dumped on by media, but he at least has a chance to build on some support.

  • Labour 54% (down marginally from 55% in April)
  • National 30% (up marginally from 29% in April)
  • NZ First 5% (down from 6%)
  • Greens 4% (down from 5%)
  • ACT may be 2.5%

No result reported for ACT or parties not in Parliament (but a social media mention of the ACT result).

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 65% (no change)
  • Todd Muller 13%

The April UMR poll had Bridges on 7% so Muller and National may feel a bit of vindication for changing the leadership.

The poll of 1211 voters was taken from May 26 to June 1 and has a margin of error of +/-3%.

UMR polls are private polls (paid for by Labour and corporate clients) but have been more often leaked when they have been favourable to Labour and bad for National

Source ODT/NZ Herald (with a stupid headline, the situation now is very different too when).

Roy Morgan poll – Labour 56.5%, National 26.5%

Roy Morgan stopped publishing monthly polls in New Zealand after the 2017 election but they have started again, and the news remains grim for National.

This is the first poll they have published this year but they have previous month comparisons – their detailed results show polling each month this year.

If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”

  • Labour 56.5% (January 40%, March 42.5%, April 55%)
  • National 26.5% (January 40%, March 37 %, April 30.5%)
  • Greens 7% (January 10.5%, March 11.5%, April 7%)
  • NZ First 2.5% (January 7.2%, March 3%, April 2.5%)
  • ACT Party 3.5% (January 0.5%, March 3.5%, April 2.5%)
  • Maori Party 1.5% (April 1.5%)
  • The Opportunities Party 1% (April 0.5%)

Labour is very similar to recent Colmar Brunton and Reid Research results, but Natiional has trended down a bit more. This is their lowest result for a long time.

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is at a very high 158.5 in May, down 4.5pts from the record high of 163 reached in April

76% of New Zealand electors (down 1% since April) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to only 17.5% (up 3.5%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a NZ wide cross-section of 894 electors during April 27 – May 24, 2020. Of all electors surveyed 5.5% (down 0.5%) didn’t name a party.

https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8429-nz-national%20-voting-intention-may-2020-202006010651


While this result doesn’t look good for new national leader Todd Muller, it is too soon to tell what effect he has had on National’s popularity – the polling period was to 24 May and Muller only took over on 22 May.

Another awful poll for National (and great for Labour)

Today’s 1 News/Colmar Brunton poll is bad news for National, and very similar to the Newshub/Reid Research poll out earlier this week and also a recent leaked UMR poll:

  • Labour 59%
  • National 29%
  • Greens 4.7%
  • NZ First 3 %
  • ACT 2%
  • Maori Party 1%
  • The Opportunities Party 1%

Refused to answer 5%, undecided 11%. Fieldwork conducted 16-20 May.

The ‘preferred Prime Minister was as bad (and exceptional for Ardern):

  • Jacinda Ardern 63% (+21 from last October))
  • Simon Bridges 5% (-6)
  • Judith Collins 3%
  • Winston Peters 1% (-2)
  • Nikki Kaye 0.4%
  • Todd Muller 0.2%

Notable also is that both Greens and NZ First are under the threshold, and Peters is also dropping to negligible ‘preferred’.

So Labour very strong, Act ok (if Seymour can hold Epsom), Greens in the danger zone and NZ First/Peters really struggling.

Of course tomorrow’s National leadership showdown adds importance to this result.

David Farrar very quick off the mark with the poll results but no commentary: Latest poll
(but his Curia poll average hasn’t been updated for three months).

And Greg at The Standard was ready to rumble: The Colmar Brunton poll

Pressure mounts for National and NZ First, Greens still bordeline

The latest Reid Research poll may well be the best result that Labour and Jacinda Ardern get unless the transition out of lockdown and getting the economy up and running again goes smoothly.

But with National on 30% and Simon bridges dropping to 4.5% as preferred Prime Minister the pressure continues to build over leadership, and also for survival for many National MPs.

If National drop to around 30% in the election in September they are unlikely to get any list MPs back into Parliament, and their may be an overhang with their electorate MPs possibly adding up to more than their MMP proportion of votes.

Bridges has sometimes seemed ok but often comes across poorly. The key reason why there are not challengers queueing up is that no one else wants to become leader facing likely defeat.

However the risk with keeping Bridges on is that he could drag National down further, which would be bad for list MPs and MPs in marginal electorates wanting to keep their jobs.


NZ First have not polled over 5% this year in published polls, and slipped to 2.7% in the latest.

Winston Peters hasn’t even featured on ‘preferred Prime Minister’ coverage of the latest poll.

It’s unwise to count NZ First out before an election but they have been dumped before while in Government, in 2008. Each recovery mission must be getting harder for Peters and riskier for his party.

With Labour polling over 50% they wouldn’t need NZ First even if the latter survives the election. Challenging times for Peters.


Greens made the cut, just, getting 5.5%, but they have been struggling to keep over the threshold in polls and they are openly struggling to get donations.

Labour’s popularity may benefit the Greens as long as it doesn’t suck oxygen and support from the minor party.

Not having a single strong and prominent leader works against the Greens beyond their core of dedicated supporters.

And on current polling Labour wouldn’t need the Greens to form a Government. Even if they formed a coalition the Greens are likely to be in a weak bargaining position.


A lot could happen over they next four months, and political support can evaporate as quickly as it can build.

But as Covid continues to dominate the news and public attention, and as Ardern continues to receive adulation and deserved praise, voters may ignore the inadequacies of some of her ministers and keep dishing out support.

National came close but always failed to get enough votes to rule alone under MMP.

In the current circumstances and with current levels of support Labour and Ardern look to be in the strongest position of any party to win a majority alone.

91.6% supported Level 4 lockdown

One of the more interesting results from the Newshub/Reid Research poll:

The Government put the country into level 4 lockdown for four weeks. Do you think this was the right call?

  • Yes 91.6%
  • No 6%
  • Don’t know 2.5%

The poll was conducted between 8-16 May with half of the responses taken after the Budget.
The poll has a maximum sample error of +/- 3.1 percent.  

The polling was done after the level 4 lockdown had finished. This suggests near universal support for playing safe health-wise.

Interesting poll but it’s not an election

Newshub/Reid Research poll:

  • Labour 56.5%
  • National 30.6%
  • Greens 5.5%
  • NZ First 2.7%
  • ACT 1.8%
  • Maori Party 0.9%
  • Conservatives 1.0%

Movement from the last Reid Research poll (23 Jan – 1 Feb 2020) is pretty much meaningless due to the changed  circumstances and extraordinary time situation.

This result isn’t really much of a surprise, there have been ‘internal’ polls with similar results recently – a UMR poll 21-27 April had Labour on 55%, National on 29%, Greens 5% and NZ First 6%.

The poll was conducted between 8-16 May with half of the responses taken after the Budget.
The poll has a maximum sample error of +/- 3.1 percent.  

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 59.5%
  • Simon Bridges 4.5%
  • Judith Collins 3.1%
  • Winston Peters not mentioned

Past results for the current term:  Opinion polling for the 2020 New Zealand general election

A lot could change over the next four months.

David Farrar must have known what was coming, pointing out that incumbent Governments and leaders usually poll very well during a crisis (even Donald Trump has improved a little) – see Polls during a crisis.

Many heads of governments are also getting good ratings specifically for their response to Covid-19. The percentage who approve of their response is Angela Merkel 75%, Boris Johnson 70%, Justin Trudeau 64%.

There’s quite a bit of carping in NZ about Scott Morrison, but his net approval has shot up 46%.

But big swings in a crisis can be short lived – Boris Johnson’s approval rating plummets nine points over bungled first week of easing out of lockdown

The poll found some 39 per cent of the nation are supportive of the Government’s handling of the coronavirus crisis, down nine points on the 48 per cent recorded a week ago.

Meanwhile, those saying they disapproved of the Government rose from 36 per cent last week to 42 per cent.

Was the lockdown the right call?

 

Newshub poll reports:

A hard to ignore leaked poll: Labour 55%, National 29%

The bottom line for a UMR poll (warning – leaked private poll) conducted between 21-27 April as we approached the end of the Level 4 lockdown:

  • Labour 55%
  • National 29%
  • NZ First 6%
  • Greens 5%
  • ACT 3%

(But RNZ have NZF and Greens swapped: “It has polled the Green Party at 6%, New Zealand First on 5%”)

With NZ First and Greens on similar levels to other recent polls this suggests a big chunk of ex-national supporters have swung to Labour, but at the same time ACT has improved.

This looks grim for National, and it’s no wonder the talk of Simon Bridges and leadership has ramped up lately.

There’s a lot that can happen before the election with Covid and the economy, but it’s a big challenge for National to turn this around without changing their approach or their leader.

Also Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 65%
  • Simon Bridges 7%
  • Judith Collins 7%
  • Winston Peters 3%

If a Labour activist could make up a poll result that was sort of credible but great for Labour and terrible for National it would look something like this, but all they have had to do is leak their actual poll. There have been similar numbers mentioned over the past couple of weeks.

NZ Herald: A leaked poll shows National has dropped below 30 per cent, and Labour at 55 per cent

But speaking to the Herald, Bridges rubbished the poll.

“UMR are Labour’s pollsters and are consistently, badly wrong.”

He added that Labour “should be focused on getting New Zealand back to work, not leaking dodgy numbers”.

But this is a big pig of a revelation for National, and Bridges is rough at applying lipstick.

Polling under 30 per cent is a huge psychological barrier for National and means many of their current list MPs would lose their jobs at this year’s election.

It wasn’t long ago that 40% would have been seen as pretty bad for National.

And perhaps more good news for the Government – the poll shows that 78 per cent of New Zealanders believe the country is heading in the right direction.

The number of people saying New Zealand is on the right track hasn’t been this high on a UMR poll since 1991.

“This can again only be attributed to a rallying around in a national crisis and a related current confidence in the government steps taken to combat Covid-19,” UMR said in its commentary.”

Again, things could change, but I expect this poll will be in a post at The Standard very quickly and not so fast at Kiwiblog.

NOTE:

  1. As far as it’s possible to determine I think that Labour’s internal polls conducted by UMR have tended to favour Labour.
  2. Leaked polls should always be viewed with some suspicion but more details seem to have been made available this time to media.
  3. At a time of crisis with a Government generally seen to be managing things well it is going to benefit, and the Opposition is likely to not benefit

UPDATE: The Standard posted on this an hour and a half ago – UMR’s bombshell poll result

By my count National have 39 electorate MPs and 18 list MPs. If they got 29% in the election they would not get enough MPs to get any list MPs, there would be an overhang of a few MPs.

I can imagine a few list MPs will be getting a bit nervous about their futures – like Paul Goldsmith, Michael Woodhouse, Alfred Ngaro, Melissa Lee, Juan Yang, Brett Hudson, Nicola Willis etc

High public approval of NZ Government handling of Covid-19 pandemic

Colmar Brunton polling shows strong public support for the Government handling of the Covid-19 pandemic, with 87% of people saying the approve or strongly approve, with only 9% disapproving.

A poll was done from 3-5 April after the Level 4 lockdown had started, and another has been done from 20-21 April, after the move to Level 3 lockdown was announced on Monday.

The latest poll: How much do you approve or disapprove of how your Government is responding to the Covid-19 pandemic?

  • Strongly approve 68% (up from 55%)
  • Somewhat approve 19% (down from 29%)
  • Total approve 87% (up from 84%)
  • Somewhat disapprove 5% (down from 6%
  • Strongly disapprove 3% (no change)
  • Total disapprove 8% (down from 9%)
  • Neither approve nor disapprove 4% (down from 6%)
  • Don’t know 1% (up from 0)

Colmar Brunton, Margin of error +/- 4%
The poll was conducted via 601 online interviews with New Zealanders over the age of 18 between April 20 and 21.

Stuff: The Government’s Covid-19 lockdown measures have overwhelming public support, according to a poll

Colmar Brunton pollster Edward Langley said New Zealand seemed to be seeing “something special” in the number of new Covid-19 cases each day.

“People feel there’s light there at the end of the tunnel which other nations haven’t seen”.

“I think we are seeing something special. We are setting aside our party political affiliations and we’re getting behind the Government”.

New Zealand support is much higher than G7 countries:

  • Average for G7 countries 50% support their Government (down from 54% two weeks ago)
  • Canada 74% support
  • France 43% (down from 61%)
  • USA 46% support (down from 52%)

France continues with a high death rate currently running at over 500 deaths per day.

USA has the highest total cases (866,148) and deaths (48,868). Deaths increased by 2,341 yesterday. Support there is dropping along with President Trumps approval (and he is publicly arguing with one of his top health officials again today).

One News/Colmar Brunton poll – February 2020

The first One News/Colmar Brunton poll of the year hasn’t moved much, but on these numbers National+ACT could probably form a government.

Greens have moved towards the danger zone and NZ First slips further under the threshold.

  • National 46% (no change)
  • Labour 41% (up 1)
  • Greens 5% (down 1)
  • NZ First 3% (down 1)
  • ACT 2% (no change)
  • Maori Party 1% (no change)
  • New Conservatives 1% (no change)

Those are rounded to whole numbers so the small party results in particular are very approximate.

Polling ran through last week which included Simon Bridges ruling out doing anything with NZ First this election, and the Waitangi Day/week political manouvering.

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 42% (up 6)
  • Simon Bridges 11% (up 1)
  • Judith Collins 3% (down 1)
  • Winston Peters 3% (no change)
  • Don’t know 30%

Economic outlook

  • Optimism 40% (Up 4%)
  • Pessimism 34% (Down 1%)

Between February 8 to 12, 1004 eligible voters were polled by landline (402) and mobile phone (602). The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level.

For party support, percentages have been rounded up or down to whole numbers.

The data has been weighted to align with Stats NZ population counts for age, gender, region, ethnic identification and mobile or landline access. 

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/1-news-colmar-brunton-poll-national-and-act-hold-numbers-form-government

1 News Colmar Brunton poll – December 2019

What is likely to be the last political poll of the year, from 1 News/Colmar Brunton, has national in a strong position, and ACT rewarded for David Seymour’s work on the End of Life Choice Bill.

  • National 46% (down 1)
  • Labour 39% (down 1)
  • Greens 7% (no change)
  • NZ First 4% (no change)
  • ACT 2% (up 1)
  • The Opportunities Party 1%
  • New Conservatives 1%
  • Maori Party 1%

Don’t know or refused to answer – 17%

(Results rounded to the nearest whole number so small party results and movements can be exaggerated) .

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 36% (down 2)
  • Simon Bridges 10% (up 1)
  • Judith Collins 4% (up 1)
  • Winston Peters 3% (down 1)

Between November 23-27, 1006 eligible voters were polled by landline (504) and mobile phone (502). The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level. The data has been weighted to align with Stats NZ population counts.

Recent polls charted here: http://www.polled.co.nz/