Northland electorate may be lost saviour for NZ First

With NZ First polling well below the 5% threshold (except in Winston’s claimed but never revealed polls) an alternative way of keeping them in Parliament is for Shane Jones to win the Northland electorate.

Jones has actually said that if voters want NZ First back in Parliament they should vote for him in Northland. But he has never yet won an electorate (this is the third he has stood in).

And a 1 News/Colmar Brunton poll on Northland doesn’t look promising for Jones or NZ First.

Candidate votes in the 2017 election:

  • Matt King 38.30%
  • Winston Peters 34.81%
  • Willow-Jean Prime 21.61%

Jones has puled out of a Q+A interview this morning saying he had another engagement after previously committing to the interview.

Interesting to see National (41%) close to Labour (38%) on the party polling there – that looks ok for National compared to recent polls, but it isn’t flash compared to the 2017 election result:

  • National 46.35%
  • Labour 30.12%
  • NZ First 13.17%
  • Greens 6.05%
  • Conservatives 0.37%
  • ACT 0.47%

NZ First party vote is well down on that at 7%, and they are headed off by ACT jumping to a remarkable 8%.

Roy Morgan party poll – July 2020

Roy Morgan have just published their July poll results (polling through July so already a bit dated). These are quite similar to the Reid Research results (16-24 July) that National claimed to be a ‘rogue’ poll, and are different to the more recent Colmar Brunton poll (25-29 July).

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”

  • Labour 53.5% (down 1)
  • National 26.5% (down 0.5)
  • Greens 8% (down 1)
  • ACT 6.5% (up 1.5)
  • Others 4.0%
  • NZ First 1.5% (no change)
  • The Opportunities Party 1.5% (no change)
  • Maori Party 0.5% (down 0.5)

Again, most polling was done before the Colmar Brunton poll in late July that appeared to show a bit of a National recovery, but confirms they have been well off the pace since the Covid pandemic struck and since Todd Muller took over leadership from Simon Bridges. It will reflect some leadership change and Boag/Walker/Falloon effects, but is too soon to show much if any Judith Collins effect.

New Zealand Party Vote

That still looks great for Labour and grim for National.

And it is worse for NZ First who are well adrift of the 5% threshold (Q+A will release a poll on the Northland electorate tomorrow which will give an indication whether Shane Jones has any chance there).

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a NZ wide cross-section of 899 electors during July. Of all electors surveyed 4% (down 2%) didn’t name a party.

Source: https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8489-nz-national%20-voting-intention-july-2020-202008070802

This shows all the poll results this term with the divergence of Labour and National this year very obvious:

Both the recent higher results for National are Colmar Brunton – have they been the outlier/rogue? Or are they closer to the mark with both Reid Research and Roy Morgan out of whack?

Colmar Brunton for National: 29% (May), 38% (June), 32% (July). Even if that’s more accurate than the others it is still dismal for National.

And this shows the climb of ACT and decline of NZ First:

Ardern and Labour look to have sidelined Winston Peters and NZ First.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2020_New_Zealand_general_election

Labour + Greens are looking very strong in all polls at 55-65%, but Labour could easily govern alone based on all recent polls, and nothing currently seems to be challenging their dominance as control of Covid looks good and the economic impact has been held at bay for now at least.

Rogue polls versus statistics

It’s common for politicians to claim that unfavourable polls are inaccurate (and nearly as common for them to accept favourable polls as ok).

Gerry Brownlee went as far as claiming a Newshub/Reid Research poll published on Monday was ‘rogue’.

RNZ: Gerry Brownlee questions methodology used in latest Newshub Reid Research poll

The latest Newshub Reid Research poll, released last night, has put the Labour Party on 60.9 percent and National on 25.1 percent, as the election draws closer.

The National Party released a statement just one minute before the news of the poll, dismissing it as rogue.

“I don’t believe it at all, I think it’s entirely out of kilter, it’s absolutely opposite to what we’re hearing in the electorates. The poll itself doesn’t go anywhere near where our polling is, the polling itself is clearly wrong,” party leader Judith Collins said.

National’s election campaign chair and deputy leader Gerry Brownlee told Morning Report that he meant no disrespect to the people who participated or those at Reid Research, but questioned the methodology being used.

“[The methodology used] potentially could not be random. When they applied that methodology, you’re going through selecting people who meet certain criteria that you want to have inside your polls – age groups and diversity, but that doesn’t mean you are always getting a truly random sample of what people are thinking politically.”

He reiterated the same message he had from last night, that statistically one in 20 polls would be wrong and that this was that one.

The poll has a margin of error of 3.1 percent, and was done between 16-24 July with 1000 people surveyed – the majority by phone and the remainder via an internet panel.

One of the problems with Brownlee’s claims is that while statistically a 1 in 20 poll may be outside the margin of error it is very likely to be 10% outside the margin of error. It would be much more likely to be just 0.1% outside the margin of error, or 1% outside.

According to statistical methods with the 95% confidence used is there is a 95% (19 in 20) the 25.1% result for National will be between 22.0% and 28.2%, and a 1 in 20 chance it will be outside this range. But the chances of it being 35% (or 15%) are very slim.

National leaked an internal poll result of 36% (but gave no details about polling period or sample size) – this means there is a 95% chance of it of actually being between 33% and 39%.

The 1 News/Colmar Brunton poll published on Thursday had a different polling period and a different result.

It was published as 32% with a margin of error of 3.1% (at 50%, it reduces the further you get from 50%). But that’s a rounded result, it could have been anywhere between 31.51% and 32.49%.

Accounting for the margin of error that’s a 95% confidence range somewhere between about 28.5% and 35.5%, with a 1 in 20 chance it is outside this.

Labour were published as 53%, but that’s a 95% confidence range somewhere between about 49.5% and 56.5%, still a big lead over National.

So any poll is quite approximate, despite how Newshub and 1 News try to portray their results.

Political news will affect who people think they may vote for. Sensationalised news of poll results is also likely to affect voter decisions.

And these poll results are already out of date. The Colmar Brunton poll published on Thursday:

  • Interviewing took place from Saturday 25 to Wednesday 29 July 2020.
  • Sunday (50% of sample size target was reached on this day).

So political news (including the Monday Reid Research poll) and social contact through the week would barely be reflected in the Colmar poll.

Brownlee making a fuss about a poor poll result drew more attention (some negative) to the result, but will probably only play a very small in the next poll.

Rogue MPs are a much bigger deal than rogue polls.

Polls are a useful but very approximate indicator of voter preferences in the past.

Colmar Brunton poll – July 2020

The latest 1 News/Colmar Brunton poll:

  • Labour 53% (up 2)
  • National 32% (down 6)
  • Greens 5% (down 1)
  • ACT 4.8% (up 1.7)
  • NZ First 2 (up 0.2)
  • New Conservatives 1.2%
  • Maori Party 1%
  • Don’t know/refused 14%

Still obviously very good for Labour.

Bad for National but nowhere near as bad as the Reid Research poll (25%). They could improve more from there but look a long way off challenging Labour.

Probably at National’s expense ACT are in a very good place for them.

Greens are still hovering around the threshold which for them having no electorates is high risk.

Further evidence that voters are giving up on Winston Peters and his party.

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 54% (no change)
  • Judith Collins 20% (up 18)
  • Winston Peters 1% (down 1)
  • David Seymour 1% (up 0.2)
  • Christopher Luxon 1%
  • Billy Te Kahika 1%

That’s a fairly good result for Collins considering how bad National has been over the last few weeks, and how uneven her performance has been.

On trust:

  • Jacinda Ardern: yes 82%, no 16% = +68
  • David Seymour: yes 48%, no 36% = +12%
  • Judith Collins: yes 47%, no 45% = +2
  • James Shaw: yes 47%, no 31% = +16
  • Marama Davidson: yes 44%, no 34% = +10
  • Winston Peters: yes 34%, no 59% = -25

Judith Collins: Approve 50%, Disapprove 23 = +27
– Todd Muller got +10 in June 2020, Simon bridges -40 in May 2020

Polling was done from Saturday 25th to Wednesday 29th July.

More details will come out in while.

Newshub/Reid Research poll July 2020

The latest Newshub/Reid Research poll is great for Labour and terrible for National. which isn’t a surprise after what has happened over the last two weeks.

Greens are just hanging on ov er the threshold, NZ First is still well down in danger territory and ACT will be happy but are not picking up all the support National is shedding.

  • Labour 60.9% (up 4.4)
  • National 25.1% (down 5.5)
  • Greens 5.7% (up 0.2)
  • ACT Party 3.3% (up 1.5)
  • NZ First 2.0% (down 0.7)
  • New Conservatives 0.9% (down 0.1)
  • Maori Party 0.4% (down 0.5)
  • TOP 0.4% (up 0.3)

Newshub: The destruction of National under Judith Collins as party sinks to 25 percent

That’s a stupid but typical headline.

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 62% (up 2.5)
  • Judith Collins 14.6% (up 11.5)
  • Simon Bridges 5.5%

Collins is higher than Bridges ever got but still nowhere near challenging Ardern, who looks untouchable at the moment.

Jacinda Ardern still soaring as preferred Prime Minister – but Judith Collins is convinced she’ll win

The latest Newshub-Reid Research Poll was conducted between 16-24 July 2020. One thousand people were surveyed, 700 by telephone including both landlines and mobiles and 300 by internet panel. It has a margin of error of 3.1 percent.

Jacinda Ardern:

  • Performing well 85.3%
  • Performing poorly 8.2%

It would take a miracle to stop Ardern (aka Labour) from romping in this election. The only query seems to be at this stage whether they will be able to form a government on their own or not.

Judith Collins:

  • Performing well 39.5%
  • Performing poorly 30.8%

Last poll Bridges 21.6% thought bridges was performing well and 59.5% thought he was performing poorly. Collins is doing much better than thatt but National MPs have let the party down badly.

This is grim for Collins but National has had a series of crises that can’t be blamed on her. Bridges was doing badly, Todd Muller made things worse.

Euthanasia and cannabis polls

Research NZ has bing doing polls related to the referendums on euthanasia and cannabis.

Asked whether they were in favour or not in favour of the legislation which allows terminally ill adults to request a medically assisted death:

  • 64% in favour
  • 18% not in favour
  • 7% don’t know

Research NZ managing partner Emanuel Kalafatelis said 52 percent of survey respondents said they had recently seen or heard information about legalising euthanasia, while 55 percent said they had thought about the issue and about a third had discussed it with their friends and family.

…the figure shows a softening in the level of support and when the same question was asked in December last year approximately 70 percent of respondents were in favour of the legislation, while the number of those strongly in favour of the legislation dropped from 50 percent six months ago to 33 percent today.

Kalafatelis said there is a relatively higher level of support among older age groups, but the level of support across all age groups is well over 50 percent.

“Are you in favour or not in favour of a government controlling by law how cannabis is grown, manufactured and sold in New Zealand for recreational use.”

  • 43% in favour
  • 39% against

These results do not show any major difference with the results from the cannabis poll taken six months ago, he said.

Kalafatelis said there is quite significant support for legalising cannabis among younger age groups, with the level of support at 57 percent amongst the 18 to 24 year olds.

Report: Kiwis back euthanasia, split on legalising cannabis – poll

Official information:

Cannabis legalisation and control referendum

End of Life Choice referendum

Roy Morgan poll – June 2020

The June poll from Roy Morgan has just been released – polling was done during June so before the Covid information leak, Walker resignation  and aftermath, and well before Todd Muller stepping down from the leadership, but it is still bd news for National.

  • Labour 54.5% (down 2)
  • National 27% (up 0.5)
  • Greens 9% (up 2)
  • ACT 5% (up 1.5)
  • NZ First 1.5% (down 1)
  • The Opportunities Party 1.5% (up 0.5)
  • Maori Party 1% (down 0.5%)

Labour are looking very comfortable, and Greens and Act will be very happy with their rises.

NZ First remain in a precarious position with it seems little interest in keeping Winston Peters in Parliament.

It is looking very grim for National, and that’s before the really bad week and a half began.

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a NZ wide cross-section of 879 electors during June. Of all electors surveyed 6% (up 0.5%) didn’t name a party. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”

 

Detail on the Green Party ‘wealth tax’

A key part of the Green Party ‘Poverty Action Plan’ announced yesterday was a wealth tax that would partly fund major benefit increases. The Green website soliciting support and petition signatures has very sparse information:

A 1% wealth tax for those with a net-worth over $1 million.

Media gradually provided details.

Newsroom:  Greens unveil plans to overhaul welfare and tax systems

In its first election policy announcement, the Green Party has called for a guaranteed minimum income (GMI) of at least $325 a week for anyone not in full-time employment, including students.

The policy, costing a total of $6.6 billion in year one and around $12 billion a year from full implementation by 2023, would be funded by a wealth tax – where people with assets of more than $1 million will pay a 1 percent levy per year – and two new tax brackets for high income earners. The Greens expect to raise $8 billion from the wealth tax in the first full year, rising to $9 billion by 2023/24.

To pay for the Poverty Action Plan, two new tax brackets would be created to tax income above $100,000 and $150,000 at a higher rate of 37 percent and 42 percent, respectively. This would affect the top 7 percent of income earners, the Greens say, and generate $1.3 billion a year.

This suggests the wealth tax and tax bracket changes will not fully fund the benefit increases – $9b + $1.3b is less than $12b.

This must just be based on estimates, as valuations would have to be done on wealth/assets-liabilities.

It will be calculated on an individual basis, meaning a couple would have to own at least $2 million in assets for both of them to begin paying the wealth tax.

The tax will also exclude certain assets from consideration, including individual household assets – furniture, electronics and vehicles – worth less than $50,000 and Māori land under the Te Ture Whenua Māori Act. Charity organisations with assets held by individual members would not be counted either.

The wealth tax would affect just 6 percent of New Zealanders, according to the Greens’ figures.

For most people property will be their only assets considered as wealth – as well as businesses, which could be quite hard to value annually.

Some examples:

Image

I had to search for details and eventually found them via Scoop. The Summary document is also very sparse in details. For that you have to go to their policy document. The Summary of this is again very sparse, so here are some key details on the wealth tax:

Those who receive more money from the Government will think it fair.  Those being “asked to pay a small annual contribution” may think differently.

I presume that most of those applauding this wealth tax will not be in the 6% of people who would have to pay more tax.

But this is all subject to:

  • The Greens being re-elected back into Parliament
  • Coalition negotiations with Labour (Grant Robertson said they would have their own welfare/tax policy)
  • Veto of NZ First if they are also part of the next government
  • A “detailed policy development process”
  • A decision by Cabinet to proceed with whatever comes out of the process.
  • Legislation being passed in Parliament.

That could take a year or two at least if it is able to proceed.

Full policy document:

Click to access Poverty_Action_Plan_policy_document_EMBARGOED_2.pdf

 

 

1 News Colmar Brunton poll – June 2020

The latest 1 News Colmar Brunton poll – party support:

  • Labour 50% (down from 59)
  • National 38% (up from 29)
  • Greens 6% (up from 4.7)
  • ACT Party 3.1% (up from 2.2)
  • NZ First 1.8% (down from 2.9)
  • Maori Party 0.9%
  • New Conservative 0.7%
  • TOP 0.5%
  • Don’t know/refused 15%

Not surprising to see Labour down from the extraordinary high of the previous poll.

National will be relieved to have recovered from their low.

Greens will be cautiously pleased to be creeping up above the threshold.

ACT are climbing up still and are in a good position for them.

The biggest surprise is a further dip for NZ First to just 1.8%.

Polling was done this week up until and including yesterday, so after last week where there were a lot of Covid quarantine/isolation and testing issues highlighted, but during the ongoing issues this week but barely touching the David Clark versus Ashley Blomfield thing yesterday and last night.

These issues may be partially reflected in this poll.

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 54% (down from 63)
  • Todd Muller 13% (up from 0.2)
  • Judith Collins 2% (down from 3)
  • Winston Peters 2% (up from 1)
  • Simon Bridges 0.4% (down from 5)

The poll also asked if they approved or disapproved of the way Todd Muller was handling his job as leader of the National Party.

  • Approved 36%
  • Disapproved 27%
  • Don’t know/refused 37%

That’s not disastrous for Muller after 5 weeks  as leader.

Between June 20 to 24, 2020, 1007 eligible voters were polled by landline (404) and mobile phone (603). The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level.

Details: https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/national-jumps-in-support-new-leader-labour-still-able-govern-alone-1-news-colmar-brunton-poll

May results: https://www.tvnz.co.nz/content/tvnz/onenews/story/2020/05/21/party.html

UMR poll: National bottomed out

The latest UMR poll suggests that big National’s slide may have ended, getting 30%. They were still polling in the forties in February before Covid struck but slid to 29-30 in three polls, and in the latest (Roy Morgan in late May) they got just 26.5%,

And for now at least, and Todd Muller has at least got higher approval than Simon Bridges had. It’s early days for Muller’s leadership, and his first week was not flash and he was dumped on by media, but he at least has a chance to build on some support.

  • Labour 54% (down marginally from 55% in April)
  • National 30% (up marginally from 29% in April)
  • NZ First 5% (down from 6%)
  • Greens 4% (down from 5%)
  • ACT may be 2.5%

No result reported for ACT or parties not in Parliament (but a social media mention of the ACT result).

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 65% (no change)
  • Todd Muller 13%

The April UMR poll had Bridges on 7% so Muller and National may feel a bit of vindication for changing the leadership.

The poll of 1211 voters was taken from May 26 to June 1 and has a margin of error of +/-3%.

UMR polls are private polls (paid for by Labour and corporate clients) but have been more often leaked when they have been favourable to Labour and bad for National

Source ODT/NZ Herald (with a stupid headline, the situation now is very different too when).