Majority support stronger firearms laws – poll

A 1 News/Colmar Brunton poll has only 14% of people opposing the new firearms laws.

1 News  New poll: 61% of New Zealanders back gun ban in wake of Christchurch atrocity

The majority of New Zealand voters believe the Government’s swift move to enact new gun laws has been “about right” in the wake of the Christchurch terrorist attacks.

In the latest 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll, eligible New Zealand voters were asked what they thought of the Government’s moves.

  • 61%  thought the changes were about right
  • 19% thought it did not go far enough
  • 14% thought it went too far
  • 5% didn’t know
  • 2% refused to answer.

So 80% thought the changes were ‘about right’ or didn’t go far enough.

The Government has indicated this was the ‘first tranche’ of changes and intend to do more, but will wisely take more to look into what else should be done.

Between April 6 and 10, 1009 eligible voters were polled via landline and mobile phone. The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95 per cent confidence level.

1 News Colmar Brunton poll

The latest 1 News/Colmar Brunton political poll:

  • Labour 48% (up from 45)
  • National 40% (down from 42)
  • Greens 6% (no change)
  • NZ First 4% (up from 3)
  • ACT 1% (no change)

This is quite similar  to the recent Reid Research poll for both Labour and National- see Reid Research party support poll – but is better news for Greens and slightly better for NZ First.

Refused to answer 4%, undecided 11%. Fieldwork conducted 6-10 April.

The last poll was conducted 9-13 February.

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 51% (up from 44)
  • Simon Bridges 5% (down from 6)
  • Judith Collins 5% (down from 6)
  • Winston Peters 3%  (no change)

That’s the highest Ardern has been but it’s still well short of John Key’s highs – he was often over 50% and went as high as 70%..

Barely a change for Bridges but not good for him. There is increasing talk of a challenge to his leaardership.

Reid Research party support poll

A Business New Zealand Reid Research poll on party support slipped under the radar this week. It was taken from 15-23 March, the day of and just after the Christchurch mosque attacks, so it should be treated with more caution than normal.

  • Labour 49.6%
  • National 41.3%
  • Green Party 3.9%
  • NZ First 2.3%

Labour are up from 47.5% in the RR February poll (which was up 4.5% from the previous poll). It isn’t surprising to see an (small) increase in support for Labour at the  time of a major adverse event. Jacinda Ardern’s adept handling of the attack aftermath has been rewarded in the poll.

National have hardly moved, down just 0.3% from the February poll, but had dipped 3.5% to a record low in the previous poll. They may struggle to hold even at that after Simon Bridge’s performance since.

Labour’s gain has been Green’s loss.

Greens have dropped from 5.1% to 3.9%, which must be a concern to them. James Shaw was largely unseen after the Christchurch killings, with Marama Davidson and Golriz Ghahraman being more prominent, and they tend to be polarising – popular in part but also annoying many.

NZ first have slipped 0.5% to 2.3%, after dropping by the same amount in February. Winston Peters and NZ First fully backing the Arms Amendment Bill happened after the poll period so they could easily slip further. They have disappointed a lot of their 2017 supporters.

The Business NZ Reid Research poll of 1,000 voters was taken from March 15-23 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.1 per cent. 750 were interviewed by phone and 250 online.

Source NZ Herald – Claire Trevett: Poll puts Labour support up after mosque attacks but tax is back in debate

 

Poll – most people against Capital Gains Tax

A Business New Zealand/Reid Research poll has found that most people are opposed to a Capital Gains Tax. Labour has found in the past that a CGT was unpopular with the electorate.

CGT should be a priority for the Government?

  • No – 65%
  • Yes – 22.8%

Has CGT harmed the Government?

  • No – 33.1%
  • Yes – 47.8%
  • Don’t know – 19.2%

I don’t know if the CGT proposals have damaged the Government. I don’t know how anyone else can say with any certainty that it has or hasn’t.

Do you think there should be a capital gains tax on things like businesses and farms?

  • No – 54.3%
  • Yes – 31.6%
  • Don’t know – 14%

Do you think there should be a CGT on earnings on KiwiSaver?

  • No – 90%
  • Yes – 4.4%
  • Don’t know – 5.6%

The Reid-Research poll was conducted between March 15-23. It had a sample size of 1000 voters, with a margin of error of 3.1 percent. 

Source – Newshub

No reported and presumably not asked – do you understand what a Capital Gains Tax is?

Also not asked – will NZ First allow Labour to implement a CGT?

Also today, a pro-CGT protest at Parliament was very poorly supported – Few people at campaign launch in favour of capital gains tax

About 10 people were present for the launch of the campaign by Tax Justice Aotearoa NZ at Parliament this morning.

 

 

UMR and other polls – Labour and National even

Note – at best polls are just an approximate indicator of a snapshot of political support, especially individual polls.

Here is some anecdotal and it appears actual poll information.

Matthew Hooton in Capital Gains Tax debate shows Jacinda Ardern’s weakness

National insiders say their polling has NZ First consistently below the 5 per cent threshold, the Greens dicing with death by bouncing around it, and Labour and National locked in a tight battle, both above 40 per cent and within the margin of error of each other.

Care has to be taken with ‘insiders say’ anecdotes, but this is much the same as the last two published polls:

  • Reid Research 24 January-2 February: Labour 47.5%, National 41.6%, Greens 5.1%, NZ First 2.9%
  • Colmar Brunton 9-13 February: Labour 45%, National 42%, Greens 6%, NZ First 3%

The Reid Research poll was very early in the year, before politics cranked up, so favouring Labour is not surprising.

James Last yesterday on Twitter – The latest UMR poll for its corporate clients:

  • National up 5 to 45%
  • Labour down 1 to 44%
  • Greens down 2 to 5%
  • NZ First no change on 4%

While unpublished and verified this looks quite believable, with National back virtually level pegging with Labour.

National haven’t been particularly impressive but Labour have handled the Tax Working Group and CGT poorly so may have eased a bit because of that – but it could be too son to take much from it. If we get polls in the next month they may add too the picture, unless other major issues or events take over influence.

What this means is that hal way through the term (18 months before the next election) there is little in it between Labour and National. I think we can expect ebbs and flows in their support somewhere in the forties depending on timing of polls and margins of error.

Perhaps of more significance is NZ First remaining stuck under the threshold. When NZ First was last in government from 2005-2008 they polled mostly under the threshold and ended up getting 4.07 in the 2008 election, getting them dumped from Parliament.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2008_New_Zealand_general_election

Greens look a bit safer staying just above the threshold, but are still at risk. They will be keen to be seen to be achieving significant gains on climate, environmental and social issues. They have time for that, but need to start delivering.

 

 

75% Māori support for legalising cannabis

According to a poll a significant majority of Māori – 75% – say they would vote for legalising cannabis for personal use. This is in line with general population polls, but it shows that Māori views are similar to overall views.

Support legalising cannabis for personal use:

  • Yes 75%
  • No 14%
  • Unsure 11%

78% favour seeing legislation before the referendum (so that the referendum approves or rejects the legislation).

RNZ: Poll shows 75 percent of Māori support cannabis legalisation

A Horizon Research poll for Three’s The Hui programme found 75 percent of 620 Māori surveyed would vote for legalising cannabis, if a referendum was held tomorrow.

Drugs Foundation chair Tuari Potiki said today’s results puncture the belief this is solely a white, middle class issue.

Mr Potiki said cannabis was a totally unregulated market, harming whanau.

“We want to see the toughest regulation possible to add an element of control to a market that’s out of control,” he said.

“Three times more money and resourcing goes into police, customs and correction than providing treatment, so we want to see that resource shifted.”

Māori were being disproportionately harmed by current legislation and the survey results showed Māori want change, Mr Potiki said.

“Because there’s a a criminal justice approach to dealing with cannabis use, that means our whanau or more likely to end up being arrested, charged, convicted and sentenced than others, unfortunately the law isn’t applied equally,” he said.

Green MP Chlöe Swarbrick:

“What I do know are the facts about the disproportionate impact of those negative stats around cannabis prohibition and also the fact that if we are to move toward that health base model, we do have a opportunity to right wrongs”.

“That’s demonstrative… of the maturity of discussion we’ve so far been having around cannabis reform and ensuring we have a system that minimises drug harm”.

RNZ:  Cannabis referendum to cost more than $2.2m

A referendum on legalising the personal use of cannabis will cost taxpayers more than $2.2 million.

A Cabinet paper shows the health and justice ministries will receive the bulk of the funding, $1.9m, to provide dedicated, expert resources.

The remaining $296,000 is billed for the Electoral Commission, to carry out the binding referendum in 2020.

Justice Minister Andrew Little said the referendum should not detract from the general election, which it is being held in conjuction with, and no preliminary vote count will be done.

Instead, the referendum votes will be counted after election day and released along with the official 2020 election results.

Mr Little also noted the need to inform people to avoid confusion between the cannabis legalisation referendum and ongoing work on medicinal cannabis.

The ongoing personal, community, policing and health costs of not reforming cannabis law would be far greater than $2 million.

1 News Colmar poll – February 2019

A similar result in this 1 news/Colmar Brunton poll to the recent Newshub/Reid Research poll, which suggests a shift in support to Labour and away from National. It isn’t major yet, but it’s going to keep the leadership change talk.

  • Labour 45% (up from 43)
  • National 42% (down from 46)
  • Greens 6% (up from 5)
  • NZ First 3% (down from 4)
  • ACT 1% (no change)
  • Maori Party 1% (no change)
  • TOP 1%

Refuse to answer 6% (up from 3) undecided 10%. Fieldwork conducted 9-13 February.

Greens are sort of safe so with Labour look good for now.

NZ First is still struggling to survive.

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 44% (up from 39)
  • Simon Bridges 6% (down from 7)
  • Judith Collins 6% (no change)
  • Winston Peters 3%  (down from 4)

No a significant move for Bridges, but not a good place to be.

Core party support versus floating voters

That doesn’t mean they are guaranteed levels of vote the parties will get though. Indicating they are close to a single party doesn’t mean they will vote for them (tactical voting) or vote at all.

Greens dropped to 4.3% in a Colmar Brunton poll before the last election (12-16 August 2017), but that could be margin of error and/or disgruntled supporters and/or tactical voters the question asked is who would you vote for if an election was held today).

And of course this is historical data subject to margins of error. Support for parties will always ebb and flow.

One important number isn’t included – 43.5% did not rate themselves as close to a single party. That’s a big chunk of floating voters not committed to any one party. When you take into account tactical voting somewhere around half of voters may be up for grabs.

Issues New Zealanders care most about – sustainability poll

In Better Futures Colmar Brunton is  “Celebrating a decade of tracking New Zealanders’ attitudes & behaviours around sustainability”.

Trends show an increase in people concerned about the effects of climate change, and a commitment to live a sustainable lifestyle.

In a poll run between 4 and 11 December 2018 asked what issues people care most about.

  • Build up of plastic in the environment 72% – up 9
  • The cost of living 68% – no change
  • The protection of New Zealand children 67% – down 1
  • Suicide rates 67% – up 3
  • Violence in society 65% – down 4
  • Pollution of lakes, rivers and seas 64% – up 4
  • Caring for the ageing population 63% – new
  • The protection of my personal data online 62% – new
  • Availability of affordable housing 61% – up 2
  • Not having access to good affordable healthcare 60% – up 2

Trend of New Zealanders who express high level of concern around the impact of climate change on New Zealand

  • 2009 – 36%
  • 2010 – 31%
  • 2011 – 29%
  • 2012 – 33%
  • 2013 – 34%
  • 2014 – 41%
  • 2015 – 40%
  • 2016 – 45%
  • 2017 – 48%
  • 2018 – 55%

Commitment to living a sustainable lifestyle:

  • 2015 – low 17%, medium 59%, high 24%
  • 2016 – low 10%, medium 65%, high 25%
  • 2017 – low 10%, medium 60%, high 30%
  • 2018 – low 5%, medium 53%, high 42%

Who will always/mostly go meat free:

  • 2014 – 4%
  • 2015 – 5%
  • 2016 – 6%
  • 2017 – 7%
  • 2018 – 10%

Switching to an electric car or hybrid:

  • 34% thinking about switching
  • 22% thought about it but probably won’t
  • 27% don’t want to switch
  • 14% haven’t thought about it or don’t know

‘Sustainable’ travel practices:

  • 71% shop locally
  • 67% walk for short journeys
  • 57% drive in a more fuel-efficient way
  • 20% take public transport
  • 20% cycle for short journeys
  • 19% carpool for work
  • 9% pay to offset carbon on flights
  • 6% scooter for short journeys

Impact of plastic:

  • 85% say reducing disposable packaging is the right thing to do
  • 77% say they can make a difference by reducing use of disposable packaging
    …but…
  • Only 1% who buy lunch use reusable containers all the time.

‘Kinder’ businesses:

  • 86% “It is important for me to work for a company that is socially and environmentally responsible”
  • 90% “If I heard about a company being irresponsible or unethical, I’d stop buying their products or using their services”

On employers caring about society:

  • 67% agree their employer has values they believe in
  • 65% agree their employer actively supports society
  • 66% agree they would recommend their workplace to others

 

Newshub/Reid Research poll – February 2019

It’s a long time since there has been a Newshub/Reid Research poll, and the only other poll so far this year (1 News/Colmar Brunton) was taken before politics cranked up for the year, so this latest poll needs to be treated with more caution than usual.

  • Labour 47.5% (up 4.9%)
  • National 41.6% (down 3.5%)
  • Greens 5.1% (down 0.5%)
  • NZ First 2.9% (up 0.5%)

Asked “Performing well?”:

  • Jacinda Ardern yes 68.3%, no 16.8%
  • Simon Bridges yes 21.9%, no 50.8%

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 41.6%
  • Judith Collins 6.2%
  • Simon Bridges 5.0%
  • Winston Peters

As usual Newshub are overegging this poll result:

It was taken before Parliament sits this week, and after a PR friendly trip to the UK and Europe, and Waitangi Day events – but it’s a very good result for Ardern and Labour and ok for the Greens, who together wouldn’t require NZ First if they fail to get back up to beat the threshold.

But there is no question that this poll is bad for Bridges – and to make matters worse he sounded like a wet blanket trying to talk his way through it.

It’s hard to see National persevering with him for many more months.

Poll results since the election: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_New_Zealand_general_election

UPDATE: Newshub report: National plunges to worst result in over a decade

This poll was taken from January 24 to February 2, and has a margin of error of 3.1 percent.

So they delayed releasing the results for a week. That seems unusual. It was taken while and just after Ardern was getting glowing reports from her European trip, and before Waitangi week.