National leadership poll (sort of interesting but out of date)

A public poll on the National leadership is of limited value, because the leader is chosen by National’s 56 MPs only, and the poll was conducted before the leadership contest began. But it is a bit interesting, especially National supporter results.

The Spinoff Exclusive: Poll gives Judith Collins slim lead as preferred National leader

A UMR Research survey puts the polarising MP in the lead – but only slightly, and her favourability numbers are dismal, an area in which Amy Adams holds bragging rights.

The tussle to lead the biggest party in New Zealand’s parliament will be a tight one, if polling conducted largely prior to Bill English’s resignation and exclusively revealed to the Spinoff is a guide. Of the declared candidates, Judith Collins can boast the greatest support as preferred National Party leader, both among National voters and the wider public, though her lead over Steven Joyce is statistically negligible.

Not surprising to see so many ‘unsure’. The poll is split over eight MPs with a third ‘unsure’.

Notable that Mark Mitchell doesn’t feature, but that’s not surprising because the poll was almost entirely before Bill English announced he was stepping down, so before any candidates put their names forward.

Favourability ratings are also pertinent:

Collins is slightly behind Adams on favourability, but has twice the unfavourability with about half respondents seeing her unfavourably.

UMR Research, whose clients include the Labour Party, returned the results from its nationwide online omnibus survey, conducted between January 30 and February 14 (Bill English resigned on February 13). A nationally representative sample of 1,000 New Zealanders 18 years of age and over are surveyed. The margin of error for sample size of 750 for a 50% figure at the 95% confidence level is ± 3.1%.

The margin of error for National supporters will be much higher.

Labour jump in Colmar poll

Labour have jumped up to 48% in the latest 1 News/Colmar Brunton poll. National has slipped a bit with Greens and NZ First struggling.

  • Labour 48% (up 9)
  • National 43% (down 3)
  • Greens 5% (down 2)
  • NZ First 3% (down 2)
  • Maori Party 1%
  • TOP 1%

That will shake up the parties and pundits. It’s not a big drop for National but they will be worried about a downward direction with English stepping down, but it’s a major bump for Labour, at the expense of their partner parties in Government.

Ardern is up 4 to 41% in preferred Prime Minister, Bill English dropped but is irrelevant now in polls.

Newshub poll – National and Labour close, NZF slump

A typically misleading headline from Newshub on their first political poll of the year: Labour soars to popularity not seen for a decade

According to the latest Newshub-Reid Research poll, Labour’s polling is at its highest level since 2007…

That might be correct for a Newshub/Reid Research poll, if their polling methods hadn’t changed in ten years and they have allowed for margins of error. But other polls last year had Labour around the same level of support (43%, 43%, 45%).

However Labour has risen, at the expense of NZ First.

  • National 44.5% (up 0.1)
  • Labour 42.3% (up 5.4)
  • Greens 6.0% (down 0.3)
  • NZ First 3.8% (down 3.4)
  • TOP 1.4% (down 1)
  • Maori Party 0.8% (down 0.4)
  • ACT 0.2% (down 0.3)

Most of those results are too small to mean anything, except for the Labour lift and the NZ First slump.

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 38% (up 8.3)
  • Bill English 26% (down 9)
  • Winston Peters 5.7% (down 1.4)

Newshub-Reid Research interviews were conducted using online polling and computer-assisted telephone interviewing. Some 750 people were interviewed by phone and 250 online between Thursday, January 18 and Sunday, January 28.

Data is weighted to ensure a cross-section of representation of age, gender and geography.

The sample error is maximum of +/-3.1 percent at a 95 percent confidence level.

Also: Kiwis unfazed by Prime Minister’s pregnancy

And:  Bill English has solid backing as Opposition leader

One could wonder why Barry Soper raised the issue of English’s leadership in an ‘opinion’ piece this morning.

Hopelessly out of touch poll claim

Polls are often used to claim things that they don’t portray. There is no way of knowing exactly why polls move, and what timeframe cause and effect operates under. Pundits can only guess, or make things up.

In New Zealand media companies who publish polls try to make dramatic stories out of their own polls.

Here a niche blogger makes a ridiculous claim based on a US poll aggregator’s rolling results: Shithole countries comment gets Trump a big bounce in the polls

I had a chat amongst some other political tragics some weeks ago about how big a bounce would Donald Trump get with his shithole countries comments.

Some weeks ago? Trump made those comments just over two weeks ago, reported on 11 January (US date so 12 January NZ date).

It turns out a pretty substantial bump in the polls:

It doesn’t turn out to be anything of the sort. A Real Clear Politics ‘President Trump Job Approval’ chart is displayed – here is the same thing a day later, with the date of the shithole comment shown.

Since the comment there has been a small improvement in the poll average.  All polls cover several days and are obviously published after they are taken. Some of them are rolling polls. There is never a ‘before and event’ poll and an ‘after an event’ poll that can measure a movement on a specific day. So there is no way of knowing when a poll moves and why with any precision.

And different polls come out over time, with some leaning one way or the other, so the timing of the polls in the mix can make a difference, especially coming out of a time when some polls shut down for the holiday period.

RCP polling data shown at the blog:

I don’t know how that can tell anyone why a poll average changed due to one of many events that happened on 11 January, before that and after that. Trump is in the news a lot. A few days prior to his shithole comment Michael Wolff’s book was big news, and that’s likely to have some effect on poll trends.

A single rolling poll (Rasmussen Reports that tends to favour Trump) shows no appreciable change over the shithole period.

Date Approval Index Strongly Approve Strongly Disapprove Total Approve Total Disapprove
26-Jan-18 -12 30% 42% 44% 55%
25-Jan-18 -15 29% 44% 45% 54%
24-Jan-18 -16 29% 45% 44% 55%
23-Jan-18 -18 29% 47% 43% 57%
22-Jan-18 -18 28% 46% 42% 56%
19-Jan-18 -14 30% 44% 45% 54%
18-Jan-18 -16 28% 44% 45% 54%
17-Jan-18 -16 29% 45% 45% 54%
16-Jan-18 -16 29% 45% 45% 54%
15-Jan-18 -13 31% 44% 46% 52%
12-Jan-18 -13 30% 43% 46% 53%
11-Jan-18 -13 29% 42% 45% 53%
10-Jan-18 -14 30% 44% 44% 55%
09-Jan-18 -17 28% 45% 43% 56%
08-Jan-18 -16 30% 46% 42% 56%
05-Jan-18 -15 29% 44% 44% 54%
04-Jan-18 -12 31% 43% 45% 53%
03-Jan-18 -15 29% 44% 44% 54%

To understand what people thought of Trump’s comment requires a targeted poll. Like this one from HuffPost/YouGov:

January 11 – 12, 2018 – 1000 US Adults

According to a recent news report, President Trump asked “Why are we having all these people from shithole countries come here?” referring to immigration from African countries and Haiti. Do you agree or disagree with that comment?

  • Agree strongly 12%
  • Agree somewhat 14%
  • Total agree 26%
  • Disagree somewhat 13%
  • Disagree strongly 45%
  • Total disagree 58%
  • Not sure 16%

A comment at WO from ‘no bullswool’ would appear to be bullswool:

Donald Trump is refreshing in that he says what many ordinary people are thinking.

Back to the WO post:

Once again the media are shown to be hopelessly out of touch with ordinary voters.

Those are big changes over the previous months polling and you can clearly see his Approval ratings climbing rapidly off of the back of his shithole comments.

They are not big changes, ratings haven’t climbed rapidly, there is no way of linking minor poll fluctuations to one comment by Trump, and are a fool (or are trying to fool others) claiming you can see clearly what Slater is claiming.

Who is hopelessly out of touch?

Q+A – new poll plus Colmar Brunton interview

Q+A this morning will have the first Colmar brunton polls results since the election, plus an interview on Colmar’ Brunton’s changed methodology (which may make poll comparisons difficult):

We’ll have the results of our Colmar Brunton political poll – which political party will get an early Christmas present?

Jessica Mutch will also interview Jason Shoebridge – the CEO of Kantar Insights, the parent company of Colmar Brunton. He’ll talk about why Colmar Brunton has changed its methodology for its TVNZ political polling.

Colmar Brunton are now polling 50% mobile phones.

The poll with have some curiosity value.

  • National 46% (election 44.4%)
  • Labour 39% (election 36.9%)
  • NZ First 5% (election 7.2%)
  • Greens 7% (election 6.3%)
  • TOP 1% (election 2.4%)
  • Maori Party 1% (election 1.2%)
  • ACT NR (election 0.5%)

So an unusual situation where the leading party in Government remains the second most popular party by a clear margin.

NZ First should be concerned to see their support slipping.

They are rounded to the nearest % (more detailed results are usually published a few days later), hence no result for ACT here.

Is New Zealand heading in the right direction?

  • Right direction 51%
  • Wrong direction 26%
  • Don’t know 27%

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 37%
  • Bill English 28%
  • Winston Peters 5%

Not surprising to see Ardern ahead there. She was already doing well, and has been getting more media coverage.

Surge in New Zealand confidence rating

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating: 146.5 pts (up 15.5 pts)

This is the highest confidence rating since January 2010, which was in the first term of the John Key led National government.

 “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in New Zealand are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

  • Right direction 66.5% (up from 58.5%)
  • Wrong direction 20% (down from 27.5%)
  • Can’t say 13.5% (little change from 14%)

That’s a positive shift.

National supporters may generally still have confidence while Labour/Green/NZ First supporters will have gained confidence.


Roy Morgan: New PM Jacinda Ardern drives surge in New Zealand Government Confidence



Government supported in latest RM poll

The November Roy Morgan poll suggests a shift in support towards Labour and Greens since the election, but NZ First has slipped.

National are still slightly ahead of Labour, but have dropped.

  • National 40.5% (election 44.45%, October 46%)
  • Labour 39.5% (election 36.89%, October 31%)
  • Greens 10% (election 6.27%, October 11%)
  • NZ First 5% (election 7.2%, October 6.5%)
  • ACT 0.5% (election 0.5%, October 0.5%)
  • TOP 2% (election 2.44%, October 2%)
  • Maori Party 1.5% (election 1.18%, 1.5%)
  • Other 1% (election 1.07%, October 1.5%)

Labour+Greens are 49.5%, and Labour+NZ First+Greens are 54.5%, the highest

This is early days for the new Government but indications are that there is general support for it.

The October poll was taken not long after the September election and during coalition negotiations, which may explain it’s swings, especially for Labour.

A poll at this stage doesn’t mean a lot but is of some interest as it indicates that the Labour led government seems to be generally well supported.

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your
party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by
telephone – both landline and mobile – with a NZ wide cross-section of 887 electors during
October 30 – November 12, 2017. Of all electors surveyed 2% (down 1.5%) didn’t name a party.


Summary: New PM Jacinda Ardern drives surge in New Zealand Government Confiden

Detail: Tableau PDF

Roy Morgan post-election poll

The first post-election poll is from Roy Morgan:

  • National 46%
  • Labour 31%
  • Greens 11%
  • NZ First 6.5%
  • TOP 2.0%
  • Maori Party 1.5%
  • ACT Party 0.5%

It’s a bit surprising to see Labour down 5% from their election result, and Greens up 5% on  their’s

Combined totals:

  • Labour+Greens 42%
  • Labour+NZ First 37.5%
  • Labour+Greens+NZ First 48.5%

The polling period was 25 September to 8 October, so straight after the election but before Winston Peters chose tenable a government with Labour and Greens.

Of course these results don’t matter but they are of a little bit of interest to see how the public views the parties after the election.

Election results since MMP started plus polls before and after this election:





Newshub/Reid Research – pre-election poll

The last Newshub/Reid Research poll before the election:

  • National 45.8% (last week 47.3)
  • Labour 37.3% (last week 37.8)
  • NZ First 7.1% (last week 6.0)
  • Greens 7.1% (last week 4.9)
  • TOP 0.9% (last week 1.6)
  • Maori Party 0.4% (last week 1.1)
  • ACT 0.6% (last week 0.6)

This is quite similar to last night’s Colmar Brunton poll as well as being similar to last week’s Reid Research poll, with the only slight but possibly significant difference is NZ First coming back up a bit out of the threshold zone.

As we’ve known for a long time the election looks like being close and could go either way with a number of coalition possibilities remaining in play.

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 29.6% (last week 31.1)
  • Bill English  34.7% (last week 33.1)
  • Winston Peters 7.1% (last week 6.9)

The last poll was conducted 6-11 September. Margin of error of 3.1%.

Newshub election poll: Either National, Labour could take power

Stupid headline – no single party has been able to ‘take power’ under MMP.

Blog responses to CB poll

It’s interesting to see blog responses to polls. With some it depends very much on the results.

Last night a Colmar Brunton poll showed a significant swing for National and against Labour.

Whale Oil tends to be slow reacting to news, especially news they don’t like. So far they have only one post on the poll, and it’s bizarre – Face of the Day:

Meet Gary Morgan.  The Man At The Top at Roy Morgan Research.  He may be, in the end, the most powerful influencer of how this election turned out.

That on it’s own is an odd claim.

Well, I think he should hide in his office for the day.  Even though I have no doubt there has not been anything shady going on, the end result is that the widely swinging poll, and specifically its timing, is hugely damaging to the Labour party.

That has to be the shoddiest bit of polling yet.   It wouldn’t surprise me if the left will accuse Roy Morgan of deliberately screwing with the election in favour of National.

The shoddiness is in the post.

That’s last night’s Colmar Brunton poll. Roy Morgan has nothing to do with it.

And it is dirty and devious to use ‘the left’ to imply a deliberately screwed poll.

Has ‘Whaleoil Staff’ really got confused between Roy Morgan and Colmar Brunton? Or is it deliberate confusion to attack the pollsters and the poll result?

Meanwhile The Standard is usually very quick to have posts on Labour friendly polls, but as is common last night’s poll has not appeared anywhere apart from in last night’s Daily Review 20/09/2017.

Instead Anthony Robins continues his posts attacking National:

Is NZ doomed to lying politics now?

Bill English and the Nats are now running firmly on a platform of lies – Gower calls them on this for a second time this week. Should the political left get down in the gutter too? Is NZ doomed to lying politics now?

Sounds defeatist.

Nats “discovered poverty last week” – and will forget it just as quickly

Ardern’s jab that English “discovered poverty last week” was the line of the debate. After the election National will forget it again just as quickly, if the record of the last nine years is anything to go by. Do you want to vote for that?

Why do Labour supporters put so much effort into attacking National at The Standard when they have a largely left wing audience.

The Standard (resident trolls and moderators) actively try to drive away anyone judged to be a National supporter. Even those in the centre, or non-aligned, or deemed to be not left enough get attacked and banned.

So they are hardly going to swing many votes away from National by attacking them.

And there is a stark contrast between Jacinda Ardern’s ‘relentlessly positive’ and The Standard’s ‘relentlessly negative’.

Note that there are some positive Green posts at The Standard these days but Green supporters are prominent in their negative attacks.