Large lead for Labour candidate in Auckland Central

Auckland Central is the electorate where Nikki Kaye beat Jacinda Ardern twice after defeating Judith Tizzard in 2008.

Kaye is stepping down. A poll from Newshub/Reid Research Labour candidate Helen White, who lost to Kaye last election, well in front, with National’s late selection Emma Mellow 16% behind, closely followed by Green MP Chloe Swarbrick.

  • Helen White (LAB) 42.3%
  • Emma Mellow (NAT) 26.6%
  • Chloe Swarbrick (GRN) 24.2%
  • Jenny Marcroft (NZF) 2.2%
  • Tuariki Delamere (TOP) 1%
  • Felix Poole (ACT) 0.9%
  • David Seymour 1.9%
  • Other 0.9%

But: 20.7% of voters still undecided

That’s a different David Seymour.

Jenny Marcroft has effectively been dumped by NZ First, being dropped to 17 on their party list.

For the new poll, Reid Research interviewed 532 people in the Auckland Central electorate via landline, mobile, online and on the street in the first and second weeks of September. The results were weighted to match the electorate’s demographics. The margin of error is 4.2 percent.

That’s a small sample size.

And here are the single electorate party results:

Party votes for Auckland Central in the 2017 election:

  • National 39.15%
  • Labour 37.71%
  • Greens 13.87%
  • NZ First 3.87%
  • TOP: 3.14%
  • ACT 1.05%

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Auckland_Central_(New_Zealand_electorate)

The current result looks roughly in line with recent poll trends based on the last election spread.

Newshub: Auckland Central poll puts Labour’s Helen White way out in front

Cannabis referendum poll closed up

A Horizon Research survey, commissioned for Helius Therapeutics and (provided exclusively to Stuff) show that support and opposition for the cannabis referendum has closed up to even.

Stuff: New poll shows dead heat in legalise dope vote

I wish they would give things their proper name.

The referendum options are:

  • “Yes, I support the proposed Cannabis Legalisation and Control Bill.”
  • “No, I do not support the proposed Cannabis Legalisation and Control Bill”.
Image

“For nearly two years we’ve tracked public opinion, and this is an incredible result given early voting starts in just over four weeks. It’s increasingly clear that it will come down to voter registration and election turnout, particularly if younger adults lift their intention to vote,” chief executive of Helius Therapeutics Paul Manning said.

That sounds like standard over-egging the importance of a single poll.

When respondents were given a “not sure” option, 12 per cent took it, leaving 44 per cent in favour and 41 per cent against. The poll then gave people a binary yes/no choice to replicate the choice that people will face when they walk in to vote from October 3. That figure is a dead heat.

People who are not sure are probably less likely to vote. It is still over six weeks until the referendum (and election), but early voting starts in about four weeks.

It looks like opinion is closing up:

Age differences aren’t surprising:

Young people are less likely to vote and older people are more likely to vote so this favours the no vote.

Conducted between 20 and 25 August, the survey sampled over 1300 New Zealanders, and has a margin of error of 2.7 per cent.


The referendum question is:

Do you support the proposed Cannabis Legalisation and Control Bill?

  • Yes
    I support the proposed Cannabis Legalisation and Control Bill.
  • No
    I do not support the proposed Cannabis Legalisation and Control Bill.

About the proposed Cannabis Legalisation and Control Bill

The proposed Bill sets out a way for the Government to control and regulate cannabis. This regulatory model covers how people can produce, supply, or consume cannabis.

The Bill’s main purpose is to reduce cannabis-related harm to individuals, families/whānau and communities.

The Bill legalises restricted access to cannabis

The Bill would allow people to possess and consume cannabis in limited circumstances.

A person aged 20 or over would be able to:

  • buy up to 14 grams of dried cannabis (or its equivalent) per day only from licensed outlets
  • enter licensed premises where cannabis is sold or consumed
  • consume cannabis on private property or at licensed premises
  • grow up to 2 plants, with a maximum of 4 plants per household
  • share up to 14 grams of dried cannabis (or its equivalent) with another person aged 20 or over.

The Bill’s purpose is to reduce harm to people and communities

The Bill intends to reduce cannabis-related harm to individuals, families/whānau and communities by:

  • providing access to legal cannabis that meets quality and potency requirements
  • eliminating the illegal supply of cannabis
  • raising awareness of the health risks associated with cannabis use
  • restricting young people’s access to cannabis
  • limiting the public visibility of cannabis
  • requiring health warnings on packaging and at the time of purchase
  • improving access to health and social services, and other kinds of support for families/whānau
  • making sure the response to any breach of the law is fair.

The Bill controls the production and supply of cannabis

The Bill would regulate how cannabis is produced and supplied by:

  • limiting the total amount of licensed cannabis for sale
  • controlling the potency and contents of licensed cannabis and cannabis products
  • applying an excise tax when a product is packaged and labelled for sale
  • setting up a licensing system under which all cannabis-related businesses must hold a licence
  • regulating location and trading hours for premises where cannabis is sold or consumed, in consultation with local communities
  • banning people from importing cannabis and allowing only licensed businesses to import cannabis seeds
  • separating businesses that are licensed to grow cannabis and produce cannabis products from businesses that are licensed to operate premises where cannabis can be sold and consumed.

What’s not included in this referendum?

The proposed Bill does not cover medicinal cannabis, hemp, driving while impaired, or workplace health and safety issues. These are covered by existing laws.

Medicinal cannabis is already legal under the Medicinal Cannabis Scheme.

Source: https://www.referendums.govt.nz/cannabis/index.html

Roy Morgan poll – August 2020

The Roy Morgan polls results for August have been published – remember that unusually they poll right through the month, which may make it harder to analyse the results.

Labour have eased slightly but are still well ahead. National have come up a little but are still a very distant second.

Greens have risen quite a bit over the last two months, but have been regularly polling much higher in Roy Morgan polls than with other major polls.

  • Labour 48% (down 5.5%)
  • National 28.5% (up 2%)
  • Greens 11.5% (up 3.5%)
  • ACT Party 6% (down 0.5%)
  • NZ First 2.5% (up 1)
  • The Opportunities Party 1% (down 0.5%)
  • Maori Party 0.5% (no change)

No result for the JLR/conspiracy parties.

Roy Morgan are usually favourable for the Greens, and this won’t have been affected much by the Green School debacle, but they look sort of safe at this stage.

NZ First have a lot of ground to make up.

National are a way off the pace and look very unlikely to seriously challenge Labour. The biggest point of interest at this stage is whether Labour have enough to govern on their own or not (or with the greens but not needing Green votes to implement their policies of choice).

It’s still six weeks until the election but there would need to be major unexpected events to substantially change the outcome.

Source: https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8509-nz-national-voting-intention-august-2020-202008310343

Combined poll results from Opinion polling for the 2020 New Zealand general election

UMR poll August 2020

The UMR polls seem to be getting published now with a reasonable amount of detail and history. The latest poll results done from July 29 – August 3) (with comparison from their 26 May – 1 June poll):

  • Labour 52% (down from 54)
  • National 28% (down from 30)
  • ACT 5.9% (no result to compare to)
  • Greens 5.4% (was 4)
  • NZ First 5.1% (was 5)

That’s fairly consistent with other polls, which means great for Labour and ACT, awful for National, marginal for Greens and better than other recent polls for NZ First, this must be the poll that Winston likes.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2020_New_Zealand_general_election

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 61%
  • Judith Collins 20%

Source: https://thestandard.org.nz/umr-poll-august-2020/

Collins is rating much better than Simon bridges and Todd Muller but is a long way behind Ardern, and i think will struggle to get much closer going by her recent performance.

Northland electorate may be lost saviour for NZ First

With NZ First polling well below the 5% threshold (except in Winston’s claimed but never revealed polls) an alternative way of keeping them in Parliament is for Shane Jones to win the Northland electorate.

Jones has actually said that if voters want NZ First back in Parliament they should vote for him in Northland. But he has never yet won an electorate (this is the third he has stood in).

And a 1 News/Colmar Brunton poll on Northland doesn’t look promising for Jones or NZ First.

Candidate votes in the 2017 election:

  • Matt King 38.30%
  • Winston Peters 34.81%
  • Willow-Jean Prime 21.61%

Jones has puled out of a Q+A interview this morning saying he had another engagement after previously committing to the interview.

Interesting to see National (41%) close to Labour (38%) on the party polling there – that looks ok for National compared to recent polls, but it isn’t flash compared to the 2017 election result:

  • National 46.35%
  • Labour 30.12%
  • NZ First 13.17%
  • Greens 6.05%
  • Conservatives 0.37%
  • ACT 0.47%

NZ First party vote is well down on that at 7%, and they are headed off by ACT jumping to a remarkable 8%.

Roy Morgan party poll – July 2020

Roy Morgan have just published their July poll results (polling through July so already a bit dated). These are quite similar to the Reid Research results (16-24 July) that National claimed to be a ‘rogue’ poll, and are different to the more recent Colmar Brunton poll (25-29 July).

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”

  • Labour 53.5% (down 1)
  • National 26.5% (down 0.5)
  • Greens 8% (down 1)
  • ACT 6.5% (up 1.5)
  • Others 4.0%
  • NZ First 1.5% (no change)
  • The Opportunities Party 1.5% (no change)
  • Maori Party 0.5% (down 0.5)

Again, most polling was done before the Colmar Brunton poll in late July that appeared to show a bit of a National recovery, but confirms they have been well off the pace since the Covid pandemic struck and since Todd Muller took over leadership from Simon Bridges. It will reflect some leadership change and Boag/Walker/Falloon effects, but is too soon to show much if any Judith Collins effect.

New Zealand Party Vote

That still looks great for Labour and grim for National.

And it is worse for NZ First who are well adrift of the 5% threshold (Q+A will release a poll on the Northland electorate tomorrow which will give an indication whether Shane Jones has any chance there).

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a NZ wide cross-section of 899 electors during July. Of all electors surveyed 4% (down 2%) didn’t name a party.

Source: https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8489-nz-national%20-voting-intention-july-2020-202008070802

This shows all the poll results this term with the divergence of Labour and National this year very obvious:

Both the recent higher results for National are Colmar Brunton – have they been the outlier/rogue? Or are they closer to the mark with both Reid Research and Roy Morgan out of whack?

Colmar Brunton for National: 29% (May), 38% (June), 32% (July). Even if that’s more accurate than the others it is still dismal for National.

And this shows the climb of ACT and decline of NZ First:

Ardern and Labour look to have sidelined Winston Peters and NZ First.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2020_New_Zealand_general_election

Labour + Greens are looking very strong in all polls at 55-65%, but Labour could easily govern alone based on all recent polls, and nothing currently seems to be challenging their dominance as control of Covid looks good and the economic impact has been held at bay for now at least.

Rogue polls versus statistics

It’s common for politicians to claim that unfavourable polls are inaccurate (and nearly as common for them to accept favourable polls as ok).

Gerry Brownlee went as far as claiming a Newshub/Reid Research poll published on Monday was ‘rogue’.

RNZ: Gerry Brownlee questions methodology used in latest Newshub Reid Research poll

The latest Newshub Reid Research poll, released last night, has put the Labour Party on 60.9 percent and National on 25.1 percent, as the election draws closer.

The National Party released a statement just one minute before the news of the poll, dismissing it as rogue.

“I don’t believe it at all, I think it’s entirely out of kilter, it’s absolutely opposite to what we’re hearing in the electorates. The poll itself doesn’t go anywhere near where our polling is, the polling itself is clearly wrong,” party leader Judith Collins said.

National’s election campaign chair and deputy leader Gerry Brownlee told Morning Report that he meant no disrespect to the people who participated or those at Reid Research, but questioned the methodology being used.

“[The methodology used] potentially could not be random. When they applied that methodology, you’re going through selecting people who meet certain criteria that you want to have inside your polls – age groups and diversity, but that doesn’t mean you are always getting a truly random sample of what people are thinking politically.”

He reiterated the same message he had from last night, that statistically one in 20 polls would be wrong and that this was that one.

The poll has a margin of error of 3.1 percent, and was done between 16-24 July with 1000 people surveyed – the majority by phone and the remainder via an internet panel.

One of the problems with Brownlee’s claims is that while statistically a 1 in 20 poll may be outside the margin of error it is very likely to be 10% outside the margin of error. It would be much more likely to be just 0.1% outside the margin of error, or 1% outside.

According to statistical methods with the 95% confidence used is there is a 95% (19 in 20) the 25.1% result for National will be between 22.0% and 28.2%, and a 1 in 20 chance it will be outside this range. But the chances of it being 35% (or 15%) are very slim.

National leaked an internal poll result of 36% (but gave no details about polling period or sample size) – this means there is a 95% chance of it of actually being between 33% and 39%.

The 1 News/Colmar Brunton poll published on Thursday had a different polling period and a different result.

It was published as 32% with a margin of error of 3.1% (at 50%, it reduces the further you get from 50%). But that’s a rounded result, it could have been anywhere between 31.51% and 32.49%.

Accounting for the margin of error that’s a 95% confidence range somewhere between about 28.5% and 35.5%, with a 1 in 20 chance it is outside this.

Labour were published as 53%, but that’s a 95% confidence range somewhere between about 49.5% and 56.5%, still a big lead over National.

So any poll is quite approximate, despite how Newshub and 1 News try to portray their results.

Political news will affect who people think they may vote for. Sensationalised news of poll results is also likely to affect voter decisions.

And these poll results are already out of date. The Colmar Brunton poll published on Thursday:

  • Interviewing took place from Saturday 25 to Wednesday 29 July 2020.
  • Sunday (50% of sample size target was reached on this day).

So political news (including the Monday Reid Research poll) and social contact through the week would barely be reflected in the Colmar poll.

Brownlee making a fuss about a poor poll result drew more attention (some negative) to the result, but will probably only play a very small in the next poll.

Rogue MPs are a much bigger deal than rogue polls.

Polls are a useful but very approximate indicator of voter preferences in the past.

Colmar Brunton poll – July 2020

The latest 1 News/Colmar Brunton poll:

  • Labour 53% (up 2)
  • National 32% (down 6)
  • Greens 5% (down 1)
  • ACT 4.8% (up 1.7)
  • NZ First 2 (up 0.2)
  • New Conservatives 1.2%
  • Maori Party 1%
  • Don’t know/refused 14%

Still obviously very good for Labour.

Bad for National but nowhere near as bad as the Reid Research poll (25%). They could improve more from there but look a long way off challenging Labour.

Probably at National’s expense ACT are in a very good place for them.

Greens are still hovering around the threshold which for them having no electorates is high risk.

Further evidence that voters are giving up on Winston Peters and his party.

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 54% (no change)
  • Judith Collins 20% (up 18)
  • Winston Peters 1% (down 1)
  • David Seymour 1% (up 0.2)
  • Christopher Luxon 1%
  • Billy Te Kahika 1%

That’s a fairly good result for Collins considering how bad National has been over the last few weeks, and how uneven her performance has been.

On trust:

  • Jacinda Ardern: yes 82%, no 16% = +68
  • David Seymour: yes 48%, no 36% = +12%
  • Judith Collins: yes 47%, no 45% = +2
  • James Shaw: yes 47%, no 31% = +16
  • Marama Davidson: yes 44%, no 34% = +10
  • Winston Peters: yes 34%, no 59% = -25

Judith Collins: Approve 50%, Disapprove 23 = +27
– Todd Muller got +10 in June 2020, Simon bridges -40 in May 2020

Polling was done from Saturday 25th to Wednesday 29th July.

More details will come out in while.

Newshub/Reid Research poll July 2020

The latest Newshub/Reid Research poll is great for Labour and terrible for National. which isn’t a surprise after what has happened over the last two weeks.

Greens are just hanging on ov er the threshold, NZ First is still well down in danger territory and ACT will be happy but are not picking up all the support National is shedding.

  • Labour 60.9% (up 4.4)
  • National 25.1% (down 5.5)
  • Greens 5.7% (up 0.2)
  • ACT Party 3.3% (up 1.5)
  • NZ First 2.0% (down 0.7)
  • New Conservatives 0.9% (down 0.1)
  • Maori Party 0.4% (down 0.5)
  • TOP 0.4% (up 0.3)

Newshub: The destruction of National under Judith Collins as party sinks to 25 percent

That’s a stupid but typical headline.

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 62% (up 2.5)
  • Judith Collins 14.6% (up 11.5)
  • Simon Bridges 5.5%

Collins is higher than Bridges ever got but still nowhere near challenging Ardern, who looks untouchable at the moment.

Jacinda Ardern still soaring as preferred Prime Minister – but Judith Collins is convinced she’ll win

The latest Newshub-Reid Research Poll was conducted between 16-24 July 2020. One thousand people were surveyed, 700 by telephone including both landlines and mobiles and 300 by internet panel. It has a margin of error of 3.1 percent.

Jacinda Ardern:

  • Performing well 85.3%
  • Performing poorly 8.2%

It would take a miracle to stop Ardern (aka Labour) from romping in this election. The only query seems to be at this stage whether they will be able to form a government on their own or not.

Judith Collins:

  • Performing well 39.5%
  • Performing poorly 30.8%

Last poll Bridges 21.6% thought bridges was performing well and 59.5% thought he was performing poorly. Collins is doing much better than thatt but National MPs have let the party down badly.

This is grim for Collins but National has had a series of crises that can’t be blamed on her. Bridges was doing badly, Todd Muller made things worse.

Euthanasia and cannabis polls

Research NZ has bing doing polls related to the referendums on euthanasia and cannabis.

Asked whether they were in favour or not in favour of the legislation which allows terminally ill adults to request a medically assisted death:

  • 64% in favour
  • 18% not in favour
  • 7% don’t know

Research NZ managing partner Emanuel Kalafatelis said 52 percent of survey respondents said they had recently seen or heard information about legalising euthanasia, while 55 percent said they had thought about the issue and about a third had discussed it with their friends and family.

…the figure shows a softening in the level of support and when the same question was asked in December last year approximately 70 percent of respondents were in favour of the legislation, while the number of those strongly in favour of the legislation dropped from 50 percent six months ago to 33 percent today.

Kalafatelis said there is a relatively higher level of support among older age groups, but the level of support across all age groups is well over 50 percent.

“Are you in favour or not in favour of a government controlling by law how cannabis is grown, manufactured and sold in New Zealand for recreational use.”

  • 43% in favour
  • 39% against

These results do not show any major difference with the results from the cannabis poll taken six months ago, he said.

Kalafatelis said there is quite significant support for legalising cannabis among younger age groups, with the level of support at 57 percent amongst the 18 to 24 year olds.

Report: Kiwis back euthanasia, split on legalising cannabis – poll

Official information:

Cannabis legalisation and control referendum

End of Life Choice referendum