Little change in latest 1 News/Colmar Brunton poll

The latest Colmar Brunton polling was done this week (10-14 October) and with regular recent polling gives us the best idea of support levels and trends, but one of the most notable aspects is there is little change from their last poll.

It clearly confirmed that National+ACT are a long way from challenging, with their combined total 39% – on last night’s debate Judith Collins looked worn out and her body language conceded a demoralising defeat, while Jacinda Ardern looked happy and positive (most of the time).

  • Labour Party: 46% (down 1%)
  • National Party: 31% (down 1%)
  • ACT: 8% (no change)
  • Green Party: 8% (up 2%)
  • New Zealand First: 3% (up 1%)
  • New Conservative: 2% (up 1%)
  • The Opportunities Party: 1% (down 1%)
  • Advance New Zealand: 1% (no change)
  • Māori Party: 1% (up 1%)
  • Don’t know: 7% (down 1%)
  • Refused: 8% (up 3%)

The movements are insignificant, apart perhaps from the Green rise.

Labour is borderline for being able to rule with a majority. It depends on how many small party wasted votes there are – on these numbers about 8% will fail to reach the threshold so 46% is about half of the votes that will count.

It’s really annoying that 1 News only publish results rounded to the nearest whole number (about two days after 1 News publish Colmar Brunton posts more accurate results). This can distort movements of the smaller parties in their news coverage.

NZ First up 1% may look promising for them, but they apparently rose from 2.4% to 2.7%, which statistically is an insignificant change.

It’s worth looking at the last four Colmar Brunton results for the main parties. They have polled weekly 17-21 September, 23-27 September, 3-7 October and 10-14 October.

  • Labour 48, 47, 47, 46
  • National 31, 33, 32, 31
  • ACT 7, 8, 8, 8
  • Greens 6, 7, 6, 8
  • NZ First 2.4, 1.4, 2.4, 2.7

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 55% (up 5%)
  • Judith Collins 20% (down 3%
  • David Seymour 3% (up 1%)
  • Winston Peters 1%

That suggests the Ardern versus Collins aspect of the campaign has worked better for Ardern.

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/1-news-colmar-brunton-poll-labour-maintains-strong-lead-over-national-greens-climb

About 1.7 million votes have already been cast, which is half the total enrolled of 3,436,178

https://elections.nz/stats-and-research/enrolment-statistics/enrolment-by-general-electorate?name=all

1 News Colmar Brunton poll – little change

A 1 News/Colmar Brunton poll (with the previous two polls from 17-21 September and 23-27 September in brackets):

  • Labour 47% (48, 47)
  • National 32% (31, 33)
  • ACT 8% (7, 8)
  • Greens 6% (6, 7)
  • NZ First 2.4% (2.4, 1.4)
  • TOP 2% (1.1, 1.0)
  • New Conservatives 1% (1.6, 1.4)
  • Advance NZ 1% (0.8, 0.6)
  • Maori Party 0.2 (0.9, 0.8)

Polling period 3-7 October 2020.

Very little change there from two weeks ago. Party support seems to have set in with little moving it.

National+Act on 40% still well short of challenging Labour or Labour+Greens.

Greens look ok but will still be worried about the threshold, especially if they underperform polling as they have done in some elections. And Labour may stop them picking up as many overseas votes.

NZ First still look to have failed to fire this time. Today’s news of the NZ First foundation in court again won’t help.

New Conservatives claimed to be polling around 4 but no published poll comes anywhere near that.

Advance NZ aren’t \making much progress.

Don’t know or refused 13% (up 2) – but these tend to not change the numbers much.

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 50% (54, 54)
  • Judith Collins 23% (20, 23)
  • David Seymour 2% (2, 2)
  • Winston Peters 1% (2, 1)

Don’t know or refused 17% (up 3).

Up to yesterday 478,860 people had already voted.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2020_New_Zealand_general_election

There is a small party debate on TV1 tonight from 7-8pm, not sure why it is shorter than the two leader debates with more leaders participating.

Small movements in another Colmar Brunton poll

We are finally getting a few polls leading into the election, with 1 News/Colmar Brunton releasing another poll, this one with polling done following last week’s leaders debate. This may have slightly lifted National support.

And Labour have slipped enough to raise doubts they may be able to govern alone, especially with a bit more of a Green rise.

  • Labour 47% (down 1)
  • National 33% (up 2)
  • ACT 8% (up 1)
  • Greens 7% (up 1)
  • NZ First 1% (down 1)
  • New Conservatives 1% (down 1)
  • TOP 1%
  • Maori Party 1%
  • Advance NZ 1%

Refuse to answer – 3%
Undecided – 8%

Polling was done from Wednesday 23 to Sunday 27 September.

These are well within margin of error shifts.

Greens are looking healthier but will need to keep fighting for every vote they can get. They sometimes do better in polls than elections.

Winston Peters won’t quite have to rename his party NZ Last, but this loos increasingly like his last stint in Parliament.

The other small parties look like they are getting little to no traction.

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 54% (no change)
  • Judith Collins 23% (up 5)
  • David Seymour 2% (no change)
  • Winston Peters 1% (no change)

That’s a semi significant rise for Collins but she is still a long way off the pace.

1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll: Labour and Greens in driving seat, but ACT still strong

1 News/Colmar Brunton poll

The latest 1 News/Colmar Brunton poll:

  • Labour 48% (July 53%)
  • National 31% (July 32%)
  • ACT 7% (July 4.8%)
  • Greens 6% (July 5%)
  • NZ First 2% (July 2.0%)
  • New Conservatives 2% (July 1.2%)
  • Maori Party (July 1.0%)
  • TOP (July 1%)
  • Advance NZ 1%

These are rounds they do for their initial results and will be updated when the more accurate results are available.

Their last poll was done 25-29 July.

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 54% (July 54%)
  • Judith Collins 18% (July 20%)
  • David Seymour 2% (July 1%)
  • Winston Peters 2% (July 1%)

So as expected Labour are still looking very comfortable despite dropping a bit, but if they come down much more and Greens survive, as looks more likely, it may be a two party Government.

Greens seem to be benefiting from the ‘not Labour on their own’ sentiment.

National are just not making up any ground 9althoughb are higher than on some other recent polls).

ACT will remain confident.

NZ First look like they are being largely dismissed by voters. It’s going to be very tough for Peters from here, with Jones seeming to have pretty much conceded Northland already.

New Conservatives are gaining ground but probably too little, too late.

Maori Party have to win an electorate to get back in.

Advance NZ make their first showing but are a long way from the threshold.

Colmar Brunton poll – July 2020

The latest 1 News/Colmar Brunton poll:

  • Labour 53% (up 2)
  • National 32% (down 6)
  • Greens 5% (down 1)
  • ACT 4.8% (up 1.7)
  • NZ First 2 (up 0.2)
  • New Conservatives 1.2%
  • Maori Party 1%
  • Don’t know/refused 14%

Still obviously very good for Labour.

Bad for National but nowhere near as bad as the Reid Research poll (25%). They could improve more from there but look a long way off challenging Labour.

Probably at National’s expense ACT are in a very good place for them.

Greens are still hovering around the threshold which for them having no electorates is high risk.

Further evidence that voters are giving up on Winston Peters and his party.

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 54% (no change)
  • Judith Collins 20% (up 18)
  • Winston Peters 1% (down 1)
  • David Seymour 1% (up 0.2)
  • Christopher Luxon 1%
  • Billy Te Kahika 1%

That’s a fairly good result for Collins considering how bad National has been over the last few weeks, and how uneven her performance has been.

On trust:

  • Jacinda Ardern: yes 82%, no 16% = +68
  • David Seymour: yes 48%, no 36% = +12%
  • Judith Collins: yes 47%, no 45% = +2
  • James Shaw: yes 47%, no 31% = +16
  • Marama Davidson: yes 44%, no 34% = +10
  • Winston Peters: yes 34%, no 59% = -25

Judith Collins: Approve 50%, Disapprove 23 = +27
– Todd Muller got +10 in June 2020, Simon bridges -40 in May 2020

Polling was done from Saturday 25th to Wednesday 29th July.

More details will come out in while.

Another awful poll for National (and great for Labour)

Today’s 1 News/Colmar Brunton poll is bad news for National, and very similar to the Newshub/Reid Research poll out earlier this week and also a recent leaked UMR poll:

  • Labour 59%
  • National 29%
  • Greens 4.7%
  • NZ First 3 %
  • ACT 2%
  • Maori Party 1%
  • The Opportunities Party 1%

Refused to answer 5%, undecided 11%. Fieldwork conducted 16-20 May.

The ‘preferred Prime Minister was as bad (and exceptional for Ardern):

  • Jacinda Ardern 63% (+21 from last October))
  • Simon Bridges 5% (-6)
  • Judith Collins 3%
  • Winston Peters 1% (-2)
  • Nikki Kaye 0.4%
  • Todd Muller 0.2%

Notable also is that both Greens and NZ First are under the threshold, and Peters is also dropping to negligible ‘preferred’.

So Labour very strong, Act ok (if Seymour can hold Epsom), Greens in the danger zone and NZ First/Peters really struggling.

Of course tomorrow’s National leadership showdown adds importance to this result.

David Farrar very quick off the mark with the poll results but no commentary: Latest poll
(but his Curia poll average hasn’t been updated for three months).

And Greg at The Standard was ready to rumble: The Colmar Brunton poll

1 News Colmar Brunton poll – December 2019

What is likely to be the last political poll of the year, from 1 News/Colmar Brunton, has national in a strong position, and ACT rewarded for David Seymour’s work on the End of Life Choice Bill.

  • National 46% (down 1)
  • Labour 39% (down 1)
  • Greens 7% (no change)
  • NZ First 4% (no change)
  • ACT 2% (up 1)
  • The Opportunities Party 1%
  • New Conservatives 1%
  • Maori Party 1%

Don’t know or refused to answer – 17%

(Results rounded to the nearest whole number so small party results and movements can be exaggerated) .

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 36% (down 2)
  • Simon Bridges 10% (up 1)
  • Judith Collins 4% (up 1)
  • Winston Peters 3% (down 1)

Between November 23-27, 1006 eligible voters were polled by landline (504) and mobile phone (502). The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level. The data has been weighted to align with Stats NZ population counts.

Recent polls charted here: http://www.polled.co.nz/

Two political polls with similar results

Newshub released a Reid Research a poll on Sunday with ridiculous headlines and claims. 1 News released a Colmar Brunton poll last night with less dramatic but still over the top claims. Polls are just polls, especially this far from an election, but they try to get value from the expense of polling by making stories out of them that aren’t justified.

Last time the two polled the biggest talking point was how different their results were. The Reid Research poll was regarded as an outlier, being quite different to any other polls this term.

The most notable thing about the polls this time is that the results are very similar, taking into account margins of error of about 3% for the larger results, and the fact that Colmar results are rounded to the nearest whole number.

  • National: RR 43.9% (+6.5%), CB 47% (+2)
  • Labour: RR 41.6% (-9.2), CB 40% (-3)
  • Greens: RR 6.3% (+0.1), CB 7% (+1)
  • NZ First: RR 4.0% (+1.2), CB 4% (+1)
  • ACT: RR 1.4% (+0.6), CB 1% (-)
  • TOP: RR 1.1% (+1.0), CB 1% (-)
  • Maori Party: RR 0.7% (+0.2), CB 1% (-)

I don’;t think it’s surprising at this stage to see National a bit ahead of Labour, Labour has had a mixed month or two and is struggling to make major progress due to the restraint of coalition partner NZ First.

Green support looks at a safe level, but is well below what they were getting last term (about half).

NZ First are still polling below the threshold and will be in a battle to stay in Parliament.

Is is fairly normal these days there are a number of borderline governing scenarios with these numbers, with National+ACT and Labour+Greens thereabouts but not certainties.

A lot may depend on whether NZ First make the threshold or not next election. Both other times they have been in a coalition government they have lost support at the next election.

Trends from Opinion polling for the next New Zealand general election (Wikipedia):

That shows the last Reid Research anomaly well.

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern: RR 38.4% (-10.6), CB 38% (-3)
  • Simon Bridges: RR 6.7% (+2.5), CB 9% (+3)
  • Judith Collins: 5.2% (-1.9), CB 5%
  • Winston Peters: CB 4%

Ardern a bit down, Bridges a bit up but still a big difference.

Newshub also did a poll on performance:

  • Ardern: performing well 62.4%, performing poorly 23.1%
  • Bridges: performing well 23.9%, performing poorly 52.7%

UPDATE: 1 News/Colmar Brunton have also started asking a similar question:

  •  Ardern handling her job as Prime Minister:  +33
    approve 62%
    disapprove 29%
    don’t know or refused 8%
  • Bridges’ handling his job as National Party leader: -22
    approve 29%
    disapprove 51%
    don’t know or refused 20%

Ardern performance is well above her party support, while Bridges is well below National support (about half).

  • Newshub-Reid Research Poll was conducted between 2-9 October 2019.
    1000 people were surveyed, 700 by telephone and 300 by internet panel
  • 1 News-Colmar Brunton poll conducted between 5-9 October
    1008 eligible voters were polled by landline (502) and mobile phone (506)

So both now rely on some polling by something other than landline, Reid Research 30% by internet panel and Colmar Brunton 50% by mobile phone.

1 News link here.

Newshub/Reid Search links here and here.

The Newshun headline says “Jacinda Ardern, Labour take massive tumble in new Newshub-Reid Research poll” but a more accurate description would have been “Newshub poll looks more likely following last rogue poll”. It wasn’t a massive tumble for Ardern, more like a large correction by Reid Research.

1 News/Colmar Brunton poll – June 2019

Party support:

  • Labour 42% (down 6)
  • National 44% (up 4)
  • Greens 6% (no change)
  • NZ First 5% (Up 1)
  • ACT 1% (no change)
  • New Conservatives 1%
  • The Opportunities Party 1%

Refuse to answer 4%, undecided 10%. Fieldwork conducted 4-8 June 2019

This is a very different result to the Newshub/Reid Research poll – June 2019.

The Reid Research poll was conducted between May 29 and June 7.

The budget was released on May 29.

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 45% (down 6)
  • Judith Collins 6% (up 1)
  • Simon Bridges 5% (no change)
  • Winston Peters 5% (no change)

This is sort of interesting but doesn’t mean a great deal. National back up a bit, Labour have eased off an unusual high at a favourable time for them and Ardern.

 

Majority support stronger firearms laws – poll

A 1 News/Colmar Brunton poll has only 14% of people opposing the new firearms laws.

1 News  New poll: 61% of New Zealanders back gun ban in wake of Christchurch atrocity

The majority of New Zealand voters believe the Government’s swift move to enact new gun laws has been “about right” in the wake of the Christchurch terrorist attacks.

In the latest 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll, eligible New Zealand voters were asked what they thought of the Government’s moves.

  • 61%  thought the changes were about right
  • 19% thought it did not go far enough
  • 14% thought it went too far
  • 5% didn’t know
  • 2% refused to answer.

So 80% thought the changes were ‘about right’ or didn’t go far enough.

The Government has indicated this was the ‘first tranche’ of changes and intend to do more, but will wisely take more to look into what else should be done.

Between April 6 and 10, 1009 eligible voters were polled via landline and mobile phone. The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95 per cent confidence level.