Colmar Brunton poll – little movement

A day after the Newshub/Reid Research poll another poll with largely similar results, this one from 1 News/Colmar Brunton:

  • National 45% (up 1)
  • Labour 43% (no change)
  • Greens 5% (down 1)
  • NZ First 4.2% (down 0.8)
  • Maori Party 0.9% (down 0.3)

Nothing much new there. The changes are insignificant.

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 41% (up 1)
  • Simon Bridges 12% (up 2)
  • Winston Peters 4% (down 1)
  • Judith Collins 2% (no change)

So no boost (or loss) for Labour after the budget, and National support remains high despite a lack of traction for Bridges.

Political coverage upheaval at 1 News

Political journalists at 1 News are deserting faster than National MPs after a change of leadership.

NZH: TVNZ reporter quits as new leader steps in

1 NEWS reporter Jessica Mutch has been in her role as TVNZ political editor for just over a month and it seems her Wellington colleagues, Katie Bradford and Andrea Vance are a little miffed they did not get the job.

Vance has quit the national broadcaster while Bradford has asked for reassignment to Auckland after they both missed out.

TVNZ, Mutch, Bradford and Vance did not want to comment but a spokeswoman for TVNZ confirmed the newsroom had been told of Vance’s and Bradford’s moves.

Vance, from Northern Ireland, has been with 1 NEWS since 2015.

Bradford, daughter of former Green MP Sue Bradford, has been with 1 NEWS since 2013 and Spy understands she made no secret of her desire to return to Auckland if she didn’t land the political editor role.

Mutch, 33, was based in the press gallery for eight years, and was TVNZ’s deputy political editor before moving to London as Europe correspondent.

So it’s not just political parties who have power struggles and departing unsuccessful candidates.

Dann leaving, and now followed by Vance and Bradford leaving, forces major changes to 1 News political coverage.

Dann announced a move to a full time role at Q&A in January.

Vance has been reported to be going back to Stuff. Her Twitter profile:”Northern Irish journalist. Can’t stop moving.” I don’t know if that has been recently revised.

 

A pointless poll on pregnancy and politics

1 News got Colmar Brunton to do a pointless poll on Jacindas Ardern’s performance as PM while being a mother. It is likely to be a month or two before she becomes a mother, so how does anyone know?

1 News: Becoming a mum won’t have an effect on Jacinda Ardern’s performance as PM – 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll

Political commentator Jennifer Lees-Marshment says in an ideal world it would not be a topic for discussion.

Media commissioning polls to create populist ‘news’ is not ideal either, but it has become normal click-bait creating practice.

Experts say that the Prime Minister is a role model for working women.

Global Women board member Felicity Evans says “seeing her adequately and brilliantly doing her job whilst being a mum and being pregnant. It’s perfect.”

That sounds like just one ‘expert’. Using terms like ‘brilliantly ‘ and ‘perfectly’ doesn’t sound like objective expert assessment.

In response to that Ms Ardern says, “I’m no superwoman and I wouldn’t want to give that impression.”

“The fact that I am able to do what I’m doing and be a mother at the same time is because I have a huge amount of support around me.”

Support is very important, and it will be particularly important once Ardern has her baby. It will still be a big challenge for her – she may take it in her political stride, but there is no way of knowing how it will go until it happens.

By then 1 News will have probably moved on the more important polls, like what the baby’s name should be.

Colmar Brunton poll – little change

Polls have been scarce lately. 1 news have their second poll of the year. It doesn’t show anything drastic – a bit of movement from Labour to their Government partners.

  • National 44% (up 1)
  • Labour 43% (down 5)
  • Greens 6% (up 1)
  • NZ First 5% (up 2)
  • Maori Party 1%

So Labour have eased back a bit after a difficult period, and National have held up despite the exit of Bill English and Steven Joyce – it is the first poll since Simon Bridges took over leadership.

Greens and NZ First have both improved marginally (at Labour’s expense).

  • Refuse to answer 4%
  • Undecided 8% (down 1)

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 37% (down 4)
  • Simon Bridges 10% (up 9)
  • Winston Peters 5% (up 1)

The gloss seems to have worn off Ardern a bit. It’s early for Bridges, he will still hardly be known by most of the electorate.

Peters doesn’t seem to be liked outside NZ First support.

Poll conducted 7-11 April 2018.

What try hard bollocks.

National are likely to be pleased a change of leadership has barely changed their support.

 

Labour jump in Colmar poll

Labour have jumped up to 48% in the latest 1 News/Colmar Brunton poll. National has slipped a bit with Greens and NZ First struggling.

  • Labour 48% (up 9)
  • National 43% (down 3)
  • Greens 5% (down 2)
  • NZ First 3% (down 2)
  • Maori Party 1%
  • TOP 1%

That will shake up the parties and pundits. It’s not a big drop for National but they will be worried about a downward direction with English stepping down, but it’s a major bump for Labour, at the expense of their partner parties in Government.

Ardern is up 4 to 41% in preferred Prime Minister, Bill English dropped but is irrelevant now in polls.

Praise and hate after Hosking and Street announcement

I never cared for Mike Hosking. I rarely watched Seven Sharp, it wasn’t a programme that attracted my attention.

In the age of celebrity some media portrayed the announcement last night that Hosking and co-host Toni Street (she was a face without a name to me) were finishing their stint on Seven Sharp as ‘Breaking News!’ That’s become normal lame, ‘breaking news’ is broken.

Of course 1 News praised their highly paid employees, but some of the reaction showed how much hate is expressed on social media.

1 News: Watch as Toni Street and Mike Hosking say they’re stepping down from Seven Sharp after four years co-hosting show

After four years, Toni Street and Mike Hosking are stepping down as co-hosts of TVNZ 1’s Seven Sharp.

Toni is cutting back on her weeknight work commitments to spend more time with her family.

“This decision has not come easy for me, but with two young children, I want to be home more often in the evenings for them.”

Mike says the feelings were mutual.

“This was particularly important to me personally to honour what has been one of the best combinations on television,” he said.

Hosking, like many media ‘personalities’, are not shy to praise themselves.

“That given we started together we end together. It is also always good to leave on your own terms and at your own time, often a rare trick in media.”

John Gillespie, TVNZ’s Head of News and Current Affairs, said the company was working through potential opportunities with Mike for the future.

“Toni and Mike are stepping down tomorrow night. They’re a dynamic and great team and together they’ve made a big difference for viewers and TVNZ. Their leadership at 7pm has been a defining force in our media landscape.”

More media self praise, somewhat embellished. Leadership? Leaders of the trite and banal perhaps, that’s the direction media seems to view it’s salvation as growing numbers of people desert broadcast television.

1 News managed to select some praise of the two people changing jobs ‘A great duo’ – Viewers react to news Mike Hosking and Toni Street leaving Seven Sharp.

Friday night’s programme will be their last, the pair announced at the end of tonight’s show.

It was a show, largely entertainment. For some – I just didn’t watch what wasn’t my style of programme.

But Hosking has been a polarising figure in politics. He has capably conducted election debates, but on shows and radion was seem by the left to be a right wing enemy, so attracted a lot of vitriol.

And on his announcement last night the hate flowed as freely as the praise.

A thread at The Standard included:

 Bye bye Mike…. from 7 Sharp…. And there is now dancing in the streets!

Good job. TVNZ have been a nest of right wing vipers for too long.

TVNZ is a neoliberal propaganda outlet.
It’s managers, editors and senior business and political staff all work towards the goal of disseminating such propaganda.

I agree. Comical Ali was more impartial than Hoskings.

Hosking was the propaganda wing for John Key

He’s also quite thick, has almost no education, and makes no effort to inform himself before one of his drunken rants.

Yep, Hosking is a toxic little twerp who hates Labour so screw him.

Typical ugliness in politics and media.

Similar on Reddit: Toni Street and Mike Hosking stepping down from Seven Sharp after four years co-hosting show

🎶 It’s beginning to look a lot like Christmas 🎶

It’s the most wonderful time.. Of the yearrr

Now Mike can finally follow his dream of becoming a National MP! /s (god forbid)

Stepping down? They couldn’t possibly get any lower.

Four years too late.

Leighton gone, hosking on the way out, now we just need matthew hooten to join gloria vale and life will be so serene

now we just need Mark Richardson to contract some sort of disease that silences him

National gone. Hosking out. It’s like the country is waking from a boomer-centric lapel tweaking nightmare.

Whenever I had the misfortune of seeing these clowns on TV I always felt sorry for Toni. If I had seen her in isolation I would have just dismissed her as the vapid bint that she is. Mike has a powerful effect.

There is so much good news this week in terms of NZ becoming a progressive country again Im struggling to know where to look! I wish them both well in their personal lives and Toni in her future endeavours….but Hosking you are a selfish, biased and regressive prick who has no place in public broadcasting…please piss off from NZ media forever you are not needed in this country.

The intolerance, immaturity and toxicity prevalent on many online forums is something that will likely continue.

It’s a shame but we seem to live in an increasingly childish, trivialised and abusive society.

An online opportunity for more free speech serves to highlight, time and time again, the ugly side of human communication.

 

Balanced politics, and unbalanced Stuff

On the eve of the election Stuff has a very unbalanced political page, favouring Winston Peters, Labour and Greens.

StuffElectionEve2017

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics

And that is negative for National and TOP.

The Herald is more general and more balanced:

NZHElectionEve2017

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/politics/news/headlines.cfm?c_id=280

Very balanced at RNZ:

RNZElectionEve2017

Very good to see information for voters prominent at Newshub:

NewshubElectionEve2017

http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/election.html

The two large parties dominate at 1 News:

1NewsElectionEve2017

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/election

The Spinoff features the last pre-election poll from Newshub (asimilar result to Colmar Brunton) plus general election information.

TheSpinoffElectionEve2017

https://thespinoff.co.nz/category/politics/

Newsroom focuses on Maori (not positively), Labour and the Greens.

Overall today’s election coverage looks very balanced, apart from Stuff in particular and also Newsroom.

 

1 News Colmar Brunton pre-election poll

The last 1 News Colmar Brunton poll before the election:

  • National 46% (last week 40%, previous 39%)
  • Labour 37% (last week 44%, previous 43%)
  • Greens 8% (last week 7%, previous 5%)
  • NZ First 5%  (last week 6%, previous 9%)
  • TOP 2.0% rounded (last week 2.0%, previous 1.9%)
  • Maori Party 1% rounded (last week 1.1%, previous 2.0%)
  • ACT 0.3% (last week 0.6%, previous 0.1%)

Don’t know 7%, Refused 6% (+1)

Momentum has swung back to National at the right time of the campaign for them, and the wrong time for Labour, who are shedding support all round.

Greens will be pleased to by lifting above the danger zone, but that will be at Labour’s expense.

NZ First continue to slip and are now in real danger of missing the threshold cut.

If NZ First survive then they may be in a deciding position. However if the miss the threshold and Peters loses Northland then National could rule again perhaps with ACT and the Maori Party in support.

Polling 16-19 September
Last week’s 9-13 September.
Previous polling period was 2-6 September.

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Bill English 37% (up from 32%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 31% (down from 34%)
  • Winston Peters 6% (5%)

Detailed results up to last week: http://www.colmarbrunton.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/Prelim_1-News-Colmar-Brunton-Poll-report-9-13-Sep.pdf

 

 

 

1 News/Colmar Brunton poll

The latest 1 News/Colmar Brunton poll:

  • Labour 44% (last week 43%, previous 43%)
  • National 40% (last week 39%, previous 41%)
  • Greens 7% (last week 5%, previous 5%)
  • NZ First 6%  (last week 9%, previous 8%)
  • TOP 2.0% rounded (last week 1.9%, previous 0.9%)
  • Maori Party 1.1% rounded (last week 2.0%, previous 0.5%)
  • ACT 0.6% (last week 0.1%, previous 0.3%)

The political pendulum has swung again – but this is fairly consistent with last week’s poll.

Greens will be happy to by recovering, but NZ First are trending down.

Labour + Greens would make a majority together, alternately Labour + NZ First. That puts Labour in a strong position.

Polling 9-13 September.
Last week’s polling period was 2-6 September.
The previous polling period was 26-30 August.

However there is talk that one or possibly two other polls have National slightly ahead. Labour’s tax u-turn today suggests they have concerns about their own polling.

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 34% (down from 35%)
  • Bill English 32 (up from 31%)
  • Winston Peters 5% (no change)

The full report from last week’s poll (they delay posting this by a couple of days).

Undecideds tonight were 14% – up 4pts.

Still a lot of volatility, so the the election is still up for grabs.

Small party leaders debate

 

Tonight at 7:00 pm on TV1 there will be a leaders debate that excludes the two main party leaders).

Taking part:

  • Damian Light (United Future)
  • James Shaw (Greens)
  • Marama Fox (Maori Party)
  • David Seymour (ACT)

This is the debate that Gareth Morgan went to court to try to get in, and failed. And Winston Peters thinks it’s beneath his stature to take part with minnow party leaders.

It will be moderated by Corin Dann (Mike Hosking is sick so had to step down).


I thought it was an interesting debate.

James Shaw looked like he really didn’t want to be there, perhaps a very hard month is taking it’s toll. He was a bit robotic with the standard Green spiel. And at the end when he said he was really excited about the prospects of a Labour Green (and maybe Maori) government he looked like it was his turn to change the nappies.

But he had probably the best line of the night.

Peters didn’t want to take part supposedly because English and Ardern weren’t involved, so in his absence the others took him apart a number of times.

David Seymour was dominant, too much so at times, but he had plenty of opportunity to promote his cause – enough party votes to get at least one fellow ACT MP working with him for the next term.

Marama Fox was the star performer, an informed, eloquent and passionate promoter for her Maori constituency. It will be a real shame if she doesn’t make it back into Parliament.

Damian Light’s presence highlighted the stupidity of TVNZ rules for who could and who couldn’t take part (Gareth Morgan would have made it a better debate), and his nervousness showed at times, but for his first time on the big political stage he did very well, stating clearly and knowledgeable what UF’s policy positions were.

All four who took part had a decent chance to promote themselves a bit, but on a Friday night the audience was probably not very attracted or engaged.

But it was a useful albeit flawed part of our democratic process.