1 News/Colmar Brunton poll

The latest 1 News/Colmar Brunton poll:

  • Labour 48% (July 53%)
  • National 31% (July 32%)
  • ACT 7% (July 4.8%)
  • Greens 6% (July 5%)
  • NZ First 2% (July 2.0%)
  • New Conservatives 2% (July 1.2%)
  • Maori Party (July 1.0%)
  • TOP (July 1%)
  • Advance NZ 1%

These are rounds they do for their initial results and will be updated when the more accurate results are available.

Their last poll was done 25-29 July.

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 54% (July 54%)
  • Judith Collins 18% (July 20%)
  • David Seymour 2% (July 1%)
  • Winston Peters 2% (July 1%)

So as expected Labour are still looking very comfortable despite dropping a bit, but if they come down much more and Greens survive, as looks more likely, it may be a two party Government.

Greens seem to be benefiting from the ‘not Labour on their own’ sentiment.

National are just not making up any ground 9althoughb are higher than on some other recent polls).

ACT will remain confident.

NZ First look like they are being largely dismissed by voters. It’s going to be very tough for Peters from here, with Jones seeming to have pretty much conceded Northland already.

New Conservatives are gaining ground but probably too little, too late.

Maori Party have to win an electorate to get back in.

Advance NZ make their first showing but are a long way from the threshold.

Colmar Brunton poll – July 2020

The latest 1 News/Colmar Brunton poll:

  • Labour 53% (up 2)
  • National 32% (down 6)
  • Greens 5% (down 1)
  • ACT 4.8% (up 1.7)
  • NZ First 2 (up 0.2)
  • New Conservatives 1.2%
  • Maori Party 1%
  • Don’t know/refused 14%

Still obviously very good for Labour.

Bad for National but nowhere near as bad as the Reid Research poll (25%). They could improve more from there but look a long way off challenging Labour.

Probably at National’s expense ACT are in a very good place for them.

Greens are still hovering around the threshold which for them having no electorates is high risk.

Further evidence that voters are giving up on Winston Peters and his party.

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 54% (no change)
  • Judith Collins 20% (up 18)
  • Winston Peters 1% (down 1)
  • David Seymour 1% (up 0.2)
  • Christopher Luxon 1%
  • Billy Te Kahika 1%

That’s a fairly good result for Collins considering how bad National has been over the last few weeks, and how uneven her performance has been.

On trust:

  • Jacinda Ardern: yes 82%, no 16% = +68
  • David Seymour: yes 48%, no 36% = +12%
  • Judith Collins: yes 47%, no 45% = +2
  • James Shaw: yes 47%, no 31% = +16
  • Marama Davidson: yes 44%, no 34% = +10
  • Winston Peters: yes 34%, no 59% = -25

Judith Collins: Approve 50%, Disapprove 23 = +27
– Todd Muller got +10 in June 2020, Simon bridges -40 in May 2020

Polling was done from Saturday 25th to Wednesday 29th July.

More details will come out in while.

Another awful poll for National (and great for Labour)

Today’s 1 News/Colmar Brunton poll is bad news for National, and very similar to the Newshub/Reid Research poll out earlier this week and also a recent leaked UMR poll:

  • Labour 59%
  • National 29%
  • Greens 4.7%
  • NZ First 3 %
  • ACT 2%
  • Maori Party 1%
  • The Opportunities Party 1%

Refused to answer 5%, undecided 11%. Fieldwork conducted 16-20 May.

The ‘preferred Prime Minister was as bad (and exceptional for Ardern):

  • Jacinda Ardern 63% (+21 from last October))
  • Simon Bridges 5% (-6)
  • Judith Collins 3%
  • Winston Peters 1% (-2)
  • Nikki Kaye 0.4%
  • Todd Muller 0.2%

Notable also is that both Greens and NZ First are under the threshold, and Peters is also dropping to negligible ‘preferred’.

So Labour very strong, Act ok (if Seymour can hold Epsom), Greens in the danger zone and NZ First/Peters really struggling.

Of course tomorrow’s National leadership showdown adds importance to this result.

David Farrar very quick off the mark with the poll results but no commentary: Latest poll
(but his Curia poll average hasn’t been updated for three months).

And Greg at The Standard was ready to rumble: The Colmar Brunton poll

1 News Colmar Brunton poll – December 2019

What is likely to be the last political poll of the year, from 1 News/Colmar Brunton, has national in a strong position, and ACT rewarded for David Seymour’s work on the End of Life Choice Bill.

  • National 46% (down 1)
  • Labour 39% (down 1)
  • Greens 7% (no change)
  • NZ First 4% (no change)
  • ACT 2% (up 1)
  • The Opportunities Party 1%
  • New Conservatives 1%
  • Maori Party 1%

Don’t know or refused to answer – 17%

(Results rounded to the nearest whole number so small party results and movements can be exaggerated) .

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 36% (down 2)
  • Simon Bridges 10% (up 1)
  • Judith Collins 4% (up 1)
  • Winston Peters 3% (down 1)

Between November 23-27, 1006 eligible voters were polled by landline (504) and mobile phone (502). The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level. The data has been weighted to align with Stats NZ population counts.

Recent polls charted here: http://www.polled.co.nz/

Two political polls with similar results

Newshub released a Reid Research a poll on Sunday with ridiculous headlines and claims. 1 News released a Colmar Brunton poll last night with less dramatic but still over the top claims. Polls are just polls, especially this far from an election, but they try to get value from the expense of polling by making stories out of them that aren’t justified.

Last time the two polled the biggest talking point was how different their results were. The Reid Research poll was regarded as an outlier, being quite different to any other polls this term.

The most notable thing about the polls this time is that the results are very similar, taking into account margins of error of about 3% for the larger results, and the fact that Colmar results are rounded to the nearest whole number.

  • National: RR 43.9% (+6.5%), CB 47% (+2)
  • Labour: RR 41.6% (-9.2), CB 40% (-3)
  • Greens: RR 6.3% (+0.1), CB 7% (+1)
  • NZ First: RR 4.0% (+1.2), CB 4% (+1)
  • ACT: RR 1.4% (+0.6), CB 1% (-)
  • TOP: RR 1.1% (+1.0), CB 1% (-)
  • Maori Party: RR 0.7% (+0.2), CB 1% (-)

I don’;t think it’s surprising at this stage to see National a bit ahead of Labour, Labour has had a mixed month or two and is struggling to make major progress due to the restraint of coalition partner NZ First.

Green support looks at a safe level, but is well below what they were getting last term (about half).

NZ First are still polling below the threshold and will be in a battle to stay in Parliament.

Is is fairly normal these days there are a number of borderline governing scenarios with these numbers, with National+ACT and Labour+Greens thereabouts but not certainties.

A lot may depend on whether NZ First make the threshold or not next election. Both other times they have been in a coalition government they have lost support at the next election.

Trends from Opinion polling for the next New Zealand general election (Wikipedia):

That shows the last Reid Research anomaly well.

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern: RR 38.4% (-10.6), CB 38% (-3)
  • Simon Bridges: RR 6.7% (+2.5), CB 9% (+3)
  • Judith Collins: 5.2% (-1.9), CB 5%
  • Winston Peters: CB 4%

Ardern a bit down, Bridges a bit up but still a big difference.

Newshub also did a poll on performance:

  • Ardern: performing well 62.4%, performing poorly 23.1%
  • Bridges: performing well 23.9%, performing poorly 52.7%

UPDATE: 1 News/Colmar Brunton have also started asking a similar question:

  •  Ardern handling her job as Prime Minister:  +33
    approve 62%
    disapprove 29%
    don’t know or refused 8%
  • Bridges’ handling his job as National Party leader: -22
    approve 29%
    disapprove 51%
    don’t know or refused 20%

Ardern performance is well above her party support, while Bridges is well below National support (about half).

  • Newshub-Reid Research Poll was conducted between 2-9 October 2019.
    1000 people were surveyed, 700 by telephone and 300 by internet panel
  • 1 News-Colmar Brunton poll conducted between 5-9 October
    1008 eligible voters were polled by landline (502) and mobile phone (506)

So both now rely on some polling by something other than landline, Reid Research 30% by internet panel and Colmar Brunton 50% by mobile phone.

1 News link here.

Newshub/Reid Search links here and here.

The Newshun headline says “Jacinda Ardern, Labour take massive tumble in new Newshub-Reid Research poll” but a more accurate description would have been “Newshub poll looks more likely following last rogue poll”. It wasn’t a massive tumble for Ardern, more like a large correction by Reid Research.

1 News/Colmar Brunton poll – June 2019

Party support:

  • Labour 42% (down 6)
  • National 44% (up 4)
  • Greens 6% (no change)
  • NZ First 5% (Up 1)
  • ACT 1% (no change)
  • New Conservatives 1%
  • The Opportunities Party 1%

Refuse to answer 4%, undecided 10%. Fieldwork conducted 4-8 June 2019

This is a very different result to the Newshub/Reid Research poll – June 2019.

The Reid Research poll was conducted between May 29 and June 7.

The budget was released on May 29.

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 45% (down 6)
  • Judith Collins 6% (up 1)
  • Simon Bridges 5% (no change)
  • Winston Peters 5% (no change)

This is sort of interesting but doesn’t mean a great deal. National back up a bit, Labour have eased off an unusual high at a favourable time for them and Ardern.

 

Majority support stronger firearms laws – poll

A 1 News/Colmar Brunton poll has only 14% of people opposing the new firearms laws.

1 News  New poll: 61% of New Zealanders back gun ban in wake of Christchurch atrocity

The majority of New Zealand voters believe the Government’s swift move to enact new gun laws has been “about right” in the wake of the Christchurch terrorist attacks.

In the latest 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll, eligible New Zealand voters were asked what they thought of the Government’s moves.

  • 61%  thought the changes were about right
  • 19% thought it did not go far enough
  • 14% thought it went too far
  • 5% didn’t know
  • 2% refused to answer.

So 80% thought the changes were ‘about right’ or didn’t go far enough.

The Government has indicated this was the ‘first tranche’ of changes and intend to do more, but will wisely take more to look into what else should be done.

Between April 6 and 10, 1009 eligible voters were polled via landline and mobile phone. The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95 per cent confidence level.

1 News Colmar poll – February 2019

A similar result in this 1 news/Colmar Brunton poll to the recent Newshub/Reid Research poll, which suggests a shift in support to Labour and away from National. It isn’t major yet, but it’s going to keep the leadership change talk.

  • Labour 45% (up from 43)
  • National 42% (down from 46)
  • Greens 6% (up from 5)
  • NZ First 3% (down from 4)
  • ACT 1% (no change)
  • Maori Party 1% (no change)
  • TOP 1%

Refuse to answer 6% (up from 3) undecided 10%. Fieldwork conducted 9-13 February.

Greens are sort of safe so with Labour look good for now.

NZ First is still struggling to survive.

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 44% (up from 39)
  • Simon Bridges 6% (down from 7)
  • Judith Collins 6% (no change)
  • Winston Peters 3%  (down from 4)

No a significant move for Bridges, but not a good place to be.

Political polls for 2018

Political polls for the year haven’t shown any drastic changes, with Labour and National swapping the lead a few times after Labour had risen to be competitive late last year after the election.

I presume there will be no more political polls for 2018. Colmar Brunton (for 1 News) are the only ones left doing polls, and they have just published what will be their last one for the year.

Reid Research (Newshub) did just two polls this year, in January and May. Roy Morgan have up given doing New Zealand polls. Their last poll was in November 2017.

Labour looked dire mid 2017 but Jacinda Ardern’s leadership turned things around for them enough for them to  be able to form a government, thanks to NZ First.

NZ First have remained in the MMP danger zone, peaking on the 5% threshold but dropping as low as 2.4% (in May).

After polling mostly in the 10-15% range in the first half of last year Greens dropped drastically after the Turei fallout, and through this year holding their support just over the threshold in the 5-7% range. So their support has halved from the support they got for most of last term.

It seems normal for coalition support parties to struggle to maintain support.

After the latest poll Ardern was criticised for claiming that Labour “finishing the year stronger than we started it”, but she is correct, sort of, by a small margin and she is comparing two different polling companies.

Reid Research did an unusually early poll in the political holiday period 18-28 January, and had Labour on 42.3%. In May they had Labour on 42.6%.

Colmar Brunton’s last poll (24-28 November) had Labour on 43% (rounded so could have been as low as 42.51% or as high as 43.49%). However Colmar’s first poll of the year (10-14 February) had Labour at 48% so Labour have dropped back from that Colmar high.

Ardern also said “polls do move around a bit these are all still within the margin of error” –

We can only see trends from Colmar – here are Labour’s results for the year.

  • 10-14 February 48%
  • 7-11 April 43%
  • 19-23 May 43%
  • 28 Jul – 1 Aug  42%
  • 15-19 October 45%
  • 24-28 November 43%

The 48% for Labour looks to be a polling outlier – it could have been accurate at the time, but Labour settled in and remained in the low forties for the rest of the year. While they will be disappointed to be trailing National this is a fairly solid result for them, considering their pre-Ardern polling had them dropping in the twenties. Colmar had them trending down to 24% in July 2017.

National’s results from Colmar this year:

  • 10-14 February 43%
  • 7-11 April 44%
  • 19-23 May 45%
  • 28 Jul – 1 Aug  45%
  • 15-19 October 43%
  • 24-28 November 46%

They were behind Labour in February and in October (affected by the Jami-Lee Ross mess) but this is remarkably consistent for a party in Opposition, and with new leader Simon Bridges (since 27 February) who is struggling to make a mark.

Looking at the Labour and National polling for the year there is little in it, and little significant change in most polls.

Media have tried to make big stories out of their polls, but the reality is quite mundane.

I think we have a real problem with how polls are reported. Obviously media try to get bang for their bucks – polling can be expensive – but they usually make mountains out of mole polls, often blatantly misrepresenting what individual polls mean.

Media try to make each of their polls look like some sort of mini election, which is nonsense. They can only be approximate indicators of support, and the year after an election most of the people care little about politics most of the time.

If media were doing proper journalism they would report on the political polling without sensation and misrepresentation. And mostly that would be (and should be) quite boring.

How should the media get value for the money spent on polls? Perhaps they should also poll on things of real public interest at the same time, and make their big stories about that.

1 News blew that opportunity in the last poll. They did ask a one-off question – Should Simon Bridges boot Jami-Lee Ross from Parliament using waka jumping law?

The results of that mean nothing (and were inconclusive, with 31% saying they didn’t know). Most people have moved on from one MP self-destructing – actually most people probably took little notice when the media were going hard out with headlines.

1 News would probably like to encourage National to chuck Ross out of the waka (that would be out of parliament, they have already chucked him out of the party) because that could be headlined as a sensational political somersault or something.

Rather than aiming for short term headlines 1 News could do a really public service (they are a public media company after all) doing a series of meaningful polls on issues that really matter to people, but it would take months if not years to get a return on their investment. They seem too obsessed with short term ratings and clicks.

So I expect more of the same form polling next year, another non-election year. It’s a shame we are so poorly served by media who do polling, but I don’t see that changing.

Something worse has become prevalent – online polls run by media. They are cheap, and nasty, very unreliable so they are of no useful purpose.

1 News Colmar poll – November 2018

National have bounced back in the latest Colmar Brunton poll, seemingly having survived the Jami-Lee Ross saga.

  • National 46% (up from 43)
  • Labour 43% (down from 45)
  • Greens 5% (down from 7)
  • NZ First 4% (down from 5)
  • ACT 1% (up from 0)
  • Maori Party 1% (no change)

Refuse to answer 3%, undecided 10%. Fieldwork conducted 24-28 November

So it seems to be settling into a two horse race, with Greens and NZ First in the threshold danger zone.

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 39% (down from 42)
  • Simon Bridges 7% (no change)
  • Judith Collins 6% (up from 5)
  • Winston Peters 4%  (no change)

That will get some dumping on bridges and talking up Colins, but with National on 46% it’s unlikely there will be a change of leader in the near future.

I wonder what Simon Lusk thinks of these results. Just last Wednesday he was trying to push a mid-thirties poll result for National – with no evidence provided of course.