2017 election quiz

The ‘I Side With’ political quiz tailored for New Zealand: 2017 election quiz

My results:

ISideWith

This is based on policies only, and doesn’t take into account the perceived competence of MPs and candidates, competence of the party, size of the party, their record, and more.

I wouldn’t be disappointed if National got back in to government, so long as they were moderated by other parties – I’d be happy for most other parties to fill this role except NZ First. But if NZ First were relatively small (<10%) it wouldn’t be a big deal.

I wouldn’t be disappointed if Labour led the next government in some coalition arrangements, dependant on which parties were in coalition with them and what the relative balance of power was.

I’d be happy with The Opportunities Party holding the balance of power (but with changes over the last week think it’s unlikely they will get close to the 5% threshold.

I would be interested in a a National+Labour or a National+Green coalition but think they would be unlikely due to the attitude of the parties.

The link again: 2017 election quiz

UPDATE: I’ve been thinking about this and realise how I think it is particularly flawed. It measures things across a wide range of policies, but I think that many voting decisions made, or at least my voting decisions, are based mostly on a few key policies, most of which are mostly already in place, like tax and benefits and the balance of spending.

No matter what a party’s policies are how they will deal with what is already in place and how much the will change things is more important than a wide range of general policies.

Newshub poll – NAT 45.2%, LAB 24.1%

The latest (July 2017) Newshub/Reid Research poll has National into tricky territory, needing more than their current partners to get back in.

But most of the talk is about Labour diving, with three recent polls having them at 24.1% (Reid Research), 24% (Colmar Brunton) and 23% (UMR internal poll).

  • National 45.2% (down from 47.4)
  • Labour 24.1% (down from 26.6)
  • Greens 13.0% (up from 12.5)
  • NZ First 13.0% (up from 9.4)
  • The Opportunities Party 2.0% (up from 0.8)
  • Maori Party 1.2% (up from 0.7)
  • ACT Party 0.5% (down from 0.9)
  • United Future 0.2% (down from 0.3)

There is no escaping a dire situation for Labour and for Andrew Little.

A different balance between Greens and NZ First to the Colmar Brunton poll, with them level pegging here.

TOP will be happy to be on the rise but still a long way off the 5% threshold.

The Maori Party are in the vicinity of what they need to keep two seats.

ACT are failing to make an impact.

ReidResearch2012-2017

Preferred Prime Minister:

The Newshub-Reid Research poll was conducted July 20-28. 1000 people were surveyed, 750 by telephone and 250 by internet panel. It has a margin of error of 3.1 percent.

National party list 2017

The National Party has just released it’s party list for the 2017 election.

National’s 2017 Party List is a strong mix of experienced talent and fresh faces, Party President Peter Goodfellow says.

“National is incredibly lucky to have so many capable people we can draw on, from our Leader and Prime Minister Bill English right through to our newest candidates.

“Putting together a list is never easy, but this strikes the right balance between recognising experience, diversity, and pursuing ongoing renewal.”

The current Cabinet and Speaker David Carter make up spots one through 21, with existing MPs and new candidates following that. If National matched its result from 2014, 13 new MPs would enter Parliament alongside 47 returning MPs.

“Rejuvenation is important for any political party, and National is going into this election with some fantastic new candidates. We are also farewelling some very dedicated MPs who have served their constituents, our party and the country with distinction,” Mr Goodfellow says.

“This is National’s most diverse list ever. We’re incredibly proud to represent New Zealanders from all walks of life, with a range of ethnicities and backgrounds. We’ve got businesspeople, teachers, farmers, community advocates, scientists, and a pilot – just to name a few.

“National is working hard to build a strong economy so we can afford to invest in the things that matter to New Zealanders, like training more teachers, investing in health services, building more schools and roads, and boosting family incomes.

“Every MMP election is very close. All of our candidates will be campaigning hard to ensure National gets a strong Party Vote result so we can keep delivering for New Zealanders.

“The only way to secure another strong, National-led Government and avoid a chaotic Labour/Greens/New Zealand First coalition is by Party Voting National, and that’s what all of our candidates and volunteers will be focused on over the next eight weeks.”

National’s 2017 List

1 Bill English List
2 Paula Bennett Upper Harbour
3 David Carter List
4 Steven Joyce List
5 Gerry Brownlee Ilam
6 Simon Bridges Tauranga
7 Amy Adams Selwyn
8 Jonathan Coleman Northcote
9 Chris Finlayson Rongotai
10 Michael Woodhouse Dunedin North
11 Anne Tolley East Coast
12 Nathan Guy Otaki
13 Nikki Kaye Auckland Central
14 Todd McClay Rotorua
15 Nick Smith Nelson
16 Judith Collins Papakura
17 Maggie Barry North Shore
18 Paul Goldsmith Epsom
19 Louise Upston Taupo
20 Alfred Ngaro Te Atatu
21 Mark Mitchell Rodney
22 Nicky Wagner Christchurch Central
23 Jacqui Dean Waitaki
24 David Bennett Hamilton East
25 Tim Macindoe Hamilton West
26 Scott Simpson Coromandel
27 Jami-Lee Ross Botany
28 Barbara Kuriger Taranaki-King Country
29 Matt Doocey Waimakariri
30 Brett Hudson Ohariu
31 Melissa Lee Mt Albert
32 Kanwaljit Singh Bakshi Manukau East
33 Jian Yang List
34 Parmjeet Parmar Mt Roskill
35 Jonathan Young New Plymouth
36 Joanne Hayes Christchurch East
37 Ian McKelvie Rangitikei
38 Simon O’Connor Tamaki
39 Andrew Bayly Hunua
40 Chris Bishop Hutt South
41 Sarah Dowie Invercargill
42 Nuk Korako Port Hills
43 Todd Muller Bay of Plenty
44 Maureen Pugh West Coast Tasman
45 Shane Reti Whangarei
46 Alastair Scott Wairarapa
47 Stuart Smith Kaikoura
48 Nicola Willis Wellington Central
49 Agnes Loheni Mangere
50 Paulo Garcia New Lynn
51 Matt King Northland
52 David Hiatt Wigram
53 Matthew Gregory Dunedin South
54 Adrienne Pierce Palmerston North
55 David Elliott Napier
56 Katrina Bungard Manurewa
57 Bala Beeram Kelston
58 Carolyn O’Fallon Rimutaka
59 Euon Murrell Mana
60 Simeon Brown Pakuranga
61 Andrew Falloon Rangitata
62 Harete Hipango Whanganui
63 Denise Lee Maungakiekie
64 Chris Penk Helensville
65 Erica Stanford East Coast Bays
66 Tim Van de Molen Waikato
67 Lawrence Yule Tukituki
68 TO BE CONFIRMED Clutha-Southland
69 Sarah Jo Barley List
70 Lisa Whyte List
71 Linda Cooper List
72 Dan Bidois List
73 Rahul Sirigiri List
74 Hadleigh Reid List
75 Graham Collins List

Labour’s fiscal plan ‘to build a fairer New Zealand’

Labour released their fiscal plan today:


Labour’s fiscal plan to build a fairer New Zealand

Labour will re-build our housing, health and education while responsibly managing New Zealand’s finances, says Leader of the Opposition Andrew Little.

“Under Labour’s Fiscal Plan we will deliver big investments in the services we all need and care about, invest in our long term future and meet the expectation from New Zealanders that we will do so in a prudent and effective way.

“This will be achieved because we have different priorities than National. We are committed to rejecting National’s election year tax cuts that will hand $400 million to the top 10 per cent of income earners.

“Labour’s Fiscal Plan prioritises new investment in housing, health, education, and infrastructure. Our plan will boost the incomes for low and middle income families, create opportunities for our young people, and improve the lives of all.

“Labour will invest $8 billion more in health, $4 billion more in education and $5 billion more for Kiwi families through Working for Families, Best Start and the Winter Energy Payment than the Budget 2017 projections for the forecast period.

“Importantly, Labour will restore contributions to the New Zealand Superannuation Fund to help keep the age of Super at 65. Under Labour’s plan, we’ll double the existing size of the current fund to around $63 billion by 2022.

“This is a credible plan which has been vetted by economists BERL.

“We can continue to run surpluses and pay down debt because, unlike National, we do not believe a tax cut can be justified at this time.

“It is simply not credible for the Government to say that a thousand dollar tax cut for Bill English and me should be a priority over ensuring New Zealanders have homes to live in, modern schools, and world-class healthcare when they need it.

“There is a clear choice for voters this election: National’s tax cut trickle-down economics or Labour’s plan that will provide much more for the services Kiwis need and want prioritised.

“Labour’s targeted Families Package delivers a bigger boost to 70 per cent of families with kids, while costing $2 billion less over four years than National’s tax cuts, so we can also invest in the priorities Kiwis care about.

“Labour’s Fiscal Plan meets all of our Budget Responsibility Rules: it projects continued surpluses, debt down to 20 per cent of GDP within five years of taking office, resumed contributions to the New Zealand Superannuation Fund, stable spending as a share of the economy, and a fairer tax system including a crackdown on multinational tax avoidance.

“By making these choices, we will ensure New Zealand is a better and fairer place for all our people, while balancing the books. This is the positive plan and fresh approach that only a Labour-led Government will deliver,” says Andrew Little.

Major first term outputs and goals

LabourFiscal1

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http://img.scoop.co.nz/media/pdfs/1707/labours_fiscal_plan.pdf

 

 

National 43% in latest RM poll

National are back down to 43% in the latest Roy Morgan poll, similar to the 42% in the UMR poll covering a similar period – see Part of a UMR poll. However NZ First are on 8%, in contrast to their 14% in the UMR poll.

This poll was taken after all the Todd Barclay publicity (which continues), after the Labour intern issue broke but as it emerged (so it won’t have fully impacted), and before this week’s flare up between Greens and NZ First.

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” 

  • National 43% (Jan  46, Feb 48, Mar 43.5, Apr 43, May 43, Jun 46.5)
  • Labour 30.5% (Jan 27, Feb 26, Mar 29.5, Apr 29.5, May 28.5, Jun 25.5)
  • Greens 13.5% (Jan 12.5, Feb 13, Mar 14.5, Apr 13, May 14, Jun 14)
  • NZ First 8% (Jan 9, Feb 8, Mar 7.5, Apr 10.5, May 10, Jun 9)
  • Maori Party 1.5% (Jan 2, Feb 2, Mar 2, Apr 1, May 1.5, Jun 1.5)
  • ACT Party 1% (Jan 0.5, Feb 1, Mar 0.5, Apr 1.5, May 1, Jun 1)
  • United Future 0% (no change)
  • Conservatives 0% (no change)
  • Mana Party 0% (down from 0.5)
  • Internet Party 0% (no change)
  • Other 2.5% (Jan 2, Feb 2, Mar 1, Apr 1, May 1.5, Jun 2)

Of all electors surveyed 8.5% (up 2%) didn’t name a party.

This was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone – with a NZ wide cross-section of 868 electors during June 26 – July 9, 2017.

This leaves National and current support parties well short of a majority, on about the same level of support as Labour + Greens.

NZ First are in a position of choice, but Greens and NZ First showed their incompatibility this week.

RoyMorgan2017-July

Polling was done between June 26 and July 9.

 

 

The actual Colmar Brunton poll results

One News has developed a habit of publishing partial rounded poll results, and then a few days later Colmar Brunton posts the actual details online, which are much more useful.

One News Colmar Brunton poll 1-5 July 2017 – ‘which party would you vote for?’

ColmarBruntonParty2017July

Trends for the party vote:

ColmarBruntonPartyChart2017July

And ‘preferred Prime Minister’:

ColmarBruntonPM2017July

That poll was taken well before the Green-NZ First flare up that started on Sunday continued into today.

 

 

 

Lions series result could have been much worse

Major sports results can swing on small things, like single refereeing decisions. That was the case in the 3rd and deciding All Blacks-Lions test.

There has been a lot of talk about the referee changing a penalty to a scrum in the last minutes, something he shouldn’t have done, perhaps denying the All Blacks a win (if the penalty shot had been successful).

The referee also denied a possible try by not allowing advantage to be played.

The All Blacks were within a whisker of a win, but a different decision could have easily swung the game and the series against them

The Telegraph: Ref Romain Poite could’ve avoided controversy by awarding Lions a penalty for Kieran Read’s challenge

To my mind there were three elements to the decision. The first was whether Kieran Read’s challenge in the air on Liam Williams was legal, and if a penalty should have been awarded to the Lions.

On the first question I disagree with the outcome that Romain and George reached in deciding that Read’s challenge was legal. I would argue that Williams had already taken the space in the air and that Read could not win possession from where he was, even with an outstretched arm.

That is a decision that could have been legitimately changed by video review. Read was lucky to get away with his challenge.

If the penalty had been reversed the Lions would have then kicked for touch and the line out with their throw in would likely have been in kicking range if the All Blacks had then given away a penalty.

We can lament a controversial decision denying the All Blacks a win, but it also saved them a much greater risk of a game and series loss.

Perhaps we should be thankful for the draw. It’s how things ended up anyway, and is now written into history.

 

ACT Party list 2017

letedACT announced their party list. It is relatively young and the top 10 is 50/50 gender-wise.

Only 3 of the top 10 were on ACT’s list in 2014. Seymour was electorate only and didn’t stand on the list.

The 2017 list:

1 – DAVID SEYMOUR – Epsom (electorate only, not on list in 2014)
David Seymour, Leader of ACT and Member of Parliament for Epsom, is the only millennial party leader in Parliament. Since 2014, Seymour has served as Parliamentary Under Secretary for the Ministry of Education in the National-led Government. His End of Life Choice Bill was drawn for debate this past June.

2 – BETH HOULBROOKE – Rodney (2 in 2014)
Beth, ACT’s candidate for Rodney, is currently elected as Chair of the Rodney Local Board (Auckland Council). She has twice been elected into local government in 2013 and 2016. Beth has stood for ACT in two previous elections as well as serving on the Board for ACT New Zealand for the past four years and member since the Party’s conception.

3 – BROOKE VAN VELDEN – Auckland Central
Brooke Van Velden, ACT’s candidate for Auckland Central, is a public relations and corporate affairs consultant with Exceltium, an Auckland based PR firm. She holds a joint Bachelor of Arts and Bachelor of Commerce degrees, majoring in economics, international trade, politics, and international relations from the University of Auckland. Brooke is an avid singer and currently resides in the city.

4 – BHUPINDER SINGH – Manakau East
Bhupinder Singh, ACT’s candidate for Manakau East, played professional cricket for the Auckland Aces from 2008-2013 and represented New Zealand A on their 2010 tour in Zimbabwe.  He is currently head coach of the Papatoetoe Cricket Club. Bhupinder is also an executive at Ray White Real Estate.

5 – STEPHEN BERRY – East Coast Bays (6 in 201)
Stephen Berry, ACT’s East Coast Bays candidate, has worked in the retail industry for 20 years and is currently employed in senior management for Countdown Supermarkets. Stephen has previously ran as an ACT candidate in 2014 and as the Affordable Auckland candidate in the 2013 Mayoral race, finishing in third place. Stephen lives with his partner of nine years, John in Forest Hill.

6 – STUART PEDERSON – Tauranga
Stuart Pedersen, ACT’s candidate for Tauranga, is a private investor with a background in economics and investment field. He is passionate about sailing and is an active volunteer with the Bay of Plenty Sailing Academy Trust. Stuart and his wife, Pamela, currently reside in Mt Maunganui.

7 – ANNEKA CARLSON – New Plymouth
Anneka Carlson, ACT’s candidate for New Plymouth, a small health and fitness business owner and is currently studying for her business law degree. She also holds a diploma from AUT in health and fitness. Previously, Anneka spent two years as a Police Officer in west Auckland. Anneka is a passionate advocate for animal welfare, serving on the board of the North Taranaki SPCA.  Along with the Cancer Society, Anneka runs a support group for men suffering with cancer.

8 – SHAN NG – Mana
Shan Ng, ACT’s candidate for Mana, is a commercial lawyer with a background in the ICT and telecommunication procurement and commercial sector. She holds a law degree from Cardiff University and has been admitted to the bar as barrister and solicitor in three jurisdictions, Malaysia, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom. Shan is fluent in four languages, including Cantonese, Malay, and Mandarin.

9 – SAM PURCHAS – Dunedin North
Sam Purchas, ACT’s candidate for Dunedin North, is a student at Otago University, studying a double major in microbiology and chemistry. Sam is the President of ACT on Campus and is heavily involved in the performing arts.

10 – TONI SEVERIN – Christchurch East (11 in 2014)
Toni Severin, ACT’s candidate for Christchurch East, is a small business owner. She previously spent fourteen years working for the Canterbury Health Laboratories and holds a QTA in Immunology. Toni previously ran as an ACT candidate in 2008, 2011, and 2014 in Christchurch and currently serves on the Board of ACT New Zealand.

11 Grae O’Sullivan Rimutaka
12 Richard Evans Kaikoura
13 James McDowall Hamilton East
14 Richard Wells New Lynn
15 Michael Warren Wellington Central
16 Andi Moore Ohariu
17 Andy Parkins Hutt South
18 Colin Anderson Whanganui
19 Bruce Carley Bay of Plenty
20 Tom Corbett Rangitata
21 Brian Davidson Selwyn
22 Alan Davidson List only
23 Dan Doughty Dunedin South
24 Alex Evans Helensville
25 Paul Gilbert Ilam
26 Roger Greenslade Wairarapa
27 Deleted as requested
28 Stuart Hawkins Waimakariri
29 Bruce Haycock Northcote
30 Paul Hufflett Nelson
31 Nick Kearney North Shore
32 Tim Kronfeld Upper Harbour
33 Michael Milne Tamaki
34 Joe Misselbrook List only
35 Craig Nelson Northland
36 Joshua Perry List only
37 Vineet Shiriwastow Coromandel
38 Satnam (Sam) Singh Manurewa
39 Anthony Smith Hunua
40 Chris Sole Rongotai
41 Neil Wilson Rangitikei

The ACT Board has ranked candidates 1-19, the remainder are listed alphabetically.

http://act.org.nz/act-unveils-party-list/

UPDATE: the ACT website page linked to now only has their top 10. One person has requested they be removed from the list.

Read sums up the 3rd test

All Black captain Kieran Read sums up the third test against the British and Irish Lions:

Referee Roman Poite had originally ruled that it was offside, but after consultation with the television match official downgraded his decision to an accidental offside.

“In my view it is a penalty and I think he ruled it correctly from the start,” Read told Sky Sports.

“I guess when you bring in replays, and everything, you will get different decisions.

It looked to me like the correct decision initially, and changing that decision will be much debated.

“That was not why we didn’t win the game, it was an accumulation of everything throughout the game.

“It was just one of those that goes against you and you have to deal with it.”

The penalty reversal was at a crucial time but it wasn’t a given that the penalty would have been successfully kicked (my first reaction to the penalty being warded was dread that it could be missed), and it was far from the only reason why the All Blacks didn’t win. They made mistakes right through the game that put them in a position where a single decision mattered.

Asked how he was feeling after the game, Read said: “Pretty hollow to be honest.

“You walk away with a draw, it doesn’t really mean much.

It felt a bit hollow for me as a spectator too. But relief it wasn’t a loss.

“I’ll look back on this in the future with a bit more pride, look back on the series as pretty well fought-out.

“Two teams couldn’t be split so that’s the way it goes.”

Meanwhile, Read, who was making his 100th appearance for the All Blacks, believes his side were just not accurate enough with their execution.

“There was a lot of endeavour and hard work from the boys, perhaps we were just trying too hard,” he added.

“We wanted to put in a great performance and it just didn’t click for us.

“Really proud of the lads, we stuck at it. It is hard to know what you’re feeling right now.”

The All Blacks weren’t accurate enough, partly due to pressure from the Lions, partly probably due to pressure of the game situation, and partly just poor execution.

But it was still a top game between two top sides, especially the first half.

The second half was dragged down by too many stoppages but it was still closely fought and tense.

The best team didn’t win – there wasn’t one. In the second and third tests little separated them, and regardless of discussion afterwards it will go down as a drawn game and a drawn series.

That result and the series generally will be good for the future of the Lions.

And it won’t do the All Blacks any harm. They win a lot but can be beaten and don’t always win big games.

 

Lions v All Blacks – 3rd test

LionsAllBlacks

Tonight’s 3rd test between the British and Irish Lions and the All Blacks is one of the biggest and most anticipated games of rugby for a long time outside the Rugby World Cup.

There’s something special about a closely contested series. It is 1-1 after two tests, so everything is riding on this game.

The winner is already rugby, and no matter who wins the game will have benefited a lot from this series.?

Who’s going to win? I have no idea, both teams start the game on 0-0, and it could easily go either way.

There could end up being one dominant team, or it could be close all the way and come down to one piece of brilliance or one bad mistake.

It’s great to have a game to watch that is so full of interest and uncertainty.

Of course I want the All Blacks to win, but if they turn out to be no good enough then so be it.—

The Lions have won the toss and will kick off at Eden Park.

Half time 12-6 to the All Blacks.

The Lions have played well at times but the ABs had the better of the first half that’s been full of action. Two very good tries, but a few missed chances as well through handling mistakes.

The Lions need to come out in the second half with new energy and lift themselves or they may struggle as fatigue sets in. They don’t look as committed as they were last week.

Still anyone’s game, but advantage at this stage to the All Blacks, both on the scoreboard and on dominance.

An odd second half, very stop start, mistakes from both sides.

Final score 15-15, a drawn series.

The All Blacks seemed to see it as a failure, the Lions saw it as a success.

One very contentious decision where it seems that a penalty (kickable) to the All Blacks was changed to a scrum after referring to the video ref – I didn’t think the video ref could be used for general play decisions like that, it still looked like a deliberate play so offside, but the ref ruled and the All Blacks didn’t finish off so the result stands.