2018 citizenship numbers

The top ten nationalities who got New Zealand citizenship last year:

  • United Kingdom including England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland – 5471
  • India – 4845
  • Samoa including Western Samoa – 3185
  • Philippines – 3079
  • South Africa  – 2691
  • Fiji – 2542
  • China including Hong Kong, Tibet, Inner Mongolia, Macau and Macao – 1175
  • Tonga – 848
  • Australia – 767
  • United States – 756

Totals:

  • 2017 – 36,450
  • 2018 – 35,737

A small drop.

From ODT who also show for  Dunedin a slight Drop in citizenship numbers but still well up on previous years:

Nationalities becoming citizens in Dunedin in 2018:

  • United Kingdom – 145
  • India – 52
  • Philippines – 43
  • South Africa – 42
  • United States – 28
  • China – 23
  • Australia – 23
  • Sri Lanka – 17
  • Thailand – 15
  • Tonga – 12
  • Other – 153

While featuring in the top ten for New Zealand, Samoans and Fijians are presumably in Other.

New Zealand is the fifth most ethnically diverse country in the OECD, with 25% of the population being born overseas. And the above spread of ethnicities indicate to an extent the spread of ethnicities.

 

Water pollution a major public concern – Fish & Game poll

According to a poll done for NZ Fish & Game by Colmar Brunton, water quality is a major concern.

Fish & Game:  Water pollution is now New Zealanders’ Number One Concern

The findings are revealed in a nation-wide Colmar Brunton poll conducted for Fish & Game New Zealand in December.

People were asked how concerned they were about a range of issues, including the cost of living, health system, child poverty and water pollution.

I don’t think the poll proves water pollution is the ‘number one concern’. The poll just asked about seven issues and didn’t leave it open for people to nominate issues of concern.

Question: To what extent are you concerned , or not concerned, about the following issues in New Zealand:

The poll was conducted for Fish & Game New Zealand by Colmar Brunton from 5-12 December 2018.  A thousand New Zealanders were surveyed and the results are nationally representative for age, gender and region.  It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percent.

Water pollution rates as a major concern (of the issues offered), but is within the margin of error of the cost of living and the health system.

And as presented in the poll options it is more specific than all the other issues.

If asked what concerns you most between equal and access to life saving medical care, or for decent housing or fo\r low mortgage rates compared to cleaner lakes and rivers the results could have been different.

Interesting to see housing rated the bottom of these concerns.

Fish & Game New Zealand chief executive Martin Taylor…

…says the survey’s findings show the depth of feeling New Zealanders have about their rivers, lakes and streams.

“Kiwis are extremely worried that they are losing their ability to swim, fish and gather food from their rivers, lakes and streams”.

“People see those activities as their birth right but over the last 20 years, that right is being lost because the level of pollution in waterways has increased as farming intensifies.

Taylor says big agriculture and local government should take note of the fact that the issue is now Kiwi’s top concern.

“While many farmers do understand the need for action and are making the necessary changes to how they use their land, there are still significant numbers who are refusing to follow their example,” he says.

“These laggards are letting down the responsible farmers, undermining farming’s reputation and exhausting the public’s patience.

“They have to be made to change.  This means regional and district councils have to toughen the rules, enforce them and stop making excuses for the environmentally destructive and irresponsible farmers in their areas,” Mr Taylor says.

“More Kiwis than ever are now worried about their rivers and lakes.

“This opinion poll result shows they are fed up and want action on this issue.”

The poll doesn’t actually show that.

Fis & Game will be pleased that the poll they commissioned gave them a result that suited their own purposes, but presenting a poll alongside their own agenda, with misleading claims, is not a great way to do things.

I think that maintaining and improving fresh water quality is important, but so are many other problems.

2018 was second equal hottest year on record, ‘alarming trend’ – NIWA

NIWA (National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research) say that 2018 was the second warmest year on record, and four of the past six years were in the top five warmest.

RNZ:  2018 climate continues ‘alarming trend’ – NIWA

Temperatures in 2018 continued to hit record highs, with scientists calling the year a continuation of an “alarming trend”.

January was a record high, but for the year it wasn’t a record.

The year as a whole was the second-equal warmest on record, along with 1998.

The average temperature was 13.41C, not quite reaching the high set in 2016 with an average of 13.45C.

NIWA principal scientist Chris Brandolino said four of the past six years were now in the top five of warmest ever recorded, which was extremely concerning.

“[The year of] 2016 was the warmest, 2017 was the 5th warmest. This year equal-second warmest and I think 2015 was the third warmest,” Mr Brandolino said.

“So four out of the past six years we’ve finished top five and unfortunately part of a long-term and alarming trend.”

Mr Brandolino said there were 49 locations which reached record or near record temperatures around the country.

Mr Brandolino said the warm weather was due to three main components – sea surface temperatures, air flow from tropic and sub-tropic areas and an increase in greenhouse gasses.

“The increases in greenhouses that we continue to see is warming in the background,” he said.

“In other words, we are seeing a long-term tailwind of temperatures. Our changing climate is acting as a long-term tailwind for high temperatures.”

@NIWAWeather:

January 2018 was New Zealand’s warmest month on record, recording a remarkable 3.1˚C above average.

The rest of 2018:

  •   6 months saw above average temps.
  •   6 months saw near average temps.
  •   0 months saw below average temps.

♨️ 49 locations observed record or near-record high mean temperatures.

❄️ 0 locations observed record or near-record low mean temperatures.

For minimum temperatures, 2018 was the warmest on record at +0.94˚C above average in New Zealand. Research has shown that historical warming rates have been larger for overnight minimum temperatures compared with daytime maximum temperatures.

This is a bit misleading stating ‘warmest year on record’:

Thiessen: The 10 worst things Trump did in 2018

Following Marc Thiessen’s Trump successes in 2018 he has also done The 10 worst things Trump did in 2018.

… he also did a lot of bad things that ranged from cringeworthy to catastrophic. Here are the 10 worst:

10. His comment about “sh–hole” countries blew up negotiations for a deal that would have given Trump his border wall.
…his abhorrent comment undermined Democrats who were serious about cutting a deal and gave those who were not a pretext to walk away.

9. His offensive tweets continued to undermine his presidency.
Calling former White House aide Omarosa Manigault Newman “a dog” and Stormy Daniels “Horseface” — among countless offensive tweets — is not just unpresidential, it drives away potential supporters who like his policies but then are reminded how much they don’t like Trump.

8. His misuse of power turned critics into martyrs.

7. He drove away suburban voters and caused the GOP to lose control of the House.
That’s because the president has sought to energize his base in ways that drive those voters away.

6. His graceless handling of Sen. John McCain’s funeral was a new low.

5. His handling of Jamal Khashoggi’s murder harmed America’s moral standing.

4. His news conference with Vladimir Putin in Helsinki was an embarrassment.

3. His policy to separate migrant children from their families at the southern border was an avoidable tragedy.

2. His planned withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan is a gift to the Taliban and al-Qaeda.
The news came just as U.S. officials were holding talks with the Taliban whose No. 1 demand is . . . the withdrawal of U.S. forces. Hardly the “art of the deal.”

1. His pullout of all U.S. troops in Syria will take America’s boot off of the terrorists’ necks.
Trump’s claim that “we have defeated ISIS in Syria” is as bad as Obama’s dismissing them as the “J.V.” squad.

 

 

 

2018 may be warmest year on record for New Zealand

NIWA are set to release an analysis of last year’s weather records next week, but Jim Salinger has jumped the gun on them, unofficially stating the 2018 was the warmest year on record for New Zealand.

NZ Herald:  2018 NZ’s hottest year on record – climate scientist

Niwa isn’t due to release its official summary for the year until early next week, but Professor Jim Salinger has already picked it the warmest on records stretching back to 1867.

His calculations put 2018’s mean annual land surface temperatures at 13.5C – or 0.85C above the 1981-2010 average.

His figure also surpassed the scorching years of 1998 and 2016, which were 0.80C and 0.84C above normal respectively.

Niwa meteorologist Chris Brandolino said people would have to wait until next week to see the climate agency’s final numbers – but added Niwa’s preliminary figures showed 2018 tracking extremely close to 2016’s record.

So it looks like being one of the warmest years on record, if not the warmest.

The New Zealand extended temperature record, 1867 - 2018, compared with the 1981 - 2010 normal. Bars represent individual years, the orange line smoothed trends, and dotted red line the overall trend. Source / Professor Jim Salinger

Fluctuations on that temperature record are to be expected, but an apparent surge trend over the last couple of decades could be a concern.

New Zealand is just a small part of the world, but is not the only place to record a warm year – but not the warmest.

Arizona Daily Star:  Tucson’s 2018 weather year end as fourth-hottest on record

Phys Org in November:  2018 temperatures set to be among hottest on record: UN

Global temperatures in 2018 are set to be the fourth highest on record, the UN said Thursday, stressing the urgent need for action to rein in runaway warming of the planet.

In a report released ahead of the COP 24  in Poland, the World Meteorological Organization pointed out that the 20 warmest years on record have been in the past 22 years, and that “2018 is on course to be the 4th  on record.”

“This would mean that the past four years – 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018 – are also the four warmest years in the series,” the UN agency said in its provisional report on the state of the climate this year.

2018, fourth hottest year on record?

The “warming trend is obvious and continuing,” WMO chief Petteri Taalas told reporters in Geneva.

The report shows that the global average temperature for the first 10 months of the year was nearly 1.0-degree Celsius above the pre-industrial era (1850-1900).

So there will be ongoing pressure to try to reduce the human effect of warming, and to mitigate possible issues.

Meanwhile, we have had a couple of weeks of generally very pleasant weather here in Dunedin, with a possible high into the thirties forecast for today. However this is just weather top enjoy (if you like 30+ temperatures, I prefer mid twenties.

More on weather:  A year of wild weather: Cyclones, lightning storms, flooding and cold snaps

So what’s in store for 2019?

This summer might not be a record breaker, as a weak El Nino brings unsettled weather.

We’re unlikely to get weeks on end of hot, dry weather, NIWA principal scientist Chris Brandolino says, but there’ll be periods of settled warm weather between blocks of cooler temperatures.

“This summer, variability is going to be the theme.”

This season the Pacific Ocean is signalling El Nino weather but the atmosphere is not, which makes it a “messy” driving force of the climate, he says, compared to when the two work in tandem.

Temperatures are about or above average and rainfall is forecast to be around normal – other than a bit drier in the Upper North Island and wetter in the West Coast of the South Island.

New Zealand is close to 1C warmer than a century ago. As the atmosphere warms it holds more water vapour, leading to heavier rainfall, Prof Renwick says. Along with rainfall extremes, more moisture in the air can lead to heavier or more unseasonal snowfalls.

But with underlying temperatures getting warmer, heat waves are also more likely.

Heat waves are rare here due to our usual weather variability.

Trump successes in 2018

Marc Thiessen (Washington Post): The 10 best things Trump has done in 2018

10. He has secured the release of 19 people, including 16 Americans, from foreign captivity.

9. He delivered for the “forgotten Americans.” The Trump boom is benefiting those left behind by the Obama economy. Manufacturing jobs grew at the fastest rate in 23 years and the unemployment rate for Americans without a high school diploma reached the lowest point ever recorded.

8. He worked with Democrats and Republicans to pass important legislation. …Trump got a lot done on a bipartisan basis, including criminal justice reform, opioid and sex trafficking legislation, and a new “Right to Try” law giving dying Americans access to experimental medications.

7. He has ushered in a golden age for women in the CIA. Trump not only appointed Gina Haspel as the agency’s first female director but also made Elizabeth Kimber the first women to lead the agency’s clandestine service…

6. His push to expand domestic energy production bore fruit. This year the United States passed both Saudi Arabia and Russia as the world’s top oil producer.

5. In the six months after the Singapore summit with North Korea, he has made no concessions to Pyongyang.

He didn’t seem to make much progress on North Korea either, but at least he and Kim Jong Un have toned down their rhetoric.

4. He struck Syria again and eliminated the last vestiges of the Islamic State’s physical caliphate. For a second time, he enforced Obama’s red line against the use of chemical weapons. The militant group is far from defeated, but Trump is right that we have knocked “the hell out of ISIS.”

‘We’ includes Russia, Turkey and Iran. It’s probably premature to claim to celebrate the elimination of ISIS.

3. He’s continued his tough line with Moscow.

I’m not sure that Putin will be deterred much by a debatable ‘tough line’.

2. He pulled out of Obama’s disastrous Iran deal and reimposed crippling sanctions on Tehran.

I have no idea how crippled Iran is, and what difference sanctions will end up making.

1. He stood by Brett M. Kavanaugh and even in the worst moments never wavered. Trump has confirmed a record 85 judges in his first two years as president.

That’s the best thing trump has done? It will take time tell whether Kavanaugh turns out to be a prudent appointment or not.

There will be discussion on this at Kiwiblog: The 10 best things Trump did 2018

New Zealander of the year – women

NZ Herald has ‘named’ all women as their New Zealander of the year: Our New Zealander of the year is… women

It was the year of #metoo, pay equity, and our Prime Minister becaming a mum. It was the year a female rugby player – at last – gained the sport’s top honour. It was the 125th anniversary of suffrage, a year of celebration. But also a reminder that change does not come without hard work and frustration.

All year, we have watched as New Zealand women have fought for their rights. And fought. And fought.

From campaigning against sexual harassment in the media, to arguing for equal pay through the courts, to addressing our shameful domestic violence record at the United Nations, women stood up and were counted. They raised their voices when others didn’t want to hear. They were empowered in the face of adversity. They persisted despite knowing meaningful change would likely be a long time yet.

That persistence has led us to name women – all women – as our 2018 New Zealanders of the Year.

However, we wanted to acknowledge a year which – though challenging – has been described by many as a beginning.

Governor General Dame Patsy Reddy told us she thought the year was a tipping point, when women decided they’d simply had enough. Jackie Clark, who works with survivors of domestic violence, said it felt like a renaissance of the feminism of the 1970s. The only female chief executive in the NZX50, Chorus head Kate McKenzie, said she thought the year created momentum – and with it an opportunity to keep that momentum going.

New Zealand is still a good place to be a woman, even if all our battles are not yet won. But what women have achieved this year marks 2018 as the beginning of an overhaul which will have a profound impact on future generations. It is a challenge to the future, rather than an answer to the past.

Important change takes time, but 2018 was a good step forward for women in New Zealand.

 

Against the national trend – “target for record low road toll”

With three days to go in the year this is premature, but barring end of year tragedy the Otago road toll is on target to be a modern low, bucking the national trend.

ODT:  On target for record low road toll

The number of deaths on Otago roads this year are on track to be the lowest recorded, as southern police increase their focus on notorious crash corridors.

Nine people have died on Otago roads in the year to December 27, compared with an average of 18 over the corresponding period in each of the previous four years.

The lowest annual road toll recorded in Otago was 11, in 2009, compared with a high of 43 in 1988.

That’s a huge change in three decades, and half the last four year average.

Nationally, 372 people have died on the roads this year, making 2018 the second deadliest year since 2010.

Otago coastal road policing team leader Senior Sergeant Jared Kirk, who began in the role in March, said a greater emphasis on deploying staff to the most lethal roads was a major driver of this year’s low toll, together with road safety improvements made by the NZ Transport Agency.

The majority of fatal crashes in his area happened on State Highway 1 north of Dunedin to Oamaru and south to Balclutha.

One significant aspect of this is that the toll is heavier well away from the increasingly heavy tourist traffic areas of Central Otago including Queenstown and Wanaka.

Government needs to step up and walk their transformational hype in 2019

Over the last year the incoming Labour-led Government had some big challenges, in particular to get themselves in a position to run the country after unexpected success in the 2017 election and subsequent coalition negotiations.

With some notable exceptions, like Clare Curran, Meka Whaitiri, and the difficulties getting Kiwibuild up to speed, they have largely been successful – so far.

2019 poses different challenges. The Government deferred many decisions by setting up a myriad of reviews, inquiries, working groups and whatever else they called their policy-formation-while-in-government devices. Some of these are supposed to address issues that they had claimed were urgent, like housing shortages, homelessness, poverty, mental health, health generally.

They have to be seen to taking semi-urgent action (belated) on a number of things.

Peter Wilson reviews what they have done this year in Year in NZ politics: Promises, scandals, progress (RNZ).

The government began 2018 with a largely inexperienced Cabinet and an ambitious First 100 Days programmeto implement. Parliament and the Beehive were frantic places but it pushed the legislation through.

National’s tax cuts were scrapped and in their place the Families Package was rolled out. Winter energy subsidies for pensioners came in and the billion-dollar-a-year regional development fund was signed off.

During the year the year the government set up its tax working group after promising there would be no changes during its first term in office.

Another flagship policy was introduced, making the first year of tertiary education free. At the beginning of this year, it hadn’t made much difference to enrolments and the government said it would take time to become effective.

Foreigners were banned from buying existing homes, the sale of state houses ended and the Pike River Recovery Agency was set up to supervise re-entry to the mine.

Ms Ardern took personal responsibility for reducing child poverty and holds the Cabinet portfolio.

The promise of KiwiBuild – 100,000 affordable homes in 10 years – began to deliver, but only just. It’s the one flagship policy that could damage the government, and evidence of success is so far elusive.

Finance Minister Grant Robertson presented a cautious Budget in May with an emphasis on rebuilding public services.

With the economy running well and the tax take up he was able to forecast strong surpluses which can be harvested in the next election year.

A healthy and improving economy, and the prudence of Minister of Finance Grant Robertson, have set this Government up for their second year in power.

The government can head into 2019 confident of its stability, but there are some big challenges in the New Year.

It has set up numerous reviews and inquiries into vital issues including health, justice and mental health. The rubber hits the road when those reports come in and ministers have to decide what to actually do about them.

This is, by its own claim, a transformational government. The status quo or minor tweaking won’t do.

It is not a transformational government, yet. Most tweaks so far have been relatively minor.

Prime Minister Ardern (in particular) and her Government talked a lot of talk about what they might do and what urgently needed doing in 2018.

2019 is the year they need to walk the walk, or they could stumble in election year in 2020.

It will probably take until May, budget month, to see how bold and how transformational the Government really wants to be.

And the future of this Government could depend a lot on what comes out of the tax working group. This won’t be easy because it was hobbled before it started looking into possible tax reforms, with some transformational options ruled out by Ardern and Labour.

Ardern has been given an easy ride by journalists so far, even to the extent that some fawn over her, but they need to put aside liking the Prime Minister and her baby and looking seriously into whether Ardern and her Government are going to live up to their PR hype.

That needs to happen in 2019.

Pope urges simpler lest materialistic life – for others

RNZ:  Pope calls for more compassion towards the poor

In his traditional Christmas Eve Mass, the Pope has urged people in the developed world to seek a simpler, less materialistic life and condemned the increasing gap between rich and poor.

“Let us ask ourselves: ‘Do I really need all these material objects and complicated recipes for living? Can I manage without all these unnecessary extras and live a life of greater simplicity?'” Pope Francis said.

“In our day, for many people, life’s meaning is found in possessing, in having an excess of material objects. An insatiable greed marks all human history, even today, when, paradoxically, a few dine luxuriantly while all too many go without the daily bread needed to survive,” he said.

Somewhat ironic given the excessive opulence of St Peter’s Basilica and the Vatican.

Pope Francis celebrates a mass on Christmas eve.

He didn’t say he would sell the huge gold candlesticks behind him and give the proceeds to the poor.

Pope Francis, the first pope from Latin America, has made defending the poor a hallmark of his papacy.

Another person who gets into a position of influence and power and talks the talk, but symbolises a walk in a different direction.