Newshub/Reid Research poll – June 2019

  • Labour 50.8% (up 3.3)
  • National 37.4% (down 4.2)
  • Greens 6.2% (up 1.1)
  • NZ First 2.8% (Down 0.1)

The poll was conducted between May 29 and June 7 with a margin of error of 3.1 percent.

The Colmar poll was conducted 4-8 June 2019.

The budget was released on May 29.

Quite different to the 1 News/Colmar Brunton poll – 1 News/Colmar Brunton poll – June 2019

The polling periods were different though.

 

Newshub

Newshub has been going for a day now and I have seen some aesthetic improvements but how it works will depend on news content. And so far content looks to be much the same as last week.

I like the look and feel of the Newshub website, that’s certainly an improvement.

I think the name change was worth a go. 3 News would always sound like it’s an also ran behind One News so it makes sense to ditch the number.

The new name may work out ok but visually it’s mixed.

Newshub at a glance looked to me like New shub, others thought it was Newshrub.

The logo makes it clear how the words are split:

Newshub - News from New Zealand

But when shown as text they have a problem. NewsHub, Newshub or Newshub may help, but I guess we’ll get used to it and forget about the word distinction.

However success of Newshub will depend on whether they can succeed in providing a compelling option for an integrated news platform.

This will be difficult in an increasingly fragmented media and news world. Fewer people have a favourite news provider and are increasingly likely to browse via Facebook or Twittter.

I like the Newshub website more than the old 3 News site. It’s clear and easy to find their Politics page.

But competing with them (for me) is another new hub for political news that gives me a much broader picture, which is what I want.

I an finding the NZ politics/media list on Facebook far more useful than any one news site.

Breaking: news as we knew it

On Twitter today NZ Herald went overboard with ‘breaking’ news about one of their main competitors, Mediaworks :

@nzherald

#BREAKING MediaWorks announces the end of 3News, to be replaced with Newshub Live. More soon

But it was soon pointed out:

.@nzherald They announced it October last year

They linked to this (30 October 2015) – MediaWorks reveals new multi-platform news service.

MediaWorks today revealed its new news service which will launch in early 2016.

Newshub will be a multi-platform TV, radio and digital news service, transforming MediaWorks’ award-winning 3 News and RadioLIVE News services into a combined organisation, beginning with the move to an integrated newsroom later this year.

The service will provide the latest news and in-depth analysis across one of New Zealand’s largest media organisations.

“We are bringing an entire organisation together from the TV, Radio and Digital newsrooms with a clear vision of how we can best serve the evolving New Zealand audience,” said MediaWorks Group CEO Mark Weldon.

The launch date is what was announced today – Multi-platform news service Newshub to launch February 1

MediaWorks’ new multi-platform news service will launch on February 1.

Newshub, an integrated digital, TV and radio news service, will provide breaking news and in-depth analysis across MediaWorks’ TV and radio channels, as well as online through a mobile app and website, the company says.

Newshub Live at 6pm will be presented by Mike McRoberts and Hilary Barry, while Jeff McTainsh will present Newshub Midday.

“Journalism is all about communities, and with our integration our ‘community’ has just got a lot wider,” McRoberts says.

Newsworthy will be rebranded as Newshub Late, and be hosted by Samantha Hayes. The weekend news bulletin will be hosted by Melissa Davies and Tom McRae, both of whom are returning from overseas posts.

The service will also provide news content across other programmes, such as Paul Henry and will place a strong emphasis on digital.

3 News was struggling to retain audience, as are most traditional media in a rapidly changing world. They had already tried a cross platform approach with Paul Henry’s morning television also broadcast over radio as well as promoting online content.

A danger for TV3 is turning off traditional viewers and failing to attract the new breed of Internet and smart phone users.

But the large media organisations have to try something to stay relevant in a diversifying media world where users are very easily distracted or diverted.

One thing that needs immediate attention is how they present their new brand. Newshub was criticised for being easily mis-recognised as…

  • New shub
  • New shrub

…and other things.

Is this Mike McRoberts’ new shub (shower with tub)?

The logo is clearer…

NewshubLogo

…but as text on Twitter and in news reports Newshub is not clearly defined.

 

Poll reactions

3 News released their latest Reid Research poll last night.  repeating the results:

  • National 46.7% (-0.6)
  • Labour 32.3% (-0.7)
  • Greens 10.2% (+0.2)
  • NZ First 7.5% (-0.4)
  • Maori Party 1.3% (+0.8)
  • Conservative Party 0.7% (0.2)
  • ACT Party 0.8% (+0.2)
  • UnitedFuture 0% (0)

There is no change of significance there, but that doesn’t stop part hopefuls reading positives and negatives into the result.

Te Reo Putake at The Standard: RWC and rapists: 3 News poll confirms a pretty average week for Key.

The latest Reid Research/3News poll is out. Key gets nothing from the RWC, and the rapist remarks turn out not to have helped his popularity either. There was a time when talkback radio style outbursts used to make him look strong. Nowadays, not so much. Meanwhile, the opposition are just 1 seat behind …

Anthony Robins at The Standard: Key’s rapists attack a dead cat that keeps biting

Was Key’s bizarre rant in Parliament – accusing Labour of supporting rapists and murderers – a deliberate “dead cat” strategy? If so then it has backfired badly. Still in the headlines 2 weeks later, and probably costing him in the polls.

I wonder what they woukld have said if the poll had changed support levels.

Minor movement in 3 News poll

Despite things like Christmas Island. Key.s rapist remarks and Labour’s conference the latest 3 News/Reid Research poll has barely move, with all but the Maori Party well within margins of error movements.

  • National 46.7% (-0.6)
  • Labour 32.3% (-0.7)
  • Greens 10.2% (+0.2)
  • NZ First 7.5% (-0.4)
  • Maori Party 1.3% (+0.8)
  • Conservative Party 0.7% (0.2)
  • ACT Party 0.8% (+0.2)
  • UnitedFuture 0% (0)

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • John Key 38.3% (-1.2)
  • Andrew Little 10.4%  (-0.4)
  • Winston Peters 9.3% (+0.7)
  • Jacinda Ardern 4.2% (+0.7)

Key has dropped a little, as has Little who hasn’t gained any traction after his well received (by party members) conference speech.

3NewsPollKeyNov2015

That trend through the year for Key should be causing a bit of concern.

3 News report: National still ahead in polls despite ‘rapist’ remarks

Pointless TPPA poll

3 News released a Reid Research poll on the TPPA tonight (presumably they wil drip feed minor results until the party poll on Sunday night).

  • Against TPPA 52%
  • For TPPA 34%
  • Don’t know 14%

The report said that the Government had a lot of work to do to get the public on side. What tosh. The Government has done all the work, now they need to go through the formalities in Parliament, hope all the other countries confirm they are in, and it will happen.

The public will probably have forgotten about it by the election in 2017, or hardly care about it.

Against votes per party:

  • National 23%
  • Labour 73%
  • Greens 84%
  • NZ First 87%

A bit of surprise to see NZ First voters least in favour. Perhaps they don’t care much for trade as long as their zimmer frames keep coming in from China. Or they may have been more concerned about drug costs.

 

3 News September poll

The September 2015 3 News/Reid Research poll was published tonight. It contrasts with the recent Roy Morgan poll which had National dropping to 44.5%.

  • National 47.3% (up 0.3)
  • Labour 33.0% (up 1.9)
  • Greens 10.0% (down 1.4)
  • NZ First 7.9% (down 0.5)
  • ACT Party 0.6% (up 0.1)
  • Maori Party 0.5% (down 0.1)
  • United Future 0.0% (down 0.1)
  • Conservative Party 0.5% (down 0.2)

National are holding up and Labour should be quietly hopeful after another rise, but at the expense of Greens and NZ First.

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • John Key 39.5% (up 1.2)
  • Andrew Little 10.8% (up 0.6)
  • Winston Peters 8.6% (up -2.5)
  • Jacinda Ardern 3.5%

Has the gloss gone off Winston’s Northland win? Both NZ First and he are down.

Do you want a change of flag?

  • No 69%
  • Yes 25%
  • Don’t know 6%

A big battle ahead for change.

Final four flags – online polls

The first flaf referendum will be to choose from the final four alternative flag desigs, but online polls run since the final four were released yesterday also included the current flag.

The four alternative flag designs

NZ Herald:

Which flag design do you like?

  • Silver Fern (Black, White and Blue) by Kyle Lockwood 32%
  • The original flag 28%
  • Silver Fern (Red, White and Blue) by Kyle Lockwood 21%
  • Silver Fern (Black & White) by Alofi Kanter 6%
  • Koru by Andrew Fyfe 4%
  • None of the above 9%

15500–15550 votes

Stuff:

Which flag do you prefer?

  • Keep the current flag (5759 votes) 39%
  • Silver Fern (Black, White and Blue) – Kyle Lockwood (4085 votes) 27%
  • Silver Fern (Red, White and Blue) – Kyle Lockwood (3436 votes) 23%
  • Black and White Fern – Alofi Kanter (893 votes) 6%
  • Koru – Andrew Fyfe (705 votes) 5%

3 News:

Which alternative Z flag design do you prefer?

  • Existing NZ flag (4989 votes) 52%
  • Kyle Lockwood’s Silver fern black and blue (2305 votes) 24%
  • Kyle Lockwood’s Silver fern red and blue (1313 votes) 14%
  • Alofi Kanter’s Silver fern black and white (625 votes) 6%
  • Black Koru (428 votes) 4%

Online polls are indicative only as they are self selecting non-scientific polls but thse give an indication of current levels of support for the alternatives and for retaining thje current flag.

Opinion is obviously quite divided and variable at this stage.

Television presenters versus celebrity entertainers

There has been continued moves towards ‘celebrity’ style entertainment in news and current affairs, away from presenters who are detached from the stories.

On Twitter yesterday:

I remember fondly the days when journalists weren’t the story. @JournalistsLike

I responded with “They’re now not just the story, they’re the show.”

The move towards celebrity fronted shows that use news and current affairs for material started with Paul Holmes. Until recently there was a long running John Campbell show, and now 3 News sets the tone for the day with the Paul Henry show.

Currently the One News home page is promoting two personalities associated with their Seven Sharp show, and the news that follows is lightweight at best:

OneNewsHome

3 News call all their news and current affairs programs ‘shows’.

3NewsShowsAnd personalities are promoted in most of those shows. Television has become 24/7 show time.

And this transformation from serious news presentation to entertainment looks like continuing, according to this item at NZ Herald:

Future uncertain for TV3 hosts

Hilary Barry and Mike McRoberts may no longer be the faces of 3 News when a major revamp takes place later this year.

TV3 Head of News Mark Jennings has revealed to the Herald that a new-look bulletin will launch in November, when the network integrates its television and radio newsrooms into one operation.

Jennings said 3 News will be “the next cab off the rank” following a complete overhaul of the network’s daily news programmes, including the launch of Story this week.

“If you look in the last six months, we’ve launched three new projects. Paul Henry, Newsworthy and now Story. We have put a lot of concentration and commitment into those products. Six o’clock probably hasn’t had quite the same attention.”

He said the revamp will focus predominantly on style and content, rather than presenter line-ups. However, he said he cannot rule out presenter changes as a possibility.

It would be sad if Barry and McRoberts are “revamped” and replaced with “style”. They are two of the best presenters currently on air – they don’t let their personalities dominate the stories. They may survive – but note that John Campbell didn’t survive a revamp.

The future is probably uncertain for all news and current affairs hosts in a ratings driven dumbed down celebrity obsessed television world.

At least we have a range of online options so we can filter out the candyfloss.

UPDATE: From Alan’s comment:

TV is becoming a niche for those too incompetent or passive to search out anything else.

Blog comments on the unpublished polls

Whale Oil broke the Labour internal polling story.I posted on The Standard’s take on it in Labour’s internal polling.

Cameron Slater has since posted THE DELUSIONS OF THE LEFT ON THEIR INTERNAL POLL.

Yesterday we published a couple of posts highlighting the stupidity of anyone believing the UMR polls, mainly because they are so far out of sync with the TV One & TV3 Polls. Remember that the two TV polls had Labour 15% behind National, yet Labour are now claiming their internal polls are at 41-35, a gap of 6.

The halfwits on the left immediately seized on this as a panic attack on Whaleoil, rather than a deliberate take down of a poll that has no credibility. Chris Trotter wrote at the Daily Bog:

“Something Very, Very Different”: Why rumours of Labour’s internal poll numbers are giving the Nats the heebie-jeebies

Who knows which National Party Chris is thinking about but the only thing Labour’s rigged poll has given National is a lot of laughs.

He also claims National polling had different results:

David Farrar occasionally takes time out of his hectic travel schedule to do some polling. He managed to squeeze in a bit of polling before heading to Fiji, and determined that Labour’s dog whistle hadn’t been heard at all, which is why National did not mount a vigorous attack on Labour’s racism.

That is also hearsay on unpublished polling so can’t be relied on.

To Chris Trotter’s post at The Daily Blog – “Something Very, Very Different”: Why rumours of Labour’s internal poll numbers are giving the Nats the heebie-jeebies

CAMERON SLATER is appealing directly to members of Labour’s caucus on his Whaleoil blog. Why? Because he’s just got wind of Labour’s internal poll numbers. According to Cameron: “Their internal polls show something very, very different from the publicly available polls. Apparently the gap between Labour & National is about 6 or 7 percent when the public polls have it at 15%.”

This can only mean that, in the usually highly accurate UMR poll, Labour is positioned somewhere between 34-36 percent and the National Party somewhere between 40 and 42 percent. At that level of support, it’s ‘Game Over!’ for John Key’s government. No wonder Cameron is doing everything he can to sow doubt in the minds of Andrew Little’s colleagues.

Clearly, these results have brought on an attack of the heebie-jeebies in National’s ranks. How else to explain the usually very crafty Mr Slater’s tactical lapse? Calling people’s attention to what he’s heard about Labour’s internal polling – when it’s this good – has given a major boost to the Left’s morale. It’s also boosted the credibility of the other big rumour doing the rounds about UMR’s polling: the one that puts the combined Labour-Green vote at 49 percent.

Cameron’s post may also serve to confirm the rumours about National’s own internal polling. According to these, Labour’s much criticised ‘China Play’ almost immediately began shaking erstwhile Labour voters loose from National’s tree in large numbers.

So there are contradictory ‘rumours’ about party internal polling. Surprise surprise. Which political pundit to believe? I’m very sceptical about what any of them say.

So, let us assume, purely for the sake of argument, that all the rumours are true and all the numbers are correct. It would mean that National has shed 6-7 percentage points directly to Labour. Interestingly, this is exactly what the Roy Morgan Poll of 17 July indicated.

It had National down 6.5 points to 43 percent, Labour up 6 points to 32 percent, and the combined Labour-Green vote on 45 percent. Admittedly, the Roy Morgan survey only caught the first day of Labour’s China Play, but, by the same token, it escaped the effects of ‘Paddy’s Play’ entirely.

Trotter talked up the Roy Morgan result, then disproves his initial point. He also as good as rubbished the latest published public poll:

That job was left to TV3’s Patrick Gower, who has been waging a virtual one-man-war against what he insists are Labour’s “cooked-up” statistics. How disappointed poor Paddy must have been when his week-long assault upon Labour for “playing the race card” was rewarded with a marginal increase in Labour’s support (from 30.4 to 31.1 percent) in the TV3/Reid Research Poll.

Trotter concluded his post with a Labour Party promo.

A UMR poll is mentioned but as it is unpublished it’s impossible to judge, either on a one on one comparison with other polls and on it’s trends.

David Farrar posted on the 3 News Poll – Latest poll.

I’ve blogged at Curia the results of the 3 News Reid Research poll broadcast last night.

Like the One News Colmar Brunton poll the previous week, it shows no bounce for from its targeting of people with Chinese surnames.

What it does show is that has fallen below Winston Peters as Preferred Prime Minister.

This is a feat never achieved by Phil Goff, David Shearer or David Cunliffe.

The last time an Opposition Leader failed to poll in the top two as Preferred Prime Minister was in October 2003 – 12 years ago. Later that month he was rolled in a coup.

So the results of Labour’s concede Northland to Winston strategy has been to have their leader fall into third place behind Winston as Preferred PM.

And the results of their decision to highlight home buyers with Chinese surnames has been to achieve nothing in the , but alienate many Chinese New Zealanders.

Curia is Farrar’s own polling company that amongst other things runs National’s internal polls, but he never reveals the results of those. So he only comments on the published poll results.

The most comprehensive poll coverage is from the non-partisan Colin James at Radio NZ with POLL of POLLS. This looks at rolling averages of polls, far more useful than cherry picking polls, especially unpublished ones, by those with political leanings.

Combined support for Labour and the Greens has overtaken National in the latest four-poll average, covering polls taken during July. And Labour has crept back up to 32.4 %, its highest since March 2014.

The Green Party, sporting new co-leader James Shaw, has climbed a bit to 13.0% but that is below its November 2014 ratings.

National is down to 44.5%. That is its lowest since October 2013. Still, it remains far ahead of all other parties and not far below its election score of 47.0%.

But Labour’s trend seems to be up and National’s down (for now). And Labour and the Greens combined lead National by 0.9% for the first time since February 2014.

So Labour plus Greens are at their highest for over a year – but last year’s election didn’t turn out very well for them.

The poll average chart shows that National has dipped and Labour has climbed:

Average last 4 polls since 2014 election.

*The poll of polls is an arithmetical average of the four most recent major polls since the election from among: TV1 Colmar Brunton, TV3 Reid Research, Fairfax Media-Ipsos, NZ Herald DigiPoll, Roy Morgan New Zealand and UMR Research, which is not published.

The four polls in the most recent average were, in order of interviewing, Morgan, TV1, TV3 and UMR (all in July). The first point on the charts is the actual election result and the polls averaged in the next three points straddled the election. The first point for which all polls were taken after the election is in mid-November.

So that includes the unpublished UMR poll. Again, without knowing any details or trends from them it’s hard to judge.

We will probably get a better idea about mid-august when Roy Morgan put out their next poll, They tend to vary quite a bit but that may give an indication whether their last poll was an indication of a sustainable opinion shift or if it was an outlier, as their May poll was seen as polling National in the mid fifties.

When Cameron Slater says “the stupidity of anyone believing the UMR polls” and Chris trotter says “the usually highly accurate UMR poll” you have to take pundit commentary with a grain of salt.

Remember that it’s more than two years until the next election. And also note that all polls are snapshots in time and ever coincide with election day. This is how they fared last election:

Final result chart

That’s from pollster Andrew at Grumpollie in How did the polls do? The final outcome. He includes details of how he worked that out.

It’s worth noting that the most recent published polls, One News and 3 News, had fairly similar results, unlike pre-election.

Polls are polls, mostly used by press, pundits and parties to make up stories.