Polls: Clinton steady, Trump rising

The RealClear Politics poll average has closed up to +2.8 Clinton in the US presidential race. This seems largely  due to Trump picking up support from undecideds and the Liberal candidate Johnson, as Clinton’s support has trended quite steadily at about 45%.

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But that’s just the overall vote, it doesn’t take into account the state by state Electoral College votes that will decide the election. Trump still has a difficult pathway to victory.

The FiveThirtyEight ‘chance of winning’ has closed up a little but still favours Clinton with 77.8% to Trump’s 22.2%.

However it is too soon to tell how much effect the FBI announcement on Friday might have. Polls may swing more in favour of Trump, but a bounce back to Clinton could also happen as it becomes clear to voters that there is nothing in the FBI that incriminates Clinton, it just reminds voters of her email indiscretions.

And there’s still a week to go so there could be more twists and turns in this bizarre campaign.

Like Wikileaks Announces Imminent Launch of “Phase 3” of Coverage

Perhaps one of the worst possible outcomes could happen, where Trump wins the popular vote overall but Clinton becomes president through the Electoral College numbers (similar to how GW Bush beat Al Gore in 2000).

This would make a very grump electorate even grumpier.

US polls closing pre-FBI effect

The US presidential election has been rocked by a vague FBI announcement of an investigation into emails that may have some link to Hillary Clinton’s controversial email server.

The FBI asnnouncing an investigation in advance is unusual, and announcing it less than two weeks before an election with early voting already under way in many states is unprecedented.

There has been no claim of proof of wrongdoing. FBI director James Comey stated “…the FBI cannot yet assess whether or not this material may be significant”.

However Donald Trump is claiming charged and convicted, and his chanting crowds have sentenced Clinton already.

Nate Silver: Election Update: The FBI Is Back — This Time With Anthony Weiner

The emails apparently came from electronic devices belonging to Anthony Weiner, the former congressman, and his wife, Huma Abedin, an aide to Clinton, and surfaced as part of an investigation into lewd text messages that Weiner sent to underage women. It isn’t clear that the emails directly implicate Clinton, and the reporting I’ve followed so far suggests that in a legal sense, Comey’s decision to inform Congress may be something done out of an “abundance of caution.”

But in a political sense, there’s certainly some downside for Clinton in the appearance of headlines containing the words “FBI,” “investigation” and “email” just 11 days before the election.

But it’s too soon to tell what level of ‘downside’ there is for Clinton via polls, although they have been closing up prior to the FBI bombshell of bugger all.

We’ve reached the point in the campaign in which there are so many polls coming in — state polls, national polls, tracking polls, one-off polls — that it’s really nice to have a model to sort out all the data. A couple of days ago, the model was beginning to detect tenuous signs that the presidential race was tightening.

Now, that seems a bit clearer. Clinton’s lead over Donald Trump is now 5.7 percentage points in our polls-only model, down from 7.1 points on Oct. 17.

The RealClear Politics rolling average is now +4.6% in Clinton’s favour.

And Trump’s chances of winning the election have recovered to 18 percent from a low of 12 percent. Trump’s chances in our polls-plus forecast are 21 percent, improved from a low of 15 percent.

A number of sources have reported that Clinton’s support had remained fairy stable at around 46/47%, but Trump’s had been creeping up in the low forties.

FiveThirtyEight prediction trend:

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The Clinton camp will be following polls more anxiously over the next few days.

 

Latest US polls show Trump slump

The latest US presidential polls (they have a lot of them) from Real Clear Politics:

USPolls5Aug16

New Hampshire and Florida are seen as key states in presidential contests.

There’s quite a range of margins but all in Clinton’s favour. Trump may have to try playing a different hand, if it’s not too late.

And from Five Thirty Eight: Trump’s Slump Deepens In The Polls

There’s no longer any doubt that the party conventions have shifted the presidential election substantially toward Hillary Clinton. She received a larger bounce from her convention than Donald Trump got from his, but Trump has continued to poll so poorly in state and national surveys over the past two days that his problems may be getting worse.

 

Clinton out-bounces Trump

It’s not long since the Democrat convention but there have been several polls that suggest a bounce back for Hillary Clinton after Donald Trump appeared to have benefited from the Republican convention the week before.

In fact Five Thirty Eight have updated  Clinton’s Bounce Appears Bigger Than Trump’s:

UPDATE (Aug. 1, 6:11 p.m.): Hillary Clinton’s post-convention lead over Donald Trump has continued to grow as more polls have come in, according to our models. Check our forecasts for the latest numbers.

Earlier:

Initial polls conducted after the Democratic National Convention suggest that Hillary Clinton has received a convention bounce. In fact, it appears likely that Clinton’s bounce will exceed Donald Trump’s, which measured at 3 to 4 percentage points.

Thus, Clinton will potentially exit the conventions in a stronger position than she entered them, perhaps also making up for some of the ground she lost to Trump earlier in July. This is good news for Clinton,

But…

…we’ll need to wait a few weeks to see if she can sustain her bounce before we can conclude that the race has been fundamentally changed.

The fully post-convention polls so far:

  • A CBS News poll has Clinton ahead by 5 percentage points, in the version of the poll that includes third-party candidates (which is the version FiveThirtyEight uses). Trump led Clinton by 1 point in a CBS News poll conducted just after the RNC, so that would count as a 6-point bounce for Clinton.
  • A Morning Consult poll also showed Clinton up by 5 percentage points, representing a 9-point swing toward her from a poll they conducted last week after the RNC.
  • A RABA Research national poll, conducted on Friday after the convention, has Clinton with a 15-point lead. RABA Research’s national poll has been something of a pro-Clinton outlier. Still, the trend in the poll is favorable for Clinton. She’d led Trump by 5 percentage points in RABA Research’s poll just after the RNC, meaning that she got a 10-point bounce.
  • Finally, a Public Policy Polling survey has Clinton up by 5 percentage points. Because PPP did not conduct a post-RNC poll, we can’t directly measure Clinton’s bounce. But their previous national poll, in late June, showed Clinton up by 4 percentage points. Therefore, their data tends to confirm our notion that the conventions may have reset the race to approximately where it was in June, which was a strong month of polling for Clinton.

Five Thirty Eight ‘chance of winning’: Clinton 64.8%, Trump 35.1%

538Trend

There’s still three months until the election.

Now the conventions are over…

Now the US main party conventions are over there is still another three months of campaigning, so a lot could happen to change the presidential race.

Donald Trump got a poll bounce after the republican convention but it’s too soon to tell whether Hillary Clinton gets a balancing or beneficial bounce from the just completed Democrat convention.

The latest FiveThirtyEight election forecasts:

  • Polls-only: Clinton 53.3%, Trump 46.7%
  • Polls-plus: Clinton 61.7%, Trump 38.3%

Note that the US president isn’t elected by popular vote, it is decided by electoral college votes decided state by state.

ABC Australia explains: What happens between now and November 8?

Now begins just over three more months of stump speeches, town hall meetings and non-stop campaigning.

To win the presidential election on November 8, the Republican Mr Trump or the Democrat Mrs Clinton needs to win at least 270 electoral college votes.

Each state and the District of Columbia award electoral votes. If a candidate wins the majority in a state they take all of the electoral votes.

Small states like Vermont and Delaware get three votes, larger states like New York and Florida get 29, Texas has 38 and the biggest prize, California, is worth 55 electoral votes.

The winner needs 270 votes to claim the White House. Here’s where each candidate stands based on current polling:

  • Hillary Clinton leads in states with 202 electoral votes
  • Trump got a bounce from his convention last week. His total is now 164

We don’t know yet whether Clinton will bounce back on the back of the Democrat convention.

Some states have more importance than others.

Florida is a major prize and it has been decisive in two of the last four elections. It is a growing population which may favour Clinton, but it is tight.

Mr Trump has his eyes on the old rust belt of the industrial mid-west, from Pennsylvania to Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin.

That is why you will hear him talking a lot about bringing jobs back from overseas, beating China at trade, making things in America and “making America great again”.

Clinton is a conventional establishment candidate, except that she is also playing the ‘first woman candidate’ card hard. That may or may not help her.

Trump is still an unknown quantity apart from surprising many about how well he has done so far. He is an anti-establishment candidate which has won him a lot of support but also strengthen opposition.

The election will in part be decided by how the two candidates perform over the next three months.

Voters may start to take a more serious look at what a win by either candidate would mean for them personally and for the US – a lot of Americans tend to not think much or care much about the rest of the world. But world events may play a part, especially terrorism and potential threats posed by other major powers.

So far the contest has been very unpredictable, thanks to Trump. Expect him to continue to try and cause upheaval.

But the result may come down to nuts and bolts campaigning. Clinton has a much better organised campaign across the country. Trump’s relatively disorganised and unconventional campaign has to try and catch up in that respect, or they may simply fail to get enough potential supporters to vote, especially in key states.

About the only certainty is that the attention seeking and attention getting will continue.

Democracy in the US may not look pretty – and often looks quite ugly – but that’s something the media thrives on.

US President polls

A bit has been made of a 538 forecast suggesting a Trump win in the presidential election. But 538 run three separate forecasts:

Now-cast: Who would win an election today?

  • Clinton 45.8%
  • Trump 54.2%

538NowCast26July

That is straight after the Republican convention but before the Democrat convention.

Polls-only forecast: What polls alone tell us about Nov. 8

  • Clinton 53.2%
  • Trump 46.8%

Polls-plus forecast: What polls, the economy and historical data tell us about Nov. 8

 

  • Clinton 59.6%
  • Trump 40.4%

 

 

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