National have had problems with bad polls and with MP candidates promoting themselves and not the party, and running nutty attacks like Alfred Ngaro – see National MP Alfred Ngaro accused of spreading ‘gross piece of misinformation’ on Facebook.
Judith Collins did something about that – Collins intervenes after controversial abortion post:
Collins said Ngaro’s views weren’t shared by the party.
“You know, he’s someone who passionately believes exactly what he’s put up there and I don’t and and neither does the party.”
Collins said MPs get help with their social media, and in this case it was his own views and shouldn’t have had National Party branding on it.
It sounds like a concession that Ngaro is running his own campaign. That suggests National have poor control over their campaign and their candidates.
On campaigning yesterday: Good day/bad day: The leader walking on sunshine
In the same town, National leader Judith Collins is being undermined by her own candidates. Former leaders Todd Muller and Simon Bridges have been going merrily off-message with full page newspaper ads and billboards showing their photos – but no mention of Collins. Strategy: two ticks for the local candidates
But Collins has taken to attacks in her campaigning as well. Perhaps she sees it as a last ditch effort to save her leadership, as National seems beyond saving this election.
Collins was even more off-message herself, with some provocative rhetoric in which she blamed the personal “weakness” of overweight people for the country’s obesity problems. And the day got worse: she compared exploratory gas drilling to a pregnancy ultrasound scan. That’s a metaphor too uncomfortable to contemplate.
RNZ: Obese people must take responsibility for ‘personal choices’
When told that some had called her comments heartless, Collins said: “Do you know what is heartless? Is actually thinking someone else can cure these issues. We can all take personal responsibility and we all have to own up to our little weaknesses on these matters.
“Do not blame systems for personal choices.”
To an extent Collins is right here, but this won’t win over many votes, and is more likely to lose some.
RNZ: Judith Collins says Jacinda Ardern ‘lied’ about Covid border testing
Collins began her morning campaigning with a transport policy combined with an attack on the Greens’ wealth tax in Grenada, but later turned her attention squarely on Ardern and Covid-19.
She told a public meeting at Waikanae Bowling Club that Ardern and her government had “let Covid in” and Ardern had “lied” about the testing of border staff.
“When she says she went hard and fast she went slow and pathetic, and actually the other thing she did was she lied to us about what was happening and I’m happy to say that on the record – she lied.
“Gee I hope she sues me for it. Happy to prove it.”
Support for Ardern and for Labour surged due too their handling of Covid so it’s hard to see what Collins is trying to achieve here.
RNZ: Judith Collins’ final week attacks ‘bizarre’, ‘desperate’ – pundits
“Her incentives to do that are, she’s looking at bleeding a fair few votes to other parties on the centre right, in particular ACT, and … it’s an attempt to inject some relevance and appear as if the contest is a one-on-one battle between the National leader and the Labour leader.”
“I think that when you start accusing a party leader we know has very high favourability ratings, very high trust levels, calling them a liar, that you’re not going for median voters, you’re not going for those centre voters there.
“You’re really trying to appeal to that base.”
The language being employed by Collins doesn’t “come from a position of strength”, he says.
The problem for Collins is the National base seems to have shrunk substantially. The essential swing voters are unlikely to be impressed by her attacks.
And trying to sound strong when you’re obviously in a weak position is unlikely to fool anyone.
Former United Future leader Peter Dunne thinks Collins’ comments were “a little bizarre”.
“I think they reflect the fact that National’s now not looking to win over uncommitted voters, so much as hold its own base in line, and I think this is what these comments were directed at.”
“I think National now is in a hold-the-line mode, rather than a win mode.”
“This election is very unusual in the way it’s panned out. I think National has gone from earlier in the year, pre-Covid, looking more than likely to win the election, to now looking most unlikely to do so. And I think they’ve had some trouble adjusting to the change in public mood.
“That’s why some of the comments do sound pretty desperate.
The pressure of imminent and heavy defeat seems to be taking it’s toll.
University of Auckland politics lecturer Dr Lara Greaves says it’s been a long campaign and a “very” long year.
She says it’s hard to know if Collins’ negativity is a strategy or not.
“It’s kind of unclear exactly who she is trying to appeal to here. I mean at this point, around half of the voters have voted. It’s not clear whether this is something that a swing voter or fence-sitter would be that into.
“Potentially she is trying to look towards that National Party base, trying to take some voters from ACT, or some old New Zealand First voters from those segments that are a little more fiery and would view some of those comments she’s made today as a little more acceptable.”
She doesn’t necessarily think it will win over swing voters.
“I think realistically, she’s just trying to save the furniture, and it’s not really clear that this is a good strategy for that.”
National have had a poor term, a poor year and a poor campaign that seems to be a shambles. Those MPs who survive – they may lose up to a third of their MPs – will have a big job to do to repair the damage and rebuild next term.
