Dairy price jump

The latest Global Dairy Trade auction has seen average prices jump by 11.4% to the highest level since July 2014.

gdt2016nov1index

Prices have been up and down quite a bit so it’s not possible to know if this is a jump as part of a positive trend or a bit of a blip.

gdt2016nov1trend

What dairy prices do could have a significant impact on next year’s election. A dairy recovery is likely to help National as long as the rest of the economy stays good.

Slight recovery of dairy prices

Dairy prices are up 3.8% overall in the latest global auction, the second small rise in a row, but this is just a slight recovery after tough times as this trend chart shows

GlobalDairyTrade10yrto20160419

A significant recovery in dairy prices isn’t expected this year.

 

Dairy slump continues

There’s no sign of recovery for dairy prices with another drop in auction prices overnight.

15 March 2016 auction result:

DairyAuctionMar2016

10 year trends:

DairyAuction10yrtrendMar2016

Tough times continue.

 

 

Ups and downs of dairy prices

After a major decline dairy prices trended back up for four auctions from August, but the trend is negative again after three successive drops.

 

DairyAuctionNov2015

And the 10 year index:

DairyAuction10YrTrendNov2015

After a little hope of recovery more worry for New Zealand dairying and the economy.

Source: Global Dairy Trade

Fourth milk price increase in a row

The latest milk auction prices are up again, the fourth increase in a row following a major slump that began about eighteen months ago. The latest prices increased overall by about 10%. The volume sold is also increasing.

MilkAuction2015-10-06

The price movements over the past ten years:

MilkAuction2015-10-06Trend

There may be some cautious optimism in the dairy industry that a recovery is under way.

Site: GlobalDairyTrade

Milk prices up again

For the third dairy auction in a row prices have risen significantly, this time up 16.5% overall. There’s a way to go before it can be called a recovery but the trend looks promising.

DairyAuctionSep2015

Ten year trend:

DairyAuctionSep2015-10yearTrend

Dairy prices up 14.8%

Just one rise after five months of falls but the latest dairy auction gives a little hope that the steep decline may have bottomed out. 14.8% is a significant turnaround.

Radio NZ reports Dairy price rise after months of losses:

Dairy prices have risen an average 14.8 percent in the fortnightly GlobalDairyTrade auction overnight, ending a five-month run of losses.

It is the first rise in the dairy price index since March.

The benchmark whole milk powder price has risen by 19.1 percent, to $US1856 ($NZ2820.68) a tonne.

The overall average price for dairy commodities has come in at $US1974 a tonne.

The amount of product put up for auction dropped by 9623 metric tonnes offered at the previous auction a fortnight ago to 36,904 metric tonnes.

That gives the dairy industry and the New Zealand economy some hope after a run of bad news.

At least it has temporarily stemmed a depressing decline.

DairyAuctionTrendAug2015

DairyAuction10YrTrendAug2015

Source: GlobalDairyTrade

Auckland property sales today

I’ve been given some information on Auckland property sales by someone who sold a property at auction today. He gave me prior notice, saying he would be…

…selling a residential investment property valued at the $1million mark. It has been marketed vigorously by a leading agent (not B&T) for three weeks. We have had 70 interested parties through. It is an attractive property. There will be seven that we know of bidding at the auction tomorrow.
Of the 70 through, only one was of offshore Chinese stock. They have indicated that they will not be bidding.
My agent says the the current fuss is a load of codswallop.

And today:

The property was sold for 36% above CV 1 July 2014. There were seven bidders. Only one was non-NZ. This person was a pakeha NZer long term resident in Hong Kong looking for a place to have back in Auckland.

All the bidders were pakeha NZers.

My view is that this successful sale reflects the robustness of the NZ economy in this part of the market, and the low interest rates available from the mainstream banks. For most NZers, this is all good news.

The successful bidder is moving into  a residence they want, and selling their current property to some other NZer that wants it.

This is called the market in most jurisdictions.

There were a total of nine places auctioned, with all similar results to ours. Some non-pakeha bidders, but all plainly NZers. Perhaps supply is a push factor too as all properties were keenly contested.

Sounds like willing Kiwi buyers, happy seller (who gave me his name and contact details).