Mt Roskill by-election

The Mt Roskill by-election is tomorrow, but the campaign has failed to raise much interest. It’s expected that Labour’s Michael Wood, anointed and promoted by Phil Goff who has left the electorate to become mayor of Auckland, will win, and probably comfortably.

For Labour’s sake Wood has to win well. They have put a lot of effort into campaigning.

National’s candidate Parmjeet Parmar stood in Mt Roskill in the 2014 general election but lost to Goff by 8,091 votes. National got over 2,000 more party votes, but a Government candidate has never won an election off an opposition party before. John Key has been playing down his candidate’s chances.

Roshan Nauhria is standing for the recently formed New Zealand People’s Party, mainly on immigration and law and order issues. He was cold shouldered by media in some debates as they often do. It will at least give an indication of whether Nauhria’s party has much chance of competing in next year’s general election.

The other candidates have been virtually ignored by media coverage outside the area so I have no idea whether any have made any impression. They are:

  • Richard Goode (NAP)
  • Andrew Leitch (Democrats for Social Credit)
  • Tua Schuster (Independent)
  • Brandon Stronge (The Cannabis Party)

I haven’t seen media murmuring about a surprise result. There was one claimed poll which gave Wood a huge lead but without any details that should be ignored.

Yesterday the Herald suggested Mt Roskill: closer than you think but that is largely based on past voting and electorate demographics.

Voter turnout could be important. Parties will be working hard to ensure their supporters actually bother to vote.

Early voting up to Wednesday was tracking well below that in the last general election. By-elections usually have lower turnouts.

avp_stats_02_12_16

Updated with Thursday’s numbers showing no sign of a late surge.

So it’s up to the Mt Roskill voters tomorrow to decide who they have for an MP for the next 9-11 months.

The New Zealand politics task force is prepared for what looks to be the likely outcome:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:WikiProject_New_Zealand/politics/New_MPs/Michael_Wood_(New_Zealand_politician)