10 million Covid cases, half a million deaths

The Covid case count has just topped ten million on Worldometer (it is currently 9.96 million at Reuters and 9.81 million at JHU but they will also pass 10 million today).

New case numbers climbed rapidly in March, levelled off, but then took off again late May and increased by 180,000 on Thursday and 194 thousand on Friday (current numbers are Saturday GMT).

This is just confirmed cases, there are likely to be many more than this.

A quarter of the cases – two and a half million – are in the United States. Numbers there had seemed to peak in April, dropped back a bit from there but have also surged again in the last week with the worst of the problem there moving to different states, where lockdowns were light or relaxed too soon.

Reuters: Florida, Arizona, Nevada hit daily highs for COVID-19 cases

Florida, Arizona and Nevada recorded daily highs for cases of COVID-19 on Saturday, highlighting the worsening spread of the virus in several southern and western states, prompting some of them to rollback their reopening plans.

The surge in cases has been most pronounced in a handful of southern and western states that reopened earlier and more aggressively, serving as a warning to the potentially illusory nature of any perceived progress in controlling the virus.

On Friday, as the United States recorded its largest daily case count of the pandemic, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, said the government’s current strategy for finding and isolating infected people was “not working,” partly due to significant asymptomatic spread.

The number of deaths world wide is also likely to pass half a million today as well (currently 499,001).

UPDATE: deaths now 500,533

And a quarter of those deaths are in the US (128,000).

It’s not just the deaths that are causing problems – Scientists just beginning to understand the many health problems caused by COVID-19

Scientists are only starting to grasp the vast array of health problems caused by the novel coronavirus, some of which may have lingering effects on patients and health systems for years to come, according to doctors and infectious disease experts.

Besides the respiratory issues that leave patients gasping for breath, the virus that causes COVID-19 attacks many organ systems, in some cases causing catastrophic damage.

“We thought this was only a respiratory virus. Turns out, it goes after the pancreas. It goes after the heart. It goes after the liver, the brain, the kidney and other organs. We didn’t appreciate that in the beginning,” said Dr. Eric Topol, a cardiologist and director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute in La Jolla, California.

In addition to respiratory distress, patients with COVID-19 can experience blood clotting disorders that can lead to strokes, and extreme inflammation that attacks multiple organ systems. The virus can also cause neurological complications that range from headache, dizziness and loss of taste or smell to seizures and confusion.

And recovery can be slow, incomplete and costly, with a huge impact on quality of life.

The broad and diverse manifestations of COVID-19 are somewhat unique, said Dr. Sadiya Khan, a cardiologist at Northwestern Medicine in Chicago.

With influenza, people with underlying heart conditions are also at higher risk of complications, Khan said. What is surprising about this virus is the extent of the complications occurring outside the lungs.

Khan believes there will be a huge healthcare expenditure and burden for individuals who have survived COVID-19.

A lot of work is being done to try to deal with this. As world approaches 10 million coronavirus cases, doctors see hope in new treatments

Doctors say they’ve learned enough about the highly contagious virus to solve some key problems for many patients. The changes could be translating into more saved lives, although there is little conclusive data.

Nearly 30 doctors around the world, from New Orleans to London to Dubai, told Reuters they feel more prepared should cases surge again in the fall.

“​We are well-positioned for a second wave,” Patel said. “We know so much more.”

Doctors like Patel now have:

  • A clearer grasp of the disease’s side effects, like blood clotting and kidney failure
  • A better understanding of how to help patients struggling to breathe
  • More information on which drugs work for which kinds of patients.

They also have acquired new tools to aid in the battle, including:

  • Widespread testing
  • Promising new treatments like convalescent plasma, antiviral drugs and steroids
  • An evolving spate of medical research and anecdotal evidence, which doctors share across institutions, and sometimes across oceans.

Despite a steady rise in COVID-19 cases, driven to some extent by wider testing, the daily death toll from the disease is falling in some countries, including the United States. Doctors say they are more confident in caring for patients than they were in the chaotic first weeks of the pandemic, when they operated on nothing but blind instinct.

A vaccine is probably some time away from becoming widely available despite many teams of scientists working on one.

RNZ – Human trial of new vaccine begins in UK:

About 300 people will have the vaccine over the coming weeks, as part of a trial led by Prof Robin Shattock and his colleagues, at Imperial College London.

Tests in animals suggest the vaccine is safe and triggers an effective immune response.

Experts at Oxford University have already started human trials.

The trials are among many across the world – there are around 120 vaccine programmes under way.

Prof Shattock said: “We’ve been able to produce a vaccine from scratch and take it to human trials in just a few months.

“If our approach works and the vaccine provides effective protection against disease, it could revolutionise how we respond to disease outbreaks in future.”

Healthline: Here’s Exactly Where We Are with Vaccines and Treatments for COVID-19

These drugs are still being tested in clinical trials to see whether they’re effective against COVID-19. This step is needed to make sure the medications are safe for this particular use and what the proper dosage should be.

It could be months before treatments are available that are known to work against COVID-19. It could be even longer for a vaccine.

“Even though technological advances allow us to do certain things more quickly,” Lee told Healthline, “we still have to rely on social distancing, contact tracing, self-isolation, and other measures.”

And that is what we are relying on in New Zealand, with now stringent (after some hiccups) isolation and testing of people coming into the country. While the number of active cases is rising, having been on zero for a while, we have just 16 and they are all contained in quarantine, and are all new Zealand citizens or residents returning to the country.

Some semblance of normality has returned to the country, except for international travel. The borders will have too remain strictly limited and controlled probably for the rest of the year at least. Even the hoped for bubble with Australia looks to be some time away after a resurgence of cases in Victoria in particular.

Even Donald Trump seems constrained after a return to running political rallies proved to be not very popular with the population, and after a number of Covid cases hitting his organising team. And now Journalist who attended Oklahoma Trump rally tests positive for Covid-19

After a number of absurd claims about testing trump now seems to be trying to ignore Covid and belatedly divert – Trump says he is staying in Washington to protect law and order

U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday canceled a planned weekend visit to his golf resort in Bedminster, New Jersey, and said he was staying in Washington “to make sure LAW & ORDER is enforced.”

“The arsonists, anarchists, looters, and agitators have been largely stopped,” Trump wrote on Twitter. “I am doing what is necessary to keep our communities safe – and these people will be brought to Justice!”

Trump has pledged to take a hard line on anyone destroying or vandalizing historical U.S. monuments and has threatened to use force on some protesters, as activism against racial injustice sweeps the country.

What’s he going too do, personally pepper spray anyone who protests or criticises him? More diversion from the Covid crisis:

There are far more urgent health problems facing the US right now. He has done an abysmal job of leading the country worst affected by Covid and sadly for the US that doesn’t look like changing.

Trump’s decision to cancel his trip to New Jersey comes amid a spike in coronavirus cases in many states.

White House spokesman Judd Deere said the cancellation was not related to New Jersey’s requirement that visitors from states with high coronavirus infection rates self-quarantine for 14 days upon arrival.

Trump visited one of the states with high rates, Arizona, earlier this week.

Trump tweets while the country burns.

Other countries with major and growing Covid problems are Brazil, Peru, India, Russia and Mexico (which may have contracted the problem from neighbouring USA).

The pandemic is going to remain a big problem for some time to come.

 

10 million Covid cases

The Covid case count has just topped ten million on Worldometer (it is currently 9,9 million at Reuters and 9.874 million at JHU but they will also pass 10 million today).

New case numbers climbed rapidly in March, levelled off, but then took off again late May and increased by 180,000 on Thursday and 194 thousand on Friday (current numbers are Saturday GMT).

This is just confirmed cases, there are likely to be many more than this.

A quarter of the cases – two and a half million – are in the United States. Numbers there had seemed to peak in April, dropped back a bit from there but have also surged again in the last week with the worst of the problem there moving to different states, where lockdowns were light or relaxed too soon.

Reuters: Florida, Arizona, Nevada hit daily highs for COVID-19 cases

Florida, Arizona and Nevada recorded daily highs for cases of COVID-19 on Saturday, highlighting the worsening spread of the virus in several southern and western states, prompting some of them to rollback their reopening plans.

The surge in cases has been most pronounced in a handful of southern and western states that reopened earlier and more aggressively, serving as a warning to the potentially illusory nature of any perceived progress in controlling the virus.

On Friday, as the United States recorded its largest daily case count of the pandemic, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, said the government’s current strategy for finding and isolating infected people was “not working,” partly due to significant asymptomatic spread.

The number of deaths world wide is also likely to pass half a million today as well (currently 499,001).

And a quarter of those deaths are in the US (128,000).

It’s not just the deaths that are causing problems – Scientists just beginning to understand the many health problems caused by COVID-19

Scientists are only starting to grasp the vast array of health problems caused by the novel coronavirus, some of which may have lingering effects on patients and health systems for years to come, according to doctors and infectious disease experts.

Besides the respiratory issues that leave patients gasping for breath, the virus that causes COVID-19 attacks many organ systems, in some cases causing catastrophic damage.

“We thought this was only a respiratory virus. Turns out, it goes after the pancreas. It goes after the heart. It goes after the liver, the brain, the kidney and other organs. We didn’t appreciate that in the beginning,” said Dr. Eric Topol, a cardiologist and director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute in La Jolla, California.

In addition to respiratory distress, patients with COVID-19 can experience blood clotting disorders that can lead to strokes, and extreme inflammation that attacks multiple organ systems. The virus can also cause neurological complications that range from headache, dizziness and loss of taste or smell to seizures and confusion.

And recovery can be slow, incomplete and costly, with a huge impact on quality of life.

The broad and diverse manifestations of COVID-19 are somewhat unique, said Dr. Sadiya Khan, a cardiologist at Northwestern Medicine in Chicago.

With influenza, people with underlying heart conditions are also at higher risk of complications, Khan said. What is surprising about this virus is the extent of the complications occurring outside the lungs.

Khan believes there will be a huge healthcare expenditure and burden for individuals who have survived COVID-19.

A lot of work is being done to try to deal with this. As world approaches 10 million coronavirus cases, doctors see hope in new treatments

Doctors say they’ve learned enough about the highly contagious virus to solve some key problems for many patients. The changes could be translating into more saved lives, although there is little conclusive data.

Nearly 30 doctors around the world, from New Orleans to London to Dubai, told Reuters they feel more prepared should cases surge again in the fall.

“​We are well-positioned for a second wave,” Patel said. “We know so much more.”

Doctors like Patel now have:

  • A clearer grasp of the disease’s side effects, like blood clotting and kidney failure
  • A better understanding of how to help patients struggling to breathe
  • More information on which drugs work for which kinds of patients.

They also have acquired new tools to aid in the battle, including:

  • Widespread testing
  • Promising new treatments like convalescent plasma, antiviral drugs and steroids
  • An evolving spate of medical research and anecdotal evidence, which doctors share across institutions, and sometimes across oceans.

Despite a steady rise in COVID-19 cases, driven to some extent by wider testing, the daily death toll from the disease is falling in some countries, including the United States. Doctors say they are more confident in caring for patients than they were in the chaotic first weeks of the pandemic, when they operated on nothing but blind instinct.

A vaccine is probably some time away from becoming widely available despite many teams of scientists working on one.

RNZ – Human trial of new vaccine begins in UK:

About 300 people will have the vaccine over the coming weeks, as part of a trial led by Prof Robin Shattock and his colleagues, at Imperial College London.

Tests in animals suggest the vaccine is safe and triggers an effective immune response.

Experts at Oxford University have already started human trials.

The trials are among many across the world – there are around 120 vaccine programmes under way.

Prof Shattock said: “We’ve been able to produce a vaccine from scratch and take it to human trials in just a few months.

“If our approach works and the vaccine provides effective protection against disease, it could revolutionise how we respond to disease outbreaks in future.”

Healthline: Here’s Exactly Where We Are with Vaccines and Treatments for COVID-19

These drugs are still being tested in clinical trials to see whether they’re effective against COVID-19. This step is needed to make sure the medications are safe for this particular use and what the proper dosage should be.

It could be months before treatments are available that are known to work against COVID-19. It could be even longer for a vaccine.

“Even though technological advances allow us to do certain things more quickly,” Lee told Healthline, “we still have to rely on social distancing, contact tracing, self-isolation, and other measures.”

And that is what we are relying on in New Zealand, with now stringent (after some hiccups) isolation and testing of people coming into the country. While the number of active cases is rising, having been on zero for a while, we have just 16 and they are all contained in quarantine, and are all new Zealand citizens or residents returning to the country.

Some semblance of normality has returned to the country, except for international travel. The borders will have too remain strictly limited and controlled probably for the rest of the year at least. Even the hoped for bubble with Australia looks to be some time away after a resurgence of cases in Victoria in particular.

Even Donald Trump seems constrained after a return to running political rallies proved to be not very popular with the population, and after a number of Covid cases hitting his organising team. And now Journalist who attended Oklahoma Trump rally tests positive for Covid-19

After a number of absurd claims about testing trump now seems to be trying to ignore Covid and belatedly divert – Trump says he is staying in Washington to protect law and order

U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday canceled a planned weekend visit to his golf resort in Bedminster, New Jersey, and said he was staying in Washington “to make sure LAW & ORDER is enforced.”

“The arsonists, anarchists, looters, and agitators have been largely stopped,” Trump wrote on Twitter. “I am doing what is necessary to keep our communities safe – and these people will be brought to Justice!”

Trump has pledged to take a hard line on anyone destroying or vandalizing historical U.S. monuments and has threatened to use force on some protesters, as activism against racial injustice sweeps the country.

What’s he going too do, personally pepper spray anyone who protests or criticises him? More diversion from the Covid crisis:

There are far more urgent health problems facing the US right now. He has done an abysmal job of leading the country worst affected by Covid and sadly for the US that doesn’t look like changing.

Trump’s decision to cancel his trip to New Jersey comes amid a spike in coronavirus cases in many states.

White House spokesman Judd Deere said the cancellation was not related to New Jersey’s requirement that visitors from states with high coronavirus infection rates self-quarantine for 14 days upon arrival.

Trump visited one of the states with high rates, Arizona, earlier this week.

Trump tweets while the country burns.

Other countries with major and growing Covid problems are Brazil, Peru, India, Russia and Mexico (which may have contracted the problem from neighbouring USA).

The pandemic is going to remain a big problem for some time to come.

 

Covid cases – 3 million worldwide, 1 million in USA

The number of Covid-19 cases has now passed 3 million, and US cases have now just passed 1 million, just under a third of the world total.

Note that this is just the number of confirmed cases, there will have been many more infections that haven’t been detected or included.

Total deaths are now 211,065.

Both may be levelling off but it is hard to be sure as different regions grow as others improve. There is also a risk of further regional waves, especially as lockdown restrictions are lifted.

Reuters: More U.S. states ease restrictions

Georgia on Monday allowed residents to dine at restaurants for the first time in a month, as more U.S. states began easing restrictions where the coronavirus outbreak has taken a relatively light toll.

Alaska, Oklahoma and South Carolina, along with Georgia, previously took such steps, after weeks of mandatory lockdowns that threw millions of Americans out of work.

President Donald Trump and some local officials had criticized Georgia Governor Brian Kemp for orders that enabled restaurants and theaters to join a list of businesses, such as hair and nail salons, barber shops and tattoo parlors, allowed to reopen last week, with social-distancing restrictions still in force.

Even so, some restaurant owners and managers in the state capital Atlanta said they would not reopen on Monday.

There will be a lot of observation and analysis of places that ease restrictions to see whether the virus keeps tracking down or comes back again, and also to see how quickly business picks up.

Italy has outlined plans to ease restrictions from 4 May as it has recorded its lowest daily death toll in about 6 weeks.

BBC: Boris Johnson says this is moment of maximum risk

Speaking outside No 10 for the first time since recovering from the virus, Mr Johnson said “we are now beginning to turn the tide” on the disease.

He said lockdown would not be relaxed too soon and details on any changes will be set out over the “coming days”.

BBC:  Coronavirus ‘currently eliminated’ in New Zealand

New Zealand says it has stopped community transmission of Covid-19, effectively eliminating the virus.

With new cases in single figures for several days – one on Sunday – Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said the virus was “currently” eliminated.

But officials have warned against complacency, saying it does not mean a total end to new coronavirus cases.

ABC Australia: How Australians feel about the coronavirus crisis and Scott Morrison’s response

The coronavirus pandemic has made Australians more anxious, more confused — and a lot more bored, a new survey suggests.

The COVID-19 Monitor, a new research project from Vox Pop Labs in partnership with the ABC, takes us inside the homes of Australians to reveal how they’re really feeling as they live in self-imposed exile. It finds:

  • The number of Australians reporting poor mental health has more than doubled compared to a month ago.
  • The number frequently feeling despair has more than tripled.
  • Those frequently feeling confusion is up more than five times.
  • On a more positive note, the number of Australians frequently feeling a sense of solidarity has also jumped.

Doing enough to protect from the health risk:

  • Agree 85%
  • Disagree 14%

Doing enough to protect from economic risk:

  • Agree 75%
  • Disagree 21%

New Zealand has taken similar measures to Australia, with a slightly more restrictive lockdown but with more severe policing of breaches of social distancing rules.

Meanwhile Donald Trump has reveresed his sudden aversion with press conferences, returning to the podium to make profound statements:

“There has been so much unnecessary death in this country. It could’ve been stopped and it could’ve been stopped short, but somebody a long time ago, it seems, decided not to do it that way and the whole world is suffering because of it.”

He didn’t suggest who it was, but he’s probably looking hard for a Chinese journalist with links to the Democratic Party.

Further on in his news conference he does get more specific saying his administration has launched “very serious investigations” into China’s handling of Covid-19:

President Trump says his administration has launched “very serious investigations” into China’s response to the novel coronavirus.

“And we are not happy with China, we are not happy with that whole situation, because we believe it could have been stopped at the source. It could have been stopped quickly and it wouldn’t have spread all over the world.”

Every virus could be stopped at the source, if the virus and the source could be identified before it spread.

“Nobody except one country can be held accountable for what happened”.

“Nobody’s blaming anybody here, we’re looking at a group of people that should’ve stopped it at the source.”

The US will never forget those who were “sacrificed for a reason of incompetence or something else other than incompetence”.

“They could’ve protected the whole world – not just us – the whole world”.

I wonder if Trump doesn’t want to be seen as being in any way responsible for what happened in the US.


Update

Both the increase in case numbers (69,746) and increase in deaths(4,532) on Monday (GMT) are down. While it could be a temporary post-weekend blip it could also be an encouraging sign that the worst is over, for now at least.

Covid-19 cases recorded worldwide passes 2 million

The total number of recorded Covid-19 cases worldwide has just ticked over the 2 million mark.

  • Total cases: 2,000,734
  • Total deaths: 126,775
  • Total recovered: 484,781
  • Active cases: 1,389,177
  • Serious/critical: 51,603

 

 

That’s at 7:20 am Wednesday GMT so most countries haven’t updated for the day.

There are likely to be many more undetected or uncounted cases around the world.

Australia and new Zealand with today’s updated totals:

Note that both Australia and New Zealand have more recovered cases than active cases, which contrasts with the world ratio of 3 times as many active cases than recovered cases.

The USA in particular has a bad recovered ratio 549,362 active to 38,320 recovered.

From https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Covid-19 cases, tests and deaths (per million)

Total Covid-19 cases, tests and deaths to date ordered by deaths per million of population
As at 9 April 2020 8pm GMT
– note that these totals are changing quickly

Total Tot Cases/ Total Tests/ Total Deaths/
Country Cases 1M pop Tests 1M pop Deaths 1M pop
World 1,582,135 203 94,573 12.1
San Marino 308 9,077 722 21,278 34 1,002
Spain 152,446 3,261 355,000 7,593 15,238 326
Andorra 583 7,545 1,673 21,653 25 324
Italy 143,626 2,375 853,369 14,114 18,279 302
Belgium 24,983 2,156 84,248 7,269 2,523 218
France 117,749 1,804 224,254 3,436 12,210 187
Netherlands 21,762 1,270 101,534 5,926 2,396 140
Sint Maarten 43 1,003 112 2,612 6 140
UK 65,077 959 298,169 4,392 7,978 118
Switzerland 24,046 2,778 178,500 20,625 948 110
Luxembourg 3,115 4,976 27,521 43,965 52 83
Sweden 9,141 905 54,700 5,416 793 79
Ireland 6,574 1,331 53,000 10,734 263 53
Saint Martin 32 828 2 52
USA 455,454 1,376 2,309,686 6,978 16,114 49
Iran 66,220 788 231,393 2,755 4,110 49
Bermuda 39 626 315 5,058 3 48
Channel Islands 361 2,076 1,157 6,655 8 46
Denmark 5,635 973 64,002 11,050 237 41
Portugal 13,956 1,369 140,368 13,766 409 40
Austria 13,237 1,470 126,287 14,022 295 33
Germany 115,523 1,379 1,317,887 15,730 2,451 29
Liechtenstein 78 2,046 900 23,605 1 26
Turks and Caicos 8 207 61 1,576 1 26
Monaco 84 2,141 1 25
Slovenia 1,124 541 31,813 15,303 43 21
Norway 6,160 1,136 121,034 22,326 108 20
Guadeloupe 141 352 8 20
Antigua and Barbuda 19 194 40 408 2 20
Iceland 1,648 4,829 32,663 95,718 6 18
Estonia 1,207 910 26,416 19,914 24 18
Bahamas 40 102 7 18
Martinique 154 410 6 16
Ecuador 4,965 281 19,102 1,083 272 15
Panama 2,528 586 11,776 2,729 63 15
Cayman Islands 45 685 479 7,288 1 15
North Macedonia 663 318 6,571 3,154 30 14
Canada 20,690 548 370,315 9,812 503 13
Romania 5,202 270 51,802 2,693 248 13
Isle of Man 190 2,234 1,879 22,097 1 12
Turkey 42,282 501 276,338 3,277 908 11
Dominican Republic 2,349 217 7,151 659 118 11
Bosnia and Herzegovina 858 262 6,911 2,106 35 11
Israel 9,968 1,152 117,339 13,557 86 10
Czechia 5,467 511 106,845 9,977 112 10
Barbados 63 219 655 2,279 3 10
Serbia 2,867 328 12,347 1,413 66 8
Finland 2,605 470 39,000 7,039 42 8
Greece 1,955 188 33,634 3,227 87 8
Cyprus 564 467 14,273 11,822 10 8
Albania 409 142 3,223 1,120 23 8
Guyana 37 47 145 184 6 8
Moldova 1,289 320 5,108 1,266 29 7
Hungary 980 101 27,826 2,880 66 7
Mayotte 184 674 1,100 4,032 2 7
Lithuania 955 351 32,809 12,052 16 6
Mauritius 314 247 6,730 5,292 7 6
Trinidad and Tobago 109 78 987 705 8 6
Curaçao 14 85 1 6
Poland 5,575 147 107,597 2,843 174 5
Algeria 1,666 38 3,359 77 235 5
Croatia 1,407 343 13,680 3,332 20 5
Malta 337 763 13,732 31,100 2 5
Brazil 16,474 78 63,000 296 839 4
S. Korea 10,423 203 477,304 9,310 204 4
Peru 4,342 132 39,599 1,201 138 4
Chile 5,972 312 68,353 3,576 57 3
Morocco 1,374 37 6,116 166 97 3
Armenia 921 311 5,823 1,965 10 3
Bahrain 887 521 55,096 32,379 5 3
Bulgaria 618 89 15,899 2,288 24 3
Lebanon 582 85 12,524 1,835 19 3
Montenegro 252 401 2,329 3,708 2 3
Belize 9 23 364 915 1 3
China 81,865 57 3,335 2
Australia 6,104 239 330,134 12,946 51 2
Malaysia 4,228 131 63,367 1,958 67 2
Philippines 4,076 37 24,500 224 203 2
Qatar 2,376 825 43,144 14,975 6 2
Argentina 1,795 40 14,850 329 71 2
Belarus 1,486 157 49,000 5,186 16 2
Iraq 1,232 31 30,466 757 69 2
Tunisia 643 54 9,570 810 25 2
Latvia 589 312 25,458 13,497 3 2
Uruguay 456 131 6,175 1,778 7 2
Honduras 343 35 23 2
Bolivia 264 23 591 51 18 2
Brunei 135 309 8,985 20,538 1 2
Suriname 10 17 1 2
Cabo Verde 7 13 1 2
Indonesia 3,293 12 14,354 52 280 1
Saudi Arabia 3,287 94 44 1
Mexico 3,181 25 25,410 197 174 1
UAE 2,659 269 593,095 59,967 12 1
Colombia 2,054 40 33,575 660 55 1
Singapore 1,910 326 65,000 11,110 6 1
Ukraine 1,892 43 20,608 471 57 1
Egypt 1,560 15 25,000 244 103 1
Cuba 515 45 9,410 831 15 1
Burkina Faso 443 21 24 1
Jamaica 63 21 907 306 4 1
Azerbaijan 926 91 57,371 5,658 9 0.9
Congo 60 11 5 0.9
Georgia 218 55 3,271 820 3 0.8
El Salvador 103 16 5 0.8
Liberia 31 6 4 0.8
Japan 4,667 37 61,498 486 94 0.7
Jordan 372 36 17,000 1,666 7 0.7
Paraguay 124 17 2,039 286 5 0.7
Costa Rica 502 99 6,035 1,185 3 0.6
Oman 457 89 3 0.6
Kyrgyzstan 280 43 9,618 1,474 4 0.6
Russia 10,131 69 1,004,719 6,885 76 0.5
Thailand 2,423 35 71,860 1,030 32 0.5
Hong Kong 974 130 96,709 12,900 4 0.5
Niger 342 14 4,199 173 11 0.5
Kazakhstan 764 41 59,371 3,162 7 0.4
Cameroon 730 27 10 0.4
Slovakia 701 128 21,371 3,914 2 0.4
Afghanistan 484 12 15 0.4
Togo 73 9 1,747 211 3 0.4
Gabon 34 15 1 0.4
Botswana 13 6 1,154 491 1 0.4
Gambia 4 2 1 0.4
Pakistan 4,489 20 44,896 203 65 0.3
South Africa 1,934 33 63,776 1,075 18 0.3
Sri Lanka 190 9 3,248 152 7 0.3
Venezuela 171 6 139,282 4,898 9 0.3
Mali 74 4 7 0.3
India 6,725 5 177,584 129 226 0.2
New Zealand 1,239 257 51,165 10,610 1 0.2
Kuwait 910 213 1 0.2
Taiwan 380 16 42,315 1,777 5 0.2
Ghana 313 10 6 0.2
Palestine 263 52 16,068 3,150 1 0.2
DRC 180 2 18 0.2
Guatemala 95 5 1,134 63 3 0.2
Haiti 30 3 257 23 2 0.2
Zimbabwe 11 0.7 371 25 3 0.2
Mauritania 7 2 67 14 1 0.2
Nicaragua 7 1 1 0.2
Ivory Coast 384 15 3 0.1
Bangladesh 330 2 6,175 37 21 0.1
Senegal 250 15 2 0.1
Kenya 184 3 5,278 98 7 0.1
Libya 24 3 374 54 1 0.1
Syria 19 1 2 0.1
Uzbekistan 582 17 70,000 2,091 3 0.09
Benin 26 2 1 0.08
Myanmar 23 0.4 1,246 23 3 0.06
Angola 19 0.6 2 0.06
Somalia 12 0.8 1 0.06
Zambia 39 2 1,239 67 1 0.05
Sudan 15 0.3 2 0.05
Malawi 8 0.4 1 0.05
Nigeria 276 1 5,000 24 6 0.03
Ethiopia 56 0.5 2,790 24 2 0.02
Tanzania 25 0.4 1 0.02
Diamond Princess 712 11

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

New York currently has 360 deaths per million, and neighbouring New Jersey has 191 deaths per million (there’s a lot of people movement between the two states).

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Daily Covid update Thursday – 29 new cases, 35 recovered

Dr Ashley Bloomfield:

29 new cases (23 confirmed and 6 probable) down again – total 1239.

14 in hospital with 4 in ICU.

317 recovered (+35) which again is more than new cases – a very promising sign.

3,990 tests processed yesterday.

Bloomfield says he expects case numbers to stay low, with a few bumps up and down.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern:

New modelling to be released this afternoon – current controls have enabled us to meet the most optimisitc modelling scenarios,

She acknowledges they risks to many businesses and makes assuring comments “doing what we can to cushion the blow but this is going to be a marathon”.

She repeats that the best thing we can do for the economy is to keep the virus out.

From midnight tonight every New Zealander returning to the country will go into quarantine (or managed isolation) in a Government approved facility for a minimum of 12 days. A network of 18 hotels will be used for this.

Ardern defends not doing this earlier saying nearly 40,000 New Zealanders  have returned home since we closed the border to foreign nationals and it couldn’t have been done – that’s more than our total hotel capacity.

Contact tracing is now critical and a top priority.

Signposts so we can have a plan.

They will give detailed level 3 rules “for when it comes time to eventually change” to level 3. This will be published on 20 April, 2 days before the 4 week lockdown period is over (so it is based on as much data as possible) to give businesses a couple of days  to plan.

We need to give similar more detailed guidance on what life at Level 3 looks like, and we will do that next week. That will give us a window to iron out questions and issues, and make sure we’re as prepared as we can be when it comes time to move.

It is then my intention that on the 20th of April, two days before the lockdown is due to finish, Cabinet will make a decision on our next steps. That’s because we need to use the most up to date data that we have to make that decision.

That means, if we are ready to move to Alert Level 3, business we will have two days to implement arrangements.

Preparing for coming down to level 3 (with revised rules) but not a guarantee it will happen after 4 weeks.

Message to businesses – prepare for all possibilities.

Asked if there is an endpoint Ardern says now, no end date at this stage, “this will be a marathon”.

As at 9am, 9 April 2020
Total to date New in last 24 hours
Number of confirmed cases in New Zealand 992 23
Number of probable cases 247 6
Number of confirmed and probable cases 1,239 29
Number of cases in hospital 14 2
Number of recovered cases 317 35
Number of deaths 1

Waikato DHB says two nurses have tested positive for COVID-19. They worked in the same ward at Waikato Hospital and  have been stood down immediately on developing symptoms.

 

1 million confirmed Covid-19 cases worldwide

The number of confirmed cases of the Covid-19 coronavirus has just passed 1 million.

Note that this is confirmed and advised cases, there will be many more undetected cases around the world.

This is a rapid rise.

  • 11 February – 45,134
  • 5 March – 98,425
  • 19 March – 244,902
  • 25 March – 471,035
  • 2 April – 1,007,128

Recorded deaths are currently 51,704 but even this could be under-reported.

Italian deaths could be twice as high – study

A study revealing the hidden toll of coronavirus at the epicentre of Italy’s outbreak has revealed the real death toll could be double official figures.

A study by Bergamo newspaper L’Eco di Bergamo with the InTwig data analysis agency puts the number of virus deaths last month at 4,500, compared with the official toll of 2,060, in the province of 1.1 million people.

Mayors have warned that the official numbers fail to take into account the many people dying at home or in rest homes who have never been tested for the virus.

Under current policies, only those who arrive at hospitals manifesting strong symptoms are tested.

Official deaths in Italy are currently 13,915.

Daily update – more cases but not much change

75 more cases today and another 6 recovered, with a total of confirmed and probably cases now 589.

Summary

As at 9.00 am, 30 March 2020
Total to date New in last 24 hours
Number of confirmed cases in New Zealand 552 76
Number of probable cases 37 -1
Number of confirmed and probable cases 589 75
Number of cases in hospital 12
Number of recovered cases 63 6
Number of deaths 1

View full details of the confirmed cases.

View details of significant COVID-19 clusters.

Case numbers are still expected to keep rising over the next week or so but at this stage things seem to be reasonably under control.

Police Commissioner Mike Bush:

Says two staff have tested positive for Covid-19. They are at home and not been hospitalised.

Mike Bush says 4547 Kiwis have returned over the past three days; 94 of those people were symptomatic and are in quarantine.

1200 did not have a satisfactory self-isolation plan.

About 3200 did have a plan and are self isolating, and police will ensure they are complying with those restrictions.

Three people have been arrested for repeat offences of breaching the lockdown and one person is still in custody, Mike Bush says.

He says tourists should refrain from travelling around the country.
If they persistently breach rules, police will take action, Bush says.

The New Zealand Government is today launching a daily email newsletter to give people a new way to stay up-to-date with COVID-19 information.

The daily updates will include:

  • The latest COVID-19 news
  • Answers to frequently asked questions, eg advice for essential workers
  • The latest resources, including translations, posters, and social media images

Sign up to get the latest updates from Unite Against Covid-19(external link)


How easily it can spread.

The Waikato District Health Board has confirmed a cluster of Covid-19 cases in Matamata can be linked to a St Patrick’s Day celebration at a local bar. There are now 23 confirmed cases in the area and most have been identified as attending the event on 17 March at the Redoubt bar, or are directly linked to those who attended.

There was at least one bar open for St Patricks day and also student parties.

Bars were closed and parades cancelled in Ireland for St Patricks Day

More New Zealanders in their 20s have Covid-19 than any other age group, Ministry of Health figures show, and it’s likely because most cases are connected to overseas travel. Ministry of Health data about the first 500 cases of Covid-19 shows people of European ethnicity in their 20s are the most likely to test positive for the virus.

OE exposure.

The Auckland girl’s school Marist College has 47 confirmed and probable cases of Covid-19. It is the biggest cluster of infection being tracked by health authorities. The board chairperson Stephen Dallow says the confirmed cases include teachers, students and adults within the community.

That’s why protecting schools was important (managed very well at Logan Park in Dunedin).

How many people actually have Covid-19?

No one knows, but it’s certain that official counts will be under reporting actual cases. By how much?

“2.3% of Americans surveyed said they’ve been diagnosed with the coronavirus, a percentage that could translate to several million people”

The current official total in the US is 75,000 cases (and 1,070 deaths).

Official counts of cases of Covid-19 have been questioned around the world. The limited number of tests done and the narrow criteria for getting a test here in New Zealand naturally raises questions about the true numbers.

The only thing we can be certain of is that actual numbers are greater than official numbers, at least of cases (questions have also been raised about death counts in some countries).

Reuters: How many Americans have coronavirus? New Reuters poll might offer a hint

The official count of coronavirus infections in the United States sits at about 70,000 cases, but a chronic shortage of tests means only a fraction of the people infected are being counted. So how can we know how many Americans actually might have the disease?

A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted in the past several days could offer what one behavioral health expert called a “fascinating” hint of the possible numbers.

In the nationwide poll, 2.3% of Americans surveyed said they’ve been diagnosed with the coronavirus, a percentage that could translate to several million people.

Diagnosed by whom? That is likely to be various and of varying reliability.

Of course, it’s impossible to know if the answers are a result of misinformed self-diagnoses, untested professional diagnoses or test-confirmed infections. But Carnegie Mellon University professor Baruch Fischhoff, who studies risk perception and analysis, said that the poll results shouldn’t be viewed as merely a collective neurotic reaction to the pandemic.

Given the shortage of coronavirus test kits, it may well be a broadly accurate estimate of the extent of the infection across the United States, he said. “It may be the best available data,” he said.

A further 2.4% of those polled said they have been in close contact with someone who has tested positive.

And in an illustration of the degrees of separation with the deadly virus, a further 2.6% said they knew someone who has been in close contact with a person who has tested positive.

While accuracy of these results can be questioned, there is a rise from a similar poll that at least suggests significant under counting in official numbers.

The poll, which surveyed 4,428 adults between March 18 and 24, shows a dramatic increase in those saying they have tested positive for the virus from a similar poll conducted just a few days earlier.

In the Reuters/Ipsos poll of 1,115 Americans conducted March 16 and 17, about 1% said they were infected.

The second poll was just after the first, but was for a longer period and polled four times as many people.

Still, the poll results may fill some gaps in knowledge in the face of limited testing.

For example, Fischhoff said, on March 15, Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine estimated there were about 100,000 infections in his state, which represents about 1% of the state’s population, despite there only being a handful of confirmed cases at the time.

If these suggested infection rates are anywhere near reality there is one positive – the death rate per infected person and per population will be a lot lower.

But the obvious negative is that the virus may be far more widely established and spread in populations, including here in New Zealand.

One thing that needs to be remembered – until an effective vaccine becomes widely available Covid-19 will continue to spread probably everywhere, and more and more people will get it.

Apart from hoping a vaccine will come out in time we have to hope we don’t get it until the demand for health services settles back and treatments improve as they learn what works best to deal with the symptoms and avoid complications.

So for now I’m happy to be in isolation, and I am prepared for this being for closer to four months than four weeks (August has been mentioned as a time we may be getting on top of things by).