Colmar Brunton poll – October 2018

Colmar Brunton were polling for 1 News as the Jami-Lee Ross mess unfolded last week, so it is  snapshot of support that won’t give anything like a clear indication of ongoing effects on party support.

But it is what it is, at a volatile time.

  • Labour 45% (up from 42%)
  • National 43% (down from 45%)
  • Greens 7% (up from 6%)
  • NZ First 5% ( no change)
  • ACT 0% (down from 1%)
  • Maori Party 1% (no change)

This looks remarkably not bad for National considering the week from hell they have just been through – but it may be too soon to measure the full effect of all of this.

The poll was conducted from Monday to Friday (15-19 October 2018).

The last poll was taken from 28 July to 1 August 2018.

Since the election up until this poll Colmar Brunton had:

  • National 46%, 43%, 44%, 45%, 45%
  • Labour 39%, 48%, 43%, 43%, 42%
  • Greens 7%, 5%, 6%, 5%, 6%
  • NZ First 5%, 2.6%, 5%, 4.2%, 5%

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 42%
  • Simon Bridges 7%
  • Judith Collins 5%
  • Winston Peters 4%

Last poll details and polling history since the election.

Poll shows public support of police pursuits

Public opinion probably shouldn’t be a factor in deciding whether the police pursue fleeing drivers or not, but a poll shows large support for the police.

“Do you think police pursuits in New Zealand should be banned?”

  • Yes – 12%
  • No – 82%

1 News: Most Kiwis want police to continue chasing fleeing drivers – 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll

A record 13 people were killed in police pursuits last year, with at least eight deaths so far this year.

Police Minister Stuart Nash said he thinks pursuits are “a pragmatic approach to policing”.

“When 59 per cent of pursuits are abandoned I do think that is the police taking a very responsible attitude towards this”.

National’s police spokesperson Chris Bishop said, “Obviously your heart goes out to them and their families, but you do have to send a message.”

But critics say the risk of pursuits outweighs the reason and far too many people are being killed.

The number of police pursuits have shot up by 64 per cent in the last six years, and the Independent Police Conduct Authority is reviewing current policy, despite there having been six reviews and 12 new versions of the policy in recent years.

I don’t think that pursuits should be banned altogether, but it is difficult getting the balance right between apprehending criminals or suspected offenders and public safety.

Police have to make quick decisions on whether to pursue or not, trying to assess the possible reaction of the driver and the risks involved.

There have been many re-examinations of police pursuit policy.

Policy review from 2010:New Zealand Police Pursuits Policy Review (PDF, 588KB)

There is a lot of information in response to an OIA here: Police pursuit policy and statistics

Stuff (March 2018) – Police chases: Fleeing drivers must ‘take more responsibility’, police say

A car fleeing police on Sunday morning crashed head-on into an oncoming vehicle near Nelson, leaving both occupants of the fleeing vehicle and the sole occupant of another car – uninvolved in the chase – dead.

Such incidents have increased in number from fewer than 2500 a year in 2012 to 3797 in 2017, according to a police report. The number of deaths during fleeing driver events have increased from two in 2014 to 10 (from nine events) in 2017.

Police assistant commissioner for road policing Sandra Venables said fleeing drivers needed to take more responsibility.

“He or she has to take more responsibility and make better decisions. We would hope people would just realise it’s better to stop and talk to the police officer,” she said.

“We [police] have to strike a balance between the responsibility to protect life and the duty to enforce the law, but it’s really up to the driver in these pursuits.”

Police never took pursuits with fleeing drivers lightly, Venables said.

“It’s one of those quick judgement calls police make every day to keep the public safe and uphold the law,” she said.

“On a number of occasions in the pursuits, we’ve found many of them can be stolen vehicles . . . there’s many reasons, and its always a constant balancing act.”

A difficult balancing act for the police.

 

1 News Colmar Brunton poll

Polls are relatively rare these days. here’s the latest from Colmar Brunton (1 News):

  • National 45% (no change)
  • Labour 42% (down 1)
  • Greens 6% (up 1)
  • NZ First 5% (up 1)
  • ACT 1% (no change)
  • Maori party 1% (no change)

Refuse too answer 4%, undecided 12%.

So not much movement there. National still maintaining a small lead over Labour, so the Ardern/baby effect and the Bridges effect seem to be making little difference for now.

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 40% (down 1)
  • Simon Bridges 10% (down 2)
  • Winston Peters 5% (up 1)

Bridges still failing to impress, that’s no surprise.

No significant lift for NZ First despite Peters getting a lot more exposure.

Field work (polling) 28 July – 1 August.

Colmar Brunton poll – little movement

A day after the Newshub/Reid Research poll another poll with largely similar results, this one from 1 News/Colmar Brunton:

  • National 45% (up 1)
  • Labour 43% (no change)
  • Greens 5% (down 1)
  • NZ First 4.2% (down 0.8)
  • Maori Party 0.9% (down 0.3)

Nothing much new there. The changes are insignificant.

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 41% (up 1)
  • Simon Bridges 12% (up 2)
  • Winston Peters 4% (down 1)
  • Judith Collins 2% (no change)

So no boost (or loss) for Labour after the budget, and National support remains high despite a lack of traction for Bridges.

A pointless poll on pregnancy and politics

1 News got Colmar Brunton to do a pointless poll on Jacindas Ardern’s performance as PM while being a mother. It is likely to be a month or two before she becomes a mother, so how does anyone know?

1 News: Becoming a mum won’t have an effect on Jacinda Ardern’s performance as PM – 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll

Political commentator Jennifer Lees-Marshment says in an ideal world it would not be a topic for discussion.

Media commissioning polls to create populist ‘news’ is not ideal either, but it has become normal click-bait creating practice.

Experts say that the Prime Minister is a role model for working women.

Global Women board member Felicity Evans says “seeing her adequately and brilliantly doing her job whilst being a mum and being pregnant. It’s perfect.”

That sounds like just one ‘expert’. Using terms like ‘brilliantly ‘ and ‘perfectly’ doesn’t sound like objective expert assessment.

In response to that Ms Ardern says, “I’m no superwoman and I wouldn’t want to give that impression.”

“The fact that I am able to do what I’m doing and be a mother at the same time is because I have a huge amount of support around me.”

Support is very important, and it will be particularly important once Ardern has her baby. It will still be a big challenge for her – she may take it in her political stride, but there is no way of knowing how it will go until it happens.

By then 1 News will have probably moved on the more important polls, like what the baby’s name should be.

Colmar Brunton poll – little change

Polls have been scarce lately. 1 news have their second poll of the year. It doesn’t show anything drastic – a bit of movement from Labour to their Government partners.

  • National 44% (up 1)
  • Labour 43% (down 5)
  • Greens 6% (up 1)
  • NZ First 5% (up 2)
  • Maori Party 1%

So Labour have eased back a bit after a difficult period, and National have held up despite the exit of Bill English and Steven Joyce – it is the first poll since Simon Bridges took over leadership.

Greens and NZ First have both improved marginally (at Labour’s expense).

  • Refuse to answer 4%
  • Undecided 8% (down 1)

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 37% (down 4)
  • Simon Bridges 10% (up 9)
  • Winston Peters 5% (up 1)

The gloss seems to have worn off Ardern a bit. It’s early for Bridges, he will still hardly be known by most of the electorate.

Peters doesn’t seem to be liked outside NZ First support.

Poll conducted 7-11 April 2018.

What try hard bollocks.

National are likely to be pleased a change of leadership has barely changed their support.

 

Labour jump in Colmar poll

Labour have jumped up to 48% in the latest 1 News/Colmar Brunton poll. National has slipped a bit with Greens and NZ First struggling.

  • Labour 48% (up 9)
  • National 43% (down 3)
  • Greens 5% (down 2)
  • NZ First 3% (down 2)
  • Maori Party 1%
  • TOP 1%

That will shake up the parties and pundits. It’s not a big drop for National but they will be worried about a downward direction with English stepping down, but it’s a major bump for Labour, at the expense of their partner parties in Government.

Ardern is up 4 to 41% in preferred Prime Minister, Bill English dropped but is irrelevant now in polls.

Q+A – new poll plus Colmar Brunton interview

Q+A this morning will have the first Colmar brunton polls results since the election, plus an interview on Colmar’ Brunton’s changed methodology (which may make poll comparisons difficult):

We’ll have the results of our Colmar Brunton political poll – which political party will get an early Christmas present?

Jessica Mutch will also interview Jason Shoebridge – the CEO of Kantar Insights, the parent company of Colmar Brunton. He’ll talk about why Colmar Brunton has changed its methodology for its TVNZ political polling.

Colmar Brunton are now polling 50% mobile phones.

The poll with have some curiosity value.

  • National 46% (election 44.4%)
  • Labour 39% (election 36.9%)
  • NZ First 5% (election 7.2%)
  • Greens 7% (election 6.3%)
  • TOP 1% (election 2.4%)
  • Maori Party 1% (election 1.2%)
  • ACT NR (election 0.5%)

So an unusual situation where the leading party in Government remains the second most popular party by a clear margin.

NZ First should be concerned to see their support slipping.

They are rounded to the nearest % (more detailed results are usually published a few days later), hence no result for ACT here.

Is New Zealand heading in the right direction?

  • Right direction 51%
  • Wrong direction 26%
  • Don’t know 27%

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 37%
  • Bill English 28%
  • Winston Peters 5%

Not surprising to see Ardern ahead there. She was already doing well, and has been getting more media coverage.

Blog responses to CB poll

It’s interesting to see blog responses to polls. With some it depends very much on the results.

Last night a Colmar Brunton poll showed a significant swing for National and against Labour.

Whale Oil tends to be slow reacting to news, especially news they don’t like. So far they have only one post on the poll, and it’s bizarre – Face of the Day:

Meet Gary Morgan.  The Man At The Top at Roy Morgan Research.  He may be, in the end, the most powerful influencer of how this election turned out.

That on it’s own is an odd claim.

Well, I think he should hide in his office for the day.  Even though I have no doubt there has not been anything shady going on, the end result is that the widely swinging poll, and specifically its timing, is hugely damaging to the Labour party.

That has to be the shoddiest bit of polling yet.   It wouldn’t surprise me if the left will accuse Roy Morgan of deliberately screwing with the election in favour of National.

The shoddiness is in the post.

That’s last night’s Colmar Brunton poll. Roy Morgan has nothing to do with it.

And it is dirty and devious to use ‘the left’ to imply a deliberately screwed poll.

Has ‘Whaleoil Staff’ really got confused between Roy Morgan and Colmar Brunton? Or is it deliberate confusion to attack the pollsters and the poll result?

Meanwhile The Standard is usually very quick to have posts on Labour friendly polls, but as is common last night’s poll has not appeared anywhere apart from in last night’s Daily Review 20/09/2017.

Instead Anthony Robins continues his posts attacking National:

Is NZ doomed to lying politics now?

Bill English and the Nats are now running firmly on a platform of lies – Gower calls them on this for a second time this week. Should the political left get down in the gutter too? Is NZ doomed to lying politics now?

Sounds defeatist.

Nats “discovered poverty last week” – and will forget it just as quickly

Ardern’s jab that English “discovered poverty last week” was the line of the debate. After the election National will forget it again just as quickly, if the record of the last nine years is anything to go by. Do you want to vote for that?

Why do Labour supporters put so much effort into attacking National at The Standard when they have a largely left wing audience.

The Standard (resident trolls and moderators) actively try to drive away anyone judged to be a National supporter. Even those in the centre, or non-aligned, or deemed to be not left enough get attacked and banned.

So they are hardly going to swing many votes away from National by attacking them.

And there is a stark contrast between Jacinda Ardern’s ‘relentlessly positive’ and The Standard’s ‘relentlessly negative’.

Note that there are some positive Green posts at The Standard these days but Green supporters are prominent in their negative attacks.

1 News Colmar Brunton pre-election poll

The last 1 News Colmar Brunton poll before the election:

  • National 46% (last week 40%, previous 39%)
  • Labour 37% (last week 44%, previous 43%)
  • Greens 8% (last week 7%, previous 5%)
  • NZ First 5%  (last week 6%, previous 9%)
  • TOP 2.0% rounded (last week 2.0%, previous 1.9%)
  • Maori Party 1% rounded (last week 1.1%, previous 2.0%)
  • ACT 0.3% (last week 0.6%, previous 0.1%)

Don’t know 7%, Refused 6% (+1)

Momentum has swung back to National at the right time of the campaign for them, and the wrong time for Labour, who are shedding support all round.

Greens will be pleased to by lifting above the danger zone, but that will be at Labour’s expense.

NZ First continue to slip and are now in real danger of missing the threshold cut.

If NZ First survive then they may be in a deciding position. However if the miss the threshold and Peters loses Northland then National could rule again perhaps with ACT and the Maori Party in support.

Polling 16-19 September
Last week’s 9-13 September.
Previous polling period was 2-6 September.

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Bill English 37% (up from 32%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 31% (down from 34%)
  • Winston Peters 6% (5%)

Detailed results up to last week: http://www.colmarbrunton.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/Prelim_1-News-Colmar-Brunton-Poll-report-9-13-Sep.pdf