Blog responses to CB poll

It’s interesting to see blog responses to polls. With some it depends very much on the results.

Last night a Colmar Brunton poll showed a significant swing for National and against Labour.

Whale Oil tends to be slow reacting to news, especially news they don’t like. So far they have only one post on the poll, and it’s bizarre – Face of the Day:

Meet Gary Morgan.  The Man At The Top at Roy Morgan Research.  He may be, in the end, the most powerful influencer of how this election turned out.

That on it’s own is an odd claim.

Well, I think he should hide in his office for the day.  Even though I have no doubt there has not been anything shady going on, the end result is that the widely swinging poll, and specifically its timing, is hugely damaging to the Labour party.

That has to be the shoddiest bit of polling yet.   It wouldn’t surprise me if the left will accuse Roy Morgan of deliberately screwing with the election in favour of National.

The shoddiness is in the post.

That’s last night’s Colmar Brunton poll. Roy Morgan has nothing to do with it.

And it is dirty and devious to use ‘the left’ to imply a deliberately screwed poll.

Has ‘Whaleoil Staff’ really got confused between Roy Morgan and Colmar Brunton? Or is it deliberate confusion to attack the pollsters and the poll result?

Meanwhile The Standard is usually very quick to have posts on Labour friendly polls, but as is common last night’s poll has not appeared anywhere apart from in last night’s Daily Review 20/09/2017.

Instead Anthony Robins continues his posts attacking National:

Is NZ doomed to lying politics now?

Bill English and the Nats are now running firmly on a platform of lies – Gower calls them on this for a second time this week. Should the political left get down in the gutter too? Is NZ doomed to lying politics now?

Sounds defeatist.

Nats “discovered poverty last week” – and will forget it just as quickly

Ardern’s jab that English “discovered poverty last week” was the line of the debate. After the election National will forget it again just as quickly, if the record of the last nine years is anything to go by. Do you want to vote for that?

Why do Labour supporters put so much effort into attacking National at The Standard when they have a largely left wing audience.

The Standard (resident trolls and moderators) actively try to drive away anyone judged to be a National supporter. Even those in the centre, or non-aligned, or deemed to be not left enough get attacked and banned.

So they are hardly going to swing many votes away from National by attacking them.

And there is a stark contrast between Jacinda Ardern’s ‘relentlessly positive’ and The Standard’s ‘relentlessly negative’.

Note that there are some positive Green posts at The Standard these days but Green supporters are prominent in their negative attacks.

1 News Colmar Brunton pre-election poll

The last 1 News Colmar Brunton poll before the election:

  • National 46% (last week 40%, previous 39%)
  • Labour 37% (last week 44%, previous 43%)
  • Greens 8% (last week 7%, previous 5%)
  • NZ First 5%  (last week 6%, previous 9%)
  • TOP 2.0% rounded (last week 2.0%, previous 1.9%)
  • Maori Party 1% rounded (last week 1.1%, previous 2.0%)
  • ACT 0.3% (last week 0.6%, previous 0.1%)

Don’t know 7%, Refused 6% (+1)

Momentum has swung back to National at the right time of the campaign for them, and the wrong time for Labour, who are shedding support all round.

Greens will be pleased to by lifting above the danger zone, but that will be at Labour’s expense.

NZ First continue to slip and are now in real danger of missing the threshold cut.

If NZ First survive then they may be in a deciding position. However if the miss the threshold and Peters loses Northland then National could rule again perhaps with ACT and the Maori Party in support.

Polling 16-19 September
Last week’s 9-13 September.
Previous polling period was 2-6 September.

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Bill English 37% (up from 32%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 31% (down from 34%)
  • Winston Peters 6% (5%)

Detailed results up to last week: http://www.colmarbrunton.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/Prelim_1-News-Colmar-Brunton-Poll-report-9-13-Sep.pdf

 

 

 

Recent polls – a roundabout indication in a campaign of swings

Polls have been giving quite a range of results over the last month. There have been significant movements in support, and there has seemed to be discrepancies between some of the results, but this has been confused by different polling periods. Different polling methods are also being used.

Poll-of polls are of limited use and could be misleading because of:

  • the swings and apparent volatility of the polls
  • averaging a few polls conducted over different dates is statistically dubious

I think we have to just see what we can in the polls and understand they are changing, they are subject to margins of error and polling errors, and they cannot predict a future election result.

Here are the last six polls from the polling companies with established records.

PollsElection2017

This suggests:

  • The last Reid Research result for National is out of step with the others
  • Labour support has been bouncing around
  • NZ First support has been bouncing around
  • The Roy Morgan result for Greens looks out of step but Greens could have recovered

Note that since these polls were taken:

  • Labour did their u-turn on tax
  • Winston Peters had his bizarre interview with Guyon Espiner
  • James Shaw had a very good interview with Guyon Espiner
  • The news broke about the Saudi sheep saga that may affect National

I think there may still be a lot of uncertainty amongst swing voters.

My observations and possibilities from now:

  • The ‘mood for change’ may win the election for Labour with possible options of either Greens or NZ First in coalition
  • There may be a move back to the known, that is, to National – or conversely voters may give up on National
  • It looks unlikely National will have a majority on their own (no party has had one since MMP)
  • Both the Greens and NZ First look vulnerable and are at risk of missing the threshold
  • There is an obvious tension between Labour and Green support due to Labour leaning voters wanting to rescue the Greens but also wanting to give Labour as strong a mandate as possible
  • The smaller parties have been left on the sidelines

I think this election is very open still, and could easily be decided by whichever way things swing on election day.

A large number of people have been advance voting – 229,259 up to Thursday and likely to be close to 300,000 up to Friday. This is due to more publicity about advance voting, more polling places, polling in public places, and enthusiasm of people who have already made up their minds.

However undecided voters are likely to leave it late to decide and to vote. Many will make their decision on election day.

Also significant will be whether there is a swing to deciding and voting, or a swing to giving up trying and not voting.

So what has happened in the last few days and what happens next week could make a significant impact on the outcome.

Polls are useful indicators for those of us who are swing voters, especially so for tactical voters.

In current day politics polls are only approximate indicators. They are subject to late changes, as is evident from the polls over the last month here, and from elections elsewhere like in the US and UK.

We the voters can glean some useful information from the polls, but we should be very sceptical about what media headlines and pundits say about what they mean.

We should make up our own minds about what the polls mean about our vote.

And ultimately we will make up our own minds about how we vote, or if we vote. Then the polls will mean absolutely nothing apart from providing fodder for a few media stories after the election.

1 News/Colmar Brunton poll

The latest 1 News/Colmar Brunton poll:

  • Labour 44% (last week 43%, previous 43%)
  • National 40% (last week 39%, previous 41%)
  • Greens 7% (last week 5%, previous 5%)
  • NZ First 6%  (last week 9%, previous 8%)
  • TOP 2.0% rounded (last week 1.9%, previous 0.9%)
  • Maori Party 1.1% rounded (last week 2.0%, previous 0.5%)
  • ACT 0.6% (last week 0.1%, previous 0.3%)

The political pendulum has swung again – but this is fairly consistent with last week’s poll.

Greens will be happy to by recovering, but NZ First are trending down.

Labour + Greens would make a majority together, alternately Labour + NZ First. That puts Labour in a strong position.

Polling 9-13 September.
Last week’s polling period was 2-6 September.
The previous polling period was 26-30 August.

However there is talk that one or possibly two other polls have National slightly ahead. Labour’s tax u-turn today suggests they have concerns about their own polling.

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 34% (down from 35%)
  • Bill English 32 (up from 31%)
  • Winston Peters 5% (no change)

The full report from last week’s poll (they delay posting this by a couple of days).

Undecideds tonight were 14% – up 4pts.

Still a lot of volatility, so the the election is still up for grabs.

1 News Colmar Brunton – Labour still lead

The latest 1 News/Colmar Brunton poll:

  • Labour 43% (no change from 43%)
  • National 39% (down from 41%)
  • NZ First 9%  (up from 8%)
  • Greens 5% (no change)
  • TOP 1.9% (up from 0.9%)
  • Maori Party 2% rounded
  • ACT 0.1% (down from 0.3%)

So Labour have held on to their lead, and National have slipped a bit more (the Joyce effect?).

NZ First are steady-ish, and so are the Greens but still right on the threshold.

This poll was done between Saturday 2 September and Wednesday 6 September.

The last poll (in brackets) was conducted 26-30 August:

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 35% (up from 34%)
  • Bill English 31 (down from 33%)
  • Winston Peters 5% (up from 4%)

The full report from the last poll (they delay posting this by a couple of days).

1 News/Colmar Brunton – Labour lead

The latest 1 News/Colmar Brunton poll:

  • Labour 43%
  • National 41%
  • NZ First 8%
  • Greens 5%
  • TOP  1%
  • Maori Party 1%

ColmarBrunton20170831

This is a dramatic turnaround for Labour. It will be a very interesting election.

Colmar Brunton polls for Labour this year: 30, 30, 30, 27, 24, 37, 42

Conducted Saturday 26 to Wednesday 30 August.

  • Jacinda Ardern 34%)
  • Bill English 33%
  • Winston Peters 4%

Recent polls for the Greens

The big dip in Green support shown in the Colmar Brunton poll published on Thursday caused consternation amongst Greens, with the usual claims of it being a bogus poll, or an outlier.

Some thought that it was proven inaccurate by the Roy Morgan poll published yesterday (Friday), but they failed to notice that while published after Colmar Brunton’s poll just about all of the RM polling was done before CB.

Both those pollsters plus Reid Research have show Green dives this month. Recent polls for the Greens:

  • RR 15 June: 12.5%
  • CB 1-5 July: 11%
  • RM 26 Jun-9 Jul: 13.5%
  • CB 22-27 July: 15%
  • RR 20-28 July: 13%
  • RR 2-8 August: 8.3%
  • RM 31 Jul-13 Aug: 9%
  • CB 12-16 August: 4.3%

All three polls show a significant dip in Green support in August, at the same time as Metiria Turei’s story as a beneficiary unravelled and disunity in the party became apparent.

RNZ’s last 4 poll average chart:

From Ardern turns the worm, but Green losses threaten left

The CB poll this week is the only one to be done after the resignations of Turei as co-leader and the withdrawal from the list of two Green MPs. We can’t be sure whether it was an accurate snapshot of Green support this week, or if it is an outlier.

It could be rock bottom for the Greens, as James Shaw claims, they and could bounce back by the time we get another poll.

Newshub (Reid Research) may be next to publish another poll, that would be useful to get an idea of how bad things are for the Greens.

Greens down, but not out yet

It has been a disastrous month for the Green Party. Metiria Turei’s ‘mission’ against poverty got out of control. Two Green MPs withdrew from the party list, and Turei followed suit so is very likely to leave Parliament after the election, her slim chances relying onb the Te Tai Tonga electorate.

In the aftermath the polls tell a grim story. The Greens initially surged to a record 15% in both Colmar Brunton and Reid Research polls (conducted in July), but the latest polls have dived.

Last week it was reported that UMR had the Greens down to 8%, and the Reid Research poll conducted from 2-8 August (during the Green implosion) had them down to 8.3%.

Yesterday a Colmar Brunton poll (conducted 12-16 August) had the Greens below the threshold on 4.3% – this puts them at real risk of not getting back into Parliament.

1 News: Watch: James Shaw appeals to voters after Greens’ ‘momentary lapse of reason’

“Tonight’s TVNZ poll, which shows the Greens on a really low base, is clearly not great news,” Ms Shaw said, speaking directly to a camera from a seat in his office.

That’s a different base to the one he last week claimed they would bounce back to.

“And what it shows me is that we have a lot of work to do over the course of the next five weeks to rebuild the trust and credibility with all of those New Zealanders who have supported us in the past”.

“I know that the last couple of weeks have been messy. And if there’s one rule in politics it’s that New Zealand voters hate it when political parties engage in kind of messy activity and all of that kind of stuff.”

“So I know that and I’m hoping that our track record over the last 17 years in Parliament, and the years before we even got into Parliament, will show that what happened over the course of the last few weeks was, shall we say, a momentary lapse of reason.

“And actually we are still going strong, we are the same Green Party that we’ve always been, with the same vision the same values.”

Sadly that’s not true. Kennedy Graham and David Clendon quit because they couldn’t stand on the vision and values the party lurched to following Turei’s mission, and Turei, MP for fifteen years and co-leader for the last eight years.

The Greens now standing for this election are quite different.

Mr Shaw appealed to viewers to “help us out, talk to your friends and stand with us over the course of the next five weeks”.

He said “a strong Green heart at the next progressive government is absolutely vital”

Shaw gave his Adjournment Debate speech in Parliament yesterday, in front of very subdued looking Green MPs:

ShawAdjournmentdebate

That’s Graham and Clendon sitting on their own separated from rest of the Green MPs, and Turei is absent. The Green heart looks like it is on life support.

Video of Shaw’s speech:

He referred to Graham and Clendon well into his speech:

And speaking of hard work and sacrifice, thank you so much to the Green Party caucus, who are leaving this year…

Shaw paused and turned towards Graham and Clendon in isolation up the back.

…and finally, and finally I want to acknowledge Metiria.

Child poverty was not an issue that most Parliamentarians in New Zealand wanted to talk about. You made it an issue that every politician has to talk about.

You stood in this chamber and you spoke up for those who could not speak for themselves.

A relatively brief mention.

And the next government of New Zealand will have an end to poverty, the restoration of our rivers,  and leadership on climate change, at the top of it’s order paper.

Thank you Mr Speaker. I’ll see you in six weeks.

The applause that followed was as if it followed a speech at a wake.

Greens have suffered serious and largely self inflicted wounds. The latest poll is either an ominous sign of a mortally wounded party, or it could prompt a slight revival if enough voters decide to rescue them this election.

It would be a real shame to see the Greens disappear from Parliament, but they took a major risk and fell flat on their faces. It will be difficult for them to look confident during the campaign.

Last night on Reddit: Ask Us Anything: Greens Co-leader James Shaw and MPs Mojo Mathers, Jan Logie, and Gareth Hughes

1 News/Colmar Brunton – Greens 4%

The latest 1 News/Colmar Brunton poll:

  • National 44% (down from 47)
  • Labour 37% (up from 24)
  • Greens 4% (down from 15)
  • NZ First 10% (down from 11)
  • Opportunities Party  2% (no change)
  • Maori Party 2% (up from 1)

So National sort of hanging on, Labour way up and Greens way way down into threshold territory.

This poll was conducted 12-16 August so after the Green crisis,

The last poll was taken 22-27 July 2017, before Ardern took over and before Turei stepped down.

  • Don’t know 9%
  • Refused 4% (down from 11)

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Bill English 30% (up from 28)
  • Jacinda Ardern 30% (up from 6)
  • Winston Peters 5% (down from 10)
  • Andrew who?

These are rounded results, full results usually take a few days to become available.

 

Poll: 13% want Maori seats scrapped ASAP

A 1 News Colmar Brunton poll asked what New Zealander’s views on the Maori seats were.

  • They should be kept: 55%
  • They should be abolished some time in the future: 23%
  • They should be abolished as soon as possible: 13%

So there is not much immediate pressure to abolish the Maori seats.

1 News: Majority of New Zealanders want to retain the Maori seats

The poll tested opinion after Winston Peters announced three weeks ago that a referendum on the Maori seats was a bottom line for New Zealand First support after the election.

Maori Party co leader Te Ururoa Flavell says…

…he’s “pretty buoyed” by those results.

“I think that endorses the notion that New Zealanders see some value in those seats, number one, and rejects the notion that has been promulgated by Mr Peters”.

Winston Peters:

“The MMP promise was that in time it would demonstrate there was no need for Maori seats. And today we’ve got 24 per cent.”

I think he’s referring to 24% of MPs who identify as Maori.

Prime Minister Bill English:

“We’ve always said our preference is current coalition partners. We don’t rule out New Zealand First.”

An odd comment on this but that has a clear implication National value the Maori Party as a coalition partner and have no immediate plans to address the Maori Seat question.

Ardern’s comment in the 1 News item doesn’t relate to the Maori seat question, but she was clear on The Nation in the weekend:

Lisa Owen: OK, well, while we’re talking about the Maori seats, Winston Peters– This is another one of Winston’s bottom lines is to have a referendum on the Maori seats. Would you pay that price? Would you be prepared to pay that price to get into government?

Kelvin Davis: We’re not going to have a referendum on Maori seats. It’s off the table.

…Jacinda Ardern: The makeup of government will be determined by voters. So voters deserve to know what each political party’s position on those issues are. Labour’s position on that issue is that the Maori seats are for Maori to decide. Labour will allow only Maori to make the decision about those seats. That is our position.

Lisa Owen: All right. So, is Labour’s position, Labour’s policy, no referendum on Maori seats?

Jacinda Ardern: Only Maori should have the decision around whether or not those seats remain. We’ll stay firm on that…

…Lisa Owen: No, I’m asking you your policy. I’m asking your policy.

Jacinda Ardern: And I’m being very clear – only Maori will decide whether those Maori seats remain. We have no reason right now– I have not heard from–

Lisa Owen: That leaves the door open for a referendum of people on the Maori roll.

Jacinda Ardern: No, it does not. Maori have not raised the need for those seats to go, so why would we ask the question?

Andrew Geddis at The Spinoff:  The trouble with Winston Peters’ referendums

…his call to allow voters to decide the future of the Māori seats is superficially attractive. However, it ignores the fact that the five-yearly Māori electoral option already provides a de-facto referendum on this question.

During this option period, every voter of Māori descent can choose whether to be on the Maori or General electoral roll. If enough Māori voters decide to switch from the Māori to the General roll, then the Māori seats automatically will cease to exist.

Instead, 55% of all Māori voters prefer to be on the Māori roll. That point really needs emphasising; a majority of those Māori enrolled to vote consciously have chosen that the Māori seats should continue.

So most Maori prefer to be on the Maori seats, and most New Zealanders (78%) support retaining the seats or see see it as something to look at some time in the future.

Peters now is proposing the non-Māori majority will get to decide the future of these seats for Māori. That is just a really, really bad idea. Putting aside the sheer injustice of the proposal, it is a recipe for divisive social conflict.

And so, the Constitutional Review Panel charged with examining New Zealand’s constitutional arrangements concluded in 2013:

Although the Panel received a large number of submissions supporting the removal of the Māori seats this option is not recommended. It is inappropriate for longstanding rights of a minority to be taken away simply because that minority is outnumbered. The existence of the Māori seats does not impede or limit the rights of other New Zealanders to exercise their vote.

For the same reason the Panel does not support the view it heard that a general referendum should be held on the retention or abolition of the Māori seats. The question about options for the Māori seats and Māori representation requires a more nuanced decision-making tool that takes account of minority views. The Panel agrees that the decision about the future of Māori seats should remain in the hands of Māori.

That conclusion was right then, and it remains right today. Peter’s attempt to stir up some Don-Brash-Orewa-speech-era poll magic is a mad, bad and dangerous one.

An important aspect of a representative democracy (and a key reason why we have such a system) is that it is a responsibility of elected representatives to protect the rights of minorities.

That’s why we don’t have binding referendums on reducing taxes for the majority and putting them up for a minority, or having state subsidies on fuel, or banning minority political parties, or banning Catholics, or scrapping the Maori seats.