NZ First accused of leaking UMR poll

Winston Peters has generally trashed polls as fake and meaningless, but it looks like when they suit his purposes he isn’t averse to leaking them.

Two months ago from RNZ:  Peters calls polls fake, claims he’ll win 20% of vote

RNZ’s most recent poll-of-polls had New Zealand First sitting at 8.7 percent.

But Mr Peters said the media’s polls were fake – and his own polling put his party’s support far higher – closer to 20 percent.

“I’ve got the statistical evidence to prove it, I don’t know why the media carry on with their mindset and keep on boring people witless with scenarios that are not going to happen.”

I don’t think he produced any evidence, which isn’t unusual for him.

A week ago on RNZ:  Winston Peters says polls giving him 10% are fake

New Zealand First leader says media polls giving him 10 percent are fake and he’s going to get 20% in the election.

A Colmar Brunton poll had just been published with NZ First on 11%, up 2.

Then last Friday from Newshub:  Labour’s confidential polling leaked:

Newshub has been leaked poll results from the company that does Labour’s internal polling which show it is in big trouble, two-and-a-half months out from the election.

The results show Labour is on 26 percent support – crashing from 34 percent in May.

And New Zealand First, for the first time in three years of polling, is no longer the lowest rating party.

Winston Peters and co are on 14 percent – up 5 percent since May – just overtaking the Greens who are on 13 percent.

Peters didn’t slam this poll as fake.

The company, UMR, does the polling for Labour’s inner sanctum and the results are normally kept secret from the public.

Earlier in the year Little went public with a UMR poll that wasn’t as bad as usual for Labour.

Tonight the Labour Party and UMR said the results had not yet been released to the Labour Party and the leak must have come from a corporate client who had already been provided the results.

Today: Andrew Little accuses Winston Peters of leaking poll that made Labour look bad

Andrew Little is accusing Winston Peters of leaking poll results that are damaging to the Labour Party.

“Whenever you see something that’s reported as a leak, you look at who talks about it the most,” he told Newshub.

“I’m pretty sure NZ First has UMR as a pollster, so I think the leak – in inverted commas – is more likely from New Zealand First than anybody.”

This seems to have been confirmed by Duncan Garner.

Peters didn’t deny it, he avoided ‘reacting’.

“I’ve got no reaction to that. I couldn’t give a rat’s derriere what he says,” the NZ First leader told The AM Show on Monday. He wouldn’t reveal if NZ First used UMR for its polling.

“We don’t divulge who we talk to on the issue of polling… That’s not information you’re privy to… It’s none of your business.”

Mr Peters has been talking up the poll regardless, suggesting he’ll soon have the right to call himself leader of the Opposition.

“If [Labour] go from 26 down to 22, that’s it. Andrew is not in Parliament,” Mr Peters told The Nation on Saturday. “So why would you make these statements, that he’s the next leader of the country? Or the leader of the Opposition?”

It’s not unusual for politicians to trash polls and news they don’t like and then hypocritically promote what suits their purposes.

But UMR is just one poll, a Roy Morgan poll also published last week had NZ First on 8%. Peters would probably call that fake.

Peters has usually been staunch in not predicting election outcomes. On the Nation on Saturday:

Look, you know, one thing is very important in life, and that’s this – don’t count your chickens before they hatch.

But in another break from Peters tradition, in his speech to the NZ First congress on Sunday he closed with:

“So spread the word. This time, in our 24th year, we are going to transform the electoral system and we will be most definitely the Government.”

However he hasn’t produced a poll that backs that up yet.

74% poll support for euthanasia

Colmar Brunton’s latest poll included a question about support of euthanasia.

Asked do they think a terminally ill person should be able to receive assistance from a doctor to end their life:

  • Yes 74%
  • No 18%

This is similar to previous polls, and is a strong reason why Parliament should debate the member’s bill drawn recently.

1 News:  Poll support for euthanasia a wake-up call for undecided MPs says Seymour

ACT leader David Seymour says a 1 NEWS Colmar  Brunton poll showing three quarters of respondents support voluntary euthanasia should be a wake-up call for MPs undecided about his assisted dying bill.

MPs will vote soon after the September election on Mr Seymour’s End of Life Choice bill.

Most parties will have a conscience vote and a number of MPs are yet to make up their minds.

“Too many MPs have ignored public opinion and in a democracy you do that at your peril,” Mr Seymour said.

However…

…anti-euthanasia campaigner Renee Joubert of Euthanasia-Free NZ says poll respondents “were not asked to consider the practical implications in the real world of dysfunctional relationships, domestic and elder abuse, mental health issues”.

That’s the sort of things that Parliament should debate and seek input from the public on.

I support the freedom to choose what to do with one’s own life and death so support euthanasia in general, and I strongly support Seymour’s bill passing it’s first reading so it can be properly debated in Parliament.

There are important details and safeguards to work out so I can’t say whether I would support the bill passing into law without seeing it’s final form.

The actual Colmar Brunton poll results

One News has developed a habit of publishing partial rounded poll results, and then a few days later Colmar Brunton posts the actual details online, which are much more useful.

One News Colmar Brunton poll 1-5 July 2017 – ‘which party would you vote for?’

ColmarBruntonParty2017July

Trends for the party vote:

ColmarBruntonPartyChart2017July

And ‘preferred Prime Minister’:

ColmarBruntonPM2017July

That poll was taken well before the Green-NZ First flare up that started on Sunday continued into today.

 

 

 

1 News Colmar Brunton poll

The first poll after the National Barclay and Labour intern issues is out, with both National and Labour down a bit, and Greens and NZ First up a bit.

It’s not bad for National but looking dire for Labour.

  • National 47% (down from 49)
  • Labour 27% (down from 29)
  • Greens 11% (up from 9)
  • NZ First 11% (up from 9)
  • Maori Party 2% (up from 1)
  • Opportunities Party  1% (Steady)

Labour+Greens=38% – is that why Metiria Turei is openly competing with NZ First without caring about how a rift will affect Labour?

The Maori Party seem to be benefiting from Labour’s loss of support and could be good for 2-3 seats on that sort polling.

TOP will be encouraged but need a lot more.

  • Refuse to answer 5%
  • Undecided 15% (up from 13)

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Bill English 26% (down from 29)
  • Winston Peters 11% (up from 7)
  • Jacinda Ardern 6% (steady)
  • Andrew Little 5% (down from 8)

That’s not great for English but awful for Little. Peters has as much support as Little and Ardern combined.

Those are rounded, the detailed results may take a while. Polling conducted 1-5 July, sample size of 1007 eligible voters.  Margin of error about +/-3.1%

1 News: Andrew Little drops to fourth as preferred PM in latest 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll that sees both major parties take a hit

 

1 News-Colmar Brunton poll June 2017

The latest 1 News-Colmar Brunton poll:

  • National 49% (up from 46)
  • Labour 30% (no change)
  • Greens 9% (down from 11)
  • NZ First 9% (up from 8)
  • Maori Party 1% (down from 4)
  • ACT 1% (no change)
  • TOP 1% (up from 0)
  • Undecided 12%
  • Refused to answer 4%

Field work conducted 27-31 May.

Labour+Greens at 39% is 10% behind National alone, that’s another game changer that doesn’t seem to have changed much at this stage.

Labour+Greens+NZ First at 48% is marginally behind National.

There could be a post-budget bounce here for National but Labour and Greens will be worried and/or frustrated.

TOP will be happy to at least have registered but this isn’t as good for them as the recent (but unproven) Listener poll.

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Bill English 29% (up from 26)
  • Andrew Little 8% (up from 7)
  • Winston Peters 7% (down from 9)
  • Jacinda Ardern 6%

English has gone up, Little also but barely. The Ardern bubble seems to have burst a bit.

Are the budget tax changes good for the country?

  • Yes 44%
  • No 30%
  • Don’t know 16%
  • Haven’t heard about them 10%

Colmar Brunton in 2014:

2014 Colmar Brunton polls for National:

  • 22–26 March 2014 – 47%
  • 17–21 May 2014 – 51%
  • 21–25 June 2014 – 50%
  • 19–23 July 2014 – 52%
  • 9–13 August 2014 – 50%
  • 23–27 August 2014 – 48%
  • 30 August – 3 September 2014 – 50%
  • 13–17 September 2014 – 45%

Election result: 47.04%

Labour:

  • 22–26 March 2014 – 31%
  • 17–21 May 2014 – 30%
  • 21–25 June 2014 – 29%
  • 19–23 July 2014 – 28%
  • 9–13 August 2014 – 26%
  • 23–27 August 2014 – 28%
  • 30 August – 3 September 2014 – 25%
  • 13–17 September 2014 – 25%

Election result: 25.13%

Colmar Brunton poll – March 2017

1 News have a Comlar Brunton poll for March:

  • National 46% (no change)
  • Labour 30% (no change)
  • Greens 11% (no change)
  • NZ First 8% (down from 11)
  • Maori Party 4% (up from 1)
  • The Opportunities Party 0.4% (new)
  • Refused to answer 4%
  • Undecided 14% (down from 15)

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Bill English 26% (down from 31)
  • Winston Peters 9% (no change)
  • Jacinda Ardern 9% (up from 5)
  • Andrew Little 7% (no change)

“Oppose or support the Government’s proposal to hike the age of Superannuation eligibility to 67 in 20 years”

  • Support 50%
  • Oppose 40%
  • Don’t know 8%

Field work 18-22 March 2017
Surveyed just over 1000 voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 per cent (at 50% with a 95% confidence)

Details when available

RNZ poll of polls

‘Poll of polls’ average out poll results but with the small number of polls in New Zealand they can fluctuate nearly as much as the two polls being done, Colmar Brunton and Roy Morgan. CB is polling every three months, RM monthly.

RNZ: Poll of Polls: Labour regains support, National strong

RNZ’s latest Poll of Polls up to mid-February gave Labour an average of 28.5% through January and the first half of February, with just seven months to run until the election. This was 2 points up on its late-2016 average of 26.4%.

But it is well below its 32.5% average at this time in the 2014 election year, from which it dropped to 25.1% in the election.

Any rise will be welcomed by Labour (and Greens) but Labour are still in poor shape…

The Greens latest average is 11.5%. That gives a combined Labour and Greens score of 40%.

…and Greens appear to have hit a support ceiling.

Set that against National’s latest average of 46.7%, close to where it was in November before a 2-point boost after the smooth changeover in December from John Key to Bill English – and very close to its 2014 election score.

The switch to English has had a negligible effect on polls so far.

The trends give an overall picture.

eight_col_nat_v_lab_green_17feb22

It’s still seven months until the election in September and a lot can and no doubt will happen.

Roy Morgan should be due to release their February poll which will add a bit more to the poll picture.

Something missing here

‘Mickysavage’ has an odd post at The Standard: John Key – Mr 2%

One of the more interesting aspects of last night’s Colmar Brunton poll was the decline of support for John Key as preferred Prime Minister to 2%.  Jacinda Ardern is polling at twice that level.

Support for Bill English has surged.  But National strategists should be worried about this.  English is no Key.  In real life he is rather non descript and not very exciting.  He will not dominate the media in the way that John Key has.

I didn’t even think about what Key might have got because he has stepped down as Prime Minister and will be leaving Parliament soon. Why would even 2% who voted for him as ‘preferred Prime Minister’ when he prefers to be out of politics?

But there are not one but two interesting omissions from the post – Andrew Little and Winston Peters.

As nondescript and unexciting as Bill English may be he went from 0% in the last two polls up to 31%, most of what Key got in the last poll.

And Little dropped from 8% to 7%, with Peters staying on 8%.

While Labourites may be relishing the chance, at last, to savage Key on a poll result it is of no consequence.

How Andrew Little shapes up against Bill English will largely determine the outcome of this year’s election.

I asked an ex-pat Kiwi in Australia last week (someone who keeps an eye on news here and votes in NZ elections) what they thought of Andrew Little. They hadn’t heard if him.

There’s not just something missing from the poll post at The Standard, there is something missing from Labour.

Whale Oil slump

Whale Oil has been trying to trash Bill English since he became Prime Minister and they have been trying to trash National since New Zealand along with all other countries in the security voted in December to censure Israel, except the US who abstained.

This morning ‘Cameron Slater’ tries to connect the poll result to their anti-English and anti-National agenda: First poll of year sees Nats slump 4 points, thanks Murray

National has slumped 4 points int he latest 1News/Colmar Brunton poll.

Winston Peters is in the box seat, but Bill English must be regretting letting Murray McCully run rogue at the UN Security Council. This is the cost.

National has started the slide to a number starting with 3.

Bill English better get well acquainted with Winston Peters…and he better sort out Murray McCully or this drop will be just the start.

That’s nonsensical analysis, it’s just trying to justify WO’s doom and gloom predictions with what is actually a fairly consistent poll result. National results since October 2015: 47, 47, 50, 48, 48, 50, 46 so 46% is nothing like a slump.

In fact National have been polling consistently within a fairly narrow band since 2012 with low points 4-5 years ago.

Slater is demonstrating again that he uses Whale Oil for political activism rather than as credible media alternative.

Notably Slater’s slant is largely unsupported in comments so far.

Wilson: Some in the media were saying the first poll will have a 3 in front of it. So 46% is great.

Curly1952: I believe the drop to 46% for National was to be expected as JK was the glue to the party.

As far as the McCully factor goes I would suggest that large swathes of the electorate won’t even consider the UN resolution as part of the political barometer in NZ.

Most of the electorate are unlikely to be aware of the UN vote, or won’t care about it.

Omlete:I think the broad electorate have enough native smarts to not want the wreckers/ haters and unionist thugs on the treasury benches. It will be a National led government.

Ross:On what evidence exactly do you blame Murray?

Korerorero: I don’t thinks it’s that bad. National was on 50% in the last colmar poll.
So this is probably a correction to be in line with the other polls which had Nats around 46%. I think you’ll see nats stay around this number (or possible rise again) after their budget surprise that will leave labour shell shocked and the voters happy.

The only one supporting Slater’s agenda was ‘Positan’:

It’s not a correction. Within my many circles there was utter disbelief at the Christmas Eve announcement of NZ’s position on Res:2334 – and then anger bordering on outrage at English’s failure to front during the holidays and explain. The anger grew with the continued failure of any senior Nat to front – especially, with the empty silly letters issued by pressured Nat MPs.

Next, there were the circulating stories as to how English & Co had believed the whole matter would be blown over by the end of the holidays – the reason for the deafening silence – which has wrought the real damage of “my party vote will go elsewhere,” and “sorry, no extra donation this year.”

If National’s members are saying those sorts of things out loud now – that’s why the 46% figure has happened. English has completely misread his party’s membership’s feelings and he’s blown it. I think National’s poll figures could get very much worse.

That sounds very similar to some of the anti-National posts over the last two months.

Of course National’s poll figures could get worse, but there is no discernible effect on them from the UN vote against Israel, and this poll result is only being called a slump by Slater and some desperadoes at The Standard.

The only slump shown here is in Whale Oil credibility as a political analyst.

First Colmar Brunton poll of 2017

The major parties will be happy-ish with the first  News Colmar Brunton poll of the year, especially NZ First, but Labour have a way to go to where they need to be.

  • National 46% (down from 50 in November 2016)
  • Labour 30% (up from 28)
  • Greens 11% (no change)
  • NZ First 11% (up from 10)
  • Maori Party 1% (no change)
  • ACT Party 1% (up  from 0)
  • Mana Party 1% (up from 0)

Labour and Greens combined are 41% so would need NZ First support to form a government.

Labour are trending upwards slowly again – results since October 2015:

  • 31, 32, 28, 29, 26, 28, 30

Greens may be a bit concerned as they often do worse in elections than they poll – results since October 2015:

  • 12, 8, 10, 12, 13, 11, 11

They are not making any gains since James Shaw took over co-leadership from Russel Norman and the Memorandum of Understanding with Labour hasn’t had any significant poll benefit.

National results since October 2015:

  • 47, 47, 50, 48, 48, 50, 46

That’s remarkable considering they are nearing the end of their third term and John Key has stepped down from leading them.

National are within  margin of error to forming a similar arrangement they have now, depending on whether ACT and Peter Dunne survive. They will be reasonably happy with this result, the first Colmar Brunton poll with English as Prime Minister.

With rounding it’s hard to take much from the minor party movements.

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Bill English 31% (John Key was 36 in November)
  • Winston Peters 8% (no change)
  • Andrew Little 7% (down from 8)
  • Jacinda Ardern 4% (up from 1)

English should be pleased enough with this. Peters will be very pleased to be ahead of Little, who should be worried about his continued lack of appeal.

Ardern remains adamant she doesn’t want to be Prime Minister.

1 News:  Labour and Greens close gap on National following John Key’s departure

The poll of just over 1000 eligible voters was taken between February 11 and 15. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 per cent.