Newshub released a Reid Research a poll on Sunday with ridiculous headlines and claims. 1 News released a Colmar Brunton poll last night with less dramatic but still over the top claims. Polls are just polls, especially this far from an election, but they try to get value from the expense of polling by making stories out of them that aren’t justified.
Last time the two polled the biggest talking point was how different their results were. The Reid Research poll was regarded as an outlier, being quite different to any other polls this term.
The most notable thing about the polls this time is that the results are very similar, taking into account margins of error of about 3% for the larger results, and the fact that Colmar results are rounded to the nearest whole number.
- National: RR 43.9% (+6.5%), CB 47% (+2)
- Labour: RR 41.6% (-9.2), CB 40% (-3)
- Greens: RR 6.3% (+0.1), CB 7% (+1)
- NZ First: RR 4.0% (+1.2), CB 4% (+1)
- ACT: RR 1.4% (+0.6), CB 1% (-)
- TOP: RR 1.1% (+1.0), CB 1% (-)
- Maori Party: RR 0.7% (+0.2), CB 1% (-)
I don’;t think it’s surprising at this stage to see National a bit ahead of Labour, Labour has had a mixed month or two and is struggling to make major progress due to the restraint of coalition partner NZ First.
Green support looks at a safe level, but is well below what they were getting last term (about half).
NZ First are still polling below the threshold and will be in a battle to stay in Parliament.
Is is fairly normal these days there are a number of borderline governing scenarios with these numbers, with National+ACT and Labour+Greens thereabouts but not certainties.
A lot may depend on whether NZ First make the threshold or not next election. Both other times they have been in a coalition government they have lost support at the next election.
Trends from Opinion polling for the next New Zealand general election (Wikipedia):

That shows the last Reid Research anomaly well.
Preferred Prime Minister:
- Jacinda Ardern: RR 38.4% (-10.6), CB 38% (-3)
- Simon Bridges: RR 6.7% (+2.5), CB 9% (+3)
- Judith Collins: 5.2% (-1.9), CB 5%
- Winston Peters: CB 4%
Ardern a bit down, Bridges a bit up but still a big difference.
Newshub also did a poll on performance:
- Ardern: performing well 62.4%, performing poorly 23.1%
- Bridges: performing well 23.9%, performing poorly 52.7%
UPDATE: 1 News/Colmar Brunton have also started asking a similar question:
- Ardern handling her job as Prime Minister: +33
approve 62%
disapprove 29%
don’t know or refused 8%
- Bridges’ handling his job as National Party leader: -22
approve 29%
disapprove 51%
don’t know or refused 20%
Ardern performance is well above her party support, while Bridges is well below National support (about half).
- Newshub-Reid Research Poll was conducted between 2-9 October 2019.
1000 people were surveyed, 700 by telephone and 300 by internet panel
- 1 News-Colmar Brunton poll conducted between 5-9 October
1008 eligible voters were polled by landline (502) and mobile phone (506)
So both now rely on some polling by something other than landline, Reid Research 30% by internet panel and Colmar Brunton 50% by mobile phone.
1 News link here.
Newshub/Reid Search links here and here.
The Newshun headline says “Jacinda Ardern, Labour take massive tumble in new Newshub-Reid Research poll” but a more accurate description would have been “Newshub poll looks more likely following last rogue poll”. It wasn’t a massive tumble for Ardern, more like a large correction by Reid Research.