A number of business and economic indicators are positive, immigration and tourism are at record highs while mortgage rates are at record lows and oil prices continue to fall (Brent crude at 11 year low).
ODT reports in Full of confidence:
At a glance
• Westpac McDermott Miller December consumer confidence: 110.7 points, up 4.7 points on September
• ANZ Business Outlook – business confidence rises to an eight-month high
• ANZ Job Ad Series has risen for the third consecutive month, first time since early 2014
• Strong retail sales expected, but warnings about getting into debt issued
• Gross domestic product (economic) growth in the third quarter outperformed the first and second quarters put together.
McDermott Miller director John McDougall said the December result in the consumer confidence survey was still 4.2 points below the level prevailing last Christmas but marked the largest quarterly increase since December 2013.
The lift was largely driven by a return to positive sentiment about the short-term prospects for the New Zealand economy with a net 7.7% expecting good times over the coming year – a sharp contrast with the net 15% expecting bad times in September.
Among those consumers expecting good economic times over the next year, the most commonly cited reason was a belief in “effective government economic policy”.
Only 10% credited better export prospects.
Among those expecting bad economic times, the most common reason was “wrong government economic government policies” followed by low dairy prices, he said.
So economic indicators and confidence are looking positive.
Tourism and immigration are both at record highs.
NZ in demand as destination
New Zealand remains an attractive destination to move to permanently or visit, with both November’s monthly migration and tourism numbers reaching record highs.
Statistics New Zealand figures show net migration inflows remain at an extremely high level with no signs of moderating.
ASB chief economist Chris Tennent-Brown said strong net migration inflows were helping support robust levels of consumption but were also adding workers to the labour market and helping keep a lid on inflation.
Seasonally-adjusted visitor numbers were also at a record level and that was boosting service exports.
“We expect visitor arrivals growth to remain firm over 2016, with the lower New Zealand dollar boosting spending.”
Also helping many people (in business and with mortgages) are record low interest rates.
Record-low rates; bank margins fall
The competitive lending environment of the first half of the year intensified in the three months ended September as banks offered record-low interest rates to attract customers.
And oil prices (and petrol prices) keep going down.
Brent oil hits 11-year low
Brent oil cratered to its lowest price in more than 11 years, as demand for heating oil slumped on warmer-than-normal temperatures and traders tested for a bottom.
Brent futures were down 53 cents at $36.35, falling as much as 2 percent during the session to a low of $36.04, their weakest since July 2004.
Brent has dropped nearly 19 percent this month, its steepest fall since the collapse of failed US bank Lehman Brothers in October 2008.
US crude remained above its 2009 low and settled up a penny a barrel as traders squared positions ahead of the January contract’s expiration. The February contract declined and analysts expect stockpiles to build again this week, signaling further oversupply in already glutted market.
So business confidence and spending are up, while significant personal and business costs are down.
These things are reported in passing by the media but seem to get far less attention than trivial things.
