Housing supply versus demand

A summary of how we have arrived at the current housing situation from Dene Mackenzie at the ODT:

Supply, demand key factors

Dwelling consents, bank lending and net migration were three of the main factors determining house prices, Milford portfolio manager Brian Gaynor said yesterday.

Supply in the form of dwelling consents, dropped off sharply in 2009 in response to the global financial crisis and the collapse of New Zealand’s finance company sector. The latter was a major supplier of credit for house builders and property developers, he said.

In the four years to 2012, an average of only 14,850 consents a year were issued compared with an average of 26,218 consents in the four years to 2008.

“Consents have picked up dramatically and it will not be long before the annual consents number exceeds 30,000.”

Annual consents in excess of 30,000 had only been achieved five times since records began in 1966. The record high was 39,636 consents in 1974, Mr Gaynor said.

The huge increase in net migration, to 68,432 for the May 2016 year, had a major impact on demand. It represented a net turnaround of 72,085 since the net outflow of 3653 in the May 2012 year.

However, the massive increase in lending to home purchases had also fuelled the housing markets.

There much talk about loan-to-value limits but the lending statistics illustrated the regulation had not been effective, he said.

“The gap between the value of new loans and the value of new dwelling consents has widened dramatically in the past year.”

The housing market took off a few years ago because of the very low build rate after the collapse of the finance company sector, Mr Gaynor said.

Actions by banks could slow down demand. Non resident (overseas) borrowers:

Westpac was one of several banks which stopped lending to non-resident borrowers with overseas income last month, and Bankers Association chief Karen Scott-Howman said lenders were responding to signals in the market and from the Reserve Bank.

And yesterday a cutback on the term allowed for interest-only loans:

Westpac’s New Zealand unit is cutting interest-only lending terms to a maximum of five years, in a market where investors are the driving force.

Interest-only loans were often used by property investors who met the interest repayments and left the principal untouched on the expectation they could pocket a capital gain on a house sale.

Reserve Bank figures showed interest-only mortgages accounted for about 41% of all new lending in May, up from 38% in January when it first started collecting the data. Of existing home loans, interest-only mortgages totalled $60.82billion as at March 31, or 28% of total loans.

A dramatic effect could be coming:

Supply was now increasing and any reduction in immigration and/or banking lending was likely to have a dramatic impact on house prices. Housing bulls should keep a close eye on the rising supply figures, he said.

The pushes to increase supply should eventually work, and with limits put on investors in the market supply may switch from lagging to exceeding demand.

It’s anyone’s guess whether the market will flatten or fall.