Rigged to advantage the rich

I think it’s hard to judge how significant this is leading into the election.

Headlining this ‘Time for a change?’ makes it look like an election advertisement, not a good look for a poll report.

IPSOSPollDisenchantment

This was an online weighted survey of about 500 people, a relatively low sample size.

Stuff:  Over half of Kiwis think politics and the economy are rigged against them

A new poll shows that a majority of the country think the economic and political system are rigged against them.

The Ipsos poll, taken in May of 2017, shows that women and those earning less are even more likely to consider the system broken.

But Kiwis are less disenchanted than those in other countries and just a quarter think the country is in “decline”.

So relatively not bad here.

There is too little information to judge the  importance of the poll to the election.

It’s likely to have been normal for a very long time that poorer people tend to think the financial system is stacked against them

Fully 56 per cent of Kiwis questioned agree that traditional parties and politicians don’t care about people like them.

That doesn’t surprise me – most people have little or no direct contact with politics or politicians.

Just 16 per cent disagreed with that sentiment, and the unemployed were far more likely to think the system was rigged.

That’s hardly surprising either.

In other countries like Australia dissatisfaction was higher.

That’s why we have a lot of Kiwis leaving Australia and coming back to New Zealand.

“There definitely does seem to be some sense that there is a mood for change,” said Ipsos’s Nicola Legge.

Really? I don’t see that  being polled.

What if disenchantment levels have reduced?

“There is a sense that the economy is most benefiting those who need it least, with politicians having lost sight of the needs of everyday Kiwis. Low income households especially are feeling the strain.”

“There are also signs that as we prepare to go to the polls in September many are open to a leader that will break the mould and release us from more of the same.”

“While we are not alone in the world with these views, it would be wrong to assume we are primed for a sea-change such has that experienced in other countries in the past year.”

A pollster trying to link their limited poll result to elections in other parts of the world in very different circumstances.

Political scientist Bryce Edwards said everyone who was part of the “system” – left or right – should  heed the warning.

Politicians should always heed warnings of disenchantment.

“Until now, it has looked like New Zealand has been immune from the world-wide increase in radical politics and rebellion against the establishment. This poll shows that such political upheavals could yet come to New Zealand,” Edwards said.

I don’t see that in the poll at all. Without knowing trends I don’t think much can be deduced.

Edwards said how this might play out on an election might be hard to predict, as many of the disenchanted would simply not vote.

Yes, very hard to predict. And those who might feel disenchanted may have equal feelings for all parties, or different people may be more disenchanted with different parties.

“But there will be some looking for some sort of electoral outlet for their concerns. And the best positioned parties are going to be NZ FIrst with Winston Peters and Shane Jones, and TOP to some degree.”

What if a lot of people are disenchanted with Winston’s same old button pushing dog whistling rhetoric? And what if Shane Jones turns out not impressing voters?

It seems to me that some media want political turmoil to report on so look for reasons why it could happen.

“The fact that half of New Zealanders would appear to welcome an anti-democratic politician ruling the country should be a huge concern.

Where the hell does he see that?

One poll result was 50% wanted a strong leader willing to break the rules – but that is very vague and could mean many things.

I think that many people may be disillusioned with the same old politics and would like the mould broken, but Peters and Jones are political establishment who court controversy for media attention, not for doing anything much different.

“This suggests that politics really is in a very unhealthy state”.

Very unhealthy? It could be improved – I’d like to see some improvements for sure – but while our democracy may in ways be ailing it’s probably less unhealthy than most of the alternatives.

Many people have probably thought the system is rigged for the rich and against them.

Will National’s proposed tax cuts change that?