If polls are bad demand a new pollster

Donald Trump made the news a month ago (I can’t remember where) – his approval polls were better than Barack Obama’s at the same time in their terms. But that was brief as Obama’s polling recovered and Trump’s dipped.

While polling for past presidents has fluctuated Trump’s approval/disapproval polling has been more consistent – and worse than Obama, GW Bush and Bill Clinton just bout all the time.  See FiveThirtyEight How Trump compares with past presidents

Lately even the Rasmussen polls, which usually tend to favour Trump, have him -11% , and the aggregate is currently 55% disapprove, 41.1% approve.

There have been shows of public disapproval recently – here is the second:

A poll from one of Trump’s favoured media has been described by him as ‘lousy’.

USA Today: ‘I have the real polls’: Trump calls Fox News polls ‘lousy’ after survey finds 49% support impeachment

Trump’s ‘real poll’ has him on 100% approval – it has a sample size of 1 and a margin of error of 0%, according to him.

President Donald Trump on Sunday dismissed polls that have found growing support for his impeachment as a new Fox News poll found that 49% of registered voters think he should be removed from office.

“You’re reading the wrong polls,” Trump told reporters when asked about the surveys outside the White House. “I have the real polls. The CNN polls are fake. The Fox polls have always been lousy I tell them they ought to get themselves a new pollster.”

Keep changing the pollster until you get the results you want? Funny how he says that CNN polls are fake, but Fox polls are just lousy.

Trump said “the real polls” that came out that same morning showed that “people don’t want anything to do with impeachment.” But the president did not explain what polls he was referring to.

He may have made that up. probably. He is well known for making things up. Lying.

Trump is currently facing an impeachment inquiry for allegedly using military aid as leverage to pressure Ukraine into investigating potential interference in the U.S. 2016 election and allegations involving former Vice President Joe Biden.

Despite several witnesses who have appeared to corroborate the allegations against Trump, the 49% who said they want the president removed from office actually represented a two-point drop from the previous Fox News poll in early October.

When asked if there was a chance that new evidence could sway their opinion on impeachment, 57% of those who opposed it said there was nothing that could get them to change their minds.

There is a significant minority of Trump supporters who re unlikely to change their minds no matter what he says or does. But another significant portion of voters are the key to his re-election chances, if he lasts in the job long enough to stand again.

Thirty-four percent said new evidence could make them support impeachment.

Sixty percent of voters said they thought Trump had asked Ukraine to investigate his political rivals and 52% believed he held up military aid to add pressure for Ukraine to do it and 46% said the affair had worsened their opinion of Trump.

Trump and his Republican defenders have dismissed the impeachment inquiry as a politically motivated “witch hunt” but a majority (52%) of voters said it was legitimate. Thirty-nine percent said it was a “bogus attempt to undermine Trump’s presidency.”

The US political circus continues.

Of course there’s a chance that Trump will survive impeachment, and win the presidential election next year. If he does that will have more to do with the lack of decent Democrat candidates than his own achievements and behaviour.

Sure Trump has achieved some positive things. All presidents do. But one of Trump’s biggest achievements  is how much he has degraded the position of president of the United States. On that he is well ahead of anyone else.

With the help of his family:

 

Rain, floods and a major bridge washout on the West Coast

Heavy run is normal on the West Coast, but they are currently getting more than usual, with floods road closures from Makarora (just north of Lake Wanaka leading over the Haast pass) to Hokitika.

And there has been a major bridge collapse on the Waiho river just south of Franz Josef township – this is the only road  between there and Fox Glacier.

Civil Defence West Coast

 

1 News:  Astonishing footage captures bridge collapse in Franz Josef as wild weather batters West Coast

The river doesn’t look particularly high, but has been flowing very strongly with boulders and ice chunks likely to have damaged the supports.

Might need to go a bit faster than 30 to get across that gap.

It could take quite a bit to get that river crossing and therefore the only highway re-opened.

Image may contain: sky

There is currently one road closure, SH6 Franz Josef to Fox Glacier with two slips at Omoeroa and significant surface flooding south of Whataroa at Lake Wahapo. Please watch the NZTA Website for any developments at:

Latest Update:  26 March 2019 8:42 pm

There is a raised risk to life and injury for local residents and further risk to property, and accordingly the Mayor Bruce Smith has declared a State of Emergency for the Westland District.

The Waiho Bridge has been completely destroyed. NZTA will be assessing how to reinstate the Highway following this disastrous event. The ECC will be assessing the need for a controlled evacuation on the South Side of the Waiho River.

‘You know if you want to play with the big boys, you have to lay with the big boys’

It’s not surprising to see claims that US media and politics is corrupted by sex as well as by money.

The story of Bill Clinton and Monica Lewinsky is well known, but that may have just been groupie sort of stuff rather than abuse of power.

Roger Ailes is the Chairman and CEO of Fox News and the Fox Television Stations Group. He has also been heavily involved in politics, including as media consultant for Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan and George G W Bush.

Ailes is under fire with a number of allegations of sexual harassment coming out.

Daily Intelligencer: Six More Women Allege That Roger Ailes Sexually Harassed Them

Fox News host Gretchen Carlson may be the highest-profile woman to accuse Roger Ailes of sexual harassment, but she is not the first. In my2014 biography of the Fox News chief, I included interviews with four women who told me Ailes had used his position of power to make either unwanted sexual advances or inappropriate sexual comments in the office.

And it appears she won’t be the last, either. In recent days, more than a dozen women have contacted Carlson’s New Jersey-based attorney, Nancy Erika Smith, and made detailed allegations of sexual harassment by Ailes over a 25-year period dating back to the 1960s when he was a producer on The Mike Douglas Show.

Here is one example:

Kellie Boyle, 54
Former Republican National Committee field adviser

This was back in 1989. I was 29 and living in New Jersey. My husband worked at CNBC and he said, ‘Roger Ailes is coming in to be interviewed, would you like to meet him?’ I said yes!

I’d worked in political communications for the Republican National Committee; so Roger Ailes was like a God. I’d read his book, You Are the Message, and I used it for a lot of training I did for candidates.

I introduced myself in the green room and he was very charming and said, ‘Would you like to visit my office downtown sometime?’

A week or two later I went in and mentioned to him I was going down to D.C. the following week to sign a major contract with the National Republican Congressional Committee. He said, ‘I’m going to be in D.C. too. Would you like to have dinner before you go in?’

So we had a nice dinner at a restaurant in Union Station. There was nothing untoward about it at all. He had a driver and a car, and after dinner he said, ‘Can I take you to your friend’s?’

So we get in the car and that’s when he said, ‘You know if you want to play with the big boys, you have to lay with the big boys.’

I was so taken aback. I said, ‘Gosh I didn’t know that. How would that work?’ I was trying to kill time because I didn’t know if he was going to attack me. I was just talking until I could get out of the car.

He said, ‘That’s the way it works,’ and he started naming other women he’s had. He said that’s how all these men in media and politics work — everyone’s got their friend.

I said, ‘Would I have to be friends with anybody else?’ And he said, ‘Well you might have to give a blowjob every once in a while.’ I told him I was going to have to think about this. He said, ‘No, if you don’t do it now, you know that means you won’t.’

The next morning I show up to get my assignment and was told the guy I was supposed to be meeting with was unavailable.

Back in New Jersey I got a call from Roger Ailes. He said, ‘How’d your meeting go?’ I said, ‘Actually he wasn’t available and I’m hoping to hear back from him.’ He said, ‘Ah, well, I’m sure you will. Have you changed your mind yet?’ I said, ‘I’ll have to pass, Roger. I’m married and really committed to my husband. No offense.’

He said, ‘Well, we’ll be in touch.’ And that was that.

A couple weeks later, I called a friend who was very high up in the RNC and I asked him what happened. He said, ‘Word went out you weren’t to be hired.’

That’s not just sleazy, it’s gross abuse of power, and may be illegal.

And it looks like it may be catching up with him.

Gretchen Carlson’s Sexual-Harassment Lawsuit May Allow Murdoch Sons to Finally Oust Roger Ailes From Fox News

Throughout his five-decade career in media and Republican politics, Roger Ailes has demonstrated a remarkable talent for self-preservation. “I have been through about 12 train wrecks in my career. Somehow, I always walk away,” he boasted in the mid-’90s to a senior NBC executive who’d alleged Ailes hurled an anti-Semitic comment at him. As the head of Fox News, Ailes deployed his survival skills frequently to weather scandals of career-ending proportions and a bitter power struggle with Rupert Murdoch’s oldest son, Lachlan.

But in the wake of Gretchen Carlson’s shocking sexual-harassment lawsuitagainst Ailes, there are signs that the 76 year-old’s luck may have finally expired.

Carlson had just been dropped from Fox before filing her lawsuit.

On Wednesday, Fox’s parent company, 21st Century Fox, released a terse statement saying it took the allegations “seriously” and is conducting an “internal review of the matter.