2017 General Election details

Here are a number of sites with information about New Zealand’s general election to be held on Saturday 23 September 2017. Advance voting begins on Monday 11 September. You can also ask to be sent postal voting papers.

Electoral Commission:  2017 General Election – ‘everything you need to know’

Social media & Politics: Online media Details for Parties and Candidates

The database contains the website, Facebook, Twitter and Instagram details for candidates contesting the 2017 New Zealand General Election.

Political Hack:

Wikipedia:

If you know of other useful election information post the link/s in comments.

This post has been added to the Your NZ menu.

Election predictions

Polls are generally snapshots of opinion in the past, but they are often used to try to predict future election results. This can be interesting but accuracy is obviously not guaranteed.

An interesting approach here to New Zealand general election forecasts

This page provides experimental probabilistic predictions for the 2017 New Zealand General Election. It draws on multiple opinion polls, but goes a step beyond a straightforward poll aggregator in that the estimated voting intention from successive polls is used to forecast the chances of each party to actually win seats on election day, taking into account uncertainty. Polling results are also adjusted to take into account different polling firms’ past performance in predicting different parties’ results.

Every election can have it’s own unique pattern of lead-up polling so past trends won’t always predict future trends correctly, but this is as good as predictions can get.

It has some flaws but I expect some of these to be dealt with.

Oddly that doesn’t include a National coalition with NZ First.

What I like about this site is that it shows ranges of probabilities, showing that there is always margin for ‘error’ or inaccuracy.

This shows that a range of outcomes are possible for all parties. I presume it will be refined as we get closer to the election – it will be interesting to compare these predictions with later ones.

The poll results and trends show how volatile the polls have been for Labour, Greens and NZ First.

Perhaps ominously for National their results have been tightening in a downward trend since John Key stepped down, but it’s too soon for poll responses to the budget.

For the term to 2014 National had been trending down but that turned around, but well in advance of the election. They will be hoping for a late upswing this year but there is no sign of that yet.

NZ First have had late and significant upswings for previous elections after dipping mid term, but this term their poll support has held up. It’s difficult to predict whether this pattern will repeat this year or not.

House of Commons votes for general election

From Missy:

UK General Election update:

The House of Commons voted 522-13 in favour of the General Election on 8 June, exceeding the 2/3 majority required.

13 MPs voted against, including 9 Labour MPs.

115 MPs did not vote, I am unsure if they were all abstentions, or if some were just not in Parliament today. The SNP abstained reportedly along with a handful of Labour MPs.

The Government will make a call this week on the by-election due to be held on 4 May, there are those saying it should not go ahead.

More MPs announced they would not be standing in the election, amongst them George Osborne, which is probably a good thing as his new job as editor of the Evening Standard may have been seen as a conflict of interest.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/19/mps-due-vote-triggering-snap-general-election/


Parties are already talking potential coalitions in order to keep the Conservatives out of power.

Liberal Democrats have ruled out going into coalition with Labour, but not with the Conservatives. That may be a problem with those voters they lost in 2015 who felt betrayed by their coalition with the Conservatives.

The SNP has said that they will seek a ‘progressive alliance’ with Labour and the Liberal Democrats. This presents 2 problems, the first is that it was the thought of a coalition or alliance between Labour and the SNP that is thought to have given the Conservatives the outright majority in 2015, the second is that the Liberal Democrats have already ruled out working with Labour so I am not sure why Nicola Sturgeon thinks that they will for her.

By-election or general election?

When news came out that David Shearer was likely to resign from his Mt Albert electorate to take up a UN job Andrew Little suggested an early general election would be more appropriate than a by-election.

One News: Little calls for early election instead of Mt Albert by-election brought by David Shearer’s expected move to UN role

Labour leader Andrew Little says his party is “ready to go” and that a General Election should be held in mid-winter 2017, instead of a by-election that would be triggered if Labour MP David Shearer takes up a new job at the UN.

Labour Leader Andrew Little said today it was his preference for a General Election to be held mid-winter in 2017 instead of later in the year.

General elections are not supposed to be scheduled at the convenience of a party leader.  It would be ludicrous if an Opposition MP resigning before the end of their term justified interfering with the normal 3 year term, which is short enough as it is.

But after new Prime Minister Bill English announced a Mt Albert by-election date (25 February) acting Labour leader Annette King continued asking for an early election. She posted this PR yesterday:

National no-show gutless, but Labour is ready

Labour is ready and keen to talk about the problems facing electors in Mt Albert despite the gutless decision of Bill English not to front a National candidate there, says Labour Deputy Leader Annette King.

“English is running scared from his first test as a leader. He clearly doesn’t want another bloody nose after the Mt Roskill defeat.

“We are more than ready for another contest and relish the chance to talk to people in Mt Albert about how Labour can help them deal with the problems around rising crime, health, public transport and housing affordability.

“We take nothing for granted and will be seeking a mandate for Labour’s new candidate in Mt Albert. As we showed in Mt Roskill, we are ready to fight a by-election and a general election.

“The easiest solution really is for Bill English to do everyone a favour. For tens of thousands of Kiwis a change of government can’t come soon enough so let’s save the cost of a by-election and bring forward the general election,” says Annette King.

The easiest solution would be for Labour to not dump so many leaders who then find better jobs outside Parliament. Already this year Phil Goff has resigned and David Cunliffe has indicated he will resign as soon as he can avoid precipitating a by-election. With David Shearer that’s all three post-Helen Clark ex-leaders jumping ship.

Labour want an early election so they can try to beat Bill English before he can establish himself as Prime Minister.

Or they want a by-election so they can benefit from a taxpayer funded campaign opportunity to kick off their election year.

Someone as experienced as King promoting this pathetic bull is ridiculous. Perhaps her influence is one of the reasons Labour has become a party of whinging and negativity.

It’s a bit rich of King to grizzle about National deciding not to stand a candidate in Mt Albert just after announcing she has decided not to stand in her Rongotai electorate in the general election, giving her leader Little an opportunity to win a safe seat.

General elections should only be called if it becomes impossible for the Government to continue governing effectively. King must know this, yet she barks at a by-election, and barks for a general election.

The next election?

It’s fascinating to contemplate when our next election will be. It could be anywhere from March to November.

Will Bill English want to get another budget done and dusted before an election? Or will he seek a mandate first?

If David Shearer resigns as seems likely, will they go for a by-election and then a later general election?  If there is no by-election there will have to be a general election within 6 months, which would make it mid year (winter time).

English won’t have fond memories of the winter election in 2002 when he led National to a horrible result of 20.93%.

The options look like:

  • General election as soon as possible, say March
  • General election mid year, June/July
  • By-election in My Albert, then a general election in September/October

Key and English will already have known about Shearer’s possible resignation and are likely to have already considered these scenarios.

key would probably like an early election now he has decided to go, as would David Cunliffe and possible others who have decided not to stand again.

Given National’s reliance on polling it may come down to whether their support holds or drops in the short term.

If their support drops quickly National may prefer to try to build it back up before going to an election.

If their support holds up they are more likely to go to an early election.

The public won’t get to see much polling over the next month or two.