North Island slow-slip follows South Island quake

There has been a lot evidence of land movement during and after what is now referred to as the M7.8 Kaikoura earthquake – it was initially said to be centred close to Culverden and Geonet still shows it as ’15 km north-east of Culverden’ (Kaikoura is about four times further away).

It is thought that the initial quake caused a chain reaction along other fault lines in the South Island, and Wellington was also affected.

Geonet has now revealed that since this movement happened there has been a ‘slow slip’ occurring further north, along the Hawkes Bay and Gisborne coast. Slow slips have been detected there before but only after North Island earthquakes.

Today Geonet posted on Coastal Uplift: How has the Kaikoura Coastline Changed which shows the extent of land movement over a large area of the South island.

Much of the northeastern coast of the South Island was uplifted during the 14th of November 2016 earthquake. We know this from photos of rock platforms covered in seaweed and marine animals such as crayfish and paua stranded above tide levels.

Our records measured the tide gauge at Kaikoura was lifted up by 1 m, and continuous GPS monitoring sites at Kaikoura and Cape Campbell were also raised by 0.7-0.9 m. At this stage we can estimate that the coast was raised between 0.5 m and 2 m from about 20 km south of Kaikoura all the way north to Cape Campbell.

The startling uplift of ~5.5 m at Waipapa Bay is a localised block pushed up between two traces of the Papatea Fault and is thankfully not representative of the whole coastline.

There was greater horizontal movement, reported to up to 10 metres in places. All those ground movement happened along a long stretch of coastline up the north east of the South Island.

kaikouraearthquake_uplift_21nov2016

Uplift and horizontal movement happened on a long stretch of coastline up the north east of the South Island.

Also today Geonet posted Gisborne and Hawke’s Bay slow-slip event follows M7.8 Kaikoura Quake

GPS stations have detected a slow-slip event under the Hawke’s Bay and Gisborne regions in the days following the Kaikoura M7.8 Earthquake.

These silent earthquakes or slow-slip events are undetectable by both humans and GeoNet’s seismographs. They can move faults the equivalent of magnitude 6+ earthquakes over a period of weeks to months, without any detectable shaking.

The ongoing slow-slip event off the North Island’s east coast has moved some GPS stations up to 2-3 centimetres.

So far. It’s only a week since the M7.8

This movement is similar to what has been observed in previous East Coast slow-slip events over the last 15 years, so is not necessarily abnormal. We see events in this area usually every 1-2 years.

We have also observed other slow-slip events happening in response to large earthquakes.

The last slow-slip event offshore of Gisborne followed the Te Araroa earthquake in September 2016 (related GeoNet story http://info.geonet.org.nz/x/ZIAvAQ).

A slow-slip event also occurred following the 2007 M6.7 Gisborne earthquake.

But this time the slow-slip began after a more distant quake.

It is possible that passing seismic waves from the M7.8 earthquake caused stress changes that triggered the slow slip event. GNS Science and GeoNet and scientists are keeping a close eye on the event as it evolves.

So the Culverden quake may have triggered the Kaikoura and Seddon quakes (and three other fault line breaks), nudged across Cook Strait to Wellington and may rearranged stresses enough up the east coast of the North Island to start the slow-slip.

slowslip_hb_and_gisb

This instability covers a large area in which many of New Zealand’s significant earthquakes have occurred.

nz_faults

The initial Culverden quake was on the Hope fault line which reaches back to the top of the Alpine Fault where it breaks apart into Marlborough’s mess of mountains.

Also today Geonet updated it’s statistics based scenarios and forecasts which includes the probability of aftershocks:

  • 99% M6.0-6.9  in the next year (89% within 30 days)
  • 38% >=M7 in the next year (20% within 30 days)

There is no way of knowing, if another large quake occurs, where it would be. There is a lot of uncharted territory here.

What to do about it?

If you feel an earthquake:

Don’t run outside, many injuries are caused by things falling from buildings. Beware of breaking glass.

And if you are close to sea level near the coast don’t wait for a knock on your door or a warning siren, move inland or to higher ground.

And hope that the slow-slip eases the pressure gradually so nothing major gives suddenly.

Q & A today

Today on NZ Q & A (TV1, 9 am):

Hawkes Bay water bottling

Whena Owen returns to Hawke’s Bay where she finds growing tension over the region’s burgeoning water bottling business.

Water bottling, especially for export, and especially with foreign owned companies involved, its a very contentious issue.

It’s also quite complex. Currently water is free for everyone in New Zealand, unless you choose to buy a supply that has cost money to provide it to you.

If water was charged for who would receive the income? The property owner where the water was sourced? The property owner of the source of the water? The Government? Iwi?

Should we all pay for all of the water we use?

Is rain free? Or could it be taxed?

Immigration and economic growth

Political Editor Corin Dann sits down with Treasury Secretary Gabriel Makhlouf – his take on the immigration debate plus the risks facing our economic growth.

Waikato War defined New Zealand History

We have the first look at a new book that claims the Waikato War was the defining battle in New Zealand history – not Gallipoli. Historian Dr Vincent O’Malley talks about The Great War for New Zealand with Dita de Boni.

http://www.nzhistory.net.nz/war/war-in-waikato

I don’t think the Waikato wars can be defined as ‘the defining battle in New Zealand history, but it is a very significant period in our history that deserves more attention and commemoration.

 

 

 

Stuart Nash conflicted on TPP opposition

Steven Joyce has highlighted the fact that a number of Labour MPs actively supported and spoke at Trans Pacific Partnership protests on Saturday. He also poited out that this may conflict with Labour’s interest in promoting regional development.

NZ Herald: Labour MPs’ TPP protests under fire:

Mr Joyce, the Economic Development Minister, said Labour tried to suggest it was generally in favour of TPP and trade deals as a way of backing regional New Zealand but then attended anti-TPP rallies, including in Hawkes Bay.

“I think they are certainly split on it but it also shows they haven’t got any discipline on it either.”

He was most surprised at the attendance of Mr Nash, of Napier, one of the few MPs Labour has from regional New Zealand.

“These trade deals are about the meat industry, the apple industry, the wine industry, the horticultural industry, all those food areas getting access to some of the biggest populations in the world and lowering their tariffs and he is wandering along to an anti-TPP rally.”

I think that’s a fair point, especially for a Hawkes bay MP.

Mr Nash was one of at least six Labour MPs who took part in nationwide marches on Saturday, as was Labour’s trade spokesman, David Parker, who spoke at the Dunedin rally. Others were Phil Twyford, Ruth Dyson, Megan Woods, and Clare Curran, while Jacinda Ardern apologised for her absence.

And Labour’s trade spokeperson David parker was also supporting protests agaist a trade agreement.

Nash defended his involvement.

Mr Nash said he had been an importer and trader for eight years.

“I support free trade, without a question of a doubt, but it is not free trade at any cost.

“I know how valuable trade can be … but I have real concerns about this free trade agreement.

“Because we have no idea what is in this agreement, it is impossible to support it.”

He has no idea what’s in the agreement but has real concerns about it and says it is “impossible to support it.”

I’m not sure whay he’s so ignorant about it, I’ve heard quite a bit about what might be in the agreement, should it be signed.

But why is his default position (if he really has ‘no idea’ what might be in the agreement) to oppose the TPP when it could potentially be of significant benefit to the region he represents?

Shouldn’t he be arguing for an agreement that’s favourable?

Nash and Labour seem to have a strategy of opposing anything the Government is working on, even when they would almost certainly be supporting the policies and initiatives if they were in Government, the TPP and flag change beig current prominent examples.

They might be credible if they opposed specific aspects of the agreement that have been publicised, but claiming total ignorance and appearing to totally oppose the TPP looks like a party entrenced in Opposition.

Hawkes Bay good, Otago bad luck

The Government have announced some generous support of a Hawkes Bay event:

Steven Joyce@stevenljoyce

Announced two years of support for Hawkes Bay Art Deco Weekend thru Major Events Fund. Great event for the region.
http://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/investment-support-art-deco-weekend …

The media release says:

The Government is investing $530,000 through the Major Events Development Fund to support the 2014 and 2015 Art Deco Weekends in Hawke’s Bay, Economic Development Minister Steven Joyce announced today.

“Art Deco Weekend is unique to the region and New Zealand and provides an opportunity for visitors to immerse themselves in 1930s culture, music, history and heritage,” Mr Joyce says.

A cynical hack from the South responded:

Would that be in a National-held seat where the MP is retiring and you have hopes of retaining, by chance?
#notinvermay

Fair point Mr Joyce.

Government don’t even need to “invest” any additional funds in Invermay. Unlike Tiwai.

All we want is for Government to stop gutting Otago.

Farmers – morale and money

As detailed in my last post there  has been some discussion about providing state assistance to farmers suffering from drought – Droughts and farmers versus beneficiaries.

Despite what some people seem to think it doesn’t sound like farmers are flocking to WINZ offices. In a drought in 2009 20 Hawke’s Bay farmers received payments.

Stuff reports:

Drought declaration ‘a show of support’

Declaring drought is more about morale than the money, according to a Hawke’s Bay farmer.

“It makes us feel better really, that people are recognising that we’ve a problem,” Takapau farmer David Hunt said.

The declaration was more a show of support for farmers, said Mr Hunt, who chairs the dairy branch of Federated Farmers Hawke’s Bay.

“Most farmers are pretty good at helping themselves but if you can’t buy feed because your cashflow won’t allow or you can’t find it, it’s good to know you can source outside expertise to find it.”

What assistance can farmers get?

Government assistance includes the unemployment benefit, emergency benefit, and special needs grants to meet immediate needs and Rural Assistance Payments (at same rate as the unemployment benefit, after an asset and income test).

Help from Work and Income includes childcare assistance, family tax credits and accommodation supplements and from Working for Families, and tax relief, such as filing extensions and options to pay tax in instalments.

Inland Revenue assistance includes advice and support, such as workshops, meetings, technical and financial advice.

Some of that is available to everyone in similar income circumstances.

Banks are also offering assistance:

…would also be putting people in touch with ANZ, ASB and BNZ banks, which had all announced drought assistance packages to those affected.

BNZ was offering immediate overdraft approval of up to $100,000 at a special 6 per cent interest rate to affected farmers, alongside immediate access to emergency family funding of up to $10,000.

Loans to banks have to be paid back.

How much state assistance will there be?

The tight criteria meant few farmers were eligible for the payment. In 2009, 20 Hawke’s Bay farmers received the payment.

Mr Barham expected a similar number would receive the payment this year as the region came off the back of the driest six-month spell since 1950.

It doesn’t sound like there will be a flood of state handouts.