J effects mean a likely change of government

It is looking likely we will have a change of government this year, due to several ‘J effects’.

The ‘Jacinda effect’ has been talked about a lot. Jacinda Ardern has certainly turned around Labour’s chances a lot.

At the end of July Labour were diving in the polls and looked likely to drop below 20%. Andrew Little stepped down, Jacinda Ardern stepped up and did very well, aided by a helpful and excited and media.

The Jacinda Effect has kept working since then, but there have been two other J effects that have helped.

The Jaded Effect is something every third term government needs to try to overcome and National arn’t managing that. Bill English has campaigned and debated fairly well but Ardern is now hammering him over things National hasn’t ‘fixed’ over the last 9 years, particularly housing and ‘poverty’. It’s difficult to combat that.

The Joyce Effect is also proving to be a major problem for National. Steven Joyce is National’s campaign manager, and National’s campaign has been poor.

On top of that, this week Joyce launched an attack on a claimed $11b fiscal hole in Labour’s economic policy, and this has been a disaster for Joyce, and has made things very awkward for English.

As a result Labour is doing far better than expected, and National is struggling.

It isn’t all over yet, with two weeks of campaign to go, but advance voting begins next week.

Labour have been ahead in the last two Colmar Brunton polls, 43-41 last week and 43-39 this week. That’s an ominous warning sign for National.

It’s not all that bad – last week’s Reid Research poll had National still slightly ahead, and reports both last week and this week say that internal polling has National slightly ahead as well.

It’s not all over yet for National, but it looks difficult for them from here. Not only are they falling in the polls, they are risk at not even making the coalition negotiations with NZ First support, if Winston Peters decides to talk to them.

There are reports that Labour Maori MPs don’t want to work with the Maori Party, who otherwise seem to prefer siding with Labour, so this could make things difficult for Labour. But Labour have positive momentum and they have more options than National now.

The J effects make it likely we will have a change of government soon.