A United States parliament?


US Parliamentary Pie:


Cruz and Kasich versus Trump

Ted Cruz and John Kasich have come to an agreement to compete less against each other to try and limit Donald Trump’s accumulation of delegates.

ODT (ex Reuters): Cruz, Kasich reach ‘stop-Trump’ deal

Republican White House rivals Ted Cruz and John Kasich announced a deal to stay out of each other’s way in some upcoming state primaries in hopes of blocking front-runner Donald Trump from winning the party’s presidential nomination.

Cruz’s campaign said in a statement he would focus on Indiana and give Kasich a clearer shot in Oregon and New Mexico, states where the Ohio governor expects to do well. Kasich, in turn, agreed to shift resources west and away from Indiana.

The Indiana primary is on May 3, Oregon’s is May 17 and New Mexico’s June 7.

That may make those states more head to head contests, but voters who dislike establishment orientated political deals may rebel against it.

Trump has won the most state nominating contests, but he has a tough path to earn the 1237 delegates needed to secure the nomination. The Cruz and Kasich campaigns believe their agreement to cede states where the other candidate appears strong could help limit Trump’s ability to win more delegates.

Some Republican strategists who oppose Trump have been calling for such a deal for weeks. The question for Cruz and Kasich is whether their agreement is too late.

If no candidate has enough support by the first vote at the Republican National Convention in July, many delegates will be allowed to switch sides on subsequent ballots.

There was no way Kasich could compete on pre-convention delegates, and it Cruz has given up trying as well:

Cruz campaign manager Jeff Roe said Trump, who has offended women, Hispanics and other groups with controversial statements, would lose a general election contest against the eventual Democratic nominee in the November 8 election.

“Our goal is to have an open convention in Cleveland, where we are confident a candidate capable of uniting the party and winning in November will emerge as the nominee,” Kasich chief strategist John Weaver said in a statement.

They aim to use the convoluted Republican nomination system to bypass popular vote to beat Trump.

Not surprisingly Trump has blasted this.

Politico in Cruz and Kasich team up to stop Trump:

Trump fired back late Sunday on Twitter, writing, “Wow, just announced that Lyin’ Ted and Kasich are going to collude in order to keep me from getting the Republican nomination. DESPERATION!”

He added, for good measure: “Lyin’ Ted and Kasich are mathematically dead and totally desperate. Their donors & special interest groups are not happy with them. Sad!”

If Trump fails to get the necessary 1237 delegates and it comes down to a new ball game at the convention it could be that Kasich, trailing the other two by a large margin, could become the favoured contender.

Trump back on track

Donald Trump has recovered from a difficult couple of weeks to convincingly win New York state in the Republican primary. Ted Cruz came a distant third and looks to have little chance of closing Trump’s delegate lead anywhere near enough.

  • Donald Trump 60.5% (89 delegates)
  • John Kasich 25.1% (3 delegates)
  • Ted Cruz 14.5% (0 delegates)

Trump has also made major changes to his electoral team to put a bit of professionalism into his campaign.

Trump even referred respectfully to Kasich and Cruz in his victory speech. He seems to be learning from some bad mistakes.

The odds must now be on him contesting the presidency with Hillary Clinton.

UPDATE: Nate Silver on Trump’s prospects from here.

I’m not sure we’ve learned as much about how Trump will perform outside the Northeast.

It’s been a highly regional campaign so far, and Trump will probably still need to win both Indiana and California to clinch 1,237 without uncommitted delegates.

If he loses both states, we’re probably headed for a multi-ballot convention, which would be trouble for Trump.

If he splits Indiana and California, Trump will be right on a knife’s edge — that’s the case where the extra two or three dozen delegates he’ll pick up in the Northeast tonight and next week could be the most helpful to him.


Unfavourable view of US candidates

The most likely candidates to run off for the US presidency are getting seriously unfavourable ratings from voters:


That’s an awful look for Clinton, Cruz and Trump, and a terrible look for the quality of candidates for one of the most important and powerful positions in the world.