July was hottest recorded month

According to NASA the world keeps heating up, with July 2016 the hottest month since recordings began.

Guardian: July 2016 was world’s hottest month since records began, says Nasa

Last month was the hottest month in recorded history, beating the record set just 12 months before and continuing the long string of monthly records, according to the latest Nasa data.

The past nine months have set temperature records for their respective months and the trend continued this month to make 10 in a row, according to Nasa. July broke the absolute record for hottest month since records began in 1880.

Similar data from the US National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa) said the past 14 months have broken the temperature record for each month, but it hasn’t released its figures for July yet.

Nasa’s results, which combine sea surface temperature and air temperature on land, showed July 2016 was 0.84C hotter than the 1951 to 1980 average for July, and 0.11C hotter than the previous record set in July 2015.

As the string of hottest months continues, 2016 is “virtually certain” to be the hottest year on record, said David Karoly, a climate scientist from the University of Melbourne.

NASAGISSJuly2016

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/

Roy Morgan shock

The latest Roy Morgan poll will be a shock to some, especially those who believed the claims of private UMR polling and thought the political tide had finally turned against John  Key and National – see UMR polls.

Note that it’s just one poll. It’s certainly not rouge but it could be rogue.

Poll taken 4-17 July 2016:

  • National 53% (up from 43)
  • Labour 25.5% (down from 28)
  • Greens 11.5% (down from 14.5)
  • NZ First 7% (down from 9)
  • ACT Party 1% (up from 0.5)
  • Maori Party 0.5% (down from 2)
  • Conservatives 0.5% (down from 1)
  • Mana Party 0.5% (no change)
  • Internet Party 0% (down from 0.5)
  • United Future 0% (no change)
  • Other 0.5% (down from 1)

And for Martyn Bradbury that is National 53% versus LabourGreen 37%.

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This is such a change from last month there has to be some healthy scepticism about this poll, which may well be an outlier.

But it shows that National is not down and virtually out yet.

“In further good news for National the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating increased strongly to 127pts (up 6.5pts) in July.”

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 864 electors in July 2016. Of all electors surveyed 7.5% (up 2%) didn’t name a party.

Margin of error (95% confidence) at 50% will be around +-3.5

RoyMorgan2016--7-21Chart

http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6902-roy-morgan-new-zealand-voting-intention-july-2016-201607211639

If you want to see the reaction at The Standard it starts here.