Roy Morgan party poll – July 2020

Roy Morgan have just published their July poll results (polling through July so already a bit dated). These are quite similar to the Reid Research results (16-24 July) that National claimed to be a ‘rogue’ poll, and are different to the more recent Colmar Brunton poll (25-29 July).

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”

  • Labour 53.5% (down 1)
  • National 26.5% (down 0.5)
  • Greens 8% (down 1)
  • ACT 6.5% (up 1.5)
  • Others 4.0%
  • NZ First 1.5% (no change)
  • The Opportunities Party 1.5% (no change)
  • Maori Party 0.5% (down 0.5)

Again, most polling was done before the Colmar Brunton poll in late July that appeared to show a bit of a National recovery, but confirms they have been well off the pace since the Covid pandemic struck and since Todd Muller took over leadership from Simon Bridges. It will reflect some leadership change and Boag/Walker/Falloon effects, but is too soon to show much if any Judith Collins effect.

New Zealand Party Vote

That still looks great for Labour and grim for National.

And it is worse for NZ First who are well adrift of the 5% threshold (Q+A will release a poll on the Northland electorate tomorrow which will give an indication whether Shane Jones has any chance there).

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a NZ wide cross-section of 899 electors during July. Of all electors surveyed 4% (down 2%) didn’t name a party.

Source: https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8489-nz-national%20-voting-intention-july-2020-202008070802

This shows all the poll results this term with the divergence of Labour and National this year very obvious:

Both the recent higher results for National are Colmar Brunton – have they been the outlier/rogue? Or are they closer to the mark with both Reid Research and Roy Morgan out of whack?

Colmar Brunton for National: 29% (May), 38% (June), 32% (July). Even if that’s more accurate than the others it is still dismal for National.

And this shows the climb of ACT and decline of NZ First:

Ardern and Labour look to have sidelined Winston Peters and NZ First.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2020_New_Zealand_general_election

Labour + Greens are looking very strong in all polls at 55-65%, but Labour could easily govern alone based on all recent polls, and nothing currently seems to be challenging their dominance as control of Covid looks good and the economic impact has been held at bay for now at least.