Business failure rates down

Defying some predictions (similar to the unemployment rate), business failures are down through June and July. How much of that is due to the financial support packages is unknown.

We’re still in the middle of a wild global economic storm, and things will get worse. But no one expected us to actually eradicate covid, and our points of comparison are scant. The economy is doing vastly better than anyone anticipated.

Business are bracing, and have made significant layoffs and reduced hours, but the feared wave of company collapses hasn’t yet made even the hint of an appearance. Sectors unexposed to border closures are, however, basically back to normal.

I am not sure those complaining about the health:economy trade off give quite enough credit for how a successful response for the former bolsters the latter.

These stats are telling:
-Wage subsidy payment to business that have since failed: $11m
-Wage subsidy repayments by business who found the downturn actually wasn’t bad enough for them to qualify: $317m

The first stat will undoubtedly grow dramatically once the extension (effectively a subset of the most vulnerable) expires, but that is a crazy low baseline that suggests the contagion is far less acute than feared.

The wage subsidy extension expires this month, so the crunch will likely come from September onwards. It’s impossible to predict how bad (or not bad) it might be for both job losses and business failures.

See Unemployment statistics for June quarter 2020

Newshub/Reid Research poll July 2020

The latest Newshub/Reid Research poll is great for Labour and terrible for National. which isn’t a surprise after what has happened over the last two weeks.

Greens are just hanging on ov er the threshold, NZ First is still well down in danger territory and ACT will be happy but are not picking up all the support National is shedding.

  • Labour 60.9% (up 4.4)
  • National 25.1% (down 5.5)
  • Greens 5.7% (up 0.2)
  • ACT Party 3.3% (up 1.5)
  • NZ First 2.0% (down 0.7)
  • New Conservatives 0.9% (down 0.1)
  • Maori Party 0.4% (down 0.5)
  • TOP 0.4% (up 0.3)

Newshub: The destruction of National under Judith Collins as party sinks to 25 percent

That’s a stupid but typical headline.

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 62% (up 2.5)
  • Judith Collins 14.6% (up 11.5)
  • Simon Bridges 5.5%

Collins is higher than Bridges ever got but still nowhere near challenging Ardern, who looks untouchable at the moment.

Jacinda Ardern still soaring as preferred Prime Minister – but Judith Collins is convinced she’ll win

The latest Newshub-Reid Research Poll was conducted between 16-24 July 2020. One thousand people were surveyed, 700 by telephone including both landlines and mobiles and 300 by internet panel. It has a margin of error of 3.1 percent.

Jacinda Ardern:

  • Performing well 85.3%
  • Performing poorly 8.2%

It would take a miracle to stop Ardern (aka Labour) from romping in this election. The only query seems to be at this stage whether they will be able to form a government on their own or not.

Judith Collins:

  • Performing well 39.5%
  • Performing poorly 30.8%

Last poll Bridges 21.6% thought bridges was performing well and 59.5% thought he was performing poorly. Collins is doing much better than thatt but National MPs have let the party down badly.

This is grim for Collins but National has had a series of crises that can’t be blamed on her. Bridges was doing badly, Todd Muller made things worse.

Newshub poll – NAT 45.2%, LAB 24.1%

The latest (July 2017) Newshub/Reid Research poll has National into tricky territory, needing more than their current partners to get back in.

But most of the talk is about Labour diving, with three recent polls having them at 24.1% (Reid Research), 24% (Colmar Brunton) and 23% (UMR internal poll).

  • National 45.2% (down from 47.4)
  • Labour 24.1% (down from 26.6)
  • Greens 13.0% (up from 12.5)
  • NZ First 13.0% (up from 9.4)
  • The Opportunities Party 2.0% (up from 0.8)
  • Maori Party 1.2% (up from 0.7)
  • ACT Party 0.5% (down from 0.9)
  • United Future 0.2% (down from 0.3)

There is no escaping a dire situation for Labour and for Andrew Little.

A different balance between Greens and NZ First to the Colmar Brunton poll, with them level pegging here.

TOP will be happy to be on the rise but still a long way off the 5% threshold.

The Maori Party are in the vicinity of what they need to keep two seats.

ACT are failing to make an impact.

ReidResearch2012-2017

Preferred Prime Minister:

The Newshub-Reid Research poll was conducted July 20-28. 1000 people were surveyed, 750 by telephone and 250 by internet panel. It has a margin of error of 3.1 percent.

National 43% in latest RM poll

National are back down to 43% in the latest Roy Morgan poll, similar to the 42% in the UMR poll covering a similar period – see Part of a UMR poll. However NZ First are on 8%, in contrast to their 14% in the UMR poll.

This poll was taken after all the Todd Barclay publicity (which continues), after the Labour intern issue broke but as it emerged (so it won’t have fully impacted), and before this week’s flare up between Greens and NZ First.

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” 

  • National 43% (Jan  46, Feb 48, Mar 43.5, Apr 43, May 43, Jun 46.5)
  • Labour 30.5% (Jan 27, Feb 26, Mar 29.5, Apr 29.5, May 28.5, Jun 25.5)
  • Greens 13.5% (Jan 12.5, Feb 13, Mar 14.5, Apr 13, May 14, Jun 14)
  • NZ First 8% (Jan 9, Feb 8, Mar 7.5, Apr 10.5, May 10, Jun 9)
  • Maori Party 1.5% (Jan 2, Feb 2, Mar 2, Apr 1, May 1.5, Jun 1.5)
  • ACT Party 1% (Jan 0.5, Feb 1, Mar 0.5, Apr 1.5, May 1, Jun 1)
  • United Future 0% (no change)
  • Conservatives 0% (no change)
  • Mana Party 0% (down from 0.5)
  • Internet Party 0% (no change)
  • Other 2.5% (Jan 2, Feb 2, Mar 1, Apr 1, May 1.5, Jun 2)

Of all electors surveyed 8.5% (up 2%) didn’t name a party.

This was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone – with a NZ wide cross-section of 868 electors during June 26 – July 9, 2017.

This leaves National and current support parties well short of a majority, on about the same level of support as Labour + Greens.

NZ First are in a position of choice, but Greens and NZ First showed their incompatibility this week.

RoyMorgan2017-July

Polling was done between June 26 and July 9.

 

 

The actual Colmar Brunton poll results

One News has developed a habit of publishing partial rounded poll results, and then a few days later Colmar Brunton posts the actual details online, which are much more useful.

One News Colmar Brunton poll 1-5 July 2017 – ‘which party would you vote for?’

ColmarBruntonParty2017July

Trends for the party vote:

ColmarBruntonPartyChart2017July

And ‘preferred Prime Minister’:

ColmarBruntonPM2017July

That poll was taken well before the Green-NZ First flare up that started on Sunday continued into today.

 

 

 

More bad poll news for Labour

The July Fairfax/IPSOS is out this morning and while it has a slight improvement for Labour they are only up to 24.9%.

There are some variations to the Roy Morgan moll that came out yesterday.

  • National 54.8% (down 1.7, Roy Morgan 51)
  • Labour 24.9% (up 1.7, Roy Morgan 23.5)
  • Greens 12.4% (up 0.5, Roy Morgan 15.0)
  • NZ First 2.6% (down 0.6, Roy Morgan 6.0)
  • Conservative 1.3% (up 0.4, Roy Morgan 1.0)
  • Mana 1.2% (no change, Roy Morgan Internet-Mana 1.5)
  • Maori Party 0.9% (up 0.2, Roy Morgan 1.0)
  • United Future 0.2% (up 0.2, Roy Morgan 0.5)
  • ACT 0.1% (down 0.6, Roy Morgan 0.5)

Tracey Watkins comments on the poll in Could National lose the unloseable?

The number of National voters contacted by our pollsters has not markedly changed since our last poll in June – the real movement is among Labour-leaning voters, who appear to have become a highly volatile bunch at this point in the electoral cycle.

And in the Stuff poll report National holds on to huge lead:

Today’s poll, which follows Labour’s recent election-year congress and a series of targeted announcements on education policy, shows more decided voters, with Labour clearly benefiting from the change.

But 15.3 per cent of voters still don’t know who they will vote for.

Analysis of other polls has indicated similar patterns of stable support for National and volatile support for Labour. Much may depend on whether support firms up for Labour in the poll that matters or if it deserts them.

And much may also depend on late swings to small parties, which can be a lottery for opportunists. There’s a big difference in results for NZ First and a notable difference for Greens between these two polls.

 

Click here for full graphics.

Roy Morgan results.