Newshub/Reid Research poll

The latest (June 2017) Newshub/Reid Research poll:

  • National 47.4% (up from 47.1)
  • Labour 26.4% (down from 30.6)
  • Greens 12.5% (up from 11.2)
  • NZ First 9.4% (up from 7.6)

Everybody will be happy enough with that three months out from the election, except for Labour.

Newshub is promoting:

But NZ First has been higher in other polls.

That doesn’t look flash for Labour either. It’s the lowest Little has been in a Newshub/RR poll.

Newshub’s headline:  Labour crumbles, falling towards defeat

Their last poll was in March: Newshub poll – Ardern surges

1 News-Colmar Brunton poll June 2017

The latest 1 News-Colmar Brunton poll:

  • National 49% (up from 46)
  • Labour 30% (no change)
  • Greens 9% (down from 11)
  • NZ First 9% (up from 8)
  • Maori Party 1% (down from 4)
  • ACT 1% (no change)
  • TOP 1% (up from 0)
  • Undecided 12%
  • Refused to answer 4%

Field work conducted 27-31 May.

Labour+Greens at 39% is 10% behind National alone, that’s another game changer that doesn’t seem to have changed much at this stage.

Labour+Greens+NZ First at 48% is marginally behind National.

There could be a post-budget bounce here for National but Labour and Greens will be worried and/or frustrated.

TOP will be happy to at least have registered but this isn’t as good for them as the recent (but unproven) Listener poll.

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Bill English 29% (up from 26)
  • Andrew Little 8% (up from 7)
  • Winston Peters 7% (down from 9)
  • Jacinda Ardern 6%

English has gone up, Little also but barely. The Ardern bubble seems to have burst a bit.

Are the budget tax changes good for the country?

  • Yes 44%
  • No 30%
  • Don’t know 16%
  • Haven’t heard about them 10%

Colmar Brunton in 2014:

2014 Colmar Brunton polls for National:

  • 22–26 March 2014 – 47%
  • 17–21 May 2014 – 51%
  • 21–25 June 2014 – 50%
  • 19–23 July 2014 – 52%
  • 9–13 August 2014 – 50%
  • 23–27 August 2014 – 48%
  • 30 August – 3 September 2014 – 50%
  • 13–17 September 2014 – 45%

Election result: 47.04%

Labour:

  • 22–26 March 2014 – 31%
  • 17–21 May 2014 – 30%
  • 21–25 June 2014 – 29%
  • 19–23 July 2014 – 28%
  • 9–13 August 2014 – 26%
  • 23–27 August 2014 – 28%
  • 30 August – 3 September 2014 – 25%
  • 13–17 September 2014 – 25%

Election result: 25.13%

Listener political poll

The Listener has a political poll:

ListenerPoll2017June

The Adjusted column is closer to other political polls which exclude undecided in their main results.

Adjusted is quite similar to other recent polls except that Labour is down a bit and Greens are up a bit. Together they total just 40%.

Gareth Morgan was promoting this poll for obvious reasons – TOP seem to be getting some traction.

The same base numbers with a Listener readers’ poll as well.

 

Online only is different to the other main public political polls, which still do telephone polling.