Business failure rates down

Defying some predictions (similar to the unemployment rate), business failures are down through June and July. How much of that is due to the financial support packages is unknown.

We’re still in the middle of a wild global economic storm, and things will get worse. But no one expected us to actually eradicate covid, and our points of comparison are scant. The economy is doing vastly better than anyone anticipated.

Business are bracing, and have made significant layoffs and reduced hours, but the feared wave of company collapses hasn’t yet made even the hint of an appearance. Sectors unexposed to border closures are, however, basically back to normal.

I am not sure those complaining about the health:economy trade off give quite enough credit for how a successful response for the former bolsters the latter.

These stats are telling:
-Wage subsidy payment to business that have since failed: $11m
-Wage subsidy repayments by business who found the downturn actually wasn’t bad enough for them to qualify: $317m

The first stat will undoubtedly grow dramatically once the extension (effectively a subset of the most vulnerable) expires, but that is a crazy low baseline that suggests the contagion is far less acute than feared.

The wage subsidy extension expires this month, so the crunch will likely come from September onwards. It’s impossible to predict how bad (or not bad) it might be for both job losses and business failures.

See Unemployment statistics for June quarter 2020

Warmest June On Record

June Climate Summary – Warmest June On Record
Wednesday, 2 July 2014, 4:56 pm
Press Release: NIWA

NIWA is today officially announcing that New Zealanders have just experienced the warmest June since records began in 1909.

The June Climate Summary…
Highlights include:
• An exceptionally warm start to winter
• Dozens of climate stations placed in the top four for warmest June ever recorded
• Nationwide average temperature in June 2014 was 10.3°C surpassing the previous record for warmest June in 2003.
• There have now been nine Junes since 1909 where the departure from average has been greater than 1.0°C.
• Of those 9 instances, 5 have occurred since the year 2000 and 8 since the year 1970.

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/SC1407/S00007/june-climate-summary-warmest-june-on-record.htm

Here in Dunedin temperatures have plummeted today but June had seemed abnormally mild. Daffodils coming up, fruit trees starting to blossom, unseasonal buds and flowers all over the place. They might get knocked back a bit now but if winter hasn’t hit properly until July it doesn’t feel like it will be a hard or a long one.

Brief Summary

Full summary: Climate_Summary_June_2014.docx

Latest One News poll comes into line

The latest One News Colmar-Brunton poll, the second since the election, comes into line with other recent polls like Roy Morgan.

April 2012 June 2012
National 51 47
Labour 29 33
Green Party 11 13
NZ First 3 2
Maori Party 1 1
Act 1 1
Mana 1 1

That’s the same level of support that national got in the election.

And compared to a recent Roy Morgan poll:

Colmar Brunton Roy Morgan
National 47 44
Labour 33 30.5
Green Party 13 13.5
NZ First 2 5
Maori Party 1 2
Act 1 1
Mana 1 1

So there’s nothing remarkable about this result.