The latest Roy Morgan poll has National down 2.5% and Labour up a tad, and NZ First up 3%.
- National 46% (down 2.5)
- Labour 28% (up 1)
- Greens 14% (up 0.5)
- NZ First 9% (up 3)
- Maori Party 1% (no change)
- ACT 1% (up 0.5)
- UnitedFuture 0% (no change)
- Conservative Party 0.5% (down 0.5)
- Mana Party 0.5% (no change)
- Independent/Others 0% (down 1)
Margin of error a bit over 3.2 at 50%, 1.9 at 10% (861 surveyed, 8% didn’t name a party.
The polling periods would have been up to last Sunday so won’t have been affected by Andrew Little’s stumbling this week, so a worrying lack of traction with possibly worse to come for Labour unless they find a way of turning things around.
National’s drop may concern them a bit but they been lower (down to 43) in the middle of last year and were 47% in January’s poll.
NZ First continue to surprise with higher than usual mid-term poll support, this is the highest they have been on Roy Morgan since the election in 2014.
Greens look to be benefiting from Labour languishing.
Results for the top four parties since the 2014 election:
| National | Labour | Greens | NZ First | ||
| 2016 | |||||
| February 29 – March 13, 2016 |
46 |
28 |
14 |
9 |
|
| February 1-14, 2016 |
48.5 |
27 |
14.5 |
6 |
|
| January 4-17, 2016 |
47 |
27.5 |
14 |
6.5 |
|
| 2015 | |||||
| November 23 – December 6, 2015 |
49 |
28.5 |
13 |
6 |
|
| October 26 – November 8, 2015 |
49 |
29.5 |
12 |
6 |
|
| September 28 – October 11, 2015 |
50 |
29 |
11.5 |
6.5 |
|
| August 31 – September 13, 2015 |
44.5 |
31 |
15 |
5.5 |
|
| August 3-16, 2015 |
50.5 |
27 |
11 |
8 |
|
| June 29 – July 12, 2015 |
43 |
32 |
13 |
7 |
|
| June 8-21, 2015 |
49.5 |
26 |
13 |
6.5 |
|
| May 4-17, 2015 |
54 |
25.5 |
10.5 |
6 |
|
| April 6-19, 2015 |
45.5 |
27.5 |
13.5 |
8.5 |
|
| March 2-15, 2015 |
46.5 |
31 |
11 |
6 |
|
| February 2-15, 2015 |
49 |
30 |
12 |
6 |
|
| January 5-18, 2015 |
52 |
26 |
11 |
6 |
|
| 2014 | |||||
| November 24 – December 7, 2014 |
46 |
27 |
12 |
7 |
|
| October 27-November 9, 2014 |
49.5 |
24 |
14.5 |
6.5 |
|
| September 29-October 12, 2014 |
43.5 |
22.5 |
17.5 |
7 |
