RM poll – National down

The latest Roy Morgan poll has National down 2.5% and Labour up a tad, and NZ First up 3%.

  • National 46% (down 2.5)
  • Labour 28% (up 1)
  • Greens 14% (up 0.5)
  • NZ First 9% (up 3)
  • Maori Party 1% (no change)
  • ACT 1% (up 0.5)
  • UnitedFuture 0% (no change)
  • Conservative Party 0.5% (down 0.5)
  • Mana Party 0.5% (no change)
  • Independent/Others 0% (down 1)

Margin of error a bit over 3.2 at 50%, 1.9 at 10% (861 surveyed, 8% didn’t name a party.

The polling periods would have been up to last Sunday so won’t have been affected by Andrew Little’s stumbling this week, so a worrying lack of traction with possibly worse to come for Labour unless they find a way of turning things around.

National’s drop may concern them a bit but they been lower (down to 43) in the middle of last year and were 47% in January’s poll.

NZ First continue to surprise with higher than usual mid-term poll support, this is the highest they have been on Roy Morgan since the election in 2014.

Greens look to be benefiting from Labour languishing.

RoyMorgan2016March

Results for the top four parties since the 2014 election:

  National Labour Greens NZ First
2016
February 29 – March 13, 2016

46

28

14

9

February 1-14, 2016

48.5

27

14.5

6

January 4-17, 2016

47

27.5

14

6.5

2015
November 23 – December 6, 2015

49

28.5

13

6

October 26 – November 8, 2015

49

29.5

12

6

September 28 – October 11, 2015

50

29

11.5

6.5

August 31 – September 13, 2015

44.5

31

15

5.5

August 3-16, 2015

50.5

27

11

8

June 29 – July 12, 2015

43

32

13

7

June 8-21, 2015

49.5

26

13

6.5

May 4-17, 2015

54

25.5

10.5

6

April 6-19, 2015

45.5

27.5

13.5

8.5

March 2-15, 2015

46.5

31

11

6

February 2-15, 2015

49

30

12

6

January 5-18, 2015

52

26

11

6

2014
November 24 – December 7, 2014

46

27

12

7

October 27-November 9, 2014

49.5

24

14.5

6.5

September 29-October 12, 2014

43.5

22.5

17.5

7

 

http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6715-roy-morgan-new-zealand-voting-intention-march-2016-201603180507

 

Dairy slump continues

There’s no sign of recovery for dairy prices with another drop in auction prices overnight.

15 March 2016 auction result:

DairyAuctionMar2016

10 year trends:

DairyAuction10yrtrendMar2016

Tough times continue.