Fairfax/IPSOS poll demoralising for Labour

The May 2014 Fairfax/IPSOS poll must be demoralising for Labour. Theoretically National should be suffering but they have only dropped a little to 47.6% but Labour have dropped 2.3 to 29.5% in a continung trend downwards.

  • National 47.6% (-1.8)
  • Labour 29.5% (-2.3)
  • Greens 12.7% (+2.7)
  • NZ First 3.7% (+0.1)
  • Maori Party 1.9% (+0.8)
  • Conservative Party 1.6% (-0.4)
  • ACT Party 0.9% (+0.3)
  • Mana Party 0.5% (+0.2)
  • United Future 0.1% (no change)

Labour should also be concerned about David Cunliffe’s drop in Preferred Prime Minister:

  • John Key 48.6% (-1.0)
  • David Cunliffe 13.4% (-3.9)
  • Winston Peters 3.4% (+0.6)
  • Russel Norman 1.8% (+0.2)
  • Metiria Turei 0.3% (-0.8)

The poll was conducted between May 10 and May 12, surveying 1011 people by telephone. It has a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3 per cent. Percentages are based on the 826 decided voters who intend to vote. Those who are undecided or do not intend to vote are excluded.

Fairfax IPSOS Party poll results

Stuff: National-has-no-need-to-pull-rabbits-out-of-hat

Poll bad for National, still not flash for Labour

National has dropped drastically to 42.5% in the latest Roy Morgan poll and although Labour have recovered they are still only 31%.

  • National 42.5% (down 6)
  • Labour 31.0% (up 2.5)
  • Greens 14.5 (up 3)
  • NZ First 6.0% (up 0.5)
  • Internet Party 1.5% (up 0.5%)
  • Maori Party 1 (unchanged)
  • Mana Party 1.0% (unchanged)
  • ACT NZ 0.5% ( unchanged)
  • United Future 0.5% (up 0.5)
  • Conservative Party 0.5% (down 1.5%).

The electorate does not seem very happy with the major parties.Bad for National, a bit of a bounce back for Labour but still not flash for them. The public don’t seem happy with either major party, Labour still – 33% has been their highest this year in the first poll of the year, and National again – two polls ago in March they were 43%, then up to 48.5 and now down to 42.5%.

The smaller parties benefit except for Conservatives.

A couple of interesting totals:

Labour 31  compared to Green+NZ First+Mana 21.5
If you add Internet Party that’s 31 to 24.

It would be interesting if they had an option “Pissed off with all”.

 

Roy Morgan 2 May 2014

Electors were asked:
“If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Pollon voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 847 electors from April 21–May 4, 2014. Of all electors surveyed 6% (up 1%) didn’t name a party.

Source (PDF)