Roy Morgan poll – Labour 56.5%, National 26.5%

Roy Morgan stopped publishing monthly polls in New Zealand after the 2017 election but they have started again, and the news remains grim for National.

This is the first poll they have published this year but they have previous month comparisons – their detailed results show polling each month this year.

If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”

  • Labour 56.5% (January 40%, March 42.5%, April 55%)
  • National 26.5% (January 40%, March 37 %, April 30.5%)
  • Greens 7% (January 10.5%, March 11.5%, April 7%)
  • NZ First 2.5% (January 7.2%, March 3%, April 2.5%)
  • ACT Party 3.5% (January 0.5%, March 3.5%, April 2.5%)
  • Maori Party 1.5% (April 1.5%)
  • The Opportunities Party 1% (April 0.5%)

Labour is very similar to recent Colmar Brunton and Reid Research results, but Natiional has trended down a bit more. This is their lowest result for a long time.

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is at a very high 158.5 in May, down 4.5pts from the record high of 163 reached in April

76% of New Zealand electors (down 1% since April) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to only 17.5% (up 3.5%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a NZ wide cross-section of 894 electors during April 27 – May 24, 2020. Of all electors surveyed 5.5% (down 0.5%) didn’t name a party.

While this result doesn’t look good for new national leader Todd Muller, it is too soon to tell what effect he has had on National’s popularity – the polling period was to 24 May and Muller only took over on 22 May.