The November Roy Morgan poll has National on 49.5%, very similar to their recent Colmar Brunton result, but Labour has slumped to 23%, the lowest they have been since just after the 2014 election.
Greens have picked up a bit of Labour’s loss but combined they are on just 37.5% so their MoU looks like being a bad move (and this is backed by news reports that Labour members are deserting because of it).
- National 49.5% (up from 48)
- Labour 23% (down from 26.5)
- Greens 14.5% (up from 11.5)
- NZ First 8% (down from 10)
- Maori Party 1.5% (no change)
- Act Party 1% (up from 0.5)
- United Future 0.5% (up from o)
- Conservative Party 0.5% (up from 0)
- Mana Party 0% (no change)
- Internet Party 0 (down from 0.5)
- Other 1.5% (no change)
Polling from 7-20 November.
Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 858 electors in November 2016. Of all electors surveyed 6.5% (unchanged) didn’t name a party.
Remember that like any poll this is just an approximate indication of past preferences. Roy Morgan polls have tended to vary quite a bit – but there’s probably a lot of soft and shifting support at the moment.
National are ending the year at the higher end of their recent range.
Labour look dire, and Labour+Greens looks to be a failure that will be difficult to undo, they are committed until the election with their Memorandum of Understanding (or they will get rubbished if they dump it).
Greens have been on 14% or 14.5% in seven of this year’s Roy Morgan polls.
It’s interesting to see that NZ First haven’t benefited from Labour’s slide, despite Winston’s efforts to jump on the Trump bandwagon.
- Report http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/7061-roy-morgan-new-zealand-voting-intention-november-2016-201611301845
- Poll details http://www.roymorgan.com/morganpoll/new-zealand/voting-intention-summary