Labour slump in Roy Morgan poll

The November Roy Morgan poll has National on 49.5%, very similar to their recent Colmar Brunton result, but Labour has slumped to 23%, the lowest they have been since just after the 2014 election.

Greens have picked up a bit of Labour’s loss but combined they are on just 37.5% so their MoU looks like being a bad move (and this is backed by news reports that Labour members are deserting because of it).

  • National 49.5% (up from 48)
  • Labour 23% (down from 26.5)
  • Greens 14.5% (up from 11.5)
  • NZ First 8% (down from 10)
  • Maori Party 1.5% (no change)
  • Act Party 1% (up from 0.5)
  • United Future 0.5% (up from o)
  • Conservative Party 0.5% (up from 0)
  • Mana Party 0% (no change)
  • Internet Party 0 (down from 0.5)
  • Other 1.5% (no change)

Polling from 7-20 November.

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 858 electors in November 2016. Of all electors surveyed 6.5% (unchanged) didn’t name a party.

Remember that like any poll this is just an approximate indication of past preferences. Roy Morgan polls have tended to vary quite a bit – but there’s probably a lot of soft and shifting support at the moment.

National are ending the year at the higher end of their recent range.

Labour look dire, and Labour+Greens looks to be a failure that will be difficult to undo, they are committed until the election with their Memorandum of Understanding (or they will get rubbished if they dump it).

Greens have been on 14% or 14.5% in seven of this year’s Roy Morgan polls.

It’s interesting to see that NZ First haven’t benefited from Labour’s slide, despite Winston’s efforts to jump on the Trump bandwagon.

roymorgan2016nov

 

Preferred Prime Minister

I don’t think the ‘Preferred Prime Minister’ polls prove very much but as John Key has shrunk further to 36% in the latest 1 News/Colmar Brunton poll it may be of a bit of interest to look at more details.

  • John Key 36%
  • Andrew Little 8%
  • Winston Peters 8%

Looking further back:

colmarpreferrednov2016

Key jumped when he became National leader in 2007 and climbed from there through to 2012. Since then he declined quite a bit and levelled off for three years but is dipping again. But his last six results (back to October 2015) are barely out of margin of error variance:

  • 40%, 40%, 39%, 39%, 38%, 36%

However Andrew Little has never risen to any extent. His last six results

  • 8%, 9%, 7%, 7%, 10%, 8%

Others ‘preferred’ in the latest poll:

  • Don’t know 34%
  • Other 3%
  • None 2%
  • Refused 1%
  • Jacinda Ardern 1%
  • Metiria Turei 1%
  • Phil Goff 1%

Goff is now mayor of Auckland. Ardern is hardly knocking on the leadership door.

  • Grant Robertson 0.5%
  • Te Ururoa Flavell 0.4%
  • Helen Clark 0.3%
  • James Shaw 0.3%
  • Peter Dunne 0.3% (first time included over the last year)
  • Annette King 0.2%
  • Paula Bennett 0.2%

Bennett is the best of the National alternatives.

  • Tariana Turei 0.2%
  • Shane Jones 0.1%

Neither of them have been MPs for years.

  • Gerry Brownlee 0.1%
  • Gareth Morgan 0.1%
  • David Shearer 0.1%
  • Stephen Joyce 0.1%

0.1% is 1 respondent out of the 1,010 eligible voters asked.

Click to access Preliminary_ONE-News-Colmar-Brunton-Poll-report-Nov-12-13-21-23.pdf

 

 

1 News poll

The latest 1 News Colmar Brunton poll:

  • National 50% (up from 48)
  • Labour 28% (up from 26)
  • Greens 11% (down from 13)
  • NZ First 10% (down from 11)
  • Maori Party 1% (down from 1.8)
  • Conservative Party 0.2% (down from 0.3)
  • Act Party 0% (down from 0.5)
  • United Future 0% (no change)

Very good for National. Not so good for Labour because, while they went up 2% Greens dropped 2 so Labour+Greens remain on 39%.

This isn’t a good position for Labour to be in going into the holiday break.

colmarbruntonnov2016

Preferred Prime Minister maybe shows the Brexit/Trump effect, everyone is less preferred:

  • John Key 36% (down from 38)
  • Andrew Little 8% (down from 10)
  • Winston Peters 8% (down from 11)

Polling of 1010 eligible New Zealand voters was split between Saturday 12-Sunday 13 and Monday 21-Wednesday 23 November (fieldwork was disrupted by the earthquakes).

http://www.colmarbrunton.co.nz/news/political-polls/