Roy Morgan post-election poll

The first post-election poll is from Roy Morgan:

  • National 46%
  • Labour 31%
  • Greens 11%
  • NZ First 6.5%
  • TOP 2.0%
  • Maori Party 1.5%
  • ACT Party 0.5%

It’s a bit surprising to see Labour down 5% from their election result, and Greens up 5% on  their’s

Combined totals:

  • Labour+Greens 42%
  • Labour+NZ First 37.5%
  • Labour+Greens+NZ First 48.5%

The polling period was 25 September to 8 October, so straight after the election but before Winston Peters chose tenable a government with Labour and Greens.

Of course these results don’t matter but they are of a little bit of interest to see how the public views the parties after the election.

Election results since MMP started plus polls before and after this election:

RoyMorgan1996-2017Elections

http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/7379-roy-morgan-new-zealand-voting-intention-october-2017-201710270443

 

 

 

One News/Colmar Brunton poll

The latest One News/Colmar Brunton poll results don’t mean much as movements have been nil or small:

  • National 47% (no change)
  • Labour 31% (down 1)
  • Greens 12% (no change)
  • NZ First 9% (up 2)
  • Maori Party 0.8% (down 0.4)
  • Conservative 0.4% (up 0.3)
  • ACT 0.2% (up 0.1)
  • Mana 0% (down 0.2)
  • United Future 0%
  • Refused to answer 3% (down 1)
  • Undecided 9% (up 2)

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • John Key 40% (no change)
  • Andrew Little 8% (down 2)
  • Winston Peters 8% (up 2)
  • Jacinda Ardern 3%

They said that David Shearer bottomed out at 10% and David Cunliffe bottomed out at 8%.

They interviewed Little who said he was doing all right getting around and meeting people. He couldn’t say much else.

Poling period Saturday 10 – Wednesday 14 October 2015.

Summary.

Click here to download the ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll repot, or read more at the TVNZ politics page.

National up, Labour/Green down in October Roy Morgan poll

In the volatile Roy Morgan poll National are up 5% and Labour + Greens down 5.5% in their October poll.  The Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement was announced about half way through the polling period but it doesn’t cover this week when Labour’s abysmal TPPA positioning became apparent.

  • National 50% (up 5)
  • Labour 29% (down 2)
  • Greens 11.5% (down 3.5)
  • NZ First 6.5% (up 1)
  • Maori Party 0.5% (down 1)
  • ACT  0.5% (unchanged)
  • Conservative Party 0.5% (down 0.5)
  • Internet-Mana 0.5% (unchanged)
  • United Future 0% (down 0.5)
  • Independent/others 1% (up 1)

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 882 electors in October 2015. Of all electors surveyed 7% (down 1%) didn’t name a party.

RoyMorgan2015-10

Details: National support jumps in October with signing of Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and leads potential Labour/Greens alliance

First post election poll

Roy Morgan has resumed polling. Results are less significant than usual.

  • National 43.5% (down 3.54% since the election)
  • Maori Party 2% (up 0.68%)
  • Act NZ 0.5% (down 0.19%)
  • United Future 0.5% (up 0.28%)
  • Labour Party 22.5% (down 2.63%)
  • Greens 17.5% (up 6.8%)
  • NZ First 7% (down 1.66%)
  • Conservative Party 5% (up 1.03%
  • Internet-Mana Party 1% (down 0.42%)
  • Independent/ Others 0.5% (down 0.35%

Roy Morgan says ” National support has dropped after each of John Key’s Election victories” and it won’t worry them too much at this stage of the election cycle.

Labour will be hoping that their leadership contest will raise their profile and win some support back.

Greens and Conservatives may be rueful that the poll wasn’t reflected in the election result, otherwise there is nothing remarkable.

Poll compared to election results this century:

RoyMorgan2014-10-17 tableChart of results since the 2011 election.

RoyMorgan2014-10-17 chart

Roy Morgan results.