Little change in latest 1 News/Colmar Brunton poll

The latest Colmar Brunton polling was done this week (10-14 October) and with regular recent polling gives us the best idea of support levels and trends, but one of the most notable aspects is there is little change from their last poll.

It clearly confirmed that National+ACT are a long way from challenging, with their combined total 39% – on last night’s debate Judith Collins looked worn out and her body language conceded a demoralising defeat, while Jacinda Ardern looked happy and positive (most of the time).

  • Labour Party: 46% (down 1%)
  • National Party: 31% (down 1%)
  • ACT: 8% (no change)
  • Green Party: 8% (up 2%)
  • New Zealand First: 3% (up 1%)
  • New Conservative: 2% (up 1%)
  • The Opportunities Party: 1% (down 1%)
  • Advance New Zealand: 1% (no change)
  • Māori Party: 1% (up 1%)
  • Don’t know: 7% (down 1%)
  • Refused: 8% (up 3%)

The movements are insignificant, apart perhaps from the Green rise.

Labour is borderline for being able to rule with a majority. It depends on how many small party wasted votes there are – on these numbers about 8% will fail to reach the threshold so 46% is about half of the votes that will count.

It’s really annoying that 1 News only publish results rounded to the nearest whole number (about two days after 1 News publish Colmar Brunton posts more accurate results). This can distort movements of the smaller parties in their news coverage.

NZ First up 1% may look promising for them, but they apparently rose from 2.4% to 2.7%, which statistically is an insignificant change.

It’s worth looking at the last four Colmar Brunton results for the main parties. They have polled weekly 17-21 September, 23-27 September, 3-7 October and 10-14 October.

  • Labour 48, 47, 47, 46
  • National 31, 33, 32, 31
  • ACT 7, 8, 8, 8
  • Greens 6, 7, 6, 8
  • NZ First 2.4, 1.4, 2.4, 2.7

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 55% (up 5%)
  • Judith Collins 20% (down 3%
  • David Seymour 3% (up 1%)
  • Winston Peters 1%

That suggests the Ardern versus Collins aspect of the campaign has worked better for Ardern.

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/1-news-colmar-brunton-poll-labour-maintains-strong-lead-over-national-greens-climb

About 1.7 million votes have already been cast, which is half the total enrolled of 3,436,178

https://elections.nz/stats-and-research/enrolment-statistics/enrolment-by-general-electorate?name=all

1 News Colmar Brunton poll – little change

A 1 News/Colmar Brunton poll (with the previous two polls from 17-21 September and 23-27 September in brackets):

  • Labour 47% (48, 47)
  • National 32% (31, 33)
  • ACT 8% (7, 8)
  • Greens 6% (6, 7)
  • NZ First 2.4% (2.4, 1.4)
  • TOP 2% (1.1, 1.0)
  • New Conservatives 1% (1.6, 1.4)
  • Advance NZ 1% (0.8, 0.6)
  • Maori Party 0.2 (0.9, 0.8)

Polling period 3-7 October 2020.

Very little change there from two weeks ago. Party support seems to have set in with little moving it.

National+Act on 40% still well short of challenging Labour or Labour+Greens.

Greens look ok but will still be worried about the threshold, especially if they underperform polling as they have done in some elections. And Labour may stop them picking up as many overseas votes.

NZ First still look to have failed to fire this time. Today’s news of the NZ First foundation in court again won’t help.

New Conservatives claimed to be polling around 4 but no published poll comes anywhere near that.

Advance NZ aren’t \making much progress.

Don’t know or refused 13% (up 2) – but these tend to not change the numbers much.

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 50% (54, 54)
  • Judith Collins 23% (20, 23)
  • David Seymour 2% (2, 2)
  • Winston Peters 1% (2, 1)

Don’t know or refused 17% (up 3).

Up to yesterday 478,860 people had already voted.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2020_New_Zealand_general_election

There is a small party debate on TV1 tonight from 7-8pm, not sure why it is shorter than the two leader debates with more leaders participating.

Roy Morgan post-election poll

The first post-election poll is from Roy Morgan:

  • National 46%
  • Labour 31%
  • Greens 11%
  • NZ First 6.5%
  • TOP 2.0%
  • Maori Party 1.5%
  • ACT Party 0.5%

It’s a bit surprising to see Labour down 5% from their election result, and Greens up 5% on  their’s

Combined totals:

  • Labour+Greens 42%
  • Labour+NZ First 37.5%
  • Labour+Greens+NZ First 48.5%

The polling period was 25 September to 8 October, so straight after the election but before Winston Peters chose tenable a government with Labour and Greens.

Of course these results don’t matter but they are of a little bit of interest to see how the public views the parties after the election.

Election results since MMP started plus polls before and after this election:

RoyMorgan1996-2017Elections

http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/7379-roy-morgan-new-zealand-voting-intention-october-2017-201710270443

 

 

 

One News/Colmar Brunton poll

The latest One News/Colmar Brunton poll results don’t mean much as movements have been nil or small:

  • National 47% (no change)
  • Labour 31% (down 1)
  • Greens 12% (no change)
  • NZ First 9% (up 2)
  • Maori Party 0.8% (down 0.4)
  • Conservative 0.4% (up 0.3)
  • ACT 0.2% (up 0.1)
  • Mana 0% (down 0.2)
  • United Future 0%
  • Refused to answer 3% (down 1)
  • Undecided 9% (up 2)

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • John Key 40% (no change)
  • Andrew Little 8% (down 2)
  • Winston Peters 8% (up 2)
  • Jacinda Ardern 3%

They said that David Shearer bottomed out at 10% and David Cunliffe bottomed out at 8%.

They interviewed Little who said he was doing all right getting around and meeting people. He couldn’t say much else.

Poling period Saturday 10 – Wednesday 14 October 2015.

Summary.

Click here to download the ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll repot, or read more at the TVNZ politics page.

National up, Labour/Green down in October Roy Morgan poll

In the volatile Roy Morgan poll National are up 5% and Labour + Greens down 5.5% in their October poll.  The Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement was announced about half way through the polling period but it doesn’t cover this week when Labour’s abysmal TPPA positioning became apparent.

  • National 50% (up 5)
  • Labour 29% (down 2)
  • Greens 11.5% (down 3.5)
  • NZ First 6.5% (up 1)
  • Maori Party 0.5% (down 1)
  • ACT  0.5% (unchanged)
  • Conservative Party 0.5% (down 0.5)
  • Internet-Mana 0.5% (unchanged)
  • United Future 0% (down 0.5)
  • Independent/others 1% (up 1)

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 882 electors in October 2015. Of all electors surveyed 7% (down 1%) didn’t name a party.

RoyMorgan2015-10

Details: National support jumps in October with signing of Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and leads potential Labour/Greens alliance

First post election poll

Roy Morgan has resumed polling. Results are less significant than usual.

  • National 43.5% (down 3.54% since the election)
  • Maori Party 2% (up 0.68%)
  • Act NZ 0.5% (down 0.19%)
  • United Future 0.5% (up 0.28%)
  • Labour Party 22.5% (down 2.63%)
  • Greens 17.5% (up 6.8%)
  • NZ First 7% (down 1.66%)
  • Conservative Party 5% (up 1.03%
  • Internet-Mana Party 1% (down 0.42%)
  • Independent/ Others 0.5% (down 0.35%

Roy Morgan says ” National support has dropped after each of John Key’s Election victories” and it won’t worry them too much at this stage of the election cycle.

Labour will be hoping that their leadership contest will raise their profile and win some support back.

Greens and Conservatives may be rueful that the poll wasn’t reflected in the election result, otherwise there is nothing remarkable.

Poll compared to election results this century:

RoyMorgan2014-10-17 tableChart of results since the 2011 election.

RoyMorgan2014-10-17 chart

Roy Morgan results.