National have announced their party list for the 2020 election in September. There is nothing remarkable about it. The top 20 are fairly similar to their current rankings.
| 1 | Judith Collins | Papakura |
| 2 | Gerry Brownlee | Ilam |
| 3 | Paul Goldsmith | Epsom |
| 4 | Simon Bridges | Tauranga |
| 5 | Dr Shane Reti | Whangarei |
| 6 | Todd McClay | Rotorua |
| 7 | Chris Bishop | Hutt South |
| 8 | Todd Muller | Bay of Plenty |
| 9 | Louise Upston | Taupo |
| 10 | Scott Simpson | Coromandel |
| 11 | David Bennett | Hamilton East |
| 12 | Michael Woodhouse | Dunedin |
| 13 | Nicola Willis | Wellington Central |
| 14 | Jacqui Dean | Waitaki |
| 15 | Mark Mitchell | Whangaparaoa |
| 16 | Melissa Lee | Mt Albert |
| 17 | Andrew Bayly | Port Waikato |
| 18 | Dr Nick Smith | Nelson |
| 19 | Maureen Pugh | West Coast-Tasman |
| 20 | Barbara Kuriger | Taranaki-King Country |
| 21 | Harete Hipango | Whanganui |
| 22 | Jonathan Young | New Plymouth |
| 23 | Tim Macindoe | Hamilton West |
| 24 | Kanwaljit Singh Bakshi | Panmure-Otahuhu |
| 25 | Paulo Garcia | List |
| 26 | Nancy Lu | List |
| 27 | Dr Parmjeet Parmar | Mt Roskill |
| 28 | Agnes Loheni | Mangere |
| 29 | Dale Stephens | Christchurch Central |
| 30 | Alfred Ngaro | Te Atatu |
| 31 | Matt Doocey | Waimakariri |
| 32 | Stuart Smith | Kaikoura |
| 33 | Lawrence Yule | Tukituki |
| 34 | Denise Lee | Maungakiekie |
| 35 | Simon O’Connor | Tamaki |
| 36 | Brett Hudson | Ohariu |
| 37 | Simeon Brown | Pakuranga |
| 38 | Ian McKelvie | Rangitikei |
| 39 | Erica Stanford | East Coast Bays |
| 40 | Matt King | Northland |
| 41 | Chris Penk | Kaipara ki Mahurangi |
| 42 | Tim van de Molen | Waikato |
| 43 | Dan Bidois | Northcote |
| 44 | Jo Hayes | Mana |
| 45 | Katie Nimon | Napier |
| 46 | Catherine Chu | Banks Peninsula |
| 47 | Hamish Campbell | Wigram |
| 48 | David Patterson | Rongotai |
| 49 | Lisa Whyte | New Lynn |
| 50 | Rima Nakhle | Takanini |
| 51 | Liam Kernaghan | Taieri |
| 52 | Bala Beeram | Kelston |
| 53 | Lincoln Platt | Christchurch East |
| 54 | William Wood | Palmerston North |
| 55 | Nuwi Samarakone | Manurewa |
| 56 | Mark Crofskey | Remutaka |
| 57 | Jake Bezzant | Upper Harbour |
| 58 | Mike Butterick | Wairarapa |
| 59 | Tim Costley | Otaki |
| 60 | Nicola Grigg | Selwyn |
| 61 | Christopher Luxon | Botany |
| 62 | Joseph Mooney | Southland |
| 63 | Penny Simmonds | Invercargill |
| 64 | Tania Tapsell | East Coast |
| 65 | Simon Watts | North Shore |
| 66 | TBC | Auckland Central |
| 67 | TBC | Rangitata |
| 68 | Adrienne Pierce | List |
| 69 | Senthuran Arulanantham | List |
| 70 | Sang Cho | List |
| 71 | Rachel Afeaki-Taumoepeau | List |
| 72 | Trish Collett | List |
| 73 | Ava Neal | List |
| 74 | Katrina Bungard | List |
| 75 | Shelley Pilkington | List |
Most list candidates and quite a few electorate candidates will be struggling to get in unless National’s support improves support markedly. An on polling National will do well to get half of that list into Parliament.
This term they got 56 MPs elected with 44.45% of the vote, but recent public polling ranged from 25-32%.
On current polling a number of candidates have no show of getting in unless they win their electorates.
Interesting to see Chris Luxon at 61. He is sometimes toured as a leaderr of the future, but after the Muller experience future caucuses should be cautious about parachuting in someone with little political or political media experience.
RNZ Leader interviews: Judith Collins – ‘I’m always very confident, particularly when I know I’m right’
Collins is still shy of a month into the job but in her media blitz she and her arched eyebrows are everywhere, along with the party slogan “Strong team, More Jobs, Better Economy”.
Is the tagline “strong team” verging on the comedic though, when you look back at the past few horror months for National: a rolling maul of resignations, sackings and leadership changes?
“Look at our front bench. Look at it,” Collins says in defence.
Stuff: National Party announces list of MPs and candidates for upcoming election
On National’s current polling, many of the party’s existing MPs could lose their seat in Parliament. MPs Alfred Ngaro and Jo Hayes appear to be at particular risk after being ranked down the list.
Two candidates – Nancy Lu and Dale Stephens – have entered the list above existing MPs. Lu, a high-flying accountant who was born in China, has been parachuted into 26 on the list.
National Party president Peter Goodfellow said that Lu had been placed so high on the list because she had the capabilities the party was looking for.
Collins said many of the promising new candidates in safe seats, such as Luxon, had been grouped together down the list.
Ngaro, who is running against Labour minister Phil Twyford in Te Atatū, has dropped from number 19 in the caucus list, to 30 on the list – the only MP to drop from the top 20.
“Alfred has a seat to win, and it is important that we also have renewal,” Collins said.
That’s hardly a vote of confidence in Ngaro. He was 3,180 votes behind Twyford last election. Twyford has been poor as a minister but should benefit from Labour riding high.
Most people will know little to nothing about most candidates on the list. Elections are won and lost on leadership and the top handful of known MPs and candidates.
