The latest Roy Morgan poll is out – summary here.
Te Reo Putake shows how to spin a poll at The Standard in Roy Morgan August; Nat’s Down 7%
The National Party have a dropped a massive 7%, though to be fair that probably just reflects the folks at RM tweaking their methodology so they don’t get laughed at again.
If the folks at Roy Morgan read TRP’s ‘analysis’ of their poll they would be the ones laughing.
Just about everyone, including folks at The Standard, expected National wouldn’t stay at last months unusually high 53%.
Labour’s support stays at 25.5% (unchanged), Greens 14.5% (up 3%) and NZ First 9.5% (up 2.5%).
TRP ignores Labour being unchanged at 25.5% – that’s an awful result for his party.
If Andrew Little can stitch up a coalition deal with Winston, they’ll have a comfortable majority in the next parliament.
If Labour can stitch up a deal with both NZ First and Greens – which with these results would put them about even (24%) with Labour. Labour would barely have a majority in a coalition and would only have about quarter of the seats in Parliament.
This poll continues the overall trend of the three opposition parties being in touching distance of a win (if they cooperate) and National not having enough oomph to get over the line without help from their pet poodles.
Would Peters enable a Labour led Government when Labour are only on 25%, compared to National in the mid forties?
They’ll be desperate now to make sure that the Maori Party and Peter Dunne make it back.
I read that as ‘Labour will be desperate to make sure that the Maori Party and Peter Dunne don’t make it back in’.
However, with the Labour/Green understanding in place, it’s likely that Labour will win all the maori seats, and Ohariu, leaving National 4-6 seats shy of a win.
The Labour/Green Memorandum of Understanding was aimed at trying to get Labour+Greens big enough to form a government with few or no other seats required. That means Labour need to be much closer to 35% than 25%, something TRP seems to be ignoring.
Andrew Little was very disparaging of the Maori Party on Waatea 5th estate last night – see Waatea 5th Estate – Labour v NZ First. With the Maori King dumping support for them Labour may have a fight on their hands keeping their Maori seats, let alone taking Flavell’s off him.
A dose of reality in comments from billmurray:
te reo uptake, You need to get a grip, Labour down to 25.5% is a disaster and as a supporter you need to start telling the truth about the 25.5%, what it really means is only 26 people out of 100 eligible voters think that Labour should be occupying the government benches, 74 people say they should not.
Or of course it could be a rogue poll!!!!!!!. I could say LOL at this point but this is a serious matter and we must be truthful with ourselves or we face ridicule at the election.
Something is seriously wrong that we are not attracting voters or getting traction over the housing problem, or am I the only one who believes that to be the case?.
Something is seriously wrong with Labour, and pretending it isn’t is not just spin, it’s denial.
Labour’s vote at 25.5% is unchanged in this poll, billmurray. The significant mover is National.
Unchanged at rock bottom – Labour dropped below polls to a record low 25.1 % last election – can’t be glossed over.
I noted in the post that, really, this poll just re-aligns Roy Morgan with reality.
His emphasis was a ‘massive drop’ for National while ignoring that Labour had already dropped and were stuck at the bottom of their range.
It’s all about the coalition and while Peters is no fan of the Greens, I don’t think that’s an insurmountable obstacle.
Nothing is insurmountable with Winston, especially if NZ First gets 15% (that looks feasible) to Labour’s 20-25% (also feasible).
My gut feeling is that Peters wants to be the guy that brings Key down. Sweet revenge for costing him 3 years in the wilderness in 2008.
Wishful thinking, which is about all TRP can do on these numbers. Does Winston want to prop Andrew Little up?
But, whatever happens, on these numbers, control of forming the next Government is out of Key’s hands.
Much could happen to the numbers over the next year.
But on these numbers Key would be likely to have a major say in the forming of the next Government, possibly without needing Winston still.
If control was out of Key’s hands on 46% how much control would Little have on 25.5%? Even if he could cobble together a coalition his control of Government would be precarious.
Te Reo Putake’s ignoring of poll reality may or may not be intentional, but it’s symptomatic of how out of touch Labour has become.