Labour’s internal poll

Following advice from Labour chief Andrew Little’s acting chief of staff Andrew Little, acting chief press officer Andrew Little has revealed the private Labour poll that Little swears by, in contrast to Little’s lack of confidence in Colmar Brunton’s latest public poll.

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This shows Labour within the range they have been in polls for months, albeit higher than the 26% in Colmar’s latest.

It also has National on the lowest poll result for eight years. No wonder Little wanted this to be true.

But it is just one poll. And in making a big issue out of yesterday’s poll Little has probably done himself any PR favours. His press secretary has let him down.

 

Immigration poll – One News

Deciding immigration numbers and policy by public opinion is a bit crazy but One News Colmar Brunton have a poll on it.

Despite all the adverse publicity about immigration and a move against it a majority still think that immigration numbers are about right or we should have more.

Do you think the Government should let fewer immigrants in, let more in or is the number about right?

  • Fewer migrants in 38% (up from 27%)
  • Numbers about right 44% (down from 51%
  • More migrants in 13% (down from 18%)

As immigration and related issues like housing, employment, work visas and international students is quite complex and most people are unlikely to know much about how they interrelate in detail this poll is quite simplistic.

I don’t think the Government will be very worried about the result.

For some as yet unexplained reason One News are holding back the party part of their poll back for tomorrow night.

Dwindling support for Monarchy

A poll commissioned by New Zealand Republic suggests that support for a monarchy is falling significantly.

 

  • The next British Monarch becomes King of New Zealand 34%
  • New Zealand has a New Zealander as Head of State elected by a two thirds majority in Parliament 15%
  • New Zealand has a New Zealander as Head of State who is elected by the popular vote 44%

 

There was no poll option for no head of state above our current Prime Minister.

Support for a New Zealand head of State amongst younger people (aged 18-30) was 76%, and for those 61 and over it was 53%.

Newshub reported Monarchists not amused by poll backing republic

Monarchists are brushing off a new poll which suggests New Zealand is heading towards becoming a republic, instead saying it’s unlikely to happen in the next 500 years.

“I’m a little sceptical of these numbers,” Monarchy New Zealand’s Sean Palmer told Paul Henry on Monday.

“This was a poll that was paid for and conducted by Republicans – I’m a bit surprised they didn’t find 120 percent in support of a republic.”

The poll was carried out by David Farrar’s Curia Research – Farrar is a promoter of a New Zealand Republic – but that’s lame.

April 2014 – What is your preference for New Zealand’s next Head of State out of the following three options?

  • The next British Monarch becomes King of New Zealand 46%
  • New Zealand has a New Zealander as Head of State elected by a two thirds majority in Parliament 11%
  • New Zealand has a New Zealander as Head of State who is elected by the popular vote 33%

Support for a New Zealand head of State amongst younger people (aged 18-30) was 66%

Source: Scoop – Latest Poll: Support for NZ head of state is up

Spinning a poll

The latest Roy Morgan poll is out – summary here.

Te Reo Putake shows how to spin a poll at The Standard in Roy Morgan August; Nat’s Down 7%

The National Party have a dropped a massive 7%, though to be fair that probably just reflects the folks at RM tweaking their methodology so they don’t get laughed at again.

If the folks at Roy Morgan read TRP’s ‘analysis’ of their poll they would be the ones laughing.

Just about everyone, including folks at The Standard, expected National wouldn’t stay at last months unusually high 53%.

Labour’s support stays at 25.5% (unchanged), Greens 14.5% (up 3%) and NZ First 9.5% (up 2.5%).

TRP ignores Labour being unchanged at 25.5% – that’s an awful result for his party.

If Andrew Little can stitch up a coalition deal with Winston, they’ll have a comfortable majority in the next parliament.

If Labour can stitch up a deal with both NZ First and Greens – which with these results would put them about even (24%) with Labour. Labour would barely have a majority in a coalition and would only have about quarter of the seats in Parliament.

This poll continues the overall trend of the three opposition parties being in touching distance of a win (if they cooperate) and National not having enough oomph to get over the line without help from their pet poodles.

Would Peters enable a Labour led Government when Labour are only on 25%, compared to National in the mid forties?

They’ll be desperate now to make sure that the Maori Party and Peter Dunne make it back.

I read that as ‘Labour will be desperate to make sure that the Maori Party and Peter Dunne don’t make it back in’.

However, with the Labour/Green understanding in place, it’s likely that Labour will win all the maori seats, and Ohariu, leaving National 4-6 seats shy of a win.

The Labour/Green Memorandum of Understanding was aimed at trying to get Labour+Greens big enough to form a government with few or no other seats required. That means Labour need to be much closer to 35% than 25%, something TRP seems to be ignoring.

Andrew Little was very disparaging of the Maori Party on Waatea 5th estate last night – see Waatea 5th Estate – Labour v NZ First. With the Maori King dumping support for them Labour may have a fight on their hands keeping their Maori seats, let alone taking Flavell’s off him.

A dose of reality in comments from billmurray:

te reo uptake, You need to get a grip, Labour down to 25.5% is a disaster and as a supporter you need to start telling the truth about the 25.5%, what it really means is only 26 people out of 100 eligible voters think that Labour should be occupying the government benches, 74 people say they should not.
Or of course it could be a rogue poll!!!!!!!. I could say LOL at this point but this is a serious matter and we must be truthful with ourselves or we face ridicule at the election.

Something is seriously wrong that we are not attracting voters or getting traction over the housing problem, or am I the only one who believes that to be the case?.

Something is seriously wrong with Labour, and pretending it isn’t is not just spin, it’s denial.

TRP responded:

Labour’s vote at 25.5% is unchanged in this poll, billmurray. The significant mover is National.

Unchanged at rock bottom – Labour dropped below polls to a record low 25.1 % last election – can’t be glossed over.

I noted in the post that, really, this poll just re-aligns Roy Morgan with reality.

His emphasis was a ‘massive drop’ for National while ignoring that Labour had already dropped and were stuck at the bottom of their range.

It’s all about the coalition and while Peters is no fan of the Greens, I don’t think that’s an insurmountable obstacle.

Nothing is insurmountable with Winston, especially if NZ First gets 15% (that looks feasible) to Labour’s 20-25% (also feasible).

My gut feeling is that Peters wants to be the guy that brings Key down. Sweet revenge for costing him 3 years in the wilderness in 2008.

Wishful thinking, which is about all TRP can do on these numbers. Does Winston want to prop Andrew Little up?

But, whatever happens, on these numbers, control of forming the next Government is out of Key’s hands.

Much could happen to the numbers over the next year.

But on these numbers Key would be likely to have a major say in the forming of the next Government, possibly without needing Winston still.

If control was out of Key’s hands on 46% how much control would Little have on 25.5%? Even if he could cobble together a coalition his control of Government would be precarious.

Te Reo Putake’s ignoring of poll reality may or may not be intentional, but it’s symptomatic of how out of touch Labour has become.

Another Auckland housing poll

Polling on house prices seems to be in fashion. Following the release of UMR poll details on housing – see Poll on house prices (no party poll release this time) – The Spinoff has also asked some housing questions via SSI.

Background:

The median house price in Auckland has jumped by 85% over the last four years, with the average home now costing roughly 10 times the average household income. The corresponding figure before 1990 was around four times median income.

“Have you in the last two years considered moving away from Auckland because of house prices?”

  • Yes 32.2%
  • No, but it’s a good idea 36.3%
  • No 31.5%

Some of those will be thinking of looking for somewhere with more affordable housing so they can buy their first home, while others who already have homes will be wanting to take advantage of their surge in value with a view to buying a cheaper and perhaps better house elsewhere.

Obviously employment will be a major factor – many won’t be able to move away from their jobs.

“Do you think we have a housing crisis in Auckland?”

  • Yes 84%
  • No 10.3%
  • Don’t know 5.7%

I find the obsession with media and opposition parties to dramatically label things is a bit pointless.

A crisis “is any event that is, or is expected to lead to, an unstable and dangerous situation affecting an individual, group, community, or whole society”.

If the media and opposition had chosen to promote a different label then it would probably have rated highly when they polled on it.

“Why do you think we have a housing crisis?”

  • Foreign investors 55.7%
  • Government inaction 39.6%
  • Developers + speculators 38.5%
  • Incompetent Auckland council 28.8%
  • Selfish NIMBY baby boomers 9.1%
  • Over cautious Reserve Bank 7.8%
  • Ungrateful spendthrift Millenials 3.9%
  • Too much immigration 3.3%

Multiple responses were allowed. There is no ‘Other’.

This probably reflects more on media coverage over the past few months than anything. Is there any way of telling how close to reality it is?

It’s interesting that immigration barely rates.

Poll details:

Survey Sampling International (SSI) conducted an online survey among a representative sample of 760 Auckland residents aged 18 and over with quota applied to gender, age and region within Auckland. All respondents were screened to ensure they were New Zealand residents and eligible to vote. The polling period was 17-19 August and the margin of error is +/- 3.6%.

More polling and commentary at The Spinoff – One in three Aucklanders has recently considered quitting Auckland because of house prices – poll

 

Poll on house prices

According to Hive News UMR released a poll on housing yesterday, but I can’t find anything about it at UMR, only at Hive News and other websites that refer to Hive. So I’ll extract what I can from Hive News Tuesday: Poll finds 60% Aucklanders want lower house prices;

Nationwide (964 respondents) prefer house prices to:

  • to fall but not too much 37%
  • to fall dramatically 26%
  • keep rising at a slower pace 10%
  • keep rising rapidly 4%

Home owners wanted house prices:

 

  • to fall but not too much 40%
  • to fall dramatically 15%
  • rise at a slower pace 13%
  • rise rapidly 2%

 

Aucklanders:

  • wanted house prices to keep rising rapidly 4%
  • wanted house prices to rise at a slower pace 13%
  • prefer that house prices either fell a bit or fell dramatically over the next year 60%

They also asked if respondents thought there was a housing crisis:

  • Yes 81%
  • No 14%
  • Unsure 5%

I think these are the numbers but can’t guarantee I have sorted out the Hive jumble.

The poll of 1,000 New Zealanders over the age of 18 was taken from July 29 to August 17 through UMR’s online omnibus survey. There were 633 home owners and 331 Aucklanders who took the poll. UMR conducts polls for Labour.

The young vote in the US

A lot of young people in the US are not happy with the current political system and what it delivers. Many of them are also not happy with the two major party choices in the presidential  election.

Bernie Sanders got a lot of his support from the younger age group. This demographic now has the dilemma of whether to punish Hillary in the polling booths, or doing what they can to keep Donald Trump out.

There could be a rise in support for other candidates – there are others standing for president but it’s hard to tell what impact this will have on the end result.

Alternet: Are Young Voters Sick of the Two-Party System?

As the reality of a “binary choice” between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump becomes all too clear, a large portion of young voters are rejecting the two-party system that has long dominated the U.S. political scene.

According to a poll by GenForward, only 28 percent of people in the crucial 18-30 demographic agree that the “two major parties do a good job of representing the American people.”

The future looks even bleaker for the Republicans: more than two-thirds of young voters—and especially young minority voters—say the Grand Old Party does not care about them. (First step to fix this, I humbly submit: choose a more subtle, less ageist nickname.)

Comparatively, support among millennials is much stronger for the Democratic Party. Fifty-three percent of young Americans say Democrats care about the issues important to them. According to a USA Today poll, about half of young people surveyed identify as Democrats or Democratic-leaning.

Bernie gave many of them hope for something radically different, but Clinton, the establishment candidate, got the nomination.

“It’s hard to overemphasize how completely and utterly Sen. Bernie Sanders dominated the youth vote to this point in the 2016 presidential campaign,” the Washington Post reported in June. “In the 2016 campaign, Sanders won more votes among those under age 30 than the two presumptive major-party presidential nominees combined. And it wasn’t close.”

A 2014 Pew study found that people born after 1980, “are more racially diverse and socially liberal than any other age group,” the New York Times reports. And while millennials tend to agree the Democratic Party is generally more in line with their liberal values, “40 percent of those in this age group say they are politically independent.”

That’s a lot of potential swing voters. Their problem this year is the poor choices they have for major party candidates.

Among those early supporters of a Sanders presidency and progressive platform, a July poll by the Hill found almost half were considering supporting a third-party candidate in lieu of Clinton.

That could easily make the difference – between votes for Clinton and Trump.

The Economic Times: Majority of US young adults reject Donald Trump: Poll

Despite US Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump’s strategy of patching together a bipartisan coalition by appealing to the millions of young supporters of former Democratic candidate Bernie Sanders, a new poll found that his populist play had so far failed among millennials.

The latest USA Today/Rock the Vote poll released on Sunday found that while 56 per cent of voters under 35 say they would vote for Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton, one in five in this age .

The number of the Millennial generation, now 18-34, was estimated to be 75.4 million.

About half of all those polled (54% of Trump supporters and 51% of Clinton supporters) say they will vote to keep one candidate out rather then for the other candidate. The least worst voting option.

Yesterday I spoke with a twenty year old from Idaho, currently studying at Otago.

She said she feels embarrassed about the state of politics and the candidates on offer. She has been politically active – she didn’t say but I suspect she was one of the Sanders supporters. She will probably vote to keep Trump out, so she is similar to many who were polled.

They may have missed out getting their preferred candidate nominated this time but the young voters may be a deciding demographic if someone can tap into their determination to do things markedly different. That looks like having to wait until 2020, but by then it may take someone closer to their age group than Sanders, who I suspect won’t try again then. He turns 75 next month.

Auckland mayoral poll – two leaders

In two ways of looking at an Auckland mayoral poll there are two leaders – Phil Goff easily leads the other contenders, but ‘Don’t Know’ easily leads Goff.

But care needs to be taken with this poll – it has been done by a pollster with an unknown record and was done entirely online with none of the traditional polling being done.

The Spinoff: Exclusive: new Spinoff/SSI poll shows Phil Goff with huge lead in Auckland mayoral race

A survey commissioned for the Spinoff’s War for Auckland pop-up site puts the Labour MP well in front of his nearest rival, Vic Crone, just weeks out from voting. But many remain undecided.

Comparing the contenders (decided voters):

  • Phil Goff 60.3%
  • Victoria Crone 15.5%
  • John Palino 7.9%
  • Penny Bright 4.6%
  • Mark Thomas 3.3%
  • David Hay 2.8%
  • Other 5.6%

This is a big lead for Goff. Being the only one with well established name recognition the lead isn’t a surprise but perhaps the size of his lead is.

Crone has a huge job to try and close the large gap.

Palino stood against Brown last election so should be known, but his campaign has failed to impress since it launched.

But the numbers look a bit different when adding one significant number.

 

  • Don’t know 43.7%
  • Phil Goff 31.2%
  • Victoria Crone 8.0%
  • No intention of voting 4.6%
  • John Palino 4.1%
  • Penny Bright 2.4%
  • Mark Thomas 1.7%
  • David Hay 1.4%
  • Other 2.9%

 

Despite the large lack of certainty – about half chose none of the candidates – that is still a huge lead for Goff. As ‘don’t knows’ get to know other candidates the gap may close but this looks like it is Goff’s campaign to lose. This seems unlikely as he is likely to run a fairly bland campaign.

However the accuracy of this poll is unknown. It was conducted by am international pollster with no phone surveying done.

Survey Sampling International conducted an online survey of 760 Auckland residents 18+ with quota applied for gender, age and Auckland region. Polling took place August 17-19 and there is a margin of error of +/- 3.6%.

From the SSI website, About:

SSI is the premier global provider of data solutions and technology to drive business success.

As the premier global provider of data solutions and technology for consumer and business-to-business survey research, SSI reaches respondents in 100+ countries via Internet, telephone, mobile/wireless and mixed-access offerings.

 

Clear majority supports cannabis change

A poll commissioned by the NZ Drug Foundation on cannabis shows a clear majority supporting growing and using cannabis for medical purposes, including a majority of supporters of all of National, Labour, Greens and NZ First.

Growing or using for a medical reason like pain relief:

  • Keep illegal 16%
  • Decriminalise 16%
  • Make legal 63%

There was slightly more support fro ‘make legal’ – 66% – if a terminal illness was involved.

Results on possession for personal use are more mixed but still with a clear majority of 64% wanting change.

Possession of a small amount for personal use:

 

  • Keep illegal 34%
  • Decriminalise 31%
  • Make legal 33%

Full results:

150816cannabisonline

The poll of 1029 respondents ran from July 18 to August 2 and has a margin of error of 3.1 per cent.

However chances of change look non-existent under a National Government, even though a majority of National voters support change.

Associate Health Minister Peter Dunne has said that the Government is clear on its position – that leaf cannabis would remain illegal.

This is political speak for ‘National refuse to go there’.

And don’t expect much from Labour either. Last week Andrew Little told a student radio station that Labour could hold a referendum but later backed off that position.

Newshub: Where does Labour stand on decriminalising cannabis?

In the interview with Salient FM on Tuesday he was asked to clarify his stance.

Asked “so you will possibly have a referendum?” he replied: “Yeah, we want to make sure that there’s a good information campaign about it and have a referendum about it and let people decide.”

When asked how much of a priority it was, Mr Little said it wouldn’t be in his first 100 days.

“[It] may not even be in the first term but it would be something I’d be happy to see at some point in our term of government.”

But today he’s backpedalling.

“I’ve been very clear, it’s not a priority, I’ve got no commitment to make about it; it’s not a priority,” he told Newshub.

Would Greens force the issue with Labour? How hard Greens pushed Labour for change on cannabis law would show how serious they are. It is Green policy but tends to be ‘not a priority’ with them as well.

‘Not a priority’ is political speak for ‘we want to look like we support it but don’t want to actually do anything about it’.

 

Clinton up, Trump down in New Hampshire

A new poll in New Hampshire suggests that Democrats are generally uniting behind Hillary Clinton and are still divided over Donald Trump, 47% to 32%.

WBUR Poll: After Conventions, Clinton Up 15 Points Over Trump In New Hampshire

Our new poll (topline, crosstabs) of 609 likely New Hampshire voters, conducted July 29 through Aug. 1, shows Clinton leading Trump 47 percent to 32 percent.

Among the most important reasons Clinton has moved ahead so dramatically in this important swing state following last week’s Democratic National Convention is that Democrats are uniting around her.

“After all the hand-wringing about whether Bernie Sanders supporters would end up supporting Hillary Clinton, she’s now getting 86 percent of the Democratic vote. Donald Trump, on the other hand, has slipped a bit among Republicans. He’s now getting a bit less than two-thirds of the Republican vote.”

Another big factor: The state’s many undeclared voters favor Clinton over Trump by almost 2-1.

Adding to the significance is that Trump won decisively in the primary in February while Clinton was beaten by Bernie Sanders.

Fit to be President?

The WBUR survey found that 48 percent of likely voters say Clinton is fit to be president, 46 percent say she’s not.

That doesn’t look good for Clinton, but…

…with regard to Trump, less than a third say he’s qualified to occupy the White House and more than 60 percent say he’s not.

favorables-nh

Something that will be worrying many Republicans is the impact of Trump on their candidates for the Senate and for Congress.

The WBUR poll also found the presidential contest is having a big effect on New Hampshire’s Senate race between the incumbent Republican, Kelly Ayotte, and the Democrat, Gov. Maggie Hassan. According to the poll, Hassan now leads by 10 points in a race that could determine which party will control the Senate.

“There’s a very close relationship between the votes for Kelly Ayotte and Donald Trump,” pollster Koczela said. “Their support is sort of locked together. And with the direction that Donald Trump seems to be heading in, Kelly Ayotte’s task is to somehow decouple those two.”

That has proved difficult for Ayotte, who has put herself in the awkward position of not explicitly endorsing Trump, while saying she will support the Republican nominee in November.

Over the weekend, in a rebuke to Trump, Ayotte defended the Khan family — which prompted the Republican nominee to lash out at her.

“I don’t know Kelly Ayotte,” Trump told the Washington Post. “I know she’s given me no support — zero support — and yet I’m leading her in the polls. I’m doing very well in New Hampshire.”

But Trump is wrong about how he’s going in New Hampshire. And he has plenty of problems elsewhere as well. Media coverage is very unfavourable.

CNN: The GOP’s Donald Trump freak-out

Republicans are freaking out about Donald Trump, but the candidate himself is insisting his campaign has never been in better shape.

The GOP nominee tried to stem the growing panic — addressing the state of his campaign right at the top of his speech.

“The campaign is doing really well. It’s never been so well united. It’s the best in terms of being united since we began. We are doing incredibly well,” Trump said.

While Trump says his campaign is doing “incredibly well” the reality is quite different, with conjecture about whether he might drop out of the race.

Time: Why Donald Trump Isn’t Leaving the Race

If you only read one thing:

The GOP’s frustrations with Donald Trump are boiling into public view, as lawmakers, donors, and operatives struggle to account for the nominee’s insults and bombast.

With Clinton opening up a large lead in the polls after her successful convention—erasing and surpassing whatever bump Trump got from his own—the rumor mill is full of “maybe he’ll drop out or be replaced” talk. Here’s why you shouldn’t put any stock in it.

First off, Trump has gotten this far despite his controversial statements and attacks, and from the candidate’s perspective, this too shall pass. The election is in November, not August, and the three debates this fall will give the natural performer the chance to turn things around.

Second, there is no mechanism to remove Trump as nominee in GOP rules—he’d have to withdraw, and see #1 for why he won’t. And even if he did withdraw, the GOP would be even worse off, fighting for ballot access in almost every state for whichever sorry replacement they can muster just months before the election.

Finally, the GOP has long ago wagered the losing with Trump is better than standing up to him, which is why the #NeverTrump movement at the convention was doomed before it began. The Establishment, for the sake of party unity, strapped itself to the Trump rollercoaster and there’s no way off until the end of the ride.

It looks like being a bumpy ride, and not just for Trump.