1 News/Colmar Brunton – Greens 4%

The latest 1 News/Colmar Brunton poll:

  • National 44% (down from 47)
  • Labour 37% (up from 24)
  • Greens 4% (down from 15)
  • NZ First 10% (down from 11)
  • Opportunities Party  2% (no change)
  • Maori Party 2% (up from 1)

So National sort of hanging on, Labour way up and Greens way way down into threshold territory.

This poll was conducted 12-16 August so after the Green crisis,

The last poll was taken 22-27 July 2017, before Ardern took over and before Turei stepped down.

  • Don’t know 9%
  • Refused 4% (down from 11)

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Bill English 30% (up from 28)
  • Jacinda Ardern 30% (up from 6)
  • Winston Peters 5% (down from 10)
  • Andrew who?

These are rounded results, full results usually take a few days to become available.

 

Poll rumour worse for Greens

Steven Mills has just been talking about polls on RNZ (he’s from UMR).

He said their are rumours around that National’s tracking poll has Greens down to 4.8%.

He said that that is believable as the UMR poll with them down 7 to 8% was taken before Graham and Clendon resigned, and before Turei stepped down.

He thinks Greens should get back into Parliament, but they may be substantially smaller than they are now.

And following that James Shaw is being interviewed.

He says that it will be tough for either David Clendon or Kennedy Graham to return to the Green list now Turei has stepped down.

He said that Clendon has indicated he isn’t interested, but Graham is having discussions with the party.

Shaw says he feels he did the right thing in fully supporting Turei, and said she also had the full support of the Green caucus, but that is obviously inaccurate given that Clendon and Graham resigned in protest.

He is blaming the media for putting pressure on Turei and forcing her to step down.

Shaw says he will remain sole leader until the election and beyond, and unless something else intervenes the co-leadership won’t be addressed until the next party AGM next July. That would be extraordinary.

UMR poll

Labour’s private polling from UMR is being leaked, probably by a jubilant Labour party.

Apparently:

  • National 43% (up 1)
  • Labour 36% (up 13)
  • Greens 8% (down 7)
  • NZ First 8% (down 8)

UMR tend to be hard on National and good for Labour but taking that into account this this is quite close to tonight’s Newshub poll.

Greens have taken a hit and Labour have picked up their discarded support

Surprising to some NZ First has also dropped back but I think they had been picking up disillusioned Labour leaning voters who have been attracted back by Jacinda Ardern.

This poll gives a good indication of the impact of Ardern becoming Labour’s leader, but won’t take into account the latest upheaval in the Green Party, especially Metiria Turei announcing she will step down as co-leader and will withdraw from the Green list. She still intends standing in the Te Tai Tonga electorate at this stage.

But this is just one of two snapshot polls in a very volatile campaign environment, with the second party leader standing down in just over a week.

Expect more changes that could go in any direction for any party.

English’s credibility damaged by Barclay

It was fairly obvious Bill English’s credibility, and National Party credibility, will have taken a hit over the now long drawn out Todd Barclay issue.

This has been confirmed by a Newshub poll:  Bill English’s credibility hit by Todd Barclay saga

The latest Newshub-Reid Research poll shows Prime Minister Bill English’s credibility has taken a hit over the Todd Barclay scandal.

By party:

The Newshub-Reid Research poll was conducted July 20-28. One-thousand people were surveyed – 750 by telephone and 250 by internet panel. It has a margin of error of 3.1 percent.

This isn’t surprising. I think English handled it poorly – but he was put under extreme pressure by a sustained avalanche of media coverage. It was a big learning experience for him after managing to stay out of the spotlight for years apart from when presenting the annual budgets.

A more important question though is how much this has damaged his and National’s credibility. Do people trust him less than any other politician?

I could answer yes to ‘have I lost some trust in English’, but would how much would that influence my vote this election? That’s a much more complex question that a vague poll cannot address. Neither can I at this stage, there’s going to be many things to consider before I vote.

I could also say that I have lost trust over the media handling of the the Barclay saga.

Listener party poll

Listener polls don’t have a history so it’s difficult to judge their accuracy. They say the margin for error is +- 3% which is the same as other polls.

The way they present party vote poll is different to other polls so may be misleading so i have adjusted them so they are comparative.

  • National 45%
  • Labour 27%
  • Greens 14%
  • NZ First 9.3%
  • TOP 2.3%
  • ACT Party 1.2%

I have taken out the ‘Don’t know’ and ‘Not sure’ and scaled the rest. This is only approximate as their results are already rounded.

Polling done Tuesday 1 and Wednesday 2 of August, so as the Labour  leadership change was unfolding and before the Greens turned to custard.

This poll doesn’t really tell us much. The results look much in line with others with Labour already recovered a bit from other recent polls.

Here are the Listener results:

That includes the ‘Don’t know’ and ‘not sure’ totals which other polls don’t do so can’t be directly compared.

The Election Year Labour Leadership Snap Barometer continues our election-year research coverage. This online poll, carried out from 5pm, Tuesday, August 1 (the day of Labour’s leadership change), to 11.30am, Wednesday, August 2, canvassed 1175 New Zealanders aged 18 and over who were planning to vote in the general election. The results are weighted by age, gender and location, and the margin of error at the 95% confidence level is +/- 3.0%. See noted.co.nz.

From  Why Labour’s last-minute leadership change may be its salvation

 

Poll on Ardern

The Listener has done a poll on attitudes to Ardern:

Those results are fairly much in line with how I see things.

I don’t think her age or experience are problems at all. All party leaders and Prime Ministers (except Bill English) have no experience before they take over.

Ardern is more experienced in politics and parliament and Government than John Key was when he rose to the top.

I’m 50/50 on whether she has the skills necessary to be PM, the job requires a wide range of skills and she is untested on some of those. But initial signs look promising.

From: What male and female voters think about Jacinda Ardern – this also has party support results which are misleading, I’ll cover that in a separate post.

 

1 News Colmar Brunton poll – Labour 24%

The latest 1 News Colmar Brunton poll has Labour down to 24, and in an interview a grim looking Andrew Little said he offered to stand down but his colleagues asked him to stay – probably because no one else wants to lead a debacle.

LittleColmarStandDown

  • National 47% (no change)
  • Labour 24% (down from 27)
  • Greens 15% (up from 11)
  • NZ First 11% (no change)
  • Opportunities Party  2% (up from 1)
  • Maori Party 1% (down from 2)

This is bad for Labour. And if they keep diving Little may not get back in on the list, he is borderline at 24% depending on electorate results.

Greens will be happy to have risen but without Labour they won’t make it into Parliament. They seem to have given up on Labour and are going for whatever they can get – which is likely to be at Labour’s expense.

Interesting to see no change for NZ First.

TOP will be pleased to be on the rise.

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Bill English 28% (up from 26)
  • Winston Peters 11% (up from 11)
  • Jacinda Ardern 6% (no change)
  • Andrew Little 6% (up from 5)

These are rounded results, full results usually take a few days to become available.

This poll was taken between Saturday the 22nd and Wednesday the 27th of July.

The Turei issue was still unfolding during this period so it’s too soon to tell what the lasting effect of that will be.

 

NZ First accused of leaking UMR poll

Winston Peters has generally trashed polls as fake and meaningless, but it looks like when they suit his purposes he isn’t averse to leaking them.

Two months ago from RNZ:  Peters calls polls fake, claims he’ll win 20% of vote

RNZ’s most recent poll-of-polls had New Zealand First sitting at 8.7 percent.

But Mr Peters said the media’s polls were fake – and his own polling put his party’s support far higher – closer to 20 percent.

“I’ve got the statistical evidence to prove it, I don’t know why the media carry on with their mindset and keep on boring people witless with scenarios that are not going to happen.”

I don’t think he produced any evidence, which isn’t unusual for him.

A week ago on RNZ:  Winston Peters says polls giving him 10% are fake

New Zealand First leader says media polls giving him 10 percent are fake and he’s going to get 20% in the election.

A Colmar Brunton poll had just been published with NZ First on 11%, up 2.

Then last Friday from Newshub:  Labour’s confidential polling leaked:

Newshub has been leaked poll results from the company that does Labour’s internal polling which show it is in big trouble, two-and-a-half months out from the election.

The results show Labour is on 26 percent support – crashing from 34 percent in May.

And New Zealand First, for the first time in three years of polling, is no longer the lowest rating party.

Winston Peters and co are on 14 percent – up 5 percent since May – just overtaking the Greens who are on 13 percent.

Peters didn’t slam this poll as fake.

The company, UMR, does the polling for Labour’s inner sanctum and the results are normally kept secret from the public.

Earlier in the year Little went public with a UMR poll that wasn’t as bad as usual for Labour.

Tonight the Labour Party and UMR said the results had not yet been released to the Labour Party and the leak must have come from a corporate client who had already been provided the results.

Today: Andrew Little accuses Winston Peters of leaking poll that made Labour look bad

Andrew Little is accusing Winston Peters of leaking poll results that are damaging to the Labour Party.

“Whenever you see something that’s reported as a leak, you look at who talks about it the most,” he told Newshub.

“I’m pretty sure NZ First has UMR as a pollster, so I think the leak – in inverted commas – is more likely from New Zealand First than anybody.”

This seems to have been confirmed by Duncan Garner.

Peters didn’t deny it, he avoided ‘reacting’.

“I’ve got no reaction to that. I couldn’t give a rat’s derriere what he says,” the NZ First leader told The AM Show on Monday. He wouldn’t reveal if NZ First used UMR for its polling.

“We don’t divulge who we talk to on the issue of polling… That’s not information you’re privy to… It’s none of your business.”

Mr Peters has been talking up the poll regardless, suggesting he’ll soon have the right to call himself leader of the Opposition.

“If [Labour] go from 26 down to 22, that’s it. Andrew is not in Parliament,” Mr Peters told The Nation on Saturday. “So why would you make these statements, that he’s the next leader of the country? Or the leader of the Opposition?”

It’s not unusual for politicians to trash polls and news they don’t like and then hypocritically promote what suits their purposes.

But UMR is just one poll, a Roy Morgan poll also published last week had NZ First on 8%. Peters would probably call that fake.

Peters has usually been staunch in not predicting election outcomes. On the Nation on Saturday:

Look, you know, one thing is very important in life, and that’s this – don’t count your chickens before they hatch.

But in another break from Peters tradition, in his speech to the NZ First congress on Sunday he closed with:

“So spread the word. This time, in our 24th year, we are going to transform the electoral system and we will be most definitely the Government.”

However he hasn’t produced a poll that backs that up yet.

74% poll support for euthanasia

Colmar Brunton’s latest poll included a question about support of euthanasia.

Asked do they think a terminally ill person should be able to receive assistance from a doctor to end their life:

  • Yes 74%
  • No 18%

This is similar to previous polls, and is a strong reason why Parliament should debate the member’s bill drawn recently.

1 News:  Poll support for euthanasia a wake-up call for undecided MPs says Seymour

ACT leader David Seymour says a 1 NEWS Colmar  Brunton poll showing three quarters of respondents support voluntary euthanasia should be a wake-up call for MPs undecided about his assisted dying bill.

MPs will vote soon after the September election on Mr Seymour’s End of Life Choice bill.

Most parties will have a conscience vote and a number of MPs are yet to make up their minds.

“Too many MPs have ignored public opinion and in a democracy you do that at your peril,” Mr Seymour said.

However…

…anti-euthanasia campaigner Renee Joubert of Euthanasia-Free NZ says poll respondents “were not asked to consider the practical implications in the real world of dysfunctional relationships, domestic and elder abuse, mental health issues”.

That’s the sort of things that Parliament should debate and seek input from the public on.

I support the freedom to choose what to do with one’s own life and death so support euthanasia in general, and I strongly support Seymour’s bill passing it’s first reading so it can be properly debated in Parliament.

There are important details and safeguards to work out so I can’t say whether I would support the bill passing into law without seeing it’s final form.

National 43% in latest RM poll

National are back down to 43% in the latest Roy Morgan poll, similar to the 42% in the UMR poll covering a similar period – see Part of a UMR poll. However NZ First are on 8%, in contrast to their 14% in the UMR poll.

This poll was taken after all the Todd Barclay publicity (which continues), after the Labour intern issue broke but as it emerged (so it won’t have fully impacted), and before this week’s flare up between Greens and NZ First.

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” 

  • National 43% (Jan  46, Feb 48, Mar 43.5, Apr 43, May 43, Jun 46.5)
  • Labour 30.5% (Jan 27, Feb 26, Mar 29.5, Apr 29.5, May 28.5, Jun 25.5)
  • Greens 13.5% (Jan 12.5, Feb 13, Mar 14.5, Apr 13, May 14, Jun 14)
  • NZ First 8% (Jan 9, Feb 8, Mar 7.5, Apr 10.5, May 10, Jun 9)
  • Maori Party 1.5% (Jan 2, Feb 2, Mar 2, Apr 1, May 1.5, Jun 1.5)
  • ACT Party 1% (Jan 0.5, Feb 1, Mar 0.5, Apr 1.5, May 1, Jun 1)
  • United Future 0% (no change)
  • Conservatives 0% (no change)
  • Mana Party 0% (down from 0.5)
  • Internet Party 0% (no change)
  • Other 2.5% (Jan 2, Feb 2, Mar 1, Apr 1, May 1.5, Jun 2)

Of all electors surveyed 8.5% (up 2%) didn’t name a party.

This was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone – with a NZ wide cross-section of 868 electors during June 26 – July 9, 2017.

This leaves National and current support parties well short of a majority, on about the same level of support as Labour + Greens.

NZ First are in a position of choice, but Greens and NZ First showed their incompatibility this week.

RoyMorgan2017-July

Polling was done between June 26 and July 9.