Greens scoff at National+Green option.

In their latest poll Newshub did the usual pointless prediction of possible governing numbers (an election has never been decided on a media poll):

These two alternatives presume two major things:

  • That NZ First will not make the threshold – predicting the political demise of NZF and Winston Peters has been proven wrong many times over the years.
  • That Greens would consider a coalition with National over Labour.

It was made very clear during the last term, and especially during coalition negotiations last year, that Greens did not see National as an option for them.

Greens have virtually said that unless National adopts all the Green Party policies then they won’t consider any political alliance (this is ironic given the number of compromises Greens have made with Labour and especially with NZ First, but that’s another story).

This was reiterated by Green party member Matthew Whitehead at The Standard in Pollwatch: Reid Research, 27/05/2018

There is zero chance, despite what Newshub implies, that the Greens will even look at today’s National Party as a valid coalition partner. You would need 75% of Green delegates at our AGM to agree to even consider a coalition deal from them, and the perception that we could do so tends to hurt us in polling. Implying such a deal would even be considered is pretty mischievious.

John Hart, who was 12 on the Green list for 2017 and was expected to become an MP until the Green’s crashed a month before the election, tweeted:

@farmgeek So ACT isn’t included in the Labour/Greens numbers because that would be ridiculous right? And yet lumping Greens in with National…

@StewartLundNZ I think the point was to show that without the Greens, National has no shot at getting back in. But labour would only need the Greens – no need for Act’s seat

@farmgeek That’s cool, but I’d prefer they stick with reality-based scenarios.

@MJWhitehead  Yeah, the correct thing to do here would just be to show NACT at 59 because that coalition ain’t happening with National looking anything like it does today.

@ConanMcKegg Really trying to push that Blue Greens narrative still. I’d have thought that would have died by now.

Gahhhhhhhhh — what part of the Greens will never ever be in govt with National do media not get !? P o l i c y s – light years apart.

I haven’t seen anyone in Greens suggest that going with national in any way was a possibility. They look fully committed to Labour or bust.

Interestingly I can see no poll reaction from @NZGreens, jamespeshaw or @maramadavidson – actually they have been veryu quiet on everything over the weekend.

But that won’t change the apparent impossibility of a National+Green option.

What now for Bridges?

There had already been murmurings in media about Simon Bridges leadership of National before the latest poll (Newshub/Reid Research) had him at 9% ‘preferred Prime Minister’.

Newshub headlined their poll with Simon Bridges failing to connect with voters – Newshub poll and the l4esd paragraph was worse:

A Newshub-Reid Research poll has brought some seriously bad news for Simon Bridges.

Mr Bridges, who has now been in the role three months to the day, has earned just 9 percent of the vote in the preferred Prime Minister stakes – the lowest result for a National leader in over a decade.

The poll, which is the first to be conducted since the new Labour-led Government’s first Budget, suggests his status as leader of the Opposition is failing to get any real traction with voters.

This is despite National support holding up on 45.1% to Labour’s 42.6%.

And also as has been murmured lately, Judith Collins got a promotion: Judith Collins makes surprising appearance in preferred Prime Minister poll

Prime Minister Judith Collins – how do those four words strung together make you feel? For 3.7 percent of New Zealanders, it feels pretty good.

Because for the first time ever, Ms Collins has registered in our Newshub-Reid Research poll as a candidate for preferred Prime Minister.

However, Ms Collins is ranking higher than Ms Ardern did when she first appeared as a preferred Prime Minister in 2015. Back then, Ms Ardern debuted at 3.5 percent.

But this is dire news for the actual leader of the National Party, Simon Bridges – his preferred Prime Minister ranking is just 9 percent.

I’m not sure how 9% is dire but 3.5% is somehow seen as an ominous appearance in the poll.

What should Bridges do about this poll? Nothing except continue on his two and a half year strategy. As one person put it, “his listening tour now is classic first year opposition stuff”. Travelling the country meeting as many people as possible is relatively low profile, but an essential in creating credibility and support.

I don’t think an election has ever been lost on a ‘preferred Prime Minister’ poll this far out from an election.

Jacinda Ardern peaked at 4.2% in 2016, and was averaging about 6% for the first half of 2017, suddenly spiking to 26% in early August, 6 weeks before the election.

There’s no reason Bridges can’t do something similar (unless he continues to look like a damp squib) if National are still near or ahead of Labour in the all important party poll, especially if NZ First look like they do now, out of contention, and if Greens look shaky again.

Neither James Shaw or Marama Davidson rated at all in the ‘Preferred prime Minister’ poll – Shaw got 0.4% with Colmar Brunton in December and February, but his absence in this poll means nothing about Green prospects.

Winston Peters got 4.6% in the latest poll, about average for him since the election, and he is going to be acting Prime Minister soon.

We have no idea how Jacinda Ardern’s popularity will track over the next two years. She may or may not even lead Labour next election. And that isn’t what is important anyway.

Bridges should carry on with his strategy and hope that he finds a formula that connects him with voters. More importantly National as a whole need to continue to look like a credible alternative.

Media will keep posting pointless poll stories – they use polls to create news, not to give a non-emotional balanced indicator of a snapshot of public opinion that is very minor in the whole scheme of things.

The opposition will continue to talk up doubts over National’s leadership.

The niche blog Whale Oil will continue it’s primary role as a political activist, talking up Collins and trying to trash Bridges. That’s been their modus operandi – promoting Collins and trashing Key/English/Bridges – for years. But 3.5% is a long way from suggesting their is wide support for Collins, even within National.

And WO’s toxic association with Collins will make things difficult for her – if she still has leadership ambitions. She is probably the most prominent and effective Opposition MP  at the moment, but it’s not uncommon for a non-leader to be the primary attack weapon of a party.

All this poll does is create a flurry of speculative comment, until the next poll. And there’s going to be many more of them before the election.

It’s not unusual for many people to prefer the current Prime Minister to be the Prime Minister – but Ardern’s 40%, well short of a majority, shows that it means little.

It is almost certain that National would suffer in the polls if they switched leaders every time media made a headline out of a single number. Labour struggled for eight years and ten months in Opposition, and their revolving door leadership was a significant part of that.

Bridges has far more important things to work on then ‘preferred PM’ polls that mean very little under MMP.

Newshub/Reid Research poll – May 2018

The first poll since the budget, from Newshub/Reid Research:

  • National 45.1% (up 0.6%)
  • Labour 42.6% (up 0.3%)
  • Greens 5.7% (down 0.3%)
  • NZ First 2.4% (down 1.2%)

ACT, Maori Party and The Opportunities Party were not mentioned.

The only movement that is statistically significant is the drop for NZ First.

National and Labour will be happy their support is holding up – perhaps surprisingly for National given the amount of publicity Jacinda Ardern has had internationally recently and with her pregnancy, and how much attention Labour got out of last week’s budget.

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 40.2%
  • Simon Bridges 9.0%
  • Winston Peters 4.6%
  • Judith Collins 3.7%

Not surprising to see Ardern well ahead. Bridges is struggling be be seen or liked.  Support of Peters is waning ahead of him becoming acting Prime Minister soon.

Judith Collins makes her debut – she has been the most prominent and effective Opposition MP, and liked by some in the National Party.

39% said Peters would ‘do well’ in the top job.

Newshub stories:

Trump administration low on ethics

A Gallup poll rates the Trump administration the lowest on ethics of an administration since polling on ethics began in the 1980s.

Overall, how would you rate the ethical standards of top Trump administration officials — as excellent, good, not good or poor?

  • Excellent 7%
  • Good 30%
  • TOTAL FAVOURABLE 37%
  • Not good 19%
  • Poor 40%
  • TOTAL UNFAVOURABLE 59%

Gallup: Trump Administration Officials Get Low Marks on Ethics

  • Lowest administration ethics rating Gallup has measured
  • Contrary to typical pattern, Trump job approval exceeds ethics rating
  • May 1-10 Gallup poll.

With Trump approval ratings averaging on the low forties that suggests that some people don’t care  much about ethics.

Past poll results:

The only other president below 50% was Bill Clinton and he recovered significantly.

Despite wedding media mania majority still prefer NZ head of state

A poll done by Curia Research for NZ republic shows little change in support for a New Zealand head of state versus the monarchy.

  • Would like an elected head of state 45%
  • Would like a head of state selected by Parliament 11%
  • TOTAL for NZ head of state 56%
  • Next head of state to be a British monarch 38%

The poll was conducted last week during widespread royal wedding coverage. It had 930 respondents, margin of error of 3.2%.

Trend for NZ head of state:

  • 44% June 2014)
  • 47% (April 2015)
  • 59% (August 2016)
  • 56% (May 2018)

NZH: All the best to Harry and Meghan, but a Kiwi head of state still preferred, survey shows

“The latest poll results show support for the next head of state to be a New Zealander is still in the majority, 18 percentage points clear of support for the British Monarch” a campaign spokesman said.

Support for a republic was favoured by more than half of all age groups except those in the 61 and older bracket, where support dipped to 49 per cent. However, even in that case the number was higher than support for continuing the monarchy, with 46 per cent in favour and 5 per cent undecided.

However, Sean Palmer from Monarchy New Zealand said it was misleading to combine responses favouring a Kiwi head of state.

Those who wanted a democratically elected head of state might favour continuing the monarchy over Parliament deciding and visa versa, he said.

Calling the republic campaigners “out of touch”, Palmer said republicanism was an out of date, 20th-century idea.

“We live in a modern interconnected world that’s constantly shrinking.”

“When I’m speaking to young people, that’s the thing they’re concerned with – how is New Zealand going to fit into the modern world.”

Recent attention to Prince Harry and Meghan Markle’s wedding and the joy in New Zealand at Prince Louis’ birth showed interest in the Windsors was anything but waning, Palmer argued.

That’s media attention. It is no indication of general public opinion.

“There is no indication of New Zealanders losing their interest or association with the monarchy.”

The poll suggests otherwise. Palmer did not back his claims with any other poll data.

National leadership poll (sort of interesting but out of date)

A public poll on the National leadership is of limited value, because the leader is chosen by National’s 56 MPs only, and the poll was conducted before the leadership contest began. But it is a bit interesting, especially National supporter results.

The Spinoff Exclusive: Poll gives Judith Collins slim lead as preferred National leader

A UMR Research survey puts the polarising MP in the lead – but only slightly, and her favourability numbers are dismal, an area in which Amy Adams holds bragging rights.

The tussle to lead the biggest party in New Zealand’s parliament will be a tight one, if polling conducted largely prior to Bill English’s resignation and exclusively revealed to the Spinoff is a guide. Of the declared candidates, Judith Collins can boast the greatest support as preferred National Party leader, both among National voters and the wider public, though her lead over Steven Joyce is statistically negligible.

Not surprising to see so many ‘unsure’. The poll is split over eight MPs with a third ‘unsure’.

Notable that Mark Mitchell doesn’t feature, but that’s not surprising because the poll was almost entirely before Bill English announced he was stepping down, so before any candidates put their names forward.

Favourability ratings are also pertinent:

Collins is slightly behind Adams on favourability, but has twice the unfavourability with about half respondents seeing her unfavourably.

UMR Research, whose clients include the Labour Party, returned the results from its nationwide online omnibus survey, conducted between January 30 and February 14 (Bill English resigned on February 13). A nationally representative sample of 1,000 New Zealanders 18 years of age and over are surveyed. The margin of error for sample size of 750 for a 50% figure at the 95% confidence level is ± 3.1%.

The margin of error for National supporters will be much higher.

Labour jump in Colmar poll

Labour have jumped up to 48% in the latest 1 News/Colmar Brunton poll. National has slipped a bit with Greens and NZ First struggling.

  • Labour 48% (up 9)
  • National 43% (down 3)
  • Greens 5% (down 2)
  • NZ First 3% (down 2)
  • Maori Party 1%
  • TOP 1%

That will shake up the parties and pundits. It’s not a big drop for National but they will be worried about a downward direction with English stepping down, but it’s a major bump for Labour, at the expense of their partner parties in Government.

Ardern is up 4 to 41% in preferred Prime Minister, Bill English dropped but is irrelevant now in polls.

Newshub poll – National and Labour close, NZF slump

A typically misleading headline from Newshub on their first political poll of the year: Labour soars to popularity not seen for a decade

According to the latest Newshub-Reid Research poll, Labour’s polling is at its highest level since 2007…

That might be correct for a Newshub/Reid Research poll, if their polling methods hadn’t changed in ten years and they have allowed for margins of error. But other polls last year had Labour around the same level of support (43%, 43%, 45%).

However Labour has risen, at the expense of NZ First.

  • National 44.5% (up 0.1)
  • Labour 42.3% (up 5.4)
  • Greens 6.0% (down 0.3)
  • NZ First 3.8% (down 3.4)
  • TOP 1.4% (down 1)
  • Maori Party 0.8% (down 0.4)
  • ACT 0.2% (down 0.3)

Most of those results are too small to mean anything, except for the Labour lift and the NZ First slump.

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 38% (up 8.3)
  • Bill English 26% (down 9)
  • Winston Peters 5.7% (down 1.4)

Newshub-Reid Research interviews were conducted using online polling and computer-assisted telephone interviewing. Some 750 people were interviewed by phone and 250 online between Thursday, January 18 and Sunday, January 28.

Data is weighted to ensure a cross-section of representation of age, gender and geography.

The sample error is maximum of +/-3.1 percent at a 95 percent confidence level.

Also: Kiwis unfazed by Prime Minister’s pregnancy

And:  Bill English has solid backing as Opposition leader

One could wonder why Barry Soper raised the issue of English’s leadership in an ‘opinion’ piece this morning.

Hopelessly out of touch poll claim

Polls are often used to claim things that they don’t portray. There is no way of knowing exactly why polls move, and what timeframe cause and effect operates under. Pundits can only guess, or make things up.

In New Zealand media companies who publish polls try to make dramatic stories out of their own polls.

Here a niche blogger makes a ridiculous claim based on a US poll aggregator’s rolling results: Shithole countries comment gets Trump a big bounce in the polls

I had a chat amongst some other political tragics some weeks ago about how big a bounce would Donald Trump get with his shithole countries comments.

Some weeks ago? Trump made those comments just over two weeks ago, reported on 11 January (US date so 12 January NZ date).

It turns out a pretty substantial bump in the polls:

It doesn’t turn out to be anything of the sort. A Real Clear Politics ‘President Trump Job Approval’ chart is displayed – here is the same thing a day later, with the date of the shithole comment shown.

Since the comment there has been a small improvement in the poll average.  All polls cover several days and are obviously published after they are taken. Some of them are rolling polls. There is never a ‘before and event’ poll and an ‘after an event’ poll that can measure a movement on a specific day. So there is no way of knowing when a poll moves and why with any precision.

And different polls come out over time, with some leaning one way or the other, so the timing of the polls in the mix can make a difference, especially coming out of a time when some polls shut down for the holiday period.

RCP polling data shown at the blog:

I don’t know how that can tell anyone why a poll average changed due to one of many events that happened on 11 January, before that and after that. Trump is in the news a lot. A few days prior to his shithole comment Michael Wolff’s book was big news, and that’s likely to have some effect on poll trends.

A single rolling poll (Rasmussen Reports that tends to favour Trump) shows no appreciable change over the shithole period.

Date Approval Index Strongly Approve Strongly Disapprove Total Approve Total Disapprove
26-Jan-18 -12 30% 42% 44% 55%
25-Jan-18 -15 29% 44% 45% 54%
24-Jan-18 -16 29% 45% 44% 55%
23-Jan-18 -18 29% 47% 43% 57%
22-Jan-18 -18 28% 46% 42% 56%
19-Jan-18 -14 30% 44% 45% 54%
18-Jan-18 -16 28% 44% 45% 54%
17-Jan-18 -16 29% 45% 45% 54%
16-Jan-18 -16 29% 45% 45% 54%
15-Jan-18 -13 31% 44% 46% 52%
12-Jan-18 -13 30% 43% 46% 53%
11-Jan-18 -13 29% 42% 45% 53%
10-Jan-18 -14 30% 44% 44% 55%
09-Jan-18 -17 28% 45% 43% 56%
08-Jan-18 -16 30% 46% 42% 56%
05-Jan-18 -15 29% 44% 44% 54%
04-Jan-18 -12 31% 43% 45% 53%
03-Jan-18 -15 29% 44% 44% 54%

To understand what people thought of Trump’s comment requires a targeted poll. Like this one from HuffPost/YouGov:

January 11 – 12, 2018 – 1000 US Adults

According to a recent news report, President Trump asked “Why are we having all these people from shithole countries come here?” referring to immigration from African countries and Haiti. Do you agree or disagree with that comment?

  • Agree strongly 12%
  • Agree somewhat 14%
  • Total agree 26%
  • Disagree somewhat 13%
  • Disagree strongly 45%
  • Total disagree 58%
  • Not sure 16%

A comment at WO from ‘no bullswool’ would appear to be bullswool:

Donald Trump is refreshing in that he says what many ordinary people are thinking.

Back to the WO post:

Once again the media are shown to be hopelessly out of touch with ordinary voters.

Those are big changes over the previous months polling and you can clearly see his Approval ratings climbing rapidly off of the back of his shithole comments.

They are not big changes, ratings haven’t climbed rapidly, there is no way of linking minor poll fluctuations to one comment by Trump, and are a fool (or are trying to fool others) claiming you can see clearly what Slater is claiming.

Who is hopelessly out of touch?

US politics “has reached a dangerous low point”

A Washington Post/University of Maryland poll indicates that confidence in the US about their democracy is dropping, with many thinking politics has reached a dangerous low point.

Do you think problems in America’s politics right now are similar to most periods of partisan disagreement, or do you think problems have reached a dangerous low point?

  • Have reached a dangerous low point 71%
    (Temporary 31%, the ‘new normal’ 39%)
  • Similar to most periods of disagreement 29%

ShiningCityFlag

Do you think divisions today are at least as big as during the Vietnam War?

  • At least as big as during the Vietnam War 70%
    (ages 65 and over 77%, 18-29 65%)
  • Smaller 27%
    (ages 65 and over 18%, 18-29 34%)

How proud are you of the way democracy works in America?

  • 1996 (GSS) 16%
  • 2002 (Post) 9%
  • 2004 (GSS) 10%
  • 2014 (GSS) 18%
  • 2017 (Post/U-Md) 36%

How much, if at all, do you blame each of the following for causing dysfunction in the U.S. political system?

USPollDysfunction

Ordered by ‘A lot or some’/’Not at all’

Money is clearly seen as the biggest cause of dysfunction in US politics, but there are other contributing factors.

While Trump is well down that list he is the fourth highest ‘A lot’ at 51%.

Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/national/democracy-poll/