Labour poll different

Labour are emailing internal polls results to their mailing list that show a quite different result to the Newshub/Reid Research poll that was published yesterday.

I’ve just got our latest poll numbers in, and I wanted to share them with you first.

Here’s the breakdown:

  • Labour: 32%
  • Greens: 13%
  • National: 42%
  • New Zealand First: 9%

While this latest poll puts us and the Greens collectively ahead of National, last night, another poll had us at 26% – short of being able to form a government.

It shows just how volatile polls are and how close this election is going to be.

And while our latest poll numbers show we are up, it’s looking like we won’t meet our online fundraising target this month – meaning we might not have enough funds to run the campaign we’ve planned to win.

Right now we really need to keep our momentum up. That momentum relies on the vital funds thousands of generous supporters like you contribute to our campaign. We need to invest in more advertising, more rallies, more volunteer organisers and build our campaign now – if we don’t, we risk losing our gains.

The latest June 2017 Newshub/Reid Research poll was:

  • National 47.4%
  • Labour 26.4%
  • Greens 12.5%
  • NZ First 9.4%

That’s quite different. What Labour (Andrew Kirton) didn’t specify was when their poll was conducted, what the sample size was, what the questions asked were, and the margin of error was.

Polls will vary but Labour’s poll is quite different to the last two public polls.

It’s also worth pointing out Labour have twice in the last few months released their internal poll results, but most of the time they don’t, so it’s not possible to compare trends.

Newshub/Reid Research poll

The latest (June 2017) Newshub/Reid Research poll:

  • National 47.4% (up from 47.1)
  • Labour 26.4% (down from 30.6)
  • Greens 12.5% (up from 11.2)
  • NZ First 9.4% (up from 7.6)

Everybody will be happy enough with that three months out from the election, except for Labour.

Newshub is promoting:

But NZ First has been higher in other polls.

That doesn’t look flash for Labour either. It’s the lowest Little has been in a Newshub/RR poll.

Newshub’s headline:  Labour crumbles, falling towards defeat

Their last poll was in March: Newshub poll – Ardern surges

May in UK: chaotic and unpopular

There are reports of chaos in the UK as Theresa May puts together her new Cabinet, and a post-election poll puts the Conservatives behind Labour.

The Telegraph:  Labour take five-point lead over Tories in latest poll

Labour have gained a five-point lead over the Conservatives following a disastrous general election night, according to the latest poll.

A Survation study puts Jeremy Corbyn’s party on 45 per cent and the Tories on just 39 per cent.

A month ago a Survation poll had the Conservatives 18% ahead on 48% to Labour’s 30%.

The dramatic reversal in the Labour leader’s fortunes comes after the most damaging 48 hours of Theresa May’s career.

A YouGov poll for the Sunday Times has also revealed almost half of Britons believe Mrs May should quit as Prime Minister.

A total of 48 per cent of the 1,720 people interviewed between June 9 and 10 thought she should stand down, with 38 per cent saying she should stay.

Mrs May is still reeling from the unexpected loss of seats at an election that she called to “strengthen her hand” for Brexit talks.

The Telegraph: Theresa May begins Cabinet reshuffle as DUP deal descends into chaos

Ireland’s prime minister warns Theresa May DUP deal could put Northern Ireland peace process at risk

Enda Kenny, the Irish prime minister, has said he is “concerned” about Theresa May’s plan to cut a deal with the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) to prop up a Conservative minority government.

Mr Kenny, who has served as Ireland’s Taoiseach since 2011, said he feared the deal could put the peace process in Northern Ireland at risk.

“Spoke w PM May -indicated my concern that nothing should happen to put GoodFridayAgrmt at risk & absence of nationalist voice in Westminster,” he said on Twitter.

Also:

 

Listener political poll

The Listener has a political poll:

ListenerPoll2017June

The Adjusted column is closer to other political polls which exclude undecided in their main results.

Adjusted is quite similar to other recent polls except that Labour is down a bit and Greens are up a bit. Together they total just 40%.

Gareth Morgan was promoting this poll for obvious reasons – TOP seem to be getting some traction.

The same base numbers with a Listener readers’ poll as well.

 

Online only is different to the other main public political polls, which still do telephone polling.

 

 

Roy Morgan May poll

The Roy Morgan poll for May 2017 has just been released – this is all pre-budget.

  • National 43% (no change)
  • Labour 28.5% (down from 29.5)
  • Greens 14% (up from 13)
  • NZ First 10% (down from 10.5)
  • Maori Party 1.5% (up from 1)
  • ACT 0.5% (down from 1.5)
  • United Future 0% (no change)
  • Mana Party 1% (up from 0)
  • Conservative Party 0% (down from 0.5)
  • Other 1.5% (up from 1)

So there isn’t much change here. It isn’t much different from the Roy Morgan March poll either.

National are in a danger zone and will be hoping to get a lift from the budget.

Labour continue to stagnate and will be hoping to come up with a real game changer rather than failed aspirations ongoing.

Greens and NZ First are looking healthy but they need larger partners to make a coalition.

Labour + Greens are unchanged, as is National, but both are nowhere near a majority.

http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/7239-roy-morgan-new-zealand-voting-intention-may-2017-201705261624

One word describing Trump

What word first comes to mind when you think about Donald Trump?

More about that later.

The latest RCP average approval for Trump is swinging against him again after the Syrian missile attack, North Korean tough talk and Afghanistan big bomb bump subsides.

It is now 42.1% approve to 52.9% disapprove.

Quinnipiac is worse than that, with their latest poll showing Trump on 36% approve and 58% disapprove. See Quinnipiac University Poll

May 10, 2017 – U.S. Voters Send Trump Approval To Near Record Low; Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; No Winner In Media War, But Voters Trust Media More

American voters disapprove 58 – 37 percent of the way the news media covers Trump.

Voters disapprove 65 – 31 percent of the way Trump talks about the media.

And voters trust the media more than Trump 57 – 31 percent to tell the truth about important issues.

Trump’s first 100 days in office have been “mainly a failure,” 58 percent of voters say, while 38 percent say they have been “mainly a success.”

By a 54 – 38 percent margin, American voters want the Democratic Party to win control of the U.S. House of Representatives.

They also asked:

9. What is the first word that comes to mind when you think of Donald Trump? (Numbers are not percentages. Figures show the number of times each response was given. This table reports only words that were mentioned at least five times.)

idiot         39
incompetent   31
liar          30
leader        25
unqualified   25
president     22
strong        21
businessman   18
ignorant      16
egotistical   15
asshole       13
stupid        13
arrogant      12
trying        12
bully         11
business      11
narcissist    11
successful    11
disgusting    10
great         10
clown          9
dishonest      9
racist         9
American       8
bigot          8
good           8
money          8
smart          8
buffoon        7
con-man        7
crazy          7
different      7
disaster       7
rich           7
despicable     6
dictator       6
aggressive     5
blowhard       5
decisive       5
embarrassment  5
evil           5
greedy         5
inexperienced  5
mental         5
negotiator     5
patriotism     5


UK and NZ polls similar

Matthew Hooton claims that the non-public UMR poll has National on 44% and Labour on 28%.

That’s still a big lead for the Conservatives in the UK and Labour there has a lot of ground to make up to be competitive in their election to be held in a month.

There’s still over four months until New Zealand’s election.

National on 44% (they were 43.5% in last month’s Roy Morgan poll) is in risky territory. At that level of support they would have to have NZ First support, either in a coalition or from the cross benches, to form a government.

They could recover some support, depending a lot on how well this month’s budget is seen by the public, but they could just as easily slip back more.

Labour at 28% seem stuck in the high twenties. They were 29.5% in last month’s Roy Morgan. Unless they improve substantially it will be difficult for them to form a government.

These poll numbers are supported by Colin James’ column this week.

Labour in congress — needing a stronger story

The “Jacinda effect” appears to have wisped away. Here and there in the Labour party one can hear glum whispers of three more “long years” in opposition.

Likewise from “coalition” partner, the Greens — who, by the way, got far more in election donations in 2014 than Labour.

“Nine long years”, Labour grandee Steve Maharey used to intone in 1999 before Labour’s win that year. Stuart Nash intoned it last week with the same hope of release.

But will it be “12 long years”? That question will hang over this coming weekend’s pre-election congress (conference).

Labour’s poll average has sunk from over 30% in March to under 28%. Was the lift it got after making Jacinda Ardern deputy leader a blip? (National has also slipped but is still around 45%.) 

Every ‘game changer’ tried by Labour seems to have been no more than a blip. The closer ties with Greens, and attempting to combine Labour and Green poll support so they look competitive with National, has failed to lift anyone by NZ First.

A lot could happen over the next four months. Both National and Labour will be hoping that NZ First isn’t the main beneficiary.

73% want US election inquiry v Russia

A clear majority of Americans want an independent, non-partisan commission instead of Congress to investigate Russia’s involvement in the 2016 election, according to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

NBC News: 73% Back Independent Probe of Russian Election Interference

Seventy-three percent of respondents prefer the independent investigation, versus 16 percent who pick Congress.

Still, a majority of Americans — 54 percent — believe that Congress should investigate whether there was contact between the Russian government and the Trump campaign, which is essentially unchanged from February’s NBC/WSJ poll.

That’s clear majorities for all but Republicans.

The NBC/WSJ poll was conducted April 17-20 of 900 adults, including more than 400 who were reached via cell phone. The poll has an overall margin of error of plus-minus 3.3 percentage points.

Poll: Trump would beat Clinton again

Different poll slants from the US, none of which mean much.

12h12 hours ago

New News/WaPo poll: 56% say Trump has accomplished either not much or nothing in his first 100 days in office

Washington Examiner saw something different of interest: Wash Post poll hides: Trump still beats Clinton, 43%-40%

A new Washington Post poll that declares President Trump as “the least popular president in modern times,” waits until the second to last paragraph to reveal another tidbit: He’d still beat Hillary Rodham Clinton if the election were held today and in the popular vote, not just Electoral College.

It probably wasn’t prominent because it isn’t very important.

c-gdo9juqaamy3f

Clinton is failed political history so it’s not surprising to see her support waning. It’s more notable that Trump’s support is staying low even though he is now president and getting a lot of attention.

Also unchanged: His base still likes him.

That’s not surprising, he had strong support from his base and hasn’t done much that would lose that support. He hasn’t done much to gain support from people who doubted his abilities either.

The poll found that Trump’s polls continue to be upside down, with a 42 percent approval and 53 percent disapproval.

That’s similar to most other polls. Trump’s approval was diving until his missile strike in Syria and big bomb drop in Afghanistan, after which it recovered a little but that doesn’t seem to have been sustained.

RCPApproval2017-04-23

Trump still has a lot to prove – that he can get things done as promised, and that he won’t stuff up the world and provoke Armageddon.

Support may drop off if he keeps failing to deliver on his tough talk and campaign promises, like this winding back the rhetoric.

Suspect phone polling

Some reports of suspect robocall polling,

And from the Standard, Anne:

I have just had an interesting phone call (land-line). It was an automatic call and I was asked a detailed number of politically related questions which ranged from political affiliations (including some which were clearly attempting to ascertain how likely I might be prepared to change my vote) to other assorted issues. All the answers were indicated by way of pushing a button – example, 1 for Green, 2 for Lab, 3 for Nat etc.

When I was asked who I would I be voting for the ‘voice’ expressed the following:

“It is great to hear you are voting for Labour”.

Initially I thought… this sounds like a Labour initiated automatic poll. Where did they get the money from? Now I’m not so sure. I suspect that it wouldn’t have mattered who a person said they voted for… they would get the same response “it’s great to hear you will be voting for [insert party here]” – depending on what button was pushed.

There was no indication who was conducting the poll. I had expected to be told at the end of survey. It strikes me as a bit unethical to conduct such a poll without identifying who you are or what polling company you represent.

I’d have thought that any ethical pollster would identify themselves.

A comment in response to that claimed to have getting a spam call from Labour but gave no indication how they knew who was doing the polling or who it was for.

If any party is behind polling like that they are likely to get very unreliable results.


From High Flying Duck in comments:

I had this very call tonight!
It starts very neutral asking about voting intentions and concerns.
Then it suddenly asks which aspects of National’s
Housing policy worries you the most…
Letting foreigners come in and buy up our country?
Locking first home buyers out of the market? etc…
It then does the same with education and health.
The health one asked “what part of Nationals health cuts worries you the most”…
All very leading.
They give three negative options and the fourth is “I don’t care about health or education” et al.
It came across as teeing to plant a seed rather than elicit an opinion.
All very odd.