There seems to have been a non-public poll done for the Mt Roskill by-election for Labour, but there are mixed messages.
A week ago in NZ’s feeblest John Key parrot is on the brink of a shellacking in Mt Roskill Simon Wilson wrote:
Labour has a poll that puts their candidate, Michael Wood, 30 points ahead, at 58 to 28. That’s a spectacular fail in an electorate where National won the party vote in 2014 by 2000.
That would be a spectacular result, but without any details about the poll, when it was taken, what the questions were, and what the sample size and method were, it’s worth being very wary – especially when a party with a vested interest promotes the results.
This came up again today, started by a tweet from Labour MP Phil Twyford.
Never mind Key’s spin, the Herald has the numbers on why Roskill is no slam dunk for Michael Wood
Even post-Trump, NZ spin is parties vying to claim that they will in fact suffer the most humiliating defeat
Unlike Key we are not predicting defeat, just that Roskill may be close run and that we have to work hard for it.
Thought your internal polling was supposed to be putting you 30 points ahead?
Don’t believe every bit of unsourced speculation you hear.
I didn’t say I believed it. But @simonbwilson was on NatRad this morning saying Labour had told him this. So either Simon’s bullshitting (which I very much doubt) or someone’s bullshitting Simon.
No reason to doubt my sources. Plural. Both parties have reason to argue it’s close. Both bullshitting? Oh dear, agony for another 28 hours!
Theoretically, that poll *should* be accurate [safe seat; 3rd term Nat govt, etc]. But things are weird right now.
@simonbwilson Strong Lab cand + strong campaign. Weak Nat cand. Greens X. 3rd party votes off Parmar. By-elect. Crime. House $. Key says nah.
Most things point to a comfortable win to Labour’s Wood, but it may close up, that poll is over a week old.
But why did Twyford emphasise “Roskill is no slam dunk” and “Roskill may be close run”?