Small movements in another Colmar Brunton poll

We are finally getting a few polls leading into the election, with 1 News/Colmar Brunton releasing another poll, this one with polling done following last week’s leaders debate. This may have slightly lifted National support.

And Labour have slipped enough to raise doubts they may be able to govern alone, especially with a bit more of a Green rise.

  • Labour 47% (down 1)
  • National 33% (up 2)
  • ACT 8% (up 1)
  • Greens 7% (up 1)
  • NZ First 1% (down 1)
  • New Conservatives 1% (down 1)
  • TOP 1%
  • Maori Party 1%
  • Advance NZ 1%

Refuse to answer – 3%
Undecided – 8%

Polling was done from Wednesday 23 to Sunday 27 September.

These are well within margin of error shifts.

Greens are looking healthier but will need to keep fighting for every vote they can get. They sometimes do better in polls than elections.

Winston Peters won’t quite have to rename his party NZ Last, but this loos increasingly like his last stint in Parliament.

The other small parties look like they are getting little to no traction.

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 54% (no change)
  • Judith Collins 23% (up 5)
  • David Seymour 2% (no change)
  • Winston Peters 1% (no change)

That’s a semi significant rise for Collins but she is still a long way off the pace.

1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll: Labour and Greens in driving seat, but ACT still strong

Newshub/Reid research poll – similar results

The latest Newshub/Reid Research political poll is quite similar to the recent 1 News/Colmar Brunton poll, suggesting they are not far off the mark, for now at least.

  • Labour 50.1% (down 10.8) – CB 48%
  • National 29.6% (up 4.5) – CB 31%
  • Greens 6.5% (up 0.8) – CB 6%
  • ACT 6.3% (up 3) – CB 7%
  • New Conservatives 2.1% (up 1.2) – CB 1.6%
  • NZ First 1.9% (down 0.1) – CB 2.4%
  • Maori Party 1.5% (up 1.1) – CB 0.9%
  • TOP 0.9% (up 0.5) – 1.1%

Reid Research – interviewing between 16-23 September 2020, and 1000 people were surveyed – 700 by telephone and 300 by internet panel. It has a margin of error of 3.1 percent.

Colmar Brunton – interviewing from Thursday 17 to Monday 22 September 2020. Sample size 1008, sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level.

On the ‘margin of error’ (CB): This is the sampling error for a result around 50%. Results higher and lower than 50% have a smaller sampling error. For example, results around 10% and 5% have sampling errors of approximately ±1.9%-points and ±1.4%-points, respectively, at the 95% confidence level.

Labour – on current polls they could govern alone, but their support is slipping. They haven’t indicated that if they have a sole majority whether they would include the Greens in Government or not.

National are failing to get traction after a slump during Covid and two leadership changes. There’s no sign of things changing significantly for them. They are copping ongoing damaging flak for errors in their economic plan.

ACT continue to do very well, partly presumably at National’s expense, but also due to a successful term and a strong campaign from David Seymour. They’re looking likely to having several MPs again.

Greens have recovered from sub-threshold results and are looking more likely to survive in Parliament, probably as support for Labour slips, but the amount of leverage they get will depend on whether Labour needs them to form a government or not.

NZ First continue to fail to attract anywhere enough support. Winston Peters seems to have lost his midas touch and mojo. In contrast to Jacinda Ardern he looks last century.

Maori Party will have to rely on a surprise electorate victory to get back into Parliament.

NZ Conservatives have picked up support but probably nowhere near enough to make the threshold.

TOP is at the bottom.

Advance NZ don’t appear in the Reid Research poll.

Voting starts this coming Saturday (3 October) through to election day two weeks later on 17 October.

With early voting becoming more popular and also encouraged due to Covid time is running out for any parties to substantially change their support.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2020_New_Zealand_general_election

1 News/Colmar Brunton poll

The latest 1 News/Colmar Brunton poll:

  • Labour 48% (July 53%)
  • National 31% (July 32%)
  • ACT 7% (July 4.8%)
  • Greens 6% (July 5%)
  • NZ First 2% (July 2.0%)
  • New Conservatives 2% (July 1.2%)
  • Maori Party (July 1.0%)
  • TOP (July 1%)
  • Advance NZ 1%

These are rounds they do for their initial results and will be updated when the more accurate results are available.

Their last poll was done 25-29 July.

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 54% (July 54%)
  • Judith Collins 18% (July 20%)
  • David Seymour 2% (July 1%)
  • Winston Peters 2% (July 1%)

So as expected Labour are still looking very comfortable despite dropping a bit, but if they come down much more and Greens survive, as looks more likely, it may be a two party Government.

Greens seem to be benefiting from the ‘not Labour on their own’ sentiment.

National are just not making up any ground 9althoughb are higher than on some other recent polls).

ACT will remain confident.

NZ First look like they are being largely dismissed by voters. It’s going to be very tough for Peters from here, with Jones seeming to have pretty much conceded Northland already.

New Conservatives are gaining ground but probably too little, too late.

Maori Party have to win an electorate to get back in.

Advance NZ make their first showing but are a long way from the threshold.

Cannabis referendum poll closed up

A Horizon Research survey, commissioned for Helius Therapeutics and (provided exclusively to Stuff) show that support and opposition for the cannabis referendum has closed up to even.

Stuff: New poll shows dead heat in legalise dope vote

I wish they would give things their proper name.

The referendum options are:

  • “Yes, I support the proposed Cannabis Legalisation and Control Bill.”
  • “No, I do not support the proposed Cannabis Legalisation and Control Bill”.
Image

“For nearly two years we’ve tracked public opinion, and this is an incredible result given early voting starts in just over four weeks. It’s increasingly clear that it will come down to voter registration and election turnout, particularly if younger adults lift their intention to vote,” chief executive of Helius Therapeutics Paul Manning said.

That sounds like standard over-egging the importance of a single poll.

When respondents were given a “not sure” option, 12 per cent took it, leaving 44 per cent in favour and 41 per cent against. The poll then gave people a binary yes/no choice to replicate the choice that people will face when they walk in to vote from October 3. That figure is a dead heat.

People who are not sure are probably less likely to vote. It is still over six weeks until the referendum (and election), but early voting starts in about four weeks.

It looks like opinion is closing up:

Age differences aren’t surprising:

Young people are less likely to vote and older people are more likely to vote so this favours the no vote.

Conducted between 20 and 25 August, the survey sampled over 1300 New Zealanders, and has a margin of error of 2.7 per cent.


The referendum question is:

Do you support the proposed Cannabis Legalisation and Control Bill?

  • Yes
    I support the proposed Cannabis Legalisation and Control Bill.
  • No
    I do not support the proposed Cannabis Legalisation and Control Bill.

About the proposed Cannabis Legalisation and Control Bill

The proposed Bill sets out a way for the Government to control and regulate cannabis. This regulatory model covers how people can produce, supply, or consume cannabis.

The Bill’s main purpose is to reduce cannabis-related harm to individuals, families/whānau and communities.

The Bill legalises restricted access to cannabis

The Bill would allow people to possess and consume cannabis in limited circumstances.

A person aged 20 or over would be able to:

  • buy up to 14 grams of dried cannabis (or its equivalent) per day only from licensed outlets
  • enter licensed premises where cannabis is sold or consumed
  • consume cannabis on private property or at licensed premises
  • grow up to 2 plants, with a maximum of 4 plants per household
  • share up to 14 grams of dried cannabis (or its equivalent) with another person aged 20 or over.

The Bill’s purpose is to reduce harm to people and communities

The Bill intends to reduce cannabis-related harm to individuals, families/whānau and communities by:

  • providing access to legal cannabis that meets quality and potency requirements
  • eliminating the illegal supply of cannabis
  • raising awareness of the health risks associated with cannabis use
  • restricting young people’s access to cannabis
  • limiting the public visibility of cannabis
  • requiring health warnings on packaging and at the time of purchase
  • improving access to health and social services, and other kinds of support for families/whānau
  • making sure the response to any breach of the law is fair.

The Bill controls the production and supply of cannabis

The Bill would regulate how cannabis is produced and supplied by:

  • limiting the total amount of licensed cannabis for sale
  • controlling the potency and contents of licensed cannabis and cannabis products
  • applying an excise tax when a product is packaged and labelled for sale
  • setting up a licensing system under which all cannabis-related businesses must hold a licence
  • regulating location and trading hours for premises where cannabis is sold or consumed, in consultation with local communities
  • banning people from importing cannabis and allowing only licensed businesses to import cannabis seeds
  • separating businesses that are licensed to grow cannabis and produce cannabis products from businesses that are licensed to operate premises where cannabis can be sold and consumed.

What’s not included in this referendum?

The proposed Bill does not cover medicinal cannabis, hemp, driving while impaired, or workplace health and safety issues. These are covered by existing laws.

Medicinal cannabis is already legal under the Medicinal Cannabis Scheme.

Source: https://www.referendums.govt.nz/cannabis/index.html

Roy Morgan poll – August 2020

The Roy Morgan polls results for August have been published – remember that unusually they poll right through the month, which may make it harder to analyse the results.

Labour have eased slightly but are still well ahead. National have come up a little but are still a very distant second.

Greens have risen quite a bit over the last two months, but have been regularly polling much higher in Roy Morgan polls than with other major polls.

  • Labour 48% (down 5.5%)
  • National 28.5% (up 2%)
  • Greens 11.5% (up 3.5%)
  • ACT Party 6% (down 0.5%)
  • NZ First 2.5% (up 1)
  • The Opportunities Party 1% (down 0.5%)
  • Maori Party 0.5% (no change)

No result for the JLR/conspiracy parties.

Roy Morgan are usually favourable for the Greens, and this won’t have been affected much by the Green School debacle, but they look sort of safe at this stage.

NZ First have a lot of ground to make up.

National are a way off the pace and look very unlikely to seriously challenge Labour. The biggest point of interest at this stage is whether Labour have enough to govern on their own or not (or with the greens but not needing Green votes to implement their policies of choice).

It’s still six weeks until the election but there would need to be major unexpected events to substantially change the outcome.

Source: https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8509-nz-national-voting-intention-august-2020-202008310343

Combined poll results from Opinion polling for the 2020 New Zealand general election

Rogue polls versus statistics

It’s common for politicians to claim that unfavourable polls are inaccurate (and nearly as common for them to accept favourable polls as ok).

Gerry Brownlee went as far as claiming a Newshub/Reid Research poll published on Monday was ‘rogue’.

RNZ: Gerry Brownlee questions methodology used in latest Newshub Reid Research poll

The latest Newshub Reid Research poll, released last night, has put the Labour Party on 60.9 percent and National on 25.1 percent, as the election draws closer.

The National Party released a statement just one minute before the news of the poll, dismissing it as rogue.

“I don’t believe it at all, I think it’s entirely out of kilter, it’s absolutely opposite to what we’re hearing in the electorates. The poll itself doesn’t go anywhere near where our polling is, the polling itself is clearly wrong,” party leader Judith Collins said.

National’s election campaign chair and deputy leader Gerry Brownlee told Morning Report that he meant no disrespect to the people who participated or those at Reid Research, but questioned the methodology being used.

“[The methodology used] potentially could not be random. When they applied that methodology, you’re going through selecting people who meet certain criteria that you want to have inside your polls – age groups and diversity, but that doesn’t mean you are always getting a truly random sample of what people are thinking politically.”

He reiterated the same message he had from last night, that statistically one in 20 polls would be wrong and that this was that one.

The poll has a margin of error of 3.1 percent, and was done between 16-24 July with 1000 people surveyed – the majority by phone and the remainder via an internet panel.

One of the problems with Brownlee’s claims is that while statistically a 1 in 20 poll may be outside the margin of error it is very likely to be 10% outside the margin of error. It would be much more likely to be just 0.1% outside the margin of error, or 1% outside.

According to statistical methods with the 95% confidence used is there is a 95% (19 in 20) the 25.1% result for National will be between 22.0% and 28.2%, and a 1 in 20 chance it will be outside this range. But the chances of it being 35% (or 15%) are very slim.

National leaked an internal poll result of 36% (but gave no details about polling period or sample size) – this means there is a 95% chance of it of actually being between 33% and 39%.

The 1 News/Colmar Brunton poll published on Thursday had a different polling period and a different result.

It was published as 32% with a margin of error of 3.1% (at 50%, it reduces the further you get from 50%). But that’s a rounded result, it could have been anywhere between 31.51% and 32.49%.

Accounting for the margin of error that’s a 95% confidence range somewhere between about 28.5% and 35.5%, with a 1 in 20 chance it is outside this.

Labour were published as 53%, but that’s a 95% confidence range somewhere between about 49.5% and 56.5%, still a big lead over National.

So any poll is quite approximate, despite how Newshub and 1 News try to portray their results.

Political news will affect who people think they may vote for. Sensationalised news of poll results is also likely to affect voter decisions.

And these poll results are already out of date. The Colmar Brunton poll published on Thursday:

  • Interviewing took place from Saturday 25 to Wednesday 29 July 2020.
  • Sunday (50% of sample size target was reached on this day).

So political news (including the Monday Reid Research poll) and social contact through the week would barely be reflected in the Colmar poll.

Brownlee making a fuss about a poor poll result drew more attention (some negative) to the result, but will probably only play a very small in the next poll.

Rogue MPs are a much bigger deal than rogue polls.

Polls are a useful but very approximate indicator of voter preferences in the past.

Euthanasia and cannabis polls

Research NZ has bing doing polls related to the referendums on euthanasia and cannabis.

Asked whether they were in favour or not in favour of the legislation which allows terminally ill adults to request a medically assisted death:

  • 64% in favour
  • 18% not in favour
  • 7% don’t know

Research NZ managing partner Emanuel Kalafatelis said 52 percent of survey respondents said they had recently seen or heard information about legalising euthanasia, while 55 percent said they had thought about the issue and about a third had discussed it with their friends and family.

…the figure shows a softening in the level of support and when the same question was asked in December last year approximately 70 percent of respondents were in favour of the legislation, while the number of those strongly in favour of the legislation dropped from 50 percent six months ago to 33 percent today.

Kalafatelis said there is a relatively higher level of support among older age groups, but the level of support across all age groups is well over 50 percent.

“Are you in favour or not in favour of a government controlling by law how cannabis is grown, manufactured and sold in New Zealand for recreational use.”

  • 43% in favour
  • 39% against

These results do not show any major difference with the results from the cannabis poll taken six months ago, he said.

Kalafatelis said there is quite significant support for legalising cannabis among younger age groups, with the level of support at 57 percent amongst the 18 to 24 year olds.

Report: Kiwis back euthanasia, split on legalising cannabis – poll

Official information:

Cannabis legalisation and control referendum

End of Life Choice referendum

Roy Morgan poll – June 2020

The June poll from Roy Morgan has just been released – polling was done during June so before the Covid information leak, Walker resignation  and aftermath, and well before Todd Muller stepping down from the leadership, but it is still bd news for National.

  • Labour 54.5% (down 2)
  • National 27% (up 0.5)
  • Greens 9% (up 2)
  • ACT 5% (up 1.5)
  • NZ First 1.5% (down 1)
  • The Opportunities Party 1.5% (up 0.5)
  • Maori Party 1% (down 0.5%)

Labour are looking very comfortable, and Greens and Act will be very happy with their rises.

NZ First remain in a precarious position with it seems little interest in keeping Winston Peters in Parliament.

It is looking very grim for National, and that’s before the really bad week and a half began.

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a NZ wide cross-section of 879 electors during June. Of all electors surveyed 6% (up 0.5%) didn’t name a party. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”

 

Horizon poll: Small majority support cannabis legislation

A Horizon Research poll of 1593 respondents asked if they would vote yes for the Cannabis Legalisation and Control Bill in a non-binding referendum, which will be held alongside the general election.

  • Yes 56%

There is small change in favour of the legislation since a previous poll in February where 54% said Yes, but both are up a lot from an August 2019 poll that had just 39% in support.

I can’t find the results on the Horizon website, this is from an NZ herald report – Growing majority of Kiwis support legalising cannabis, new poll finds – that doesn’t give numbers for No or Don’t Know/Undecided.

Gender in favour:

  • Female 59%
  • Male 52%

By party supporters in favour:

  • Greens 81%
  • Labour 72%
  • ACT 70%
  • NZ First 53%
  • National 38%

The age group most in favour of legalising cannabis was 25-34 years: 72%.
Least in favour were those over 75 years:  27%.

There’s no real surprises in these results.

Respondents to the latest survey came from Horizon’s nationwide research panels and represent the adult population of the 2018 Census with results weighted by factors including age, gender, income and party voted for at the last election. The maximum margin of error is 2.9 per cent.

This poll suggests a leaning towards support of the cannabis legislation but it isn’t a big majority.

 


About the proposed Cannabis Legalisation and Control Bill

The proposed Bill sets out a way for the Government to control and regulate cannabis. This regulatory model covers how people can produce, supply, or consume cannabis.

The Bill’s main purpose is to reduce cannabis-related harm to individuals, families/whānau and communities.The Bill legalises restricted access to cannabis

The Bill would allow people to possess and consume cannabis in limited circumstances.

A person aged 20 or over would be able to:

  • buy up to 14 grams of dried cannabis (or its equivalent) per day only from licensed outlets
  • enter licensed premises where cannabis is sold or consumed
  • consume cannabis on private property or at a licensed premise
  • grow up to 2 plants, with a maximum of 4 plants per household
  • share up to 14 grams of dried cannabis (or its equivalent) with another person aged 20 or over.The Bill’s purpose is to reduce harm to people and communities

The Bill intends to reduce cannabis-related harm to individuals, families/whānau and communities by:

  • providing access to legal cannabis that meets quality and potency requirements
  • eliminating the illegal supply of cannabis
  • raising awareness of the health risks associated with cannabis use
  • restricting young people’s access to cannabis
  • limiting the public visibility of cannabis
  • requiring health warnings on packaging and at the time of purchase
  • improving access to health and social services, and other kinds of support for families/whānau
  • making sure the response to any breach of the law is fair.

The Bill controls the production and supply of cannabis

The Bill would regulate how cannabis is produced and supplied by:

  • limiting the total amount of licensed cannabis for sale
  • controlling the potency and contents of licensed cannabis and cannabis products
  • applying an excise tax when a product is packaged and labelled for sale
  • setting up a licensing system under which all cannabis-related businesses must hold a licence
  • regulating location and trading hours for premises where cannabis is sold or consumed, in consultation with local communities
  • banning people from importing cannabis and allowing only licensed businesses to import cannabis seeds
  • separating businesses that are licensed to grow cannabis and produce cannabis products from businesses that are licensed to operate premises where cannabis can be sold and consumed.

What’s not included in this referendum?

The proposed Bill does not cover medicinal cannabis, hemp, driving while impaired, or workplace health and safety issues. These are covered by existing laws.

Medicinal cannabis is already legal under the Medicinal Cannabis Scheme.

 Learn about medicinal cannabis at health.govt.nz 

UMR poll: National bottomed out

The latest UMR poll suggests that big National’s slide may have ended, getting 30%. They were still polling in the forties in February before Covid struck but slid to 29-30 in three polls, and in the latest (Roy Morgan in late May) they got just 26.5%,

And for now at least, and Todd Muller has at least got higher approval than Simon Bridges had. It’s early days for Muller’s leadership, and his first week was not flash and he was dumped on by media, but he at least has a chance to build on some support.

  • Labour 54% (down marginally from 55% in April)
  • National 30% (up marginally from 29% in April)
  • NZ First 5% (down from 6%)
  • Greens 4% (down from 5%)
  • ACT may be 2.5%

No result reported for ACT or parties not in Parliament (but a social media mention of the ACT result).

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 65% (no change)
  • Todd Muller 13%

The April UMR poll had Bridges on 7% so Muller and National may feel a bit of vindication for changing the leadership.

The poll of 1211 voters was taken from May 26 to June 1 and has a margin of error of +/-3%.

UMR polls are private polls (paid for by Labour and corporate clients) but have been more often leaked when they have been favourable to Labour and bad for National

Source ODT/NZ Herald (with a stupid headline, the situation now is very different too when).