Trump versus women

The issue of Donald trump’s attitude to women and his alleged inappropriate behaviour with women continues to dominate the US presidential election. More allegations have been published from women claiming that Trump has acted with them much like he described him being in the tape conversation that emerged a week ago.

This also brings to the surface a major issue of (some) male attitudes to woman.

The latest allegation is in the Washington Post: Woman says Trump reached under her skirt and groped her in early 1990s

Kristin Anderson, who was pursuing a modeling career, has told The Post that Donald Trump groped her on a couch in a crowded Manhattan nightspot in the early 1990s. The Trump campaign denied the allegations, as it has denied claims made by other women who have come forward in recent days.

Kristin Anderson was deep in conversation with acquaintances at a crowded Manhattan nightspot and did not notice the figure to her right on a red velvet couch — until, she recalls, his fingers slid under her miniskirt, moved up her inner thigh, and touched her vagina through her underwear.

Anderson shoved the hand away, fled the couch and turned to take her first good look at the man who had touched her, she said.

She recognized him as Donald Trump: “He was so distinctive looking — with the hair and the eyebrows. I mean, nobody else has those eyebrows.”

Over the years, Anderson, now 46 and a photographer living in Southern California, has recounted the story to people she knew, casually at first.

One friend, Kelly Stedman, told The Washington Post that Anderson informed her about the encounter a few days after it happened.

Anderson, who said she doesn’t support Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton, did not initially approach The Post. A reporter contacted her after hearing her story from a person who knew of it, and she spent several days trying to decide whether to go public.

“Mr. Trump strongly denies this phony allegation by someone looking to get some free publicity. It is totally ridiculous,” Trump spokeswoman Hope Hicks said in an emailed statement.

The growing number of complaints against Trump, triggered by his denial he never acted the way he described in the tape, are a major distraction for his presidential campaign.

And they seem to be having an effect in polls. Trump is losing support amongst women.

A spokesperson for Trump has just said on Fox News that the allegations are very difficult to deal with (understandably). He also said he knows Trump very well and “he didn’t do any of these things”. That means nothing unless he was with at the time of each alleged grope.

The latest Fox News poll: Clinton leads Trump by 7 points:

Hillary Clinton’s lead over Donald Trump has increased to seven points, as more than half of voters say he is not qualified to be president.

  • Hillary Clinton 45%
  • Donald Trump 38%
  • Gary Johnson 7%
  • Jill Stein 3%.

Last week, Clinton was up by two points in the four-way contest (44-42 percent).

In the two-way matchup, it’s Clinton over Trump by eight (49-41 percent).  She had a four-point edge a week ago (48-44 percent, Oct. 3-6).  

That’s a significant move.

Breakdowns show that Trump is best supported by less educated white males, and his support from women is slipping.

Trump’s support:

  • Men +5 points
  • Whites +14
  • Whites without a college degree +25

But he has declining support with:

  • Voters ages 65+ down 11 points
  • White college graduates down 6
  • Regular church goers down 8
  • Women ages 45 and over down 12
  • Suburban women down 10
  • White women with a college degree down 7
  • GOP women down 6

That is significantly reducing support from women.

Trump’s enthusiasm advantage is also down, and Clinton’s is up:

70 percent of his backers “strongly” supported him last week.  That’s 63 percent now.  

For Clinton, it’s 66 percent, up from 57 percent.  

Honest and trustworthy:

  • Clinton 32% (up 1)
  • Trump 31% (down 3)

The right temperament to serve effectively as president:

  • Clinton 62% (up 1)
  • Trump 34% (down 3)

“Regardless of how you might vote, how qualified do you think Hillary Clinton is to be President of the United States?”

  • Very 41% (up 4)
  • Somewhat 26% (up 1)
  • Not very 8% (down 3)
  • Not at all 24% (down 3)

“Regardless of how you might vote, how qualified do you think Trump is to be President of the United States?”


  • Very 16% (no change)
  • Somewhat 26% (down 1)
  • Not very 9% (down 5)
  • Not at all 49% (up 7)


Clinton has her own problems with the drip feed from WikiLeaks, but at this stage it seems that Trump is being damaged more by the sexual impropriety allegations, especially amongst female voters.

UPDATE: There’s yet another woman who has come out and claimed Trump assaulted and kissed her during episode 5 of The Apprentice. She has just appeared with her lawyer in an interview from Los Angeles.

I’ve been watching Fox News coverage of this as it happens and as they covered the latest Trump speech and even from Fox he is getting bad coverage. They are showing contradictions in Trump’s denials, and showing him calling all the women liars and implying and saying that some of them are too ugly for him to assault.

He spent most of his speech (in Greensboro, North Carolina) denying accusations and attacking the women who have come out and accused him.

And he also continued with claims that the media is conspiring with the Clintons against him and that the whole election is rigged.

Some lap this stuff up but it’s looking increasingly like a major stuff up for the Republican Party.

There’s some irony here – Clinton has been promoted as a a great role model for women, especially if she wins the presidency.

But it may be Trump’s abuse of women and women’s reaction to that in the ballot box that loses the election for Trump more than Clinton winning it.


Poll on issues and immigration

IPSOS immigration poll:

Right-wing voters and long-term immigrants are less pro-immigration. Recent, pro-immigration people are more likely to be from India, whereas the long-term migrants who are mainly from the UK are now less favourable towards immigration.

Curia has a summary of an Ipsos poll on immigration:

Most important issues:


On immigration:


Also (via Curia):

  • A net 52% agree immigration should be targeted at professions with shortages
  • A net 48% say refugees can become highly valued contributors to society
  • A net 35% say immigration has made NZ a more interesting place to live
  • A net 28% say immigration is good for the economy
  • A net 30% agree immigration has placed too much pressure on public services
  • A net 15% are confident most refugees will integrate
  • A net 12% say immigration has made it harder for those here to get jobs
  • A net 10% say there are too many immigrants in NZ
  • A net 10% say terrorists who pretend to be refugees will enter NZ
  • A net 7% say immigrants are often better workers than those already here
  • A net -15% want an increase in the number of refugees
  • A net -35% say the number of immigrants who can move here should increase
  • A net -40% want no refugees accepted at all

There were 16545 people surveyed in 23 countries, including New Zealand.

• The New Zealand data was collected via one single survey of 505 adults. Some questions were omitted and some added, to ensure better suitability for the New Zealand context.

That’s a relatively small sample size.

The IPSOS survey summaries:

  • Housing affordability, cost of living and poverty concern the most New Zealanders, but age and political views influence people’s concerns.
  • Older people are more likely to say that immigration to New Zealand has increased a lot.
  • New Zealanders are much more likely to say immigration has had a positive impact.
  • New Zealand-born people have a more negative view of immigration than immigrants.
  • New Zealanders are generally positive about immigrants, but 53% feel they are pressuring public services and 54% do not want an increase in immigration numbers.
  • New Zealanders are less likely than most to feel that there are too many immigrants, but 53% agree that they are causing pressure.
  • Although 45% of New Zealanders feel that immigration has made it difficult to get jobs, New Zealanders are the most likely to feel that immigration has been good for the economy.
  • New Zealanders are the most likely to say immigrants with higher education should be given priority to fill skill shortages and that they make New Zealand a more interesting place to live.
  • Seasoned travellers and immigrants are more open and positive towards immigrants, while those New Zealandborn and poorly travelled are more ‘anti’.
  • Right-wing voters and long-term immigrants are less pro-immigration. Recent, pro-immigration people are more likely to be from India, whereas the long-term migrants who are mainly from the UK are now less favourable towards immigration.
  • While the majority of New Zealanders believe refugees can integrate well and contribute a lot, there is a concern about terrorism and little appetite for increasing the refugee intake.
  • New Zealanders are much less likely than those in the other countries surveyed to say ‘close our borders entirely’.
  • New Zealanders are much less likely to say terrorists pretending to be refugees will enter the country to cause havoc.
  • New Zealanders tend to be more confident about refugees’ ability to integrate.
  • Only 14% of New Zealanders knew the correct number of refugees allowed into NZ each year. 22% overestimated the number.
  • Those who over-estimate the size of the NZ refugee intake have a more negative view of refugees’ ability to contribute to society and likelihood to be terrorists.
    Those who over-estimate the size of the NZ refugee intake have a more negative view of refugees’ ability to integrate into NZ society and are more likely to feel we should stop admitting ALL refugees.
  • Most in EU countries think Britain was wrong to leave, for both Britain and the EU. New Zealanders are less concerned and Australians even less so.
  • New Zealanders are the most concerned about the effects on Britain than any other non-EU country surveyed, and are more concerned than Australians.
  • New Zealanders are the most concerned about the effects on the EU than any other non-EU country surveyed, and are more certain than Australians.
  • New Zealanders are more saddened and worried about future arising from the Brexit vote than Australians, who are also less likely to have an opinion.
  • 27% of New Zealanders believe that the Brexit vote will be bad for the New Zealand economy.
  • New Zealanders are more likely than those in EU countries themselves to think that the EU’s influence on the world stage will be reduced. Australians are less concerned.
  • Of all the non-EU countries surveyed, New Zealanders were the most likely to feel that both the UK and EU will become weaker post-Brexit.
  • The majority of New Zealanders felt that both the UK and the EU will become more divided and less integrated over time.

I think the poll questions on Brexit have little value here. My guess is that most New Zealanders will have only a vague knowledge at best of what Brexit was about, and our opinion is pointless anyway.

Curia has a link to the full poll details at  Ipsos poll on immigration

Labour jump, National slump in Roy Morgan

The September Roy Morgan poll has the main parties bouncing around.

  • National 41.5% (down from 46.0)
  • Labour 33.5% (up from 25.5)
  • Greens 12.0% (down from 14.5)
  • NZ First 8.5% (down from 9.5)
  • Maori Party 2.0% (up from 1.5)
  • ACT Party 1.0% (no change)
  • Conservative Party 0.5% (down from 1.0)
  • Mana 0% (down from 0.5)
  • United Future 0% (no change)
  • Other 1.0% (up from 0.5)

Who knows why National has dropped from 53% in July to 46% in August to 41.5% in September.

Or why Labour laboured on 25.5 for both Julu and August and then jumped 8% to 35.5 this month, when Andrew Little was hardly visible.

It would be wise not to get hopes up or down to much over this result.




Labour’s internal poll

Following advice from Labour chief Andrew Little’s acting chief of staff Andrew Little, acting chief press officer Andrew Little has revealed the private Labour poll that Little swears by, in contrast to Little’s lack of confidence in Colmar Brunton’s latest public poll.


This shows Labour within the range they have been in polls for months, albeit higher than the 26% in Colmar’s latest.

It also has National on the lowest poll result for eight years. No wonder Little wanted this to be true.

But it is just one poll. And in making a big issue out of yesterday’s poll Little has probably done himself any PR favours. His press secretary has let him down.


Immigration poll – One News

Deciding immigration numbers and policy by public opinion is a bit crazy but One News Colmar Brunton have a poll on it.

Despite all the adverse publicity about immigration and a move against it a majority still think that immigration numbers are about right or we should have more.

Do you think the Government should let fewer immigrants in, let more in or is the number about right?

  • Fewer migrants in 38% (up from 27%)
  • Numbers about right 44% (down from 51%
  • More migrants in 13% (down from 18%)

As immigration and related issues like housing, employment, work visas and international students is quite complex and most people are unlikely to know much about how they interrelate in detail this poll is quite simplistic.

I don’t think the Government will be very worried about the result.

For some as yet unexplained reason One News are holding back the party part of their poll back for tomorrow night.

Dwindling support for Monarchy

A poll commissioned by New Zealand Republic suggests that support for a monarchy is falling significantly.


  • The next British Monarch becomes King of New Zealand 34%
  • New Zealand has a New Zealander as Head of State elected by a two thirds majority in Parliament 15%
  • New Zealand has a New Zealander as Head of State who is elected by the popular vote 44%


There was no poll option for no head of state above our current Prime Minister.

Support for a New Zealand head of State amongst younger people (aged 18-30) was 76%, and for those 61 and over it was 53%.

Newshub reported Monarchists not amused by poll backing republic

Monarchists are brushing off a new poll which suggests New Zealand is heading towards becoming a republic, instead saying it’s unlikely to happen in the next 500 years.

“I’m a little sceptical of these numbers,” Monarchy New Zealand’s Sean Palmer told Paul Henry on Monday.

“This was a poll that was paid for and conducted by Republicans – I’m a bit surprised they didn’t find 120 percent in support of a republic.”

The poll was carried out by David Farrar’s Curia Research – Farrar is a promoter of a New Zealand Republic – but that’s lame.

April 2014 – What is your preference for New Zealand’s next Head of State out of the following three options?

  • The next British Monarch becomes King of New Zealand 46%
  • New Zealand has a New Zealander as Head of State elected by a two thirds majority in Parliament 11%
  • New Zealand has a New Zealander as Head of State who is elected by the popular vote 33%

Support for a New Zealand head of State amongst younger people (aged 18-30) was 66%

Source: Scoop – Latest Poll: Support for NZ head of state is up

Spinning a poll

The latest Roy Morgan poll is out – summary here.

Te Reo Putake shows how to spin a poll at The Standard in Roy Morgan August; Nat’s Down 7%

The National Party have a dropped a massive 7%, though to be fair that probably just reflects the folks at RM tweaking their methodology so they don’t get laughed at again.

If the folks at Roy Morgan read TRP’s ‘analysis’ of their poll they would be the ones laughing.

Just about everyone, including folks at The Standard, expected National wouldn’t stay at last months unusually high 53%.

Labour’s support stays at 25.5% (unchanged), Greens 14.5% (up 3%) and NZ First 9.5% (up 2.5%).

TRP ignores Labour being unchanged at 25.5% – that’s an awful result for his party.

If Andrew Little can stitch up a coalition deal with Winston, they’ll have a comfortable majority in the next parliament.

If Labour can stitch up a deal with both NZ First and Greens – which with these results would put them about even (24%) with Labour. Labour would barely have a majority in a coalition and would only have about quarter of the seats in Parliament.

This poll continues the overall trend of the three opposition parties being in touching distance of a win (if they cooperate) and National not having enough oomph to get over the line without help from their pet poodles.

Would Peters enable a Labour led Government when Labour are only on 25%, compared to National in the mid forties?

They’ll be desperate now to make sure that the Maori Party and Peter Dunne make it back.

I read that as ‘Labour will be desperate to make sure that the Maori Party and Peter Dunne don’t make it back in’.

However, with the Labour/Green understanding in place, it’s likely that Labour will win all the maori seats, and Ohariu, leaving National 4-6 seats shy of a win.

The Labour/Green Memorandum of Understanding was aimed at trying to get Labour+Greens big enough to form a government with few or no other seats required. That means Labour need to be much closer to 35% than 25%, something TRP seems to be ignoring.

Andrew Little was very disparaging of the Maori Party on Waatea 5th estate last night – see Waatea 5th Estate – Labour v NZ First. With the Maori King dumping support for them Labour may have a fight on their hands keeping their Maori seats, let alone taking Flavell’s off him.

A dose of reality in comments from billmurray:

te reo uptake, You need to get a grip, Labour down to 25.5% is a disaster and as a supporter you need to start telling the truth about the 25.5%, what it really means is only 26 people out of 100 eligible voters think that Labour should be occupying the government benches, 74 people say they should not.
Or of course it could be a rogue poll!!!!!!!. I could say LOL at this point but this is a serious matter and we must be truthful with ourselves or we face ridicule at the election.

Something is seriously wrong that we are not attracting voters or getting traction over the housing problem, or am I the only one who believes that to be the case?.

Something is seriously wrong with Labour, and pretending it isn’t is not just spin, it’s denial.

TRP responded:

Labour’s vote at 25.5% is unchanged in this poll, billmurray. The significant mover is National.

Unchanged at rock bottom – Labour dropped below polls to a record low 25.1 % last election – can’t be glossed over.

I noted in the post that, really, this poll just re-aligns Roy Morgan with reality.

His emphasis was a ‘massive drop’ for National while ignoring that Labour had already dropped and were stuck at the bottom of their range.

It’s all about the coalition and while Peters is no fan of the Greens, I don’t think that’s an insurmountable obstacle.

Nothing is insurmountable with Winston, especially if NZ First gets 15% (that looks feasible) to Labour’s 20-25% (also feasible).

My gut feeling is that Peters wants to be the guy that brings Key down. Sweet revenge for costing him 3 years in the wilderness in 2008.

Wishful thinking, which is about all TRP can do on these numbers. Does Winston want to prop Andrew Little up?

But, whatever happens, on these numbers, control of forming the next Government is out of Key’s hands.

Much could happen to the numbers over the next year.

But on these numbers Key would be likely to have a major say in the forming of the next Government, possibly without needing Winston still.

If control was out of Key’s hands on 46% how much control would Little have on 25.5%? Even if he could cobble together a coalition his control of Government would be precarious.

Te Reo Putake’s ignoring of poll reality may or may not be intentional, but it’s symptomatic of how out of touch Labour has become.

Another Auckland housing poll

Polling on house prices seems to be in fashion. Following the release of UMR poll details on housing – see Poll on house prices (no party poll release this time) – The Spinoff has also asked some housing questions via SSI.


The median house price in Auckland has jumped by 85% over the last four years, with the average home now costing roughly 10 times the average household income. The corresponding figure before 1990 was around four times median income.

“Have you in the last two years considered moving away from Auckland because of house prices?”

  • Yes 32.2%
  • No, but it’s a good idea 36.3%
  • No 31.5%

Some of those will be thinking of looking for somewhere with more affordable housing so they can buy their first home, while others who already have homes will be wanting to take advantage of their surge in value with a view to buying a cheaper and perhaps better house elsewhere.

Obviously employment will be a major factor – many won’t be able to move away from their jobs.

“Do you think we have a housing crisis in Auckland?”

  • Yes 84%
  • No 10.3%
  • Don’t know 5.7%

I find the obsession with media and opposition parties to dramatically label things is a bit pointless.

A crisis “is any event that is, or is expected to lead to, an unstable and dangerous situation affecting an individual, group, community, or whole society”.

If the media and opposition had chosen to promote a different label then it would probably have rated highly when they polled on it.

“Why do you think we have a housing crisis?”

  • Foreign investors 55.7%
  • Government inaction 39.6%
  • Developers + speculators 38.5%
  • Incompetent Auckland council 28.8%
  • Selfish NIMBY baby boomers 9.1%
  • Over cautious Reserve Bank 7.8%
  • Ungrateful spendthrift Millenials 3.9%
  • Too much immigration 3.3%

Multiple responses were allowed. There is no ‘Other’.

This probably reflects more on media coverage over the past few months than anything. Is there any way of telling how close to reality it is?

It’s interesting that immigration barely rates.

Poll details:

Survey Sampling International (SSI) conducted an online survey among a representative sample of 760 Auckland residents aged 18 and over with quota applied to gender, age and region within Auckland. All respondents were screened to ensure they were New Zealand residents and eligible to vote. The polling period was 17-19 August and the margin of error is +/- 3.6%.

More polling and commentary at The Spinoff – One in three Aucklanders has recently considered quitting Auckland because of house prices – poll


Poll on house prices

According to Hive News UMR released a poll on housing yesterday, but I can’t find anything about it at UMR, only at Hive News and other websites that refer to Hive. So I’ll extract what I can from Hive News Tuesday: Poll finds 60% Aucklanders want lower house prices;

Nationwide (964 respondents) prefer house prices to:

  • to fall but not too much 37%
  • to fall dramatically 26%
  • keep rising at a slower pace 10%
  • keep rising rapidly 4%

Home owners wanted house prices:


  • to fall but not too much 40%
  • to fall dramatically 15%
  • rise at a slower pace 13%
  • rise rapidly 2%



  • wanted house prices to keep rising rapidly 4%
  • wanted house prices to rise at a slower pace 13%
  • prefer that house prices either fell a bit or fell dramatically over the next year 60%

They also asked if respondents thought there was a housing crisis:

  • Yes 81%
  • No 14%
  • Unsure 5%

I think these are the numbers but can’t guarantee I have sorted out the Hive jumble.

The poll of 1,000 New Zealanders over the age of 18 was taken from July 29 to August 17 through UMR’s online omnibus survey. There were 633 home owners and 331 Aucklanders who took the poll. UMR conducts polls for Labour.

The young vote in the US

A lot of young people in the US are not happy with the current political system and what it delivers. Many of them are also not happy with the two major party choices in the presidential  election.

Bernie Sanders got a lot of his support from the younger age group. This demographic now has the dilemma of whether to punish Hillary in the polling booths, or doing what they can to keep Donald Trump out.

There could be a rise in support for other candidates – there are others standing for president but it’s hard to tell what impact this will have on the end result.

Alternet: Are Young Voters Sick of the Two-Party System?

As the reality of a “binary choice” between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump becomes all too clear, a large portion of young voters are rejecting the two-party system that has long dominated the U.S. political scene.

According to a poll by GenForward, only 28 percent of people in the crucial 18-30 demographic agree that the “two major parties do a good job of representing the American people.”

The future looks even bleaker for the Republicans: more than two-thirds of young voters—and especially young minority voters—say the Grand Old Party does not care about them. (First step to fix this, I humbly submit: choose a more subtle, less ageist nickname.)

Comparatively, support among millennials is much stronger for the Democratic Party. Fifty-three percent of young Americans say Democrats care about the issues important to them. According to a USA Today poll, about half of young people surveyed identify as Democrats or Democratic-leaning.

Bernie gave many of them hope for something radically different, but Clinton, the establishment candidate, got the nomination.

“It’s hard to overemphasize how completely and utterly Sen. Bernie Sanders dominated the youth vote to this point in the 2016 presidential campaign,” the Washington Post reported in June. “In the 2016 campaign, Sanders won more votes among those under age 30 than the two presumptive major-party presidential nominees combined. And it wasn’t close.”

A 2014 Pew study found that people born after 1980, “are more racially diverse and socially liberal than any other age group,” the New York Times reports. And while millennials tend to agree the Democratic Party is generally more in line with their liberal values, “40 percent of those in this age group say they are politically independent.”

That’s a lot of potential swing voters. Their problem this year is the poor choices they have for major party candidates.

Among those early supporters of a Sanders presidency and progressive platform, a July poll by the Hill found almost half were considering supporting a third-party candidate in lieu of Clinton.

That could easily make the difference – between votes for Clinton and Trump.

The Economic Times: Majority of US young adults reject Donald Trump: Poll

Despite US Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump’s strategy of patching together a bipartisan coalition by appealing to the millions of young supporters of former Democratic candidate Bernie Sanders, a new poll found that his populist play had so far failed among millennials.

The latest USA Today/Rock the Vote poll released on Sunday found that while 56 per cent of voters under 35 say they would vote for Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton, one in five in this age .

The number of the Millennial generation, now 18-34, was estimated to be 75.4 million.

About half of all those polled (54% of Trump supporters and 51% of Clinton supporters) say they will vote to keep one candidate out rather then for the other candidate. The least worst voting option.

Yesterday I spoke with a twenty year old from Idaho, currently studying at Otago.

She said she feels embarrassed about the state of politics and the candidates on offer. She has been politically active – she didn’t say but I suspect she was one of the Sanders supporters. She will probably vote to keep Trump out, so she is similar to many who were polled.

They may have missed out getting their preferred candidate nominated this time but the young voters may be a deciding demographic if someone can tap into their determination to do things markedly different. That looks like having to wait until 2020, but by then it may take someone closer to their age group than Sanders, who I suspect won’t try again then. He turns 75 next month.