EU election results

The official results website:

This shows some changes away from larger centre right and centre left parties, but not a big overall shift.

This is pretty astonishing. BBC projects that the Liberals/Green/Left/Social Democrats will have 359 seats in EU parliament, vs 358 seats in the previous one.

The populists-nationalists seem to have gained ~35 seats but overall the non-centrist right is up by only about 19, probably in large part driven by the collapse of the UK Conservatives.

Clearly the main centre-left and centre-right factions have weakened a lot. But this is a *party political* problem, so why do we report it as a change in the hearts and minds of voters? What’s amazing to me is how consistent broad political opinion looks, in both directions.

Here’s that populism word again.

Farage is talking tough, but Brexit is still going to be a tough thing to sort out.

Easy win for Macron in French election

French state TV vote estimate: Macron 65.1%, Le Pen 35.9%

That’s no surprise, opinion polls had suggested a result close to that.



The results of Sunday’s French presidential election run off  are expected from about 6 am New Zealand time.


Initial reporting suggests a high abstention in the French election.

Two weeks ago the French voting in London had to wait up to 3 hours to vote, however, reports this morning suggest that the queues were much shorter today.

Results are expected around 7pm BST (about 6am NZ time)

From live coverage from The Guardian:

If turnout projections of about 74% are correct, it would be the lowest in the second round of a French presidential election since 1969.

This is not unexpected in a contest as unique as that between the independent centrist Macron and far-right Le Pen, neither of whom have the formal backing of a mainstream political group, say analysts.

Yves-Marie Cann of pollsters Elabe told L’Express that the 1969 election, when the rate of abstention was a record 31.1%, was similarly exceptional, featuring two centre-right candidates: Georges Pompidou and Alain Poher.

How does France’s system of vote estimates work?