Roy Morgan September poll

For some reaason Roy Morgan have just released their poll done through September so in the context of an election campaign it is a bit out of date but may be of interest on the eve of election day (note that about 1.7 million people have already voted).

  • Labour 47.5% (August 48%)
  • National 28.5% (August 28.5%)
  • Greens 9.5% (August 11.5%)
  • ACT 7% (August 6%)
  • NZ First 2.5% (August 2.5%)
  • TOP 1.5% (August 1%)
  • Maori Party 0.5% (August 0.5%)
  • Other 3% (August 2%)

Those results aren’t a lot different to other recent polls, although they have National a bit lower and Greens a bit higher.

Trends seem quite steady (also like other polls):

Government confidence is also quite stable.

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a NZ-wide cross-section of 911 electors during September. Of all electors surveyed 6% (up 0.5%) didn’t name a party. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?

http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8543-nz-national-voting-intention-september-2020-202010142349

Roy Morgan poll – August 2020

The Roy Morgan polls results for August have been published – remember that unusually they poll right through the month, which may make it harder to analyse the results.

Labour have eased slightly but are still well ahead. National have come up a little but are still a very distant second.

Greens have risen quite a bit over the last two months, but have been regularly polling much higher in Roy Morgan polls than with other major polls.

  • Labour 48% (down 5.5%)
  • National 28.5% (up 2%)
  • Greens 11.5% (up 3.5%)
  • ACT Party 6% (down 0.5%)
  • NZ First 2.5% (up 1)
  • The Opportunities Party 1% (down 0.5%)
  • Maori Party 0.5% (no change)

No result for the JLR/conspiracy parties.

Roy Morgan are usually favourable for the Greens, and this won’t have been affected much by the Green School debacle, but they look sort of safe at this stage.

NZ First have a lot of ground to make up.

National are a way off the pace and look very unlikely to seriously challenge Labour. The biggest point of interest at this stage is whether Labour have enough to govern on their own or not (or with the greens but not needing Green votes to implement their policies of choice).

It’s still six weeks until the election but there would need to be major unexpected events to substantially change the outcome.

Source: https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8509-nz-national-voting-intention-august-2020-202008310343

Combined poll results from Opinion polling for the 2020 New Zealand general election

Roy Morgan poll – June 2020

The June poll from Roy Morgan has just been released – polling was done during June so before the Covid information leak, Walker resignation  and aftermath, and well before Todd Muller stepping down from the leadership, but it is still bd news for National.

  • Labour 54.5% (down 2)
  • National 27% (up 0.5)
  • Greens 9% (up 2)
  • ACT 5% (up 1.5)
  • NZ First 1.5% (down 1)
  • The Opportunities Party 1.5% (up 0.5)
  • Maori Party 1% (down 0.5%)

Labour are looking very comfortable, and Greens and Act will be very happy with their rises.

NZ First remain in a precarious position with it seems little interest in keeping Winston Peters in Parliament.

It is looking very grim for National, and that’s before the really bad week and a half began.

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a NZ wide cross-section of 879 electors during June. Of all electors surveyed 6% (up 0.5%) didn’t name a party. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”

 

Roy Morgan poll – Labour 56.5%, National 26.5%

Roy Morgan stopped publishing monthly polls in New Zealand after the 2017 election but they have started again, and the news remains grim for National.

This is the first poll they have published this year but they have previous month comparisons – their detailed results show polling each month this year.

If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”

  • Labour 56.5% (January 40%, March 42.5%, April 55%)
  • National 26.5% (January 40%, March 37 %, April 30.5%)
  • Greens 7% (January 10.5%, March 11.5%, April 7%)
  • NZ First 2.5% (January 7.2%, March 3%, April 2.5%)
  • ACT Party 3.5% (January 0.5%, March 3.5%, April 2.5%)
  • Maori Party 1.5% (April 1.5%)
  • The Opportunities Party 1% (April 0.5%)

Labour is very similar to recent Colmar Brunton and Reid Research results, but Natiional has trended down a bit more. This is their lowest result for a long time.

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is at a very high 158.5 in May, down 4.5pts from the record high of 163 reached in April

76% of New Zealand electors (down 1% since April) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to only 17.5% (up 3.5%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a NZ wide cross-section of 894 electors during April 27 – May 24, 2020. Of all electors surveyed 5.5% (down 0.5%) didn’t name a party.

https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8429-nz-national%20-voting-intention-may-2020-202006010651


While this result doesn’t look good for new national leader Todd Muller, it is too soon to tell what effect he has had on National’s popularity – the polling period was to 24 May and Muller only took over on 22 May.

Poll: most important problems facing New Zealand

A Roy Morgan poll on most important general issues facing New Zealand compared to the world shows that economic issues, inequality and housing are of most concern.

Most Important Problems Facing New Zealand and the World - February 2018

And the most important specific New Zealand issues compared to the world.

It’s not surprising to see economic issues so high, including inequality, and in New Zealand housing is also of major concern.

Interesting to see that New Zealand is significantly less concerned about environmental issues.

Perhaps this is why the Greens are so keen on advocating on social issues.

Source: Economic Issues dominate New Zealand concerns early in 2018

 

Surge in New Zealand confidence rating

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating: 146.5 pts (up 15.5 pts)

This is the highest confidence rating since January 2010, which was in the first term of the John Key led National government.

 “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in New Zealand are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

  • Right direction 66.5% (up from 58.5%)
  • Wrong direction 20% (down from 27.5%)
  • Can’t say 13.5% (little change from 14%)

That’s a positive shift.

National supporters may generally still have confidence while Labour/Green/NZ First supporters will have gained confidence.

 

Roy Morgan: New PM Jacinda Ardern drives surge in New Zealand Government Confidence

 

 

Government supported in latest RM poll

The November Roy Morgan poll suggests a shift in support towards Labour and Greens since the election, but NZ First has slipped.

National are still slightly ahead of Labour, but have dropped.

  • National 40.5% (election 44.45%, October 46%)
  • Labour 39.5% (election 36.89%, October 31%)
  • Greens 10% (election 6.27%, October 11%)
  • NZ First 5% (election 7.2%, October 6.5%)
  • ACT 0.5% (election 0.5%, October 0.5%)
  • TOP 2% (election 2.44%, October 2%)
  • Maori Party 1.5% (election 1.18%, 1.5%)
  • Other 1% (election 1.07%, October 1.5%)

Labour+Greens are 49.5%, and Labour+NZ First+Greens are 54.5%, the highest

This is early days for the new Government but indications are that there is general support for it.

The October poll was taken not long after the September election and during coalition negotiations, which may explain it’s swings, especially for Labour.

A poll at this stage doesn’t mean a lot but is of some interest as it indicates that the Labour led government seems to be generally well supported.

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your
party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by
telephone – both landline and mobile – with a NZ wide cross-section of 887 electors during
October 30 – November 12, 2017. Of all electors surveyed 2% (down 1.5%) didn’t name a party.

 

Summary: New PM Jacinda Ardern drives surge in New Zealand Government Confiden

Detail: Tableau PDF

Roy Morgan post-election poll

The first post-election poll is from Roy Morgan:

  • National 46%
  • Labour 31%
  • Greens 11%
  • NZ First 6.5%
  • TOP 2.0%
  • Maori Party 1.5%
  • ACT Party 0.5%

It’s a bit surprising to see Labour down 5% from their election result, and Greens up 5% on  their’s

Combined totals:

  • Labour+Greens 42%
  • Labour+NZ First 37.5%
  • Labour+Greens+NZ First 48.5%

The polling period was 25 September to 8 October, so straight after the election but before Winston Peters chose tenable a government with Labour and Greens.

Of course these results don’t matter but they are of a little bit of interest to see how the public views the parties after the election.

Election results since MMP started plus polls before and after this election:

RoyMorgan1996-2017Elections

http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/7379-roy-morgan-new-zealand-voting-intention-october-2017-201710270443

 

 

 

Blog responses to CB poll

It’s interesting to see blog responses to polls. With some it depends very much on the results.

Last night a Colmar Brunton poll showed a significant swing for National and against Labour.

Whale Oil tends to be slow reacting to news, especially news they don’t like. So far they have only one post on the poll, and it’s bizarre – Face of the Day:

Meet Gary Morgan.  The Man At The Top at Roy Morgan Research.  He may be, in the end, the most powerful influencer of how this election turned out.

That on it’s own is an odd claim.

Well, I think he should hide in his office for the day.  Even though I have no doubt there has not been anything shady going on, the end result is that the widely swinging poll, and specifically its timing, is hugely damaging to the Labour party.

That has to be the shoddiest bit of polling yet.   It wouldn’t surprise me if the left will accuse Roy Morgan of deliberately screwing with the election in favour of National.

The shoddiness is in the post.

That’s last night’s Colmar Brunton poll. Roy Morgan has nothing to do with it.

And it is dirty and devious to use ‘the left’ to imply a deliberately screwed poll.

Has ‘Whaleoil Staff’ really got confused between Roy Morgan and Colmar Brunton? Or is it deliberate confusion to attack the pollsters and the poll result?

Meanwhile The Standard is usually very quick to have posts on Labour friendly polls, but as is common last night’s poll has not appeared anywhere apart from in last night’s Daily Review 20/09/2017.

Instead Anthony Robins continues his posts attacking National:

Is NZ doomed to lying politics now?

Bill English and the Nats are now running firmly on a platform of lies – Gower calls them on this for a second time this week. Should the political left get down in the gutter too? Is NZ doomed to lying politics now?

Sounds defeatist.

Nats “discovered poverty last week” – and will forget it just as quickly

Ardern’s jab that English “discovered poverty last week” was the line of the debate. After the election National will forget it again just as quickly, if the record of the last nine years is anything to go by. Do you want to vote for that?

Why do Labour supporters put so much effort into attacking National at The Standard when they have a largely left wing audience.

The Standard (resident trolls and moderators) actively try to drive away anyone judged to be a National supporter. Even those in the centre, or non-aligned, or deemed to be not left enough get attacked and banned.

So they are hardly going to swing many votes away from National by attacking them.

And there is a stark contrast between Jacinda Ardern’s ‘relentlessly positive’ and The Standard’s ‘relentlessly negative’.

Note that there are some positive Green posts at The Standard these days but Green supporters are prominent in their negative attacks.

Roy Morgan: key issues

Quite different to others, but quite different choices and wording of issues.

“The economy and financial crisis” – what financial crisis?

Over a similar (but shorter) time period from Reid Research

There was no health option from Roy Morgan.

I think it’s difficult to get much out polls like this.

https://yournz.org/2017/09/14/poll-the-big-issues/