Blog responses to CB poll

It’s interesting to see blog responses to polls. With some it depends very much on the results.

Last night a Colmar Brunton poll showed a significant swing for National and against Labour.

Whale Oil tends to be slow reacting to news, especially news they don’t like. So far they have only one post on the poll, and it’s bizarre – Face of the Day:

Meet Gary Morgan.  The Man At The Top at Roy Morgan Research.  He may be, in the end, the most powerful influencer of how this election turned out.

That on it’s own is an odd claim.

Well, I think he should hide in his office for the day.  Even though I have no doubt there has not been anything shady going on, the end result is that the widely swinging poll, and specifically its timing, is hugely damaging to the Labour party.

That has to be the shoddiest bit of polling yet.   It wouldn’t surprise me if the left will accuse Roy Morgan of deliberately screwing with the election in favour of National.

The shoddiness is in the post.

That’s last night’s Colmar Brunton poll. Roy Morgan has nothing to do with it.

And it is dirty and devious to use ‘the left’ to imply a deliberately screwed poll.

Has ‘Whaleoil Staff’ really got confused between Roy Morgan and Colmar Brunton? Or is it deliberate confusion to attack the pollsters and the poll result?

Meanwhile The Standard is usually very quick to have posts on Labour friendly polls, but as is common last night’s poll has not appeared anywhere apart from in last night’s Daily Review 20/09/2017.

Instead Anthony Robins continues his posts attacking National:

Is NZ doomed to lying politics now?

Bill English and the Nats are now running firmly on a platform of lies – Gower calls them on this for a second time this week. Should the political left get down in the gutter too? Is NZ doomed to lying politics now?

Sounds defeatist.

Nats “discovered poverty last week” – and will forget it just as quickly

Ardern’s jab that English “discovered poverty last week” was the line of the debate. After the election National will forget it again just as quickly, if the record of the last nine years is anything to go by. Do you want to vote for that?

Why do Labour supporters put so much effort into attacking National at The Standard when they have a largely left wing audience.

The Standard (resident trolls and moderators) actively try to drive away anyone judged to be a National supporter. Even those in the centre, or non-aligned, or deemed to be not left enough get attacked and banned.

So they are hardly going to swing many votes away from National by attacking them.

And there is a stark contrast between Jacinda Ardern’s ‘relentlessly positive’ and The Standard’s ‘relentlessly negative’.

Note that there are some positive Green posts at The Standard these days but Green supporters are prominent in their negative attacks.

Roy Morgan: key issues

Quite different to others, but quite different choices and wording of issues.

“The economy and financial crisis” – what financial crisis?

Over a similar (but shorter) time period from Reid Research

There was no health option from Roy Morgan.

I think it’s difficult to get much out polls like this.

https://yournz.org/2017/09/14/poll-the-big-issues/

Recent polls – a roundabout indication in a campaign of swings

Polls have been giving quite a range of results over the last month. There have been significant movements in support, and there has seemed to be discrepancies between some of the results, but this has been confused by different polling periods. Different polling methods are also being used.

Poll-of polls are of limited use and could be misleading because of:

  • the swings and apparent volatility of the polls
  • averaging a few polls conducted over different dates is statistically dubious

I think we have to just see what we can in the polls and understand they are changing, they are subject to margins of error and polling errors, and they cannot predict a future election result.

Here are the last six polls from the polling companies with established records.

PollsElection2017

This suggests:

  • The last Reid Research result for National is out of step with the others
  • Labour support has been bouncing around
  • NZ First support has been bouncing around
  • The Roy Morgan result for Greens looks out of step but Greens could have recovered

Note that since these polls were taken:

  • Labour did their u-turn on tax
  • Winston Peters had his bizarre interview with Guyon Espiner
  • James Shaw had a very good interview with Guyon Espiner
  • The news broke about the Saudi sheep saga that may affect National

I think there may still be a lot of uncertainty amongst swing voters.

My observations and possibilities from now:

  • The ‘mood for change’ may win the election for Labour with possible options of either Greens or NZ First in coalition
  • There may be a move back to the known, that is, to National – or conversely voters may give up on National
  • It looks unlikely National will have a majority on their own (no party has had one since MMP)
  • Both the Greens and NZ First look vulnerable and are at risk of missing the threshold
  • There is an obvious tension between Labour and Green support due to Labour leaning voters wanting to rescue the Greens but also wanting to give Labour as strong a mandate as possible
  • The smaller parties have been left on the sidelines

I think this election is very open still, and could easily be decided by whichever way things swing on election day.

A large number of people have been advance voting – 229,259 up to Thursday and likely to be close to 300,000 up to Friday. This is due to more publicity about advance voting, more polling places, polling in public places, and enthusiasm of people who have already made up their minds.

However undecided voters are likely to leave it late to decide and to vote. Many will make their decision on election day.

Also significant will be whether there is a swing to deciding and voting, or a swing to giving up trying and not voting.

So what has happened in the last few days and what happens next week could make a significant impact on the outcome.

Polls are useful indicators for those of us who are swing voters, especially so for tactical voters.

In current day politics polls are only approximate indicators. They are subject to late changes, as is evident from the polls over the last month here, and from elections elsewhere like in the US and UK.

We the voters can glean some useful information from the polls, but we should be very sceptical about what media headlines and pundits say about what they mean.

We should make up our own minds about what the polls mean about our vote.

And ultimately we will make up our own minds about how we vote, or if we vote. Then the polls will mean absolutely nothing apart from providing fodder for a few media stories after the election.

Roy Morgan poll – September 2017

The latest Roy Morgan poll favours Labour+Greens, National are stranded at 40%.

  • National 40% (down from 42.5)
  • Labour 39.5% (up from 32.5)
  • Greens 9% (no change)
  • NZ First 6% (down from 11.5)
  • Maori Party 2.0% (up from 1.5)
  • ACT Party 0.5% (no change)
  • Conservatives 0.5% (up from 0)
  • Other 2.5% (no change)

TOP will be included in ‘other’.

Different again with National and Labour virtual level pegging relatively low. Greens higher than other polls.

The only thing consistent is NZ First down at 6%.

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a NZ wide cross-section of 866 electors during August 28 – September 10, 2017. Of all electors surveyed 5% (down 1.5%) didn’t name a party.

So this is a longer polling period and is more dated (partially at least) than both the recent Colmar Brunton and Reid Research polls.

http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/7339-roy-morgan-new-zealand-voting-intention-september-10-2017-201709151750

 

Consumer confidence 3 year high

The ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence is at a 3 year high.

SUMMARY

  • ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence hit a three-year high in September. It points to an ongoing decent pace of spending and activity growth.

  • The softer housing market and election uncertainty have failed to dent consumer optimism.

  • House price expectations cooled further, while inflation expectations were steady.

Nothing appears able to clip consumers’ wings at present. The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index lifted from 126.2 to 129.9 in September, which is the highest level since July 2014. Once we adjust for seasonality, the index rose by 2 points to also be at its highest level since July 2014. After its recent low in April, the seasonally adjusted index has surged over 15 points.

ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating - September 2017 - 129.9

So things look good for whoever the new government is.

http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/7341-anz-roy-morgan-new-zealand-consumer-confidence-rating-september-2017-201709141420

 

‘Most important problems facing New Zealand’

Roy Morgan has a poll that gauges what are the most important problems facing New Zealand, and compares that with the World.

Respondents were asked: “What do you think is the most important problem facing the World today?” and then “What do you think is the most important problem facing New Zealand today?”

Most Important Problems Facing New Zealand and The World - August 2017

That’s quite a different response on ‘War & Terrorism’, indicating New Zealanders see major problems around the world but don’t think they apply here.

In text: Most Important Problem Facing New Zealand:

  • Economic Issues 27.9%
  • Housing/Homelessness 26%
  • Social Issues 15.6%
  • Government/Public policy/Human rights 11.1%
  • Environmental Issues 8.0%
  • Health Issues 3.6%
  • War & Terrorism 0%

People’s voting considerations are much more complex than single issues though.

Specific problems:

Most Important Problems Facing New Zealand and the World - August 2017

Text: Most important problems facing New Zealand:

  • Poverty and the gap between rich and poor 16.5%
  • House prices and housing affordability 15.8%
  • Housing shortages and homelessness 10.2%
  • Government/Politicians/Political unrest 5.2%
  • Immigration/Refugees 4.8%

Source: Roy Morgan interviewed a representative cross-section of 1,003 New Zealanders in August 2017.

http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/7324-issues-facing-new-zealand-august-2017-201709081150

 

Recent polls for the Greens

The big dip in Green support shown in the Colmar Brunton poll published on Thursday caused consternation amongst Greens, with the usual claims of it being a bogus poll, or an outlier.

Some thought that it was proven inaccurate by the Roy Morgan poll published yesterday (Friday), but they failed to notice that while published after Colmar Brunton’s poll just about all of the RM polling was done before CB.

Both those pollsters plus Reid Research have show Green dives this month. Recent polls for the Greens:

  • RR 15 June: 12.5%
  • CB 1-5 July: 11%
  • RM 26 Jun-9 Jul: 13.5%
  • CB 22-27 July: 15%
  • RR 20-28 July: 13%
  • RR 2-8 August: 8.3%
  • RM 31 Jul-13 Aug: 9%
  • CB 12-16 August: 4.3%

All three polls show a significant dip in Green support in August, at the same time as Metiria Turei’s story as a beneficiary unravelled and disunity in the party became apparent.

RNZ’s last 4 poll average chart:

From Ardern turns the worm, but Green losses threaten left

The CB poll this week is the only one to be done after the resignations of Turei as co-leader and the withdrawal from the list of two Green MPs. We can’t be sure whether it was an accurate snapshot of Green support this week, or if it is an outlier.

It could be rock bottom for the Greens, as James Shaw claims, they and could bounce back by the time we get another poll.

Newshub (Reid Research) may be next to publish another poll, that would be useful to get an idea of how bad things are for the Greens.

Roy Morgan poll – August 2017

The latest Roy Morgan poll (NOTE: it is actually more out of date than the recent Colmar Brunton poll):

  • National 42.5% (down from 43)
  • Labour 32.5% (up from 30.5)
  • Greens 9% (down from 13.5)
  • NZ First 11.5% (up from 8)
  • Maori Party 1.5% (no change)
  • ACT Party 0.5% (down from 1)
  • United Future 0%
  • Conservative Party 0%
  • Other 2.5% (no change) – will include TOP

Polling period 31 July-13 August.

The Colmar Brunton poll was 12-16 August.

Turei stepped down as Green co-leader on 9 August.

RoyMorgan2017August

NZ First accused of leaking UMR poll

Winston Peters has generally trashed polls as fake and meaningless, but it looks like when they suit his purposes he isn’t averse to leaking them.

Two months ago from RNZ:  Peters calls polls fake, claims he’ll win 20% of vote

RNZ’s most recent poll-of-polls had New Zealand First sitting at 8.7 percent.

But Mr Peters said the media’s polls were fake – and his own polling put his party’s support far higher – closer to 20 percent.

“I’ve got the statistical evidence to prove it, I don’t know why the media carry on with their mindset and keep on boring people witless with scenarios that are not going to happen.”

I don’t think he produced any evidence, which isn’t unusual for him.

A week ago on RNZ:  Winston Peters says polls giving him 10% are fake

New Zealand First leader says media polls giving him 10 percent are fake and he’s going to get 20% in the election.

A Colmar Brunton poll had just been published with NZ First on 11%, up 2.

Then last Friday from Newshub:  Labour’s confidential polling leaked:

Newshub has been leaked poll results from the company that does Labour’s internal polling which show it is in big trouble, two-and-a-half months out from the election.

The results show Labour is on 26 percent support – crashing from 34 percent in May.

And New Zealand First, for the first time in three years of polling, is no longer the lowest rating party.

Winston Peters and co are on 14 percent – up 5 percent since May – just overtaking the Greens who are on 13 percent.

Peters didn’t slam this poll as fake.

The company, UMR, does the polling for Labour’s inner sanctum and the results are normally kept secret from the public.

Earlier in the year Little went public with a UMR poll that wasn’t as bad as usual for Labour.

Tonight the Labour Party and UMR said the results had not yet been released to the Labour Party and the leak must have come from a corporate client who had already been provided the results.

Today: Andrew Little accuses Winston Peters of leaking poll that made Labour look bad

Andrew Little is accusing Winston Peters of leaking poll results that are damaging to the Labour Party.

“Whenever you see something that’s reported as a leak, you look at who talks about it the most,” he told Newshub.

“I’m pretty sure NZ First has UMR as a pollster, so I think the leak – in inverted commas – is more likely from New Zealand First than anybody.”

This seems to have been confirmed by Duncan Garner.

Peters didn’t deny it, he avoided ‘reacting’.

“I’ve got no reaction to that. I couldn’t give a rat’s derriere what he says,” the NZ First leader told The AM Show on Monday. He wouldn’t reveal if NZ First used UMR for its polling.

“We don’t divulge who we talk to on the issue of polling… That’s not information you’re privy to… It’s none of your business.”

Mr Peters has been talking up the poll regardless, suggesting he’ll soon have the right to call himself leader of the Opposition.

“If [Labour] go from 26 down to 22, that’s it. Andrew is not in Parliament,” Mr Peters told The Nation on Saturday. “So why would you make these statements, that he’s the next leader of the country? Or the leader of the Opposition?”

It’s not unusual for politicians to trash polls and news they don’t like and then hypocritically promote what suits their purposes.

But UMR is just one poll, a Roy Morgan poll also published last week had NZ First on 8%. Peters would probably call that fake.

Peters has usually been staunch in not predicting election outcomes. On the Nation on Saturday:

Look, you know, one thing is very important in life, and that’s this – don’t count your chickens before they hatch.

But in another break from Peters tradition, in his speech to the NZ First congress on Sunday he closed with:

“So spread the word. This time, in our 24th year, we are going to transform the electoral system and we will be most definitely the Government.”

However he hasn’t produced a poll that backs that up yet.

National 43% in latest RM poll

National are back down to 43% in the latest Roy Morgan poll, similar to the 42% in the UMR poll covering a similar period – see Part of a UMR poll. However NZ First are on 8%, in contrast to their 14% in the UMR poll.

This poll was taken after all the Todd Barclay publicity (which continues), after the Labour intern issue broke but as it emerged (so it won’t have fully impacted), and before this week’s flare up between Greens and NZ First.

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” 

  • National 43% (Jan  46, Feb 48, Mar 43.5, Apr 43, May 43, Jun 46.5)
  • Labour 30.5% (Jan 27, Feb 26, Mar 29.5, Apr 29.5, May 28.5, Jun 25.5)
  • Greens 13.5% (Jan 12.5, Feb 13, Mar 14.5, Apr 13, May 14, Jun 14)
  • NZ First 8% (Jan 9, Feb 8, Mar 7.5, Apr 10.5, May 10, Jun 9)
  • Maori Party 1.5% (Jan 2, Feb 2, Mar 2, Apr 1, May 1.5, Jun 1.5)
  • ACT Party 1% (Jan 0.5, Feb 1, Mar 0.5, Apr 1.5, May 1, Jun 1)
  • United Future 0% (no change)
  • Conservatives 0% (no change)
  • Mana Party 0% (down from 0.5)
  • Internet Party 0% (no change)
  • Other 2.5% (Jan 2, Feb 2, Mar 1, Apr 1, May 1.5, Jun 2)

Of all electors surveyed 8.5% (up 2%) didn’t name a party.

This was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone – with a NZ wide cross-section of 868 electors during June 26 – July 9, 2017.

This leaves National and current support parties well short of a majority, on about the same level of support as Labour + Greens.

NZ First are in a position of choice, but Greens and NZ First showed their incompatibility this week.

RoyMorgan2017-July

Polling was done between June 26 and July 9.