The December Roy Morgan poll had National down 4.5to 45%, and Labour up 5.5 to 28%. These weren’t out of the ordinary movements but were predictably heralded by left wing blogs.
The Daily Blog: LATEST POLL SHOCK: National plummet to 45% Labour-Green jump to 43%
National have suffered a shock drop of 4.5% and Labour-Greens have jumped up 5.5% in the latest Roy Morgan Poll…
Typical exaggeration from Martyn Bradbury. It would be more shocking if RM polls stayed consistent.
The question as to whether or not National would retain its popularity post Key looks like it is getting answered.
That question hasn’t been answered at all by this poll.
The Standard: Nats take a plunge on the Roy Morgan roundabout
The erratic Roy Morgan poll has swung around again, Nats down 4.5% to 45% and Labour/ Greens up up 5.5% to 43%. Worryingly for the B-team, government confidence fell a “whopping” 10 points.
Less over the top but it was hardly a plunge, given that National was 42.5% in April, 43% in May and 41.5% in September (and swung to 48% in October and 49.5% in November).
This sort of over-excitement is to be expected from them, just as silence from them is the norm if polls move against them.
But Labour MP David Clark posted this on Facebook:
It has been an unusual political year. I wonder how much conflict within National’s ranks will cost them in next year’s election? Events like the frightened withdrawal in Mt Albert, the challenge to Todd Barclay, Jonathan Coleman’s unquenched ambition, and English’s early missteps in getting rid of broadcasting and housing portfolios – may have contributed to the sharp drop in the first public poll. Or is it just that people everywhere have decided it is time for a change?
Is Clark just trying to spin a line to his fan club or does he actually believe any of this?
The RM polling was actually being done (November 28-December 11) during the period that John Key resigned, Bill English was chosen as Prime Minister. English appointed his ministers and advised National wouldn’t stand a candidate in Mt Albert until after the polling period had finished.
Relative to normal poll fluctuations it wasn’t a ‘sharp drop’. The RM movements for National this year have been:
+1.5, -2.5, -3.5, +3, -2.5, +10, -7, -4.5, +6.5, +1.5, -4.5
National’s RM average over the year is 46.3%, well within the margin of error, so they haven’t finished far off that.
I hope Clark was just spinning a line. Otherwise his ignorance is alarming.
And also quite sad is Clark, The Standard and Bradbury seeming to accept Labour closing the year on 28.5% without concern.
Labour have only twice this year topped this, with 29.5% in May and 33.5% in September. For the rest of the year they have received 27.5, 27, 28, 26, 28, 25.5, 26.5, 23.
Labour have averaged 27.4% over the year and have closed just above that, which is similar to where they were leading into the 2014 election where they dropped to their lowest result for a long time at 25.13%
It will take several polls in the new year (and more than just the swinging Roy Morgan) to get a reasonable idea how party support is going are doing under English’s leadership.
To look like a strong lead party Labour really need to get up to 35-40% at least by next year’s election, otherwise at best they will have to share power with Greens and probably New Zealand First.
