On bogus polls

The biggest talking points from the latest One News Colmar Brunton poll is that Labour are languishing on 26%, down from 29% from their 28 May-2 June poll, and that Andrew Little has called the poll bogus.

One News: National rides high, Labour slips to lowest since election

Labour has been quick to attack the poll, leader Andrew Little saying the poll is “bogus” and he doesn’t accept it. He says he has seen other polls that tell a completely different story.

But he doesn’t say what that “completely different story” isUnless Little provides alternative poll details from the same polling period (3-7 September) then I call bullshit on his claim.

‘Sigh’ commented at The Standard:

Sure enough CV can’t wait more than a few minutes to put up a bullshit poll attacking Labour. Do you think he put up the recent Reid Research poll as quickly which showed Labour on 33?

As someone who has access to UMR polls this Colmar poll strikes me as completely out of whack.

That will be the better polling that Little is referring to, but it is not published so can’t be corroborated or compared.

UMR got closest to the last two election results. Colmar Brunton had National on something like 52%.

The last polls for Labour before the last election:

  • Colmar Brunton: 25.2%
  • UMR (Labour’s internal poll) 26.3%

Labour got 25.1%.

Details at Grumpollie: HOW DID THE POLLS DO? THE FINAL OUTCOME.

The last three Colmar Brunton polls this year:

  • Labour: 28, 29, 26
  • National: 50, 48, 48
  • Greens: 10, 12, 13
  • NZ First: 9, 9, 11

That looks quite consistent. Without having the details of UMR polls over the last six months it is impossible to compare.

The last published polls for Labour:

  • Colmar Brunton 3-7 September: 26%
  • Roy Morgan mid August: 25.5%
  • Reid Research 22 July – 3 August: 32.7%

Another of Labour’s Little helpers (Anne) at The Standard:

I haven’t seen the item yet but Little needs to constantly show disdain for these polls – especially those involving TV1 and TV3. There is an inbuilt bias favouring National and it goes back decades. He needs to openly treat them with the contempt they deserve.

He should also point out that the media generally is a disgrace by constantly giving the govt a free pass for their disastrous governance on many fronts while, at the same time, over-egging minor alleged indiscretions against Labour personnel.

Sock it to em Andrew. The masses perceive politeness as a weakness.

The masses perceive bullshit as bullshit.

Andrew Little is talking about this right now on Breakfast. He is citing Labour’s internal poll (no numbers or details given) and ‘another poll’.

Little then goes into Government bashing spiel, claiming that because National have done so poorly since the election he just doesn’t believe they would still be polling about the same now.

On National: “Is it conceivable that they would shed an ounce of popularity? I reject the poll”

“There is a range of polls going on you have to look at everything, I know we have had more support than previously”.

“I just think there is something wrong with that poll… it doesn’t stack up with any other polling I have seen”

He is ignoring the Roy Morgan poll?

He just doesn’t accept the Colmar Brunton poll result and he doesn’t it is credible.

He says you have to go with “the instinctual thing”, he talks to a lot of people and says he knows how it feels when the polls are 25-26% and it feels different to that now.

Ranting about unfavourable poll results is probably not an election winning strategy. It risks making one look out of touch and in denial.