1 News Colmar Brunton pre-election poll

The last 1 News Colmar Brunton poll before the election:

  • National 46% (last week 40%, previous 39%)
  • Labour 37% (last week 44%, previous 43%)
  • Greens 8% (last week 7%, previous 5%)
  • NZ First 5%  (last week 6%, previous 9%)
  • TOP 2.0% rounded (last week 2.0%, previous 1.9%)
  • Maori Party 1% rounded (last week 1.1%, previous 2.0%)
  • ACT 0.3% (last week 0.6%, previous 0.1%)

Don’t know 7%, Refused 6% (+1)

Momentum has swung back to National at the right time of the campaign for them, and the wrong time for Labour, who are shedding support all round.

Greens will be pleased to by lifting above the danger zone, but that will be at Labour’s expense.

NZ First continue to slip and are now in real danger of missing the threshold cut.

If NZ First survive then they may be in a deciding position. However if the miss the threshold and Peters loses Northland then National could rule again perhaps with ACT and the Maori Party in support.

Polling 16-19 September
Last week’s 9-13 September.
Previous polling period was 2-6 September.

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Bill English 37% (up from 32%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 31% (down from 34%)
  • Winston Peters 6% (5%)

Detailed results up to last week: http://www.colmarbrunton.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/Prelim_1-News-Colmar-Brunton-Poll-report-9-13-Sep.pdf

 

 

 

Consumer confidence 3 year high

The ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence is at a 3 year high.

SUMMARY

  • ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence hit a three-year high in September. It points to an ongoing decent pace of spending and activity growth.

  • The softer housing market and election uncertainty have failed to dent consumer optimism.

  • House price expectations cooled further, while inflation expectations were steady.

Nothing appears able to clip consumers’ wings at present. The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index lifted from 126.2 to 129.9 in September, which is the highest level since July 2014. Once we adjust for seasonality, the index rose by 2 points to also be at its highest level since July 2014. After its recent low in April, the seasonally adjusted index has surged over 15 points.

ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating - September 2017 - 129.9

So things look good for whoever the new government is.

http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/7341-anz-roy-morgan-new-zealand-consumer-confidence-rating-september-2017-201709141420

 

Newshub/Reid Research poll – huge reversal

The latest Newshub/Reid Research poll results show a huge reversal on the last Colmar Brunton polls.

Newshub: National could govern alone in latest Newshub poll

  • National 47.3% (last RR 43.3, last CB 39)
  • Labour 37.8% (last RR 39.4, last CB 43)
  • NZ First 6.0% (last RR 6.6, last CB 9)
  • Greens 4.9% (last RR 6.1, last CB 5)
  • TOP 1.6% (last RR 1.9, last CB 1.9)
  • Maori Party 1.1% (last RR 1.0, last CB 2.0)
  • ACT 0.6% (last RR 0.6, last CB )

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All the pundits will be busy revising all their scenarios.

But Patrick Gower is right about a key thing – party support appears to be volatile. Things could easily change over the next 11 days, although advance voting started yesterday.

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 31.7% (last RR 29.9, last CB 35)
  • Bill English  33.1% (last RR 30.1, last CB 31)
  • Winston Peters 6.9% (last RR 6.9, last CB 5)

The poll was conducted 6-11 September and has a margin of error of 3.1%.

The last Reid Research (RR) poll was conducted 22-30 August.
The last Colmar Brunton (CB) poll was conducted 2-6 September.

 

Listener poll – September 2017

The latest Listener has a party poll that has a similar result to the latest Colmar Brunton polls.

 

That shows a huge jump for Labour but very little movement for National. The percentages are misleading because in contrast to most polls, this includes the ‘Don’t Know’ portion of responses.

Taking ‘don’t know out we get:

  • Labour 41%
  • National 38%
  • NZ First 8%
  • Greens 7%
  • TOP 2%
  • Maori 1%
  • ACT 1%

Those are approximate because the source numbers are rounded, and the minor parties are too small to have any useful level of accuracy.

The poll canvassed 1528 New Zealanders aged 18-plus who are planning to vote in this year’s election and was taken from September 1-5.

This is the final Election Time Barometer of our election-year research. The results are weighted by age, gender and region, and the margin of error at the 95% confidence level is ±2.5%.

An interesting indication of ‘leader most capable of managing the economy’:

Source: http://www.noted.co.nz/currently/politics/poll-labour-national-and-the-crucial-8/

1 News Colmar Brunton – Labour still lead

The latest 1 News/Colmar Brunton poll:

  • Labour 43% (no change from 43%)
  • National 39% (down from 41%)
  • NZ First 9%  (up from 8%)
  • Greens 5% (no change)
  • TOP 1.9% (up from 0.9%)
  • Maori Party 2% rounded
  • ACT 0.1% (down from 0.3%)

So Labour have held on to their lead, and National have slipped a bit more (the Joyce effect?).

NZ First are steady-ish, and so are the Greens but still right on the threshold.

This poll was done between Saturday 2 September and Wednesday 6 September.

The last poll (in brackets) was conducted 26-30 August:

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 35% (up from 34%)
  • Bill English 31 (down from 33%)
  • Winston Peters 5% (up from 4%)

The full report from the last poll (they delay posting this by a couple of days).