Newshub/Reid research poll – similar results

The latest Newshub/Reid Research political poll is quite similar to the recent 1 News/Colmar Brunton poll, suggesting they are not far off the mark, for now at least.

  • Labour 50.1% (down 10.8) – CB 48%
  • National 29.6% (up 4.5) – CB 31%
  • Greens 6.5% (up 0.8) – CB 6%
  • ACT 6.3% (up 3) – CB 7%
  • New Conservatives 2.1% (up 1.2) – CB 1.6%
  • NZ First 1.9% (down 0.1) – CB 2.4%
  • Maori Party 1.5% (up 1.1) – CB 0.9%
  • TOP 0.9% (up 0.5) – 1.1%

Reid Research – interviewing between 16-23 September 2020, and 1000 people were surveyed – 700 by telephone and 300 by internet panel. It has a margin of error of 3.1 percent.

Colmar Brunton – interviewing from Thursday 17 to Monday 22 September 2020. Sample size 1008, sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level.

On the ‘margin of error’ (CB): This is the sampling error for a result around 50%. Results higher and lower than 50% have a smaller sampling error. For example, results around 10% and 5% have sampling errors of approximately ±1.9%-points and ±1.4%-points, respectively, at the 95% confidence level.

Labour – on current polls they could govern alone, but their support is slipping. They haven’t indicated that if they have a sole majority whether they would include the Greens in Government or not.

National are failing to get traction after a slump during Covid and two leadership changes. There’s no sign of things changing significantly for them. They are copping ongoing damaging flak for errors in their economic plan.

ACT continue to do very well, partly presumably at National’s expense, but also due to a successful term and a strong campaign from David Seymour. They’re looking likely to having several MPs again.

Greens have recovered from sub-threshold results and are looking more likely to survive in Parliament, probably as support for Labour slips, but the amount of leverage they get will depend on whether Labour needs them to form a government or not.

NZ First continue to fail to attract anywhere enough support. Winston Peters seems to have lost his midas touch and mojo. In contrast to Jacinda Ardern he looks last century.

Maori Party will have to rely on a surprise electorate victory to get back into Parliament.

NZ Conservatives have picked up support but probably nowhere near enough to make the threshold.

TOP is at the bottom.

Advance NZ don’t appear in the Reid Research poll.

Voting starts this coming Saturday (3 October) through to election day two weeks later on 17 October.

With early voting becoming more popular and also encouraged due to Covid time is running out for any parties to substantially change their support.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2020_New_Zealand_general_election

1 News/Colmar Brunton poll

The latest 1 News/Colmar Brunton poll:

  • Labour 48% (July 53%)
  • National 31% (July 32%)
  • ACT 7% (July 4.8%)
  • Greens 6% (July 5%)
  • NZ First 2% (July 2.0%)
  • New Conservatives 2% (July 1.2%)
  • Maori Party (July 1.0%)
  • TOP (July 1%)
  • Advance NZ 1%

These are rounds they do for their initial results and will be updated when the more accurate results are available.

Their last poll was done 25-29 July.

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 54% (July 54%)
  • Judith Collins 18% (July 20%)
  • David Seymour 2% (July 1%)
  • Winston Peters 2% (July 1%)

So as expected Labour are still looking very comfortable despite dropping a bit, but if they come down much more and Greens survive, as looks more likely, it may be a two party Government.

Greens seem to be benefiting from the ‘not Labour on their own’ sentiment.

National are just not making up any ground 9althoughb are higher than on some other recent polls).

ACT will remain confident.

NZ First look like they are being largely dismissed by voters. It’s going to be very tough for Peters from here, with Jones seeming to have pretty much conceded Northland already.

New Conservatives are gaining ground but probably too little, too late.

Maori Party have to win an electorate to get back in.

Advance NZ make their first showing but are a long way from the threshold.