Roy Morgan September poll

For some reaason Roy Morgan have just released their poll done through September so in the context of an election campaign it is a bit out of date but may be of interest on the eve of election day (note that about 1.7 million people have already voted).

  • Labour 47.5% (August 48%)
  • National 28.5% (August 28.5%)
  • Greens 9.5% (August 11.5%)
  • ACT 7% (August 6%)
  • NZ First 2.5% (August 2.5%)
  • TOP 1.5% (August 1%)
  • Maori Party 0.5% (August 0.5%)
  • Other 3% (August 2%)

Those results aren’t a lot different to other recent polls, although they have National a bit lower and Greens a bit higher.

Trends seem quite steady (also like other polls):

Government confidence is also quite stable.

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a NZ-wide cross-section of 911 electors during September. Of all electors surveyed 6% (up 0.5%) didn’t name a party. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?

http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8543-nz-national-voting-intention-september-2020-202010142349

Small movements in another Colmar Brunton poll

We are finally getting a few polls leading into the election, with 1 News/Colmar Brunton releasing another poll, this one with polling done following last week’s leaders debate. This may have slightly lifted National support.

And Labour have slipped enough to raise doubts they may be able to govern alone, especially with a bit more of a Green rise.

  • Labour 47% (down 1)
  • National 33% (up 2)
  • ACT 8% (up 1)
  • Greens 7% (up 1)
  • NZ First 1% (down 1)
  • New Conservatives 1% (down 1)
  • TOP 1%
  • Maori Party 1%
  • Advance NZ 1%

Refuse to answer – 3%
Undecided – 8%

Polling was done from Wednesday 23 to Sunday 27 September.

These are well within margin of error shifts.

Greens are looking healthier but will need to keep fighting for every vote they can get. They sometimes do better in polls than elections.

Winston Peters won’t quite have to rename his party NZ Last, but this loos increasingly like his last stint in Parliament.

The other small parties look like they are getting little to no traction.

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 54% (no change)
  • Judith Collins 23% (up 5)
  • David Seymour 2% (no change)
  • Winston Peters 1% (no change)

That’s a semi significant rise for Collins but she is still a long way off the pace.

1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll: Labour and Greens in driving seat, but ACT still strong

Roy Morgan poll – September 2017

The latest Roy Morgan poll favours Labour+Greens, National are stranded at 40%.

  • National 40% (down from 42.5)
  • Labour 39.5% (up from 32.5)
  • Greens 9% (no change)
  • NZ First 6% (down from 11.5)
  • Maori Party 2.0% (up from 1.5)
  • ACT Party 0.5% (no change)
  • Conservatives 0.5% (up from 0)
  • Other 2.5% (no change)

TOP will be included in ‘other’.

Different again with National and Labour virtual level pegging relatively low. Greens higher than other polls.

The only thing consistent is NZ First down at 6%.

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a NZ wide cross-section of 866 electors during August 28 – September 10, 2017. Of all electors surveyed 5% (down 1.5%) didn’t name a party.

So this is a longer polling period and is more dated (partially at least) than both the recent Colmar Brunton and Reid Research polls.

http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/7339-roy-morgan-new-zealand-voting-intention-september-10-2017-201709151750

 

1 News/Colmar Brunton poll

The latest 1 News/Colmar Brunton poll:

  • Labour 44% (last week 43%, previous 43%)
  • National 40% (last week 39%, previous 41%)
  • Greens 7% (last week 5%, previous 5%)
  • NZ First 6%  (last week 9%, previous 8%)
  • TOP 2.0% rounded (last week 1.9%, previous 0.9%)
  • Maori Party 1.1% rounded (last week 2.0%, previous 0.5%)
  • ACT 0.6% (last week 0.1%, previous 0.3%)

The political pendulum has swung again – but this is fairly consistent with last week’s poll.

Greens will be happy to by recovering, but NZ First are trending down.

Labour + Greens would make a majority together, alternately Labour + NZ First. That puts Labour in a strong position.

Polling 9-13 September.
Last week’s polling period was 2-6 September.
The previous polling period was 26-30 August.

However there is talk that one or possibly two other polls have National slightly ahead. Labour’s tax u-turn today suggests they have concerns about their own polling.

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 34% (down from 35%)
  • Bill English 32 (up from 31%)
  • Winston Peters 5% (no change)

The full report from last week’s poll (they delay posting this by a couple of days).

Undecideds tonight were 14% – up 4pts.

Still a lot of volatility, so the the election is still up for grabs.

Labour jump, National slump in Roy Morgan

The September Roy Morgan poll has the main parties bouncing around.

  • National 41.5% (down from 46.0)
  • Labour 33.5% (up from 25.5)
  • Greens 12.0% (down from 14.5)
  • NZ First 8.5% (down from 9.5)
  • Maori Party 2.0% (up from 1.5)
  • ACT Party 1.0% (no change)
  • Conservative Party 0.5% (down from 1.0)
  • Mana 0% (down from 0.5)
  • United Future 0% (no change)
  • Other 1.0% (up from 0.5)

Who knows why National has dropped from 53% in July to 46% in August to 41.5% in September.

Or why Labour laboured on 25.5 for both Julu and August and then jumped 8% to 35.5 this month, when Andrew Little was hardly visible.

It would be wise not to get hopes up or down to much over this result.

roymorgan2016september

Click to access 6971-nz-national-voting-intention-september-2016.pdf

 

 

Roy Morgan poll bounces, National down, Labour & Greens up

The fluctuations of Roy Morgan polls continues with National dropping back down, this time to 44.5%, while Labour bounce back to 31%. Greens have also bounced up, to 15%

  • National 44.5% (down 6)
  • Labour 31% (up 4)
  • Greens 15% (up 4)
  • NZ First 5.5% (down 2.5)
  • Maori Party 1.5% (unchanged)
  • Act NZ 0.5% (unchanged)
  • United Future 0.5% (up 0.5)
  • Conservative Party of NZ is 1% (up 1%)
  • Internet-Mana Party alliance 0.5% (unchanged)
  • Independent/ Others 0% (down 1%)

Polling period August 31 to September 13, 2015.

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 876 electors in September 2015. Of all electors surveyed 8% (up 2.5%) didn’t name a party.

Confidence rating:

The latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has increased to 128.5pts (up 8.5pts) in September. An increasing majority of NZ electors 58% (up 4%) say NZ is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 29.5% (down 4.5%) that say NZ is ‘heading in the wrong direction’. NZ Government Confidence is far higher than in Australia – Australian Government Confidence is at only 90pts.

RoyMorgan2015September

One News/Colmar Brunton poll

The latest One News/Colmar Brunton poll:

  • National 47% (no change)
  • Labour 32% (no change)
  • Greens 12% (down 1)
  • NZ First 7% (no change)
  • Maori Party 1% (up 1)

Negligible change there.

ColmarBruntonAug-Sep2015

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • John Key 40% (no change)
  • Andrew Little 10% (up 2)
  • Winston Peters 6% (down 1)

Polling period: 29 August – 2 September

  • Change the flag to a new design: 28% (up 2)
  • Keep the current flag: 66% (up 2)
  • Don’t know 6% (down 3)

Link: http://www.colmarbrunton.co.nz/index.php/polls-and-surveys/political-polls/one-news-colmar-brunton-poll

Report: http://www.colmarbrunton.co.nz/images/150907_1_ONE_News_Colmar_Brunton_Poll_report_29_Aug-2_Sep_2015.pdf