If Shane Jones stands in Whangarei

A senior National MP has told that Shane Jones will beat its MP Shane Reti in Whangarei (if Jones stands).

I can’t find any other details on this.

Jones joining NZ First has been talked about since before he left Labour. If he stood he would may have a good chance of winning Whangarei. Or not.

If he joins NZ First. If he stands in Whangarei.

2014 result in Whangerei:

  • Shane Reti (National) 20,111
  • Kelly Ellis (Labour) 6,942
  • Paul Doherty (Greens) 3,163
  • Pita Paraone (NZ First) 2,944
  • Others about 2,500

National would have to bleed from their jugular to lose from those sort of numbers.

Shane Jones and NZ First

It’s long been rumoured that Shane Jones was destined to join Winston Peters at NZ First and take over as leader (I’m not sure what Ron Mark thinks of that).

The rumours are currently swirling again according to One News.

Rumours swirl about comeback for former MP Shane Jones

Former Labour MP Shane Jones is reported to be planning to jump ship to New Zealand First as the party opens the fourth of what will be five electorate offices in the expansive electorate.

Winston Peters stormed to victory in a by-election in the Northland electorate last March after the seat was vacated following the resignation of National’s Mike Sabin.

Mr Peters is confident he can hold the seat at next year’s general election and now local rumours say current Pacific Fisheries ambassador Shane Jones will stand with him for the party in the neighbouring Whangarei electorate.

Whangarei is currently held by National’s Shane Reti.

If rumours are swirling I wouldn’t rule out Peters as being the source of them.

If National aren’t careful they could lose their last hold in Northland.

Labour could also be out manoeuvred again by Peters and may also be shut out of Northland.

Labour leader candidates on TPPA

It’s interesting to look back to Labour’s leadership contest in 2013 and what the candidates views were on the Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement.

Question : What are your views on the Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement? Will you make the TPPA process transparent?

Of course no candidate will disagree with making the process more transparent. Their responses.

Note that these responses were targeting party members and unions in trying to get selected.

Grant Robertson

The TPPA is more than a normal trade agreement and needs to be treated as such, with caution.

I am a supporter of trade agreements that gain our exporters access to markets that will mean they can create jobs here in New Zealand. But we have to ensure that our rights to make laws, regulate and protect our people and environment is upheld.

In the case of the TPPA we must set clear bottom lines. No change to the PHARMAC model, protection of IP and copyright law, and ensuring our sovereign right to regulate and make policy is supported.

We do need more transparency in the way we deal with trade. I would set up an independent trade advisory group with representation from across the community to ensure there is public participation and understanding of our approach to trade agreements. We must be at the table for these sorts of negotiations, but it is vital that it is a Labour Government at the table.

David Cunliffe

I am concerned about the TPPA. We cannot trade-away our ability to set government regulation. I am worried that John Key and his Government will continue to keep us all in the dark about the text and its implications and I fear they will then present us with the final text some time near the end of this year and insist that we accept it otherwise we will harm our trading relationships.

This will leave us with little or no opportunity to consult with our communities about its potential implications.

We must protect Pharmac, ensure intellectual property provisions are suitable for New Zealand business, and we must not accept limits on our sovereign right to regulate. Any agreement must be in New Zealand’s best interest.

Shane Jones

A very challenging issue. It is vitally important we retain the capacity for our Parliament to regulate for public good.

It is essential that this deal does not hobble our technical industries through punitive patents. Ultimately however I do not want to see our Trade partners in a club without us.

NZ First is strongly against the TPPA. How would Jones fit with that?

Northland winners – Peters, Dunne, Maori Party

Winston Peters is obviously a big winner in the Northland by-election. He is a long time very savvy political opportunist and this election couldn’t have been designed better for him.

His informants and instincts were spot on, and he hammered National, something he has been trying to do since he got back into Parliament in 2011.

And this hammering was done democratically, albeit with a lot of media assistance.

Whether Peters hold Northland in 2017 doesn’t matter. If he didn’t stand again he would go out on a high. If he stands and loses in 2017 then he loses little – he may or may not stay in Parliament via NZ First’s party vote but it’s getting time he thought about retirement anyway.

So this is win win win for Winston.

Ironically one of the biggest beneficiaries of this Winston win is Peter Dunne, someone Peters tried to destroy last term.

Dunne now holds a critical vote for National and can be far more influential for the rest of this term – more influential than he has up until now and arguably more influential than Peters in Parliament.

The Maori Party also now hold a balance of power vote so their importance increases for the National led Government.

It could also be a win now and a potential future bigger win for Shane Jones, who may take over from Peters in Northland. That would make it hard for National to win the previously safe electorate back for some time.

The mood was jubilant at the NZ First campaign night headquarters, the Duke of Marlborough Hotel in Russell. Among those celebrating were former Labour MPs Dover Samuels and Shane Jones.

– Northern Advocate: Winston’s ‘Force for the North’ steamrolls National

UMR poll on Jones not Labour

Yesterday  Whale Oil and today Kiwiblog have had posts claiming a poll asking a question on Shane Jones was done by Labour, speculating it was with an aim of attacking  Jones.

Whale Oil: Labour getting ready to shaft Shane Jones?

Kiwiblog:  Are Labour planning smear campaign on Shane Jones?

The poll question:

Which of the following is closer to your own view even if not quite right?

o Shane Jones delivered amusing one liners but his political career was accident prone and did not amount to much. The most attention he got was for using his parliamentary credit card to pay for pornographic movies.
o Shane Jones was one of the few politicians who tells it like it is and with his attacks on Countdown has been the most effective Labour politician this year. He will be a huge loss to Labour especially amongst Maori and blue collar voters.

Russell Brown says that it definitely wasn’t Labour who commissioned the poll.

The “UMR polling commissioned by Labour” being touted by Whaleoil is nothing of the kind. Not commissioned, received or paid for by Labour.

Not that I’d be hanging out for a correction. Just saying he’s firmly holding the wrong end of the stick.

And no, I didn’t get that information from Labour either. I’m surprised they haven’t made it clear though.

I asked him if he knew who.

No, but definitely not Labour. I would naturally *like* to know :-)

Not the first time whoever-it-is has been mistaken for internal labour polling, I gather.

More tweets on this as David Farrar checks it out:

What is your source? Will update if it is someone on the record.

Considering the same poll was testing potential policies for Labour, I’d be sceptical short of an on the reecord denial.

And Russell responded:

Or you could offer some evidence that it is what you say it is. It usually works that way.

Fair call. Then @publicaddress

But no, sorry, it’s a confidential source, but one I’m very confident is correct.

@dpfdpf

I think one can use common sense. Who would want to poll on Shane Jones except media and Labour?

Considering the same poll was testing potential policies for Labour, I’d be sceptical short of an on the reecord denial.

All it takes is for Labour to say on the record “Not us”.

Well whoever it is, is presumably the same person or party polling on a $3 billion a year carbon tax.

So who would have the inclination and the money to do apparently multiple polls that look like they are Labour orientated?

I wonder if NZ First commission polls. The Conservative and Internet parties are both known to commission polling.

Soon returning MP Kelvin Davis launches

Kelvin Davis will soon replace Shane Jones in Parliament as next on the Labour list. He has posted this comment in Facebook.

Well today is my first full day of being unemployed. I had to resign yesterday to avoid compromising my former employer (MoE). Public servants aren’t allowed to make comments to the media and the 24 hours after Paddy Gower dropped his Shane Jones bombshell I would have broken that rule, I dunno, maybe 30-40 times.

Anyway I sat down this morning to address all the Facebook, twitter and email messages and well-wishers only to find my computer has well and truly crapped out.

Responding to them all on a smartphone is proving nigh on impossible.

So sorry if i don’t get back to people in a timely way.

So far people have been gracious regarding my pending return to parliament, but I expect the threats and nutters to start up again the closer we get to the Election. Oh well, such is the lot of a politician.

I just want to reinforce my four political priorities before RSI sets into my thumb.

People will no doubt criticise them and say there are other, better, more important things I should focus on, but I guess in the first instance I’ve got to be true to myself and focus on what I’m passionate about.

Priority 1: no surprises, improving Maori educational achievement, and more importantly, improving Maori achievements through education. I’ll argue to my dying breath that education is the road to Maori success.

Priority 2: Regional Development for Te Tai Tokerau. We’ve got plans and strategies coming out our ears in TTT, but unless a Govt stumps up with some serious dough to implement these plans we’re wasting our time. Even a quarter of 1 percent of the money going into the Christchurch rebuild would go a long way to rebuilding the Tai Tokerau economy. Te Tai Tokerau has endured it’s own tragedy, but it happened over 40 years not 40 seconds. The effects on our people have been equally devastating in the long run.

Priority 3: Te Reo Maori, it’s in a sad state and one of the reasons is that it has been rendered down in most communities to a ceremonial language that had little relevance to most peoples everyday lives. We need to make Te Reo a transactional language so that if i wish I can walk into any business, bank, supermarket, service station or pub and conduct my business in Te Reo if I choose. It is a right English speakers enjoy without having to think about it. Those who wish to conduct daily transactions in Te Reo do not enjoy this right. There are a number of simple and relatively inexpensive practical activities that can happen to get people speaking Te Reo in the community. A lot of dosh is being spent on initiatives that have questionable impacts on improving Te Reo. They need to be reprioritised.

Priority 4: Stopping sexual, physical and emotional abuse of women and children, and yes to men as well.

I was outraged with the Roastbusters scandal and the well publicized sexual abuse/ pedophile cases in Kaitaia over the last few years.

I sat back and waited for a male MP especially any male MAORI MP to make a stand and say something along the lines of “What the bloody hell is going on that men can treat women and children like this?” I was waiting for a male MP to take a stand and tell all of us men that this abuse is (predominantly) a male problem, and that we need to sort our shit out ourselves. We need to have serious conversations with our sons, grandsons and nephews about how a real man treats a woman. But i bet this is just too hard for most males.

I said in my maiden speech that it’s one thing to be born a male, but another thing entirely to become a man. We need to MAN up any have the balls to have those hard conversations with our boys.

Instead the only noise coming from male MPs was the sound of crickets chirping.

So I determined if no other male MP was prepared to stand up and start lecturing men on how we need to treat and love our women and children, and if I was ever in the position again to pick up that mantle, I will.

Some months ago I approached some people who work in this field and told them if i ever get back into parliament, tell me what I need to do to support them. I’ll give them a call soon.

So men, I don’t give a rats arse if I’m accused of not being a REAL bloke, I’ll still be a sports and rugby fanatic, get on the piss, keep up my fishing, shooting and getting lost up in the bush – but i love my wife, daughters, mother, sister, nieces,cousins, friends and colleagues too much to ignore sexual, physical and emotional abuse any longer.

 

So that’s me. No doubt I’ll make plenty of stuff ups along the way but what the hell. I’m determined to enjoy my second chance at this and loosen up a bit.

More than one Maori reporter had told me “You’re bloody hilarious on Twitter, but when we interview you you’re as dry as a brick. We need to see more of the real you.”

I’ll try to remember that advice, but in my own defence improving outcomes for Maori, growing the Tai Tokerau economy, breathing life in to Te Reo and stopping sexual, emotional and physical abuse is fairly serious work.

I better get on with it I guess.

Jones – Labour needs to pull finger

Labour list MP Shane Jones has acknowledged that Labour as a team needs to pull finger “or face a bleak future”.

Jones has just been interviewed on The Nation. He was asked what he thought of David Cunliffe’s performance.

While he understandably sidestepped that question he spoke with far more candour than most MPs would on the current state of Labour support.

He said it wasn’t just a problem with Cunliffe, he laid the responsibility on the whole Labour caucus, and all of them needed to do far better.

He acknowledged that 29% in a poll was not good, and that all the Labour MPs needed to work hard to lift their popularity. He believed that they would rise in the polls as we get closer to the election.

Jones said:

Unless we pull finger we’re looking at a bleak future.

He needs some of his colleagues to acknowledge the reality of their paltry polling. Blaming opponents, blaming bad polling and blaming media unfairness is hiding from the stark truth.

Labour are down and they have to accept and address their faults and problems, they need to take responsibility.

The need to stop pointing finger and as Jones says, pull finger.

Jones rubbishes NZ First speculation

Shane  Jones was interviewed on Radio New Zealand’s Morning Report and he has fairly comprehensively denied any attempt by him or by Winston Peters to get him to jump waka to NZ First (see Shane Jones and NZ First speculation).

 

Jones referred to Matthew Hooton’s speculation in an NBR article as, amongst other things, mischievous and scurrilous.

And Stuff reports I’m not leaving Labour – Jones

Labour MP Shane Jones denies he is planning an exit from Labour, but accepts his chance to be leader had “come and gone”.

When asked if he would be in the Labour Party at the next election, Jones said “absolutely”.

A curious comment from Jones about his chance to be leader having “come and gone”.

Does that mean if Labour miss out on forming the next government and David Cunliffe is dumped as leader Jones wouldn’t have another crack at the top job?

It’s possible that after the experience of last year’s leadership contest Jones realises he would never have wide enough caucus or party support, and he is unlikely to be backed by the union affiliates.

Shane Jones and NZ First speculation

It has been suggested that Shane Jones may be considering jumping from Labour and joining NZ First, as a successor to Winston Peters. That would enhance NZ First’s chances of making 5% in this year’s election. But is it anything other than speculation?

I’ve seen the possibility of Jones moving to NZ First discussed for months – and also to National. In many ways he has seemed an odd man out in Labour.

A blog post at The Conservative last week suggested Shane Jones belongs in NZ First.

Jones has been saying some good stuff lately and in a language that resonates with Joe-Blogg Kiwis. So much so, I question what he is doing in the Labour Party, and if Labour don’t watch out they may very well lose him to NZ First.

Whale Oil in Is Shane Jones rehearsing for leader?

Could he be auditioning for leader…and after today’s headlines is it for labour or for NZ First?

A comment by ‘gazzmaniac’ on Kiwiblog:

Jones needs to split from Labour and start his own party. Or join and lead NZ First.

‘MARC” at The Daily Blog:

Shane Jones should perhaps join NZ First or Winston First, and he would possibly be Winston’s most “suitable” successor.

Matthew Hooton has sparked the current speculation @TheNBR – Shane Jones plots exit from Labour. This is paywalled but Newstalk ZB report on it in Shane Jones may defect to New Zealand First.

Political pundit Matthew Hooton has floated the scenario in a column today in the National Business Review.

He says the maverick MP is becoming ever more indiscreet and he sees his recent behaviour as a pretext to either leave Labour or be expelled.

Hooton says Labour’s rainbow division, unions and women’s council all loathe him and he despises the Greens.

And he sees himself and Winston Peters as “two Maori boys from the North” who could hold the balance of power between National and a Labour-Green coalition.

Hooton says the plan would be for Peters, who will be 72 at the 2017 election, to hand over the leadership of the party to Jones, who would be 59.

Without any indication from Jones or Peters whether there’s any substance to this or not this can be presumed to be Hooton speculating and possibly mischief making.

UPDATE: Jones has just been interviewed on Radio New Zealand’s Morning Report and he has fairly comprehensively denied any attempt by him or by Winston Peters to get him to jump waka to NZ First. He referred to Hooton’s speculation as, amongst other things, mischievous and scurrilous.

What if Grant Robertson…

What if Grant Robertson put as much time and research and effort into rebuilding the Labour Party as he seems to be putting in to trying to destroy Judith Collins’ political career?

What if Shane Jones was an outspoken advocate for a constructive and co-operative approach within his caucus and between Labour and Greens?

What if Labour’s social media campaign promoted positive things Labour would do and the strengths of Labour MPs and candidates?

What if Labour’s poll results improved rather than deteriorated?

Some MPs, parties, political activists and journalists see politics as a dirty murky no holds barred battle of attrition, where taking down an opponent is a primary goal and taking down the Government is the ultimate aim of the opposition.

Voters tend to be turned off by negative attack politics.

Non-voters are turned turned off altogether.

David Cunliffe in Labour Pains, an interview with Gordon Campbell:

Now, we got 660,000 votes last time around, roughly speaking. We are aiming for a million votes this time around. We’ve closed some of that gap. We have a very good idea where we are going to find the balance.

Labour have indicated that they want to get the votes of some of the 800,000 who didn’t vote in 2011.

What if Grant Robertson and Shane Jones and David Cunliffe and Matt McCarten learned that in politics, negatives repel?

Hoping you will emerge victorious out of an almighty shit fight seems at odds with encouraging and persuading disillusioned people to vote.

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