Now Biden versus Sanders

Joe Biden did unexpectedly well in Super Tuesday, in part due to competing moderate candidates Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar pulling out last week and endorsing Biden.

So Super Tuesday was largely Biden versus Bernie Sanders, with Michael Bloomberg trying to get a foothold. But Bloomberg didn’t fire and has now pulled out, also endorsing Biden.

The Hill: Bloomberg drops out after terrible Super Tuesday, endorses Biden

Elizabeth Warren is still in, but lagging badly ‘assessing the path forward’.

So now it is down to a head to head between Biden and Sanders.

Image result for biden sanders

Biden (77), Sanders (78)

All I’ll say is I’m glad I don’t have to choose between the two, nor between either and Donald Trump, and not because they are all in their seventies.

Clinton and Trump in box seats

Super Tuesday has put Hillary Clinton in particular well in front in the Democrat race with Sanders needing a fairly significant turnaround to realistically stay in reckoning.

The Republican side of things is more muddled, but it looks like it’s Donald Trump’s to lose, and he seems to have no intention of doing that.

Trump is dominating but still hasn’t established a decisive lead. And it’s not certain he can  take a winning lead into the deciding convention and the GOP could still try and roll him then.

Marco Rubio is struggling to make a competitive impression. He looks like winning his first state but overall his results have been and remain disappointing for anyone supporting him.

Ted Cruz won another two states and came second in most of the others and on that basis must be seen as the main competitor to Trump.

A very good summary of what the results mean for all the contenders – Winners and losers from Super Tuesday

On Trump:

But wins in eight or nine out of 11 voting states, which is what looks like Trump’s haul will be after Super Tuesday, is pretty good. The two most probable paths for the race at this point are

1) A Trump delegate win or

2) A near-Trump win with the possibility of an open convention where the party establishment tries to take it from him. I like Trump’s odds.

On Clinton:

Clinton has a death grip on the Democratic nomination. The only question is how and when she and her team negotiate a peace with Sanders. And she knows it. Her victory speech Tuesday night in Florida was aimed directly at Trump — talking about why America is and always has been great and why we need  to break down, not build up, walls. Expect lots more of that.

Super Tuesday in the US

It’s still yesterday in the US, and one of the most important days in the presidential primaries.

In the United States, Super Tuesday, in general, refers informally to one or more Tuesdays early in a United States presidential primary season when the greatest number of states hold primary elections.  In 2016, Super Tuesday is on March 1.

More delegates to United States presidential nominating conventions can be won on Super Tuesday than on any other single day of the primary calendar. Candidates seeking the presidency traditionally must do well on this day to secure their party’s nomination.

Since Super Tuesday primaries are typically held in a large number of states from geographically and socially diverse regions of the country, Super Tuesday typically represents a presidential candidate’s first test of national electability. Convincing wins in Super Tuesday primaries have usually propelled candidates to their party’s nomination.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Tuesday

New Zealand Time the results will come in this afternoon and this evening.

According to FiveThirtyEight predictions Clinton is likely to strengthen her position substantially over Bernie Sanders.

Super Guide to Super Tuesday – Democrats

Polling average:

  • Clinton 69.5%
  • Sanders 24.5%

Donald Trump is leading in 10 of eleven states so could also get a strong grip on the Republican primary.

Super Guide to Super Tuesday – Republicans

Polling Average:

  • Trump 39.4%
  • Rubio 19.6%
  • Cruz 15.1%
  • Carson 9.9%
  • Kasich 5.5%

The real crunch will be when it’s down to Trump versus the survivor of the rest.

Cruz looks too fundie right to appeal to a lot of people.

Rubio has resorted to cringe campaigning to try and out-trump Trump, which could  backfire on him.

Both Cruz and Rubio are reported to have raised over $300 million for their campaigns. That’s nuts. Just imagine how many flags you could change with that sort of money.