All posts tagged Te Tai Tokerau

Advance NZ failing to advance

Advance NZ, the umbrella party set up by independent MP Jami-Lee Ross to try to benefit from social media popularity of Billy Te Kahika, looks like it has fizzled well short of the 5% threshold, and Te Kahika looks to be a long way from challenging in the Te Tai Tokerau electorate.

The party has only featured in three party poll results – 0.8, 0.6 and 1 (rounded). If they won an electorate at those levels they would get no more seats off the list, but there chances of winning an electorate look very slim.

Māori News: A third of the North undecided – Te Tai Tokerau poll results

Following the pattern of the other Māori electorate polls so far, the incumbent is leading as the preferred candidate for Te Tai Tokerau electorate.

Curia Market Research polled 500 people…

  • Kelvin Davis (Labour) 36%
  • Mariameno KapaKingi (Māori Party) 18%
  • Undecided 32%
  • Other 7%
  • Billy Te Kahika 1%

As is common Advance NZ are banking on all undecideds voting for them, but this rarely happens. The voter turnout in 2017 was 69.4%, so about 30% didn’t decide then.

Ross chose to not stand in Botany where he is the current MP (he was elected as a National candidate), so Te Tai Tokerau and the threshold are the only chances for Advance NZ, but they look a long way from either.

Te Kahika has excited a few thousand enthusiastic supporters but it takes at least 130,000 to make the 5% threshold and they look nowhere near that level of support.

1 Comment
by Pete George on 9th October 2020  •  Permalink
Posted in Election, Politics, Poll
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Posted by Pete George on 9th October 2020

https://yournz.org/2020/10/09/advance-nz-failing-to-advance/

Jami-Lee Ross – valedictory interview

Jami-Lee Ross gave what may have been effectively a valedictory interview with RNZ yesterday. He has effectively conceded his proposed Advance NZ party is struggling by joining with a conspiracy based party .

He very slim chances of being re-elected must now be even more unlikely.

Ross was selected as a candidate for the safe National electorate of Botany in 2011 and gradually rose through the ranks the become senior Whip in 2017, and was re-elected then with a majority of 12,839 votes.

But a year later, in October 2018 his political career crashed and burned. Ross turned on National and became an independent MP. Allegations were made by MP Sarah Dowie and by electorate staff that Ross had bullied them.

Last year the serious Fraud office announced that Ross was one of four people being investigated for donation fraud, and he was charged in January this year (the trial won’t be until next year).

There’s a summary here.

His problems have continued as an independent MP.

February 2020 (Newsroom): New allegations surround MP Jami-Lee Ross and Ross’ ‘toxic’ office problems raised in June

21 July 2020: ‘Go back into a room with a predator? No thank you’

Despite this Ross has been working towards trying to get re-elected – May 2020 (1 News): Jami-Lee Ross announces own political party for 2020 election

Mr Ross announced Advance NZ in a Facebook post last night, saying it’ll focus on the freedom and sovereignty of New Zealanders and creating a new economic plan to get Kiwis through a post Covid-19 world.

Advance NZ wants to see a democratic country that has brave voices in the middle that speak truth to power. People that stand up for freedom, sovereignty and independence.”

26 July (The Spinoff): Jami-Lee Ross, Billy Te Kahika and the rebel alliance of Election 2020

Can the conspiracy theories of social media be coalesced into a party that makes parliament under MMP?

It hardly needs saying that the views of Te Kahika – and evidently shared by the crowd – go against official scientific advice. In fact, it might even be fair to say that they don’t believe official scientific advice precisely because of who the messengers are. They have no trust in the government, international institutions like the World Health Organisation or the United Nations, or billionaire philanthropists like Bill Gates.

There were attacks on Dr Ashley Bloomfield, who had spent time at the WHO. “Anyone who does any length of time at an organisation like that is going to be fully indoctrinated.” There were enthusiastic boos for the “fully groomed globalist” Jacinda Ardern. “Her story speaks like the perfect history of a prime minister who will betray our people.”

It was Agenda 21. It was anti-vaxxing. It was 5G. It was people being forced out of the provinces to live in “technocratic high-rise cities”. It was all on the way, said Te Kahika, and he was the only one who could

…But for the people who turned out, it had been a thrilling day, and they left upbeat. They had come from all parts of the North Island. And over the next weeks, they’ll take that message out far and wide, and in the process probably reach people totally unreachable by other forms of politics and messaging. The results of that could be unlike anything New Zealand has ever seen before.

RNZ: Jami-Lee Ross launches Advance New Zealand party

Former National MP Jami-Lee Ross has merged his Advance New Zealand party with the Public Party, in the hope its leader will win the seat of Te Tai Tokerau.

That looks like Ross is conceding he has no hope of retaining his Botany seat, and probably also indicates he has been unable to get the 500 members required to register a party.

The Botany MP will co-lead the new party with Billy Te Kahika, who will stand in Te Tai Tokerau.

But there must be close to no chance of Te Kahika winning Te Tai Tokerau.

If he wins it, Ross would make it back into Parliament as a list MP under the coat-tail rule, even if he lost Botany.

Ross said Advance New Zealand would suspend the free trade agreement between New Zealand and China within its first three months and would support Hong Kong and Taiwan in seeking independence.

So a politically toxic MP facing SFO charges who has failed to get a credible party going has joined with a party with even less credibility, best known for it’s support of conspiracy theories, including that Covid-19 is a world order plot.

In what may be virtually a farewell interview yesterday Ross kept refusing to distance himself from the Covid conspiracy.

Ross: “I think there are New Zealanders out there who feel we have lost a lot of rights and freedoms to this Covid-19 issue and there’s questions that are being asked.”

Dann: “But do you believe that it is a bioweapon, man-made, being used against people?”

Ross: “Covid-19 is a real virus and it is impacting people around the world. We have in the situation in New Zealand that we no longer have that virus.”

Dann: “Is it a man-made virus that is being used as a bioweapon to undermine our democracy? I just want an answer on that question.”

Ross: “Covid-19 is a virus that has been in New Zealand and we have lost a lot of rights.”

…

Dann: “Sure, but why would you align your party with someone who believes in, frankly, ridiculous conspiracy theories which are an insult to those who are working on the front lines dealing with Covid-19, to the families who have people dying – why would you align yourself with that?”

Ross: “I think its insulting to say that New Zealanders who care about rights and freedoms shouldn’t be listened to or be taken seriously at all. There are people out there who believe that we have lost a lot of rights and freedoms, who believe that our sovereignty over many many years has been eroded.”

Dann: “You’re happy to lend your name – as someone who was the chief whip of National Party – to the Public Party and its policies, be it their scepticism around 5G, 1080, fluoridation, anti-vaxxers – you’re happy to lend your name to that?”

Ross: “When you have been involved in one of those big political parties you see how much of a cult they are and you see how much of a big problem just blindly following what the big political parties are. There’s an opportunity for small parties unite together and challenge the status quo. That’s what this alliance is about… I think there’s going to be some real momentum here.”

Full transcript and audio: Jami-Lee Ross faces Covid-19, China questions after new Advance NZ party alliance

But the chances of joining forces with other small parties doesn’t look great.

From The Spinoff Bulletin:

A quick point about the ‘alliance’ nature of the Advance NZ/NZ Public Party merger: On stage yesterday, Ross reeled off a long string of parties outside parliament, saying they’d still be welcome to join up.

Since then, people in the leadership teams of the Opportunities Party, Outdoors Party, New Conservative and Social Credit (the largest four parties listed by Ross) have all confirmed to me that they’ll be doing nothing of the sort.

Ross and his new party alliance may get a few supporters online but they are likely to need a lot more than that to come anywhere near close to getting into Parliament.

15 Comments
by Pete George on 28th July 2020  •  Permalink
Posted in Election, Politics
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Posted by Pete George on 28th July 2020

https://yournz.org/2020/07/28/jami-lee-ross-valedictory-interview/

Poll: Davis leads Harawira easily

According to a Newshub/Reid Research poll  Hone Harawira isn’t close to winning back his Te Tai Tokerau seat off Kelvin Davis.

  • Kelvin Davis (Labour) 67.4%
  • Hone Harawira (Mana) 30.3%
  • Godfrey Rudolf (Green) 2.3%

Davis got 43.90% in the 2014 election to Harawira’s 40.53, with the Maori Party candidate getting 11.65% and an independent getting 2.05%.

Party vote:

image_19905885-dynimg-full-q75

That looks good for Labour, and also for NZ First, with little change for the Maori Party.

There is a relatively high margin of error of 4.98% meaning a low sample size.

And the polling was carried out over two months from about 12 July to 12 September and a lot has happened in politics over that time.

6 Comments
by Pete George on 19th September 2017  •  Permalink
Posted in Politics, Poll
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Posted by Pete George on 19th September 2017

https://yournz.org/2017/09/19/poll-davis-leads-harawira-easily/

Maori/Mana party deal

The Maori and Mana parties have announced a deal that will remain in place up until the election on 23 September.

Hone Harawira will stand in Te Tai Tokerai again (Labour’s Kelvin Davis one the electorate off Harawira in 2014), and the Maori Party won’t stand a candidate there.

And Mana won’t stand a candidate against the Maori party in any of the other 6 Maori electorates (one held by Te Ururoa Flavell, the rest held by Labour).

Both parties can still campaign for the party vote and criticise each other’s policies but won’t be allowed to attack each other’s candidates.

This looks like a good deal for the Maori Party, with Mana seemingly intent on putting much of their effort into taking Te Tai Tokerau back again and perhaps picking up a list seat or two through party vote.

This seems a fairly realistic and pragmatic approach.

RNZ: Māori and Mana parties sign deal to work together

Annoucing the deal in Whangārei this morning, Māori Party president Tukoroirangi Morgan blamed Māori disunity for gifting the Māori seats to Labour in 2014.

He said it was time to bring all the seats home to kaupapa Māori parties, so they could hold the balance of power in Parliament and ensure a strong voice in government, regardless of which major party ruled.

Mr Morgan said a simple analysis of the Māori seat results from 2014 showed the combined votes for the Mana and Māori Party candidates would have given the parties three electorates.

But the Labour MP for one of those electorates, Te Tai Tokerau’s Kelvin Davis, said the dynamics had changed and people needed to know a vote for Mana was a vote for National.

No, it would be a vote for Mana. While it could help National retain power the aim is to get Mana back into Parliament.

If Labour diss off both the Maori and Mana parties they are reducing their own chances of ousting national from Government.

4 Comments
by Pete George on 20th February 2017  •  Permalink
Posted in Election
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Posted by Pete George on 20th February 2017

https://yournz.org/2017/02/20/maorimana-party-deal/

Harawira confirms he will stand again

Hone Harawira has confirmed he will stand for Te Tai Tokerau again in  next year’s election.

. has confirmed he’s standing in the next election in Taitokerau on The Hui .

Toby Manhire was observant:

First item on list for : review Twitter handle/biog

Harawira almost immediately dropped out of everything political after losing in the 2014 election, and the Mana Party website also disappeared. Housekeeping like updating Twitter handles seems to have been missed.

Harawira himself doesn’t seem to have been active on twitter, but his MP twitter handle has been referred to including by @NZMorningReport and @Waatea5thEstate

UPDATE: RNZ now have an item on this: Harawira sets sights on political return

He told RNZ’s Mihingarangi Forbes on TV3’s The Hui he was re-entering the political fray because Māori lacked a strong voice in Parliament.

Mr Harawira said many Māori MPs got caught up in party politics, and forgot who they were meant to be representing.

“You’ve gotta have somebody in there who’s a fighter,” he said.

“Somebody who won’t be cowed by party politics or by Parliamentary politics, and is gong to stand up and say what needs to be said, whenever it needs to be said.

“Kelvin’s tried, I think Marama’s tried, but they keep getting squeezed back into that party box.”

The problem is that being ‘a fighter’ and not working with parties in Parliament means you are unlikely to get much done other than fighting talk.

To achieve things you have to get a Parliamentary majority. Individual fighters, or even a handful of fighters, are unlikely to succeed with much in a democracy.

Mr Harawira said he was unlikely to work with the Labour Party, which he thought was too centrist.

He said its leader Andrew Little had led the party away from its working-class roots.

“I think he sings from a different song sheet that boy, and it’s not exactly the song sheet that fits the Mana profile.

“He seems to be a nice enough guy, but he keeps bouncing around from trying to sound tough to trying to sound centrist, and I just think the leader of the Labour Party should have made up his mind by now.”

Mr Harawira said his former Mana Movement colleagues, Sue Bradford and John Minto, could be involved in the party, but in less prominent roles than in 2014.

 

72 Comments
by Pete George on 19th June 2016  •  Permalink
Posted in General, Politics
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Posted by Pete George on 19th June 2016

https://yournz.org/2016/06/19/harawira-confirms-he-will-stand-again/

Davis backs talk with sexual violence walk

Kelvin Davis promised to campaign against sexual and domestic violence when he was elected for the Te Tai Tokerau electorate. He’s putting his talk into action.

On Friday Davis and several friends will begin a Massive (Men Against Sexual Violence) 17-day hikoi to raise awareness around sexual violence, starting at the Auckland Harbour Bridge and plans to arrive in Cape Reinga on June 14.

Stuff reports Kelvin Davis walking the talk highlighting sexual and domestic violence.

Davis says it isn’t a new issue and for decades women and children have carried the secret but it was time for everyone – men in particular – to speak out.

Good on him, I agree men should be speaking out more.  And it’s not always easy as it can come up against resistance, as Davis recalls:

He was working only a six-minute drive down the road from Pamapuria School where paedophile school teacher James Parker was deputy principal. Parker was sentenced in 2013 for more than 300 offences.

Five years before Parker’s atrocities were revealed, Davis had held a meeting with a number of community leaders about the increasing amount of sexual and domestic violence in the Northland region.

In just three weeks he had heard of 13 incidents but when he expressed his outrage at the meeting it was met with deathly silence.

His pleas to do something were met with concern about whether the region could cope with “what might come out of the woodwork” if the issue was exposed.

Not wanting to expose what’s been happening ‘in the woodwork’ has protected sexual offenders for far too long.

“Five years later and the James Parker stuff happened and I kicked myself for not backing my instincts. If I’d done something more when I’d first had concerns about it then maybe we could have done something to have stopped him hurting more victims.”

So now Davis is prepared to raise the issue right through his electorate.

So many people spent their time navel gazing about the high youth suicide rate when “in most cases you can guarantee there was sexual violence or domestic violence in the background”, he claimed.

That kind of upbringing ruined a child’s potential, he said.

“Teachers are trying to teach kids when their heads are full of what happened last night when Uncle snuck in the bedroom and teachers are wondering why kids are gazing out the window and totally not interested.”

Domestic violence generally and particularly sexual violence and offending cause many problems in families and throughout society. Damage can last for a lifetime.

This is sleeves rolled up representation so top marks to Kelvin for confronting what has long been a dirty secret.

1 Comment
by Pete George on 27th May 2015  •  Permalink
Posted in Issues
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Posted by Pete George on 27th May 2015

https://yournz.org/2015/05/27/davis-backs-talk-with-sexual-violence-walk/

Standard response to Davis

News and comment about leaked emails from Kelvin Davis’ campaign and his response on Facebook have been all over social media – with one notable except, Labour’s main blog outlet, The Standard. There was no mention of Davis or Te Tai Tokerau at all until a few minutes ago, and what’s been posted isn’t pretty.

Michael Nolan
5 August 2014 at 8:40 am

Okay so I am trying to stay positive, and it has been great to see so many of the MPs and members starting to stick to the positive message. But can someone please punch Kelvin Davis in the throat so he cannot talk until election day? Us members on the doorsteps trying to convince the people we have a positive message are getting pretty fucking sick of self-centered MPs contradicting that.

That doesn’t sound very positive either.

UPDATE: Responses are slowly appearing:

Bearded Git 5.1

5 August 2014 at 9:22 am

Cunliffe said on Morning Report today that Labour head office has “given Davis some guidance”.

Reply
  • phillip ure 5.1.1
    5 August 2014 at 9:28 am

    preferably to go and do serial-laps of ninety mile beach..

    ..between now and sept. 20th..

    Reply
    • nadis 5.1.1.1
      5 August 2014 at 9:36 am

      The Davis situation is a glorious cock up and completely unnecessary. What do you expect Davis to do? Labour gives him an unwinnable place in the list and then expects him to roll over and not compete in the electorate?

      For someone supposedly as brilliant at strategy as McCarten, and a self described genius like Cunliffe, this treatment of Davis is a clusterfck of epic proportions.

      So simple to avoid, yet this stupid, stupid strategic decision could be the reason why the left is unable to cobble together a majority coalition. If nothing else it will continue to rip maori support – esp in Te Tai Tokerau – away from Labour.

 

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by Pete George on 5th August 2014  •  Permalink
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Posted by Pete George on 5th August 2014

https://yournz.org/2014/08/05/standard-response-to-davis/

Davis continues his Te Tai Tokerau fight

Kelvin Davis has not backed down in his fight against Hone Harawira and Te Tai Tokerau, despite his Labour Party apparently trying to hobble him. Someone presumably from within leaked emails about his campaign plans which got valuable media attention – see Davis raises hackles over Te Tai Tokerau.

Davis has made it clear he is determined to confront Kim Dotcom and to continue battling his way on his Facebook timeline:

I was on 3 News tonight because my campaign team had a look at a proposed website designed to take down Kim Dotcom and stop him from buying the seat of Te Tai Tokerau with his $3million dollars.

We explored this concept, debated it, then along with the Labour Party hierarchy decided it wasn’t in line with our Vote Positive messages and ditched it.

It was all about Kim Dotcom.

This is the same Kim Dotcom who donated $50,000 to far-right wing disgraced politician John Banks.

This is the same Kim Dotcom who said the police turning up at his front door was as bad as the suffering Maori have endured for close to two centuries.

This is the same Kim Dotcom had nothing to do with Maori until he found a way to take advantage of some to try to keep himself out of an American jail.

This is the same Kim Dotcom who’s garage is bigger and flasher than 99% of homes in Te Tai Tokerau, and still cries ‘poor me’.

This is the same Kim Dotcom, who if he really cared about the people of Te Tai Tokerau, would have got out with all the Labour volunteers after the floods and storms and distributed food packages to those who needed them instead of staying tucked up in the mansion.

This is the same Kim Dotcom who turned up to hui up north in a limousine while kaumatua and kuia rode in a rattly bus.

This is the same Kim Dotcom whose interference in Te Tai Tokerau politics was described as a disgrace to over 300 people at the Ngati Hine hearings in Pipiwai yesterday.

I make no apologies about looking at a website that asked the public to donate $5, $10 or whatever they wish to koha, to bring down a fake.

I’m just an ordinary Maori living up north trying to stop the biggest con in New Zealand’s political history from being pulled against my whanau, my hapu, my iwi.

I make no apologies if there’s another Maori politician in the north feeling pretty sensitive about all the criticism he’s copping from hapu throughout Te Tai Tokerau because of the con job.

I’m prepared to cop the criticism from him because it’s just the price a person pays when he stands up for his people and his principles.

And:

My campaign account number for anyone wanting to stop Kim Dotcom’s con job:

38-9009-0235341-01

Account name: NZLP TTT Campaign Acc.

Cheers

Kelvin

Presumably the Davis campaign team has systems in place to deal with donations according to the electoral rules.

Comments are very mixed on those posts, ranging from support to condemnation from apparently Labour supporters and it seems especially from Internet Party supporters.

1 Comment
by Pete George on 5th August 2014  •  Permalink
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Posted by Pete George on 5th August 2014

https://yournz.org/2014/08/05/davis-continues-his-te-tai-tokerau-fight/

Davis raises hackles over Te Tai Tokerau

Kelvin Davis continues to try and wage a vigorous campaign in Te Tai Tokerau against Hone Harawira and Kim Dotcom, despite apparent Labour Party attempts to tone him down. 3 News reported last night Labour MP told off for anti-Internet Mana website

Emails leaked to 3 News reveal plans by Kelvin Davis’ campaign team for an online smear campaign against Internet Mana, until the party shut it down.

In Te Tai Tokerau there are a lot of billboards, but they are not for Mr Davis. His campaign team has been pushing for the new website instead – part of an anti-Internet Mana smear campaign.

According to emails leaked to 3 News, Mr Davis’ team doesn’t see Prime Minister John Key and National as the enemy. It says its fight is against Mr Harawira.

Who leaked the emails? They must have come from someone within Labour, either in protest against Davis’ campaign methods – or to attract media attention.

His team’s edgy web campaign was shut down by the Labour Party. It thought it was too negative for its “vote positive” campaign slogan – a cartoon of Kim Dotcom was deemed too offensive.

“It wasn’t really offensive; it was edgy,” says Mr Davis.

Emails show the divisions within Labour about whether to work with Internet Mana or fight them. The hierarchy clearly wants to play nice, but the tension between the two parties goes beyond Te Tai Tokerau – it’s nationwide.

It’s normal to attack an opponent and highlight potential negatives for them in an election. Labour have been doing this against National and John Key despite their ‘Vote Positive’ slogan.

Harawira was given a response:

“I’m gutted by how low they would stoop to do this,” says Mr Harawira. “He’s got to take responsibility and either admit it and resign or dump this campaign.”

“The whole thing is set up for Labour to solicit money from National to come after me,” says Mr Harawira. “That’s ugly.”

It’s ironic he describes it as ‘ugly’ considering his coalition with Kim Dotcom and acceptance of a rich man’s substantial funding, which has raised many eyebrows as an inappropriate liaison.

Te Tai Tokerau could be a pivotal electorate this election as it could be the difference between success and failure for the Mana Party and the making or breaking of Dotcom’s Internet Party.

Davis’ parliamentary future may also rest on the electorate as hi has a precarious list position. Taking a vigorous fight to Harawira and Mana will get a lot of support but there have been questions about Labour preferring to allow Internet Mana to win to assist a Labour coalition.

One thing’s for sure – there will be a lot of attention on the ongoing campaign in Te Tai Tokerau.

1 Comment
by Pete George on 5th August 2014  •  Permalink
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Posted by Pete George on 5th August 2014

https://yournz.org/2014/08/05/davis-raises-hackles-over-te-tai-tokerau/

Davis assures he’s contesting Te Tai Tokerau

After claims and speculation that Labour were not trying to contest Te Tai Tokerau – see Cunliffe lying about electorate deals? – Kelvin Davis has emphatically assured he is still out to win the electorate off Hone Harawira.

1
of course I’m going out to win it, as I’ve told you a dozen times already. No one has approached me to do any shonky deal.

Davis will be keen on winning the electorate as his chances via the Labour list look precarious.

Yesterday 3 News reported  Annette Sykes chasing Waiariki deal:

Internet Mana candidate Annette Sykes says Labour’s done a secret Epsom-style electorate deal with Hone Harawira.

She’s also calling on Labour to do a deal for her – in the Maori seat of Waiariki.

Internet Mana is…Parliament-bound on Mr Harawira’s coattails.

His lieutenant, Ms Sykes, says Labour’s done a deal which will help ensure he wins Te Tai Tokerau.

“I think it’s already happening there,” says Ms Sykes.”It’s been informally signalled.”

That contradicts what Davis has said.

Labour is denying the claim however, saying all seat deals are off.

“We are campaigning hard in all seven Maori seats and that includes Waiariki – I can’t be any plainer than that,” says Labour leader David Cunliffe.

That would include Te Tai Tokerau. Cunliffe has backtracked on other things but he looks like remaining staunch on this.

But Tova O’Brien at 3 News is not convinced.

Labour’s taken the higher moral ground over coat-tailing, despite not ruling out working with Internet Mana – the masters of coat-tailing – after the election.

So if it does a deal in either of those Maori seats – and it’s hard to tell if it will or not – they’ll be informal deals, done on the ground and on the quiet.

The proof will be in how the campaigns in the Maori electorates play out. If Labour have done or do any electorate deals on the quiet it should be obvious in how the campaign unfolds.

With Labour looking an unlikely winner in the election shoring up any electorate they can and winning as many as possible makes some sense. It will help put them in a better position to rebuild next term – something they have so far failed to do.

 

2 Comments
by Pete George on 31st July 2014  •  Permalink
Posted in Politics
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Posted by Pete George on 31st July 2014

https://yournz.org/2014/07/31/davis-assures-hes-contesting-te-tai-tokerau/

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