Poll: Davis leads Harawira easily

According to a Newshub/Reid Research poll  Hone Harawira isn’t close to winning back his Te Tai Tokerau seat off Kelvin Davis.

  • Kelvin Davis (Labour) 67.4%
  • Hone Harawira (Mana) 30.3%
  • Godfrey Rudolf (Green) 2.3%

Davis got 43.90% in the 2014 election to Harawira’s 40.53, with the Maori Party candidate getting 11.65% and an independent getting 2.05%.

Party vote:

image_19905885-dynimg-full-q75

That looks good for Labour, and also for NZ First, with little change for the Maori Party.

There is a relatively high margin of error of 4.98% meaning a low sample size.

And the polling was carried out over two months from about 12 July to 12 September and a lot has happened in politics over that time.

Maori/Mana party deal

The Maori and Mana parties have announced a deal that will remain in place up until the election on 23 September.

Hone Harawira will stand in Te Tai Tokerai again (Labour’s Kelvin Davis one the electorate off Harawira in 2014), and the Maori Party won’t stand a candidate there.

And Mana won’t stand a candidate against the Maori party in any of the other 6 Maori electorates (one held by Te Ururoa Flavell, the rest held by Labour).

Both parties can still campaign for the party vote and criticise each other’s policies but won’t be allowed to attack each other’s candidates.

This looks like a good deal for the Maori Party, with Mana seemingly intent on putting much of their effort into taking Te Tai Tokerau back again and perhaps picking up a list seat or two through party vote.

This seems a fairly realistic and pragmatic approach.

RNZ: Māori and Mana parties sign deal to work together

Annoucing the deal in Whangārei this morning, Māori Party president Tukoroirangi Morgan blamed Māori disunity for gifting the Māori seats to Labour in 2014.

He said it was time to bring all the seats home to kaupapa Māori parties, so they could hold the balance of power in Parliament and ensure a strong voice in government, regardless of which major party ruled.

Mr Morgan said a simple analysis of the Māori seat results from 2014 showed the combined votes for the Mana and Māori Party candidates would have given the parties three electorates.

But the Labour MP for one of those electorates, Te Tai Tokerau’s Kelvin Davis, said the dynamics had changed and people needed to know a vote for Mana was a vote for National.

No, it would be a vote for Mana. While it could help National retain power the aim is to get Mana back into Parliament.

If Labour diss off both the Maori and Mana parties they are reducing their own chances of ousting national from Government.

Harawira confirms he will stand again

Hone Harawira has confirmed he will stand for Te Tai Tokerau again in  next year’s election.

Toby Manhire was observant:

First item on list for : review Twitter handle/biog

Harawira almost immediately dropped out of everything political after losing in the 2014 election, and the Mana Party website also disappeared. Housekeeping like updating Twitter handles seems to have been missed.

Harawira himself doesn’t seem to have been active on twitter, but his MP twitter handle has been referred to including by @NZMorningReport and @Waatea5thEstate

UPDATE: RNZ now have an item on this: Harawira sets sights on political return

He told RNZ’s Mihingarangi Forbes on TV3’s The Hui he was re-entering the political fray because Māori lacked a strong voice in Parliament.

Mr Harawira said many Māori MPs got caught up in party politics, and forgot who they were meant to be representing.

“You’ve gotta have somebody in there who’s a fighter,” he said.

“Somebody who won’t be cowed by party politics or by Parliamentary politics, and is gong to stand up and say what needs to be said, whenever it needs to be said.

“Kelvin’s tried, I think Marama’s tried, but they keep getting squeezed back into that party box.”

The problem is that being ‘a fighter’ and not working with parties in Parliament means you are unlikely to get much done other than fighting talk.

To achieve things you have to get a Parliamentary majority. Individual fighters, or even a handful of fighters, are unlikely to succeed with much in a democracy.

Mr Harawira said he was unlikely to work with the Labour Party, which he thought was too centrist.

He said its leader Andrew Little had led the party away from its working-class roots.

“I think he sings from a different song sheet that boy, and it’s not exactly the song sheet that fits the Mana profile.

“He seems to be a nice enough guy, but he keeps bouncing around from trying to sound tough to trying to sound centrist, and I just think the leader of the Labour Party should have made up his mind by now.”

Mr Harawira said his former Mana Movement colleagues, Sue Bradford and John Minto, could be involved in the party, but in less prominent roles than in 2014.

 

Davis backs talk with sexual violence walk

Kelvin Davis promised to campaign against sexual and domestic violence when he was elected for the Te Tai Tokerau electorate. He’s putting his talk into action.

On Friday Davis and several friends will begin a Massive (Men Against Sexual Violence) 17-day hikoi to raise awareness around sexual violence, starting at the Auckland Harbour Bridge and plans to arrive in Cape Reinga on June 14.

Stuff reports Kelvin Davis walking the talk highlighting sexual and domestic violence.

Davis says it isn’t a new issue and for decades women and children have carried the secret but it was time for everyone – men in particular – to speak out.

Good on him, I agree men should be speaking out more.  And it’s not always easy as it can come up against resistance, as Davis recalls:

He was working only a six-minute drive down the road from Pamapuria School where paedophile school teacher James Parker was deputy principal. Parker was sentenced in 2013 for more than 300 offences.

Five years before Parker’s atrocities were revealed, Davis had held a meeting with a number of community leaders about the increasing amount of sexual and domestic violence in the Northland region.

In just three weeks he had heard of 13 incidents but when he expressed his outrage at the meeting it was met with deathly silence.

His pleas to do something were met with concern about whether the region could cope with “what might come out of the woodwork” if the issue was exposed.

Not wanting to expose what’s been happening ‘in the woodwork’ has protected sexual offenders for far too long.

“Five years later and the James Parker stuff happened and I kicked myself for not backing my instincts. If I’d done something more when I’d first had concerns about it then maybe we could have done something to have stopped him hurting more victims.”

So now Davis is prepared to raise the issue right through his electorate.

So many people spent their time navel gazing about the high youth suicide rate when “in most cases you can guarantee there was sexual violence or domestic violence in the background”, he claimed.

That kind of upbringing ruined a child’s potential, he said.

“Teachers are trying to teach kids when their heads are full of what happened last night when Uncle snuck in the bedroom and teachers are wondering why kids are gazing out the window and totally not interested.”

Domestic violence generally and particularly sexual violence and offending cause many problems in families and throughout society. Damage can last for a lifetime.

This is sleeves rolled up representation so top marks to Kelvin for confronting what has long been a dirty secret.

Standard response to Davis

News and comment about leaked emails from Kelvin Davis’ campaign and his response on Facebook have been all over social media – with one notable except, Labour’s main blog outlet, The Standard. There was no mention of Davis or Te Tai Tokerau at all until a few minutes ago, and what’s been posted isn’t pretty.

Michael Nolan

Okay so I am trying to stay positive, and it has been great to see so many of the MPs and members starting to stick to the positive message. But can someone please punch Kelvin Davis in the throat so he cannot talk until election day? Us members on the doorsteps trying to convince the people we have a positive message are getting pretty fucking sick of self-centered MPs contradicting that.

That doesn’t sound very positive either.

UPDATE: Responses are slowly appearing:

Bearded Git 5.1

Cunliffe said on Morning Report today that Labour head office has “given Davis some guidance”.

  • preferably to go and do serial-laps of ninety mile beach..

    ..between now and sept. 20th..

    • nadis 5.1.1.1

      The Davis situation is a glorious cock up and completely unnecessary. What do you expect Davis to do? Labour gives him an unwinnable place in the list and then expects him to roll over and not compete in the electorate?

      For someone supposedly as brilliant at strategy as McCarten, and a self described genius like Cunliffe, this treatment of Davis is a clusterfck of epic proportions.

      So simple to avoid, yet this stupid, stupid strategic decision could be the reason why the left is unable to cobble together a majority coalition. If nothing else it will continue to rip maori support – esp in Te Tai Tokerau – away from Labour.

 

Davis continues his Te Tai Tokerau fight

Kelvin Davis has not backed down in his fight against Hone Harawira and Te Tai Tokerau, despite his Labour Party apparently trying to hobble him. Someone presumably from within leaked emails about his campaign plans which got valuable media attention – see Davis raises hackles over Te Tai Tokerau.

Davis has made it clear he is determined to confront Kim Dotcom and to continue battling his way on his Facebook timeline:

I was on 3 News tonight because my campaign team had a look at a proposed website designed to take down Kim Dotcom and stop him from buying the seat of Te Tai Tokerau with his $3million dollars.

We explored this concept, debated it, then along with the Labour Party hierarchy decided it wasn’t in line with our Vote Positive messages and ditched it.

It was all about Kim Dotcom.

This is the same Kim Dotcom who donated $50,000 to far-right wing disgraced politician John Banks.

This is the same Kim Dotcom who said the police turning up at his front door was as bad as the suffering Maori have endured for close to two centuries.

This is the same Kim Dotcom had nothing to do with Maori until he found a way to take advantage of some to try to keep himself out of an American jail.

This is the same Kim Dotcom who’s garage is bigger and flasher than 99% of homes in Te Tai Tokerau, and still cries ‘poor me’.

This is the same Kim Dotcom, who if he really cared about the people of Te Tai Tokerau, would have got out with all the Labour volunteers after the floods and storms and distributed food packages to those who needed them instead of staying tucked up in the mansion.

This is the same Kim Dotcom who turned up to hui up north in a limousine while kaumatua and kuia rode in a rattly bus.

This is the same Kim Dotcom whose interference in Te Tai Tokerau politics was described as a disgrace to over 300 people at the Ngati Hine hearings in Pipiwai yesterday.

I make no apologies about looking at a website that asked the public to donate $5, $10 or whatever they wish to koha, to bring down a fake.

I’m just an ordinary Maori living up north trying to stop the biggest con in New Zealand’s political history from being pulled against my whanau, my hapu, my iwi.

I make no apologies if there’s another Maori politician in the north feeling pretty sensitive about all the criticism he’s copping from hapu throughout Te Tai Tokerau because of the con job.

I’m prepared to cop the criticism from him because it’s just the price a person pays when he stands up for his people and his principles.

And:

My campaign account number for anyone wanting to stop Kim Dotcom’s con job:

38-9009-0235341-01

Account name: NZLP TTT Campaign Acc.

Cheers

Kelvin

Presumably the Davis campaign team has systems in place to deal with donations according to the electoral rules.

Comments are very mixed on those posts, ranging from support to condemnation from apparently Labour supporters and it seems especially from Internet Party supporters.

Davis raises hackles over Te Tai Tokerau

Kelvin Davis continues to try and wage a vigorous campaign in Te Tai Tokerau against Hone Harawira and Kim Dotcom, despite apparent Labour Party attempts to tone him down. 3 News reported last night Labour MP told off for anti-Internet Mana website

Emails leaked to 3 News reveal plans by Kelvin Davis’ campaign team for an online smear campaign against Internet Mana, until the party shut it down.

In Te Tai Tokerau there are a lot of billboards, but they are not for Mr Davis. His campaign team has been pushing for the new website instead – part of an anti-Internet Mana smear campaign.

According to emails leaked to 3 News, Mr Davis’ team doesn’t see Prime Minister John Key and National as the enemy. It says its fight is against Mr Harawira.

Who leaked the emails? They must have come from someone within Labour, either in protest against Davis’ campaign methods – or to attract media attention.

His team’s edgy web campaign was shut down by the Labour Party. It thought it was too negative for its “vote positive” campaign slogan – a cartoon of Kim Dotcom was deemed too offensive.

“It wasn’t really offensive; it was edgy,” says Mr Davis.

Emails show the divisions within Labour about whether to work with Internet Mana or fight them. The hierarchy clearly wants to play nice, but the tension between the two parties goes beyond Te Tai Tokerau – it’s nationwide.

It’s normal to attack an opponent and highlight potential negatives for them in an election. Labour have been doing this against National and John Key despite their ‘Vote Positive’ slogan.

Harawira was given a response:

“I’m gutted by how low they would stoop to do this,” says Mr Harawira. “He’s got to take responsibility and either admit it and resign or dump this campaign.”

“The whole thing is set up for Labour to solicit money from National to come after me,” says Mr Harawira. “That’s ugly.”

It’s ironic he describes it as ‘ugly’ considering his coalition with Kim Dotcom and acceptance of a rich man’s substantial funding, which has raised many eyebrows as an inappropriate liaison.

Te Tai Tokerau could be a pivotal electorate this election as it could be the difference between success and failure for the Mana Party and the making or breaking of Dotcom’s Internet Party.

Davis’ parliamentary future may also rest on the electorate as hi has a precarious list position. Taking a vigorous fight to Harawira and Mana will get a lot of support but there have been questions about Labour preferring to allow Internet Mana to win to assist a Labour coalition.

One thing’s for sure – there will be a lot of attention on the ongoing campaign in Te Tai Tokerau.

Davis assures he’s contesting Te Tai Tokerau

After claims and speculation that Labour were not trying to contest Te Tai Tokerau – see Cunliffe lying about electorate deals? – Kelvin Davis has emphatically assured he is still out to win the electorate off Hone Harawira.

of course I’m going out to win it, as I’ve told you a dozen times already. No one has approached me to do any shonky deal.

Davis will be keen on winning the electorate as his chances via the Labour list look precarious.

Yesterday 3 News reported  Annette Sykes chasing Waiariki deal:

Internet Mana candidate Annette Sykes says Labour’s done a secret Epsom-style electorate deal with Hone Harawira.

She’s also calling on Labour to do a deal for her – in the Maori seat of Waiariki.

Internet Mana is…Parliament-bound on Mr Harawira’s coattails.

His lieutenant, Ms Sykes, says Labour’s done a deal which will help ensure he wins Te Tai Tokerau.

“I think it’s already happening there,” says Ms Sykes.”It’s been informally signalled.”

That contradicts what Davis has said.

Labour is denying the claim however, saying all seat deals are off.

“We are campaigning hard in all seven Maori seats and that includes Waiariki – I can’t be any plainer than that,” says Labour leader David Cunliffe.

That would include Te Tai Tokerau. Cunliffe has backtracked on other things but he looks like remaining staunch on this.

But Tova O’Brien at 3 News is not convinced.

Labour’s taken the higher moral ground over coat-tailing, despite not ruling out working with Internet Mana – the masters of coat-tailing – after the election.

So if it does a deal in either of those Maori seats – and it’s hard to tell if it will or not – they’ll be informal deals, done on the ground and on the quiet.

The proof will be in how the campaigns in the Maori electorates play out. If Labour have done or do any electorate deals on the quiet it should be obvious in how the campaign unfolds.

With Labour looking an unlikely winner in the election shoring up any electorate they can and winning as many as possible makes some sense. It will help put them in a better position to rebuild next term – something they have so far failed to do.

 

Cunliffe lying about electorate deals?

While David Cunliffe criticises National for doing electorate deals in Epsom and Ohariu, and insists Labour will not do any electorate deals, there are reports from Te Tai Tokerau that Labour have effectively thrown the electorate, leaving it to Internet Mana..

Is this a case of Labour doing something different to what they claim, and doing what they criticise National for doing? If so this is deceitful.

In NZ Herald Cunliffe denies double standards over deals:

Labour leader David Cunliffe has denied he has double standards for refusing to rule out relying on the Internet Mana party to form a government despite deriding National for its coat tailing deals in Epsom and Ohariu.

Mr Cunliffe has accused National of manipulating voters by using the coat-tailing provisions to try to boost its support partners’ chances through electorate deals in Epsom and Ohariu.

However, he will not rule out calling on the Internet Mana Party if needed to form a Government.

There appears to be double standards and deceit there.

Mr Cunliffe said he had made it clear it was “extremely unlikely” any Internet Mana Party MPs would get ministerial positions, or even lower level associate or undersecretary roles in a Labour-led Government.

But he would not rule out policy concessions in return for their votes, saying that was a matter to discuss after the election. “We will talk to whoever the voters serve up.”

But there are claims that Labour are ‘manipulating voters by using the coat-tailing provisions’ to try to boost Hone Harawira’s chances  in Te Tai Tokerau.

Mr Cunliffe denied it was a double standard.

“Because I’m not trying to tell New Zealanders who to vote for. I’m being absolutely plain that they should vote Labour with two ticks.”

That doesn’t appear to be what’s happening in Te Tai Tokerau, despite Labour’s candidate Kelvin Davis previously saying he would vigorously contest the electorate.

A resident of the Far North commented on Kiwiblog:

A couple of earlier commenters mentioned Davies winning TTT. Forget it. He is invisible, no signage in the North. None. Labour have hung him out to dry again. A vote for labour is a vote for the Harawira crime family and Kim Dotcom.

And a similar story at No Minister:

NEWSFLASH … LABOUR CONCEDES TE TAI TOKERAU TO HONE

So much for the hypocritical beating from Labour about National doing ‘deals’ in Epsom and Ohariru (leaving aside the fact that MMP is all about doing deals).   It is now clear the Cunliffe and Labour, have done exactly that and conceded Te Tai Tokerau to Hone in a deal that should let the Mana/Internet Party come in with three MPs (based on their current pollling).

What’s the evidence for that?     Well, the Vet and Mrs Vet took a trip up to Kaitaia on Saturday for a meeting of the Far North Vietnam veterans.    On the way up we encountered numerous National Party signs; a sad looking half sign promoting Labour’s Northand candidate; two signs from a weird mob called Focus New Zealand ; a heap of signs from Hone, but from Kelvin Davis, the Te Tai Tokerau Labour candidate, zip zero nothing, nothing at all.

And I am told suma suma in the southern part of the electorate.

…now it’s clear that Cunliffe and Labour have pulled the rug from Davis as a serious player…

It may be that Kelvin Davis and Labour are yet to launch a candidate campaign in Te Tai Tokerau. I’m trying to check that out with him.

But at this stage of the campaign it looks like David Cunliffe may not be being truthful about Labour’s electorate intent.

UPDATE: Cunliffe has just spoken on Firstline repeating that Labour would contest electorates “up and down the country” and wouldn’t support coat tailing.

UPDATE 2: Kelvin Davis has responded this morning “That is a pure beat up. Im out to win the seat.” But he hasn’t replied yet when I asked when he was putting hoardings up.

Three MPs for Te Tai Tokerau?

Ex Mana candidate Clinton Dearlove has announced he is standing as an Independent for Te Tai Tokerau.

Dearlove says that if he wins the electorate vote then Kelvin Davis will get in on the Labour list and Hone Harawira, backed by $3 million and the Internet Party, will get in too. That will be three MPs for Te Tai Tokerau.

Clinton Dearlove tonight announced that he shall be standing in the Te Tai Tokerau election as an Independent.

Mr Dearlove shall be running a “Vote Dearlove Get 3” campaign, he goes on to say

“Kelvins high list placing for Labour, and Hones access to over $3 million with his list placing shall see them elected to Parliament.”

and

“If the voters of Te Tai Tokerau vote strategically it is possible to have 3 MP’s for the electorate. We shall only be seeking the electorate not the party vote in this election.”

“We shall be campaigning on building healthy communities, underpinned by 5 key policy areas Health, Education, Housing, Employment, and Regional Development” says Mr Dearlove.

Dearlove explains more in a Facebook video:

Our team has calculated that with Koro Kelvin Davis’ high placing in the Labour Party, that he shall get into Parliament on the list.

With over three million dollars at Papa Hone’s disposal, that he also will be in Parliament on the list.

So we will be running a ‘Vote Dearlove, get three’ campaign.

This would depend on MANA winning a different electorate, perhaps via Annette Sykes, or the Internet-MANA umbrella party getting 5% or more of the party vote.

Where we, Te Tai Tokerau, will have three seats in Parliament, we will have three voices speaking for our whanau, for our hapu, for our te Tai Tokerau.

This is an interesting proposal. I campaigned on something similar in Dunedin North last election (where the electorate could have had three or four MPS) but the media ignored the innovative approach – and so did the voters, most of whom never heard about it.

There are major hurdles to overcome if this were to succeed in Te Tai Tokerau. Both Davis and Harawira would just about have to support the concept and campaign accordingly. I doubt very much MANA and Harawira would take the risk, the success of Internet-MANA may depend on Harawira’s success.

Dearlove could have an adverse effect, and this may be more likely. If he takes enough of Harawira’s votes this would significantly improve the chances of Davis winning the seat, so Dearlove would miss out and also a possible failure for not just Harawira but also Internet-MANA.

Harawira may also lose votes through his alliance with Kim Dotcom.

And this depends on Davis getting into a list position where he will get into Parliament. He was placed too low in 2011 and there’s doubts about where Labour’s cut-off will be this time.

It’s most likely Dearlove won’t get any traction for his proposed three for one campaign but it’s an interesting approach. More electorates should try it.

Mr Dearlove when asked about about the other candidates in this years election stated “I look forward to helping Papa Hone feed the kids, and am quite excited about also helping Koro Kelvin with educating our kids.” Mr Dearlove finished by saying “This election should not be about us the candidates as individuals but as part of a community.”

Dearlove stood for Mana in te Tai Tonga in 2011, at the opposite end of the country to Te Tai Tokerau. Dearlove was fourth:

  • Rino Tirikatene (Labour) – 6,786 (40.62%)
  • Rahu Katene (Maori) – 5,311 (31.79%
  • Dora Roimata Langsbury (Green) – 2,546 (15.24%
  • Dearlove (Mana) – 1,360 (8.14%)
  • Emma-Jane Mihaere Kingi (Legalise Cannabis) – 703 (4.21%)