Election – key electorate results

In general the party vote is all important, but some electorate results can be critical.

Total provisional numbers of seats:

  • National 58 (60 in 2014)
  • Labour 45 (32 in 2014)
  • NZ First 9 (11 in 2014)
  • Greens 7 (14 in 2014)
  • ACT Party 1 (1 in 2014)
  • Maori Party 0 (2 in 2014)
  • United Future 0 (1 in 2014)

It is thought likely that National could lose a seat on the final count, NZ First could also be at risk of that. Greens or Labour could pick up 1 or 2 between them.

This election Te Ururoa Flavell losing means the Maori Party are out of government…

Waiariki provisional result:

  • Tamati Coffey (Labour) 9,847
  • Te Ururoa Flavell (Te Ururoa Flavell) 8,526

…and National may be short of support partners (although the Maori Party could have sided with either them (again) or Labour.

Winston Peters has lost his Northland seat:

  • Matt King (National) 13,686
  • Winston Peters (NZ First) 12,394

Peters won what had been a safe National seat in a by-election in 2015 so this isn’t a shock result, but it is a shock to Winston’s ego and means that NZ First are back to being a klist only party. Alongside a reduction in NZ First’s party vote they don’t have a strong mandate, but due to the way the numbers fell under MMP are in a strong negotiating position if Greens keep refusing to work with National.

Apart from ego losing his electorate may be a good thing for Winston. He won’t have to split his time between an electorate and leading the party in Parliament. And if he decides to retire this term he can do so without causing a by-election.

Other electorate results of interest but having no effect on the overall outcome:

Christchurch Central:

  • Duncan Webb (Labour) 13,838
  • Nicky Wagner (National) 11,573

A loss for a Cabinet Minister but this seat has generally been more Labour in the past. Wagner will still return on the list.

Epsom:

  • David Seymour (ACT) 13,325
  • Paul Goldsmith (National) 8,549
  • David Parker (Labour) 5,048
  • Barry Coates (Greens) 1,878

Seymour saves ACT.

Coates only came into Parliament in 2016 when Kevin Hague resigned, but will be out again now due to the Green party vote slump.

Hutt South:

  • Chris Bishop (National) 17,392
  • Ginny Andersen (Labour) 15,387

Bishop got within about 700 votes of Trevor Mallard last election and earned this win through hard electorate work and favourable boundary changes.

Andersen pushed Peter Dunne hard in Ohariu last election but for some reason moved to Hutt South and lost again.

Ōhāriu:

  • Greg O’Connor (Labour) 14,486
  • Brett Hudson (National) 13,807

Peter Dunne decided not to stand leaving this seat open. Hudson had already asked voters to vote for Dunne so had to switch to asking for votes which will have counted against him, but Green’s late decision to stand Tane Woodley made it harder for O’Connor.

The party vote in Ohariu us interesting

  • National 15,697
  • Labour 11,713
  • Greens 3,203
  • NZ First 1,343
  • United Future 73

The UF candidate got more votes (212) than his party. Dunne used to get far more votes than UF.

Te Tai Tokerau:

  • Kelvin Davis (Labour) 10,448
  • Hone Harawira (MANA) 6,178

No comeback for Hone, this may be the end for him in politics and also for MANA.

Te Tai Tonga:

  • Rino Tirikatene (Labour) 8,435
  • Metiria Turei (Greens) 4,448
  • Mei Reedy-Taare )MAori Party) 3,843

Tirikatene seems to be succeeding more from his name and connections than his performance.

Turei is out of Parliament after her disastrous power play that nearly brought the Green Party down.

Have the Greens given up on Metiria?

Since resigning as co-leader and withdrawing from the Green list Metiria Turei has been out of the political spotlight.

She gets a glimmer of attention from Newshub in Decision 17: One week to go:

Green Party MPs Marama Davidson and Metiria Turei are also in Otara at a rally against poverty.

It will be one of Ms Turei’s first public appearances since her resignation in August, after public scrutiny over her admission of benefit fraud.

“She represented a politician finally talking about the truth about their realities in their everyday lives,” said Ms Davidson.

“There’s no way that I could have this poverty rally without her strength and her bravery represented.”

But in a Green Party Campaign Update Newsletter yesterday Turei was ignored.

Lots of people have been asking about strategic voting. How do we ensure a left government with a great green heart? It’s simple.

If you vote Green and want a Labour-led government then voting Green will not split your vote. Every Green vote adds to every Labour vote.

The number of party votes the Greens get is the deciding factor between Labour forming a coalition with NZ First (let’s not let that happen!) or the Greens.

Party vote Green for a strong, Labour-led government with a compassionate green heart. 💚

You should cast your electorate vote for the candidate you most want to represent your electorate. If that’s Nelson, we hope it’s Matt Lawrey! He’s been doing great work there and we think he is in with a shot to unseat long-standing National MP Nick Smith.

Lawrey is the sole MP who is being promoted for an electorate vote.

Turei’s only chance of getting back into Parliament is to win the Te Tai Tonga electorate, but the Greens aren’t mentioning let alone promoting that.

Has Turei given up on trying? Or have the Greens given up on her?

Tough for Turei in Te Tai Tonga

After resigning as Green co-leader and withdrawing from the party list Metiria Turei’s only chance of staying in Parliament was in winning the Te Tai Tonga electorate. This is the first time as a Green MP she has tried to win an electorate rather than going for party votes.

A Maori Television poll suggests it will be tough for Turei – Te Tai Tonga – Preferred Candidate:

  • Rino Tirikatene (Labour) 57.1%
  • Mei Reedy-Taare (Maori Party) 22.1%
  • Metiria Turei (Greens) 20.7%

Tirikatene is not the best performing of MPs but he has strong family and iwiw ties to the electorate.

Electorate result in 2014:

  • Rino Tirikatene (Labour) 41.77%
  • Ngaire Button (Maori Party) 24.19%
  • Dora Roimata Langsbury (Greens) 15.69%
  • Georgina Beyer (Mana) 9.87%
  • Emma-Jane Mihaere Kingi (Legalise Cannabis) 4.97%

 

Campaigning for electorate and mission Metiria

Metiria Turei stepped down from Green leadership and she has withdrawn from the party list, but she is still standing this election, for the Te Tai Tonga Maori electorate for the first time, and that is her only chance of staying in Parliament.

Turei has done well in the Dunedin North electorate for the last three elections, and has been especially successful at growing the Green vote in Dunedin (although Greens have always done relatively well in Dunedin North):

  • 1999: electorate 4.22%, party 7.43%
  • 2002: electorate 6.87%, party 12.36%,
  • 2005: electorate 7.46%, party 10.82%
  • 2008: Turei 11.09%, party 15.81%
  • 2011: Turei 19.51%, party 23.39%
  • 2014: Turei 17.37%, party 22.94%

Te Tai Tonga is huge, covering all of the South Island, Stewart Island, the Chatham Islands, all the islands in the Southern Ocean, and a large part of the Wellington urban area which includes Wellington City as far as Johnsonville, and Petone, Lower Hutt and Eastbourne from the Hutt Valley.

The incumbent Te Tai Tonga MP is Rino Tirikatene, one of Labour’s lowest ranked and least visible MPs, but with the surge in support for Labour it would seem unlikely he will lose to Turei. The Maori Party is also strongly contesting the seat.

2014 results:

  • Rino Tirikatene 8,885 votes, Labour 36.70%
  • Ngaire Button 4,891 votes, Maori party 11.19%
  • Dora Roimata Langsbury 3,173 votes, Greens 16.41%
  • Georgina Beyer 1,996 votes, Internet Mana 4.93%
  • Emma-Jane Mihaere Kingi 1,005 votes, Legalise Cannabis 1.36%
  • National 14.92%
  • NZ First 12.82%

From Claire Trevett at NZH: The Maori battlegrounds

One of the more intriguing races as a result of the political upheavals in the last three weeks will be the Te Tai Tonga seat, held by Labour’s Rino Tirikatene.

After Turei took herself off the Green Party list and stepped down as co-leader it did not take long for her supporters on social media to start pointing out that if Te Tai Tonga voters believed she had been hard done-by for her admission of welfare fraud as a young solo mother, they should vote for her to get her back in.

Now, Turei says if she won the seat, she would take it and return. “It would be a great honour.”

Asked if she would be actively campaigning for the candidate, Turei says the party vote is the most important. “And it would be a real privilege if voters gave me their electorate vote as well.”

Bargh says an added bonus in campaigning for the seat would be securing the electorate as insurance for the Green Party in case of a low party vote.

But she doubts Turei can get enough to tilt Tirikatene out. Though there is some dissatisfaction with him, he could be saved by the surge in popularity for Labour, she says.

Ngahuia Wade believes the most likely impact of Turei will be to split the Labour-Green vote and get the Maori Party’s Mei Reedy-Taare into Parliament.

This will be an intriguing contest, both to see how well Turei does and to see if Tirikatene hangs on.

ODT: Applause for Turei at candidate forum

Metiria Turei appeared to be as popular as ever at her first public outing since resigning from the Green Party leadership.

She represented the party at a low-key political forum at Knox Church Hall yesterday.

Seems odd that the Green candidate in Dunedin North didn’t represent their party.

The questions canvassed the candidates’ thoughts on housing affordability and availability for low-income earners; how they would create healthy childhoods; and whether they thought benefits and working for families tax credits should be indexed to median wages, as superannuation is.

Ms Turei’s response to the latter drew the loudest cheers and applause of the forum, from many in the audience.

She does well in Dunedin candidate meetings, and the Knox forum tends to be very left leaning.

”I have staked my entire political career on improving the incomes for the most poor in this country.”

A stark staking this election.

On Facebook recently:

Back on the horse! You have all been an amazing support over the last weeks. Thank you.
Now I need your help to run a great campaign in Te Tai Tonga. We have just 5 weeks, whānau. So if you want to help me, I need volunteers and money – either is awesome.

To volunteer, just go to http://nzgreens.nationbuilder.com/volunteer-ttt We need people to make phonecalls, knock on doors and come out to hui. There are events all over the rohe and I’d love to see your faces there!

If you don’t have much time, then consider sending a koha https://www.greens.org.nz/candidate-donation-metiria-turei – every bit helps.
We will end poverty in Aotearoa, build a compassionate welfare system and restore our awa. That’s our mission!

So give your party vote to Greens to get my incredible team back into Parliament and give your electorate vote to the person who best represents you. If that’s me, I would be honoured.

Turei is getting support from outside her electorate campaign:

 

Will this be her last political fling, or will she win a historic Maori electorate for the Greens?

Maori electorates have tended to vote tactical more than others, but nothing out of the ordinary has happened in Te Tai Tonga. Until now?

It would be a loss to Parliament if Turei misses out.

 

How many electorates will Greens contest?

It has been suggested that a nuclear option for the Greens is to not support a Labour-NZ First coalition from the cross benches. But that won’t come up until after the election.

There’s another nuclear option – to go hard out competing with Labour for both votes and for electorates in the campaign.

This must be an option that the greens have considered. At what point in perceived hopelessness for Labour’s chances will they push this button?

If Greens see little chance of getting into power after September’s election without severely compromising their integrity and credibility they may bring into a longer term plan – to become the dominant left wing party, which would have to be at Labour’s expense.

The only chance of them growing into this position iks by winning electorates.

Green Party icon Jeanette Fitzsimons won the Coromandel electorate in 1999, losing it in 2002. Since then Greens haven’t contested electorates, putting all their efforts into getting the party vote, crucial under MMP.

Until this election.

They have already signalled that they are competing for the Nelson electorate – one that they seem to have little chance of winning off Nick Smith. But this may be just a preliminary manoeuvre.

Why just one? It doesn’t seem to make sense. Will the Greens try to win more electorates?

This election Turei has decided not to contest Dunedin North, where she has done very well in the past few elections. This time she is standing in the southern Maori seat of Te Tai Tonga.

The incumbent MP is Labour’s Rino Tirikatene, who is not exactly a top MP, currently ranked 26 out of 31 in Labour’s pecking order. Like all Labour’s other Maori MPs he didn’t go on the party list this year (unlike other Maori candidates he wasn’t on the list last election either).

Turei has also shown that she fancies the Greens going for more Maori votes. This is competing very much with Labour.

Will she go hard out for Te Tai Tonga?

What about James Shaw in Wellington Central? He has done ok there in the last two elections against Labour’s Grant Robertson, but the Greens in  particular have done very well, getting more party vote than Labour in the last three elections.

If Greens could pull off Wellington Central it would be a major blow to Labour.

It would position Greens well to target what must be their ultimate ambition, to become the dominant left wing party. This means competing head to head with Labour.

With a collapse in the Labour vote this election a distinct possibility – it is being openly talked about by media – the Green outlook come coalition negotiating time looks very limited.

Greens seem to have hit a ceiling of support going for party vote only.

Actively contesting electorates could lift their party vote.

The logical way to go to the next level is to start winning electorates. Winning electorates is probably their only way of competing with Labour for being the lead opposition party, and ultimately the party leading Government.

With their negotiating position and coalition options looking very weak this election, this presents both a dilemma and an opportunity for the Greens.

They are at risk of losing third party status to NZ First, and not just on party vote. Winston Peters won the Northland by-election early this term, and NZ First seem to fancy their chances in Whangarei where Shane Jones is contesting.

Will the Greens push the nuclear button and compete hard out against Labour both for party votes and electorates?

There’s no better time than now to go for it.

Shaw avoids electorate question

On The Nation this morning James Shaw was asked whether he had any ambition to win the Wellington Central electorate next election.

Shaw avoided answering this, diverting to the usual Green spiel about the party vote being all important – which it is.

But with Labour struggling so much the Greens must at least be considering going for some electorates.

Wellington Central would have to be on that list.

Metiria Turei’s desire to contest Te Tai Tonga is also an interesting change in focus for her.

Will Greens recommend voters give them the party vote but give Labour the electorate vote in these electorates?

Or will they at least quietly hope to pick up a seat or two beyond the list.

Little denies electorate deals

1 news has reported this morning that the Greens and Labour have agreed on some electorate deals, including giving Metiria Turei a free run at the Te Tai Tonga Maori electorate, and also deals are being done in Nelson (Nick Smith’s seat) and Ohariu (Peter Dunne’s seat).

The Greens have talked to Andrea Vance about this, but Andrew Little seems to have been surprised by the Greens going public on this. He has denied any agreements have been made and he avoided talking about specific electorates.

Good morning, joins us soon with exclusive details of backroom deals between Labour and the Greens ahead of next year’s election

‘In Nelson the Greens feel like they can pick up a lot of votes’ on backroom deals between Labour and Greens.

Green’s won’t stand a candidate in Ohariu, paving the way for a Labour candidate to battle with United Future’s Peter Dunne.

Green’s co-leader Metiria Turei will run in Te Tai Tonga, Labour candidate Rino Tirikatene told by party not to run.

They reported that Turei informed Tirikatene.

But Andrew Little denies any deals have been made.

‘This is news to me, we have no agreement on any seat’ on Labour doing backroom deals with the Greens.

‘We are committed to changing the government and that’s what that (MoU) agreement is about’.

‘We’re thinking about a campaign that means we get to win government and that means looking at the party vote’

Little diverted to his boilerplate campaign phrases. Has he been blind sided by the Greens? Or is he not aware of the deals Labour have been talking about with the Greens.

From the Labour-Green Memorandun of Understanding:

2. Working Together

d) We agree to a “no surprises” policy that means we give each other prior notice and the details of major announcements and speeches. This includes matters where we may disagree.

This means that Little is not being truthful, or the Greens have sprung a surprise announcement.

Andrea Vance is back on Breakfast now to respond to Little’s comments, she has confirmed that the Green Party has told her about these deals.

My guess is that the Greens have become alarmed and frustrated by the lack of traction in the polls for Labour and the Greens and want to try and push things along.

Little has been caught very flat footed.

Are the Greens deciding they have to do what’s best for themselves and stuff Labour?

It certainly doesn’t look like Turei and Little are together on this announcement.

It looks like a power play by Turei.

UPDATE: 1 News now online – Exclusive: The backroom deals that Labour and the Greens are working on ahead of 2017 election

Note that while Little says that no deal has been done the headline says that the deals are being worked on.

Has Turei jumped the gun? If so, why?

Mana manouvres

Ex Mana Party candidate Clinton Dearlove announced he would stand in the Te Tai Tokerau electorate as an Independent, which would put him up against Hone Harawira – see Three MPs for Te Tai Tokerau?

He has now claimed that Mana have asked him to stand for Mana in a different electorate. He says he declined.

Details from his Facebook page.

Dearlove Declines Mana Party Request

Over the weekend Mr Dearlove declined a request to stand as a Mana candidate in the Tamaki Makaurau electorate by current Mana members.

“It had been a privilege to have had an opportunity to have stood for the Mana Party previously”.

“We firmly believe in the concept of MANA for ALL and carry that belief with us into the future. We honestly believe that politics is about people, we encourage the Mana Party to carry on its work to highlight the issues affecting our Whanau and Hapu”.

“There are numerous issues that are important, we believe there a number of different paths to achieve improved results for our Whanau and Hapu here in Te Tai Tokerau. We parted ways but we are travelling to the same destination, the empowerment of our Whanau and Hapu aspirations”.

There is a MANAinternet roadshow due to start this week. Mr Dearlove encourages Whanau and Hapu to join him at the roadshow to learn more.

“The Whanau and Hapu do not really know much about Laila or Mr Dotcom”.

However

“We are committed to our Vote Dearlove Get 3 campaign here in Te Tai Tokerau. We look forward to joining Hone and Kelvin in Parliament working for our Whanau and Hapu”.

Together building healthy communities – Tu Kotahi Tatou

Dearlove stood for Mana in Te Tai Tonga in 2011.