Ups and downs of dairy prices

After a major decline dairy prices trended back up for four auctions from August, but the trend is negative again after three successive drops.

 

DairyAuctionNov2015

And the 10 year index:

DairyAuction10YrTrendNov2015

After a little hope of recovery more worry for New Zealand dairying and the economy.

Source: Global Dairy Trade

Three year poll trends

David Farrar has posted Public Polls October 2015 at Kiwiblog, which combines all public polls over the past three years.

There’s details in Farrar’s post, but at a glance:

National have their ups and downs but are mostly staying within a 45-50% band. If this continues being on an up swing at election time will be important. After three terms they could just as easily drop below the ‘single party plus a handfuil of support seats’ zone.

Labour have recovered from last year’s election low and currently seem to have settled into a low thirties zone, with more fluctuation than any time over the last three years. They need to lift into at least the 35-40% zone to look like a lead party rather than part of an alternative bunch.

Greens are also fluctuating more apart from their post-eelction spike, but there’s signs their support has eased back a bit.

Unusually for NZ First they have maintained their election level of support and appear to be trending upwards.

Labour trend

Labour support has had it’s ups and downs over the last 76 years but the trend is clearly downwards.

Bryce Edwards tweeted this graph:

Embedded image permalink

What that doesn’t show is that their poll support has recovered from their election low a year ago, but it’s still below the trend line.

They have to get back to their last peak (Clark years) to get back into government unless they can convince NZ First to combine with them and the Greens.

Milk prices up again

For the third dairy auction in a row prices have risen significantly, this time up 16.5% overall. There’s a way to go before it can be called a recovery but the trend looks promising.

DairyAuctionSep2015

Ten year trend:

DairyAuctionSep2015-10yearTrend