Election – key electorate results

In general the party vote is all important, but some electorate results can be critical.

Total provisional numbers of seats:

  • National 58 (60 in 2014)
  • Labour 45 (32 in 2014)
  • NZ First 9 (11 in 2014)
  • Greens 7 (14 in 2014)
  • ACT Party 1 (1 in 2014)
  • Maori Party 0 (2 in 2014)
  • United Future 0 (1 in 2014)

It is thought likely that National could lose a seat on the final count, NZ First could also be at risk of that. Greens or Labour could pick up 1 or 2 between them.

This election Te Ururoa Flavell losing means the Maori Party are out of government…

Waiariki provisional result:

  • Tamati Coffey (Labour) 9,847
  • Te Ururoa Flavell (Te Ururoa Flavell) 8,526

…and National may be short of support partners (although the Maori Party could have sided with either them (again) or Labour.

Winston Peters has lost his Northland seat:

  • Matt King (National) 13,686
  • Winston Peters (NZ First) 12,394

Peters won what had been a safe National seat in a by-election in 2015 so this isn’t a shock result, but it is a shock to Winston’s ego and means that NZ First are back to being a klist only party. Alongside a reduction in NZ First’s party vote they don’t have a strong mandate, but due to the way the numbers fell under MMP are in a strong negotiating position if Greens keep refusing to work with National.

Apart from ego losing his electorate may be a good thing for Winston. He won’t have to split his time between an electorate and leading the party in Parliament. And if he decides to retire this term he can do so without causing a by-election.

Other electorate results of interest but having no effect on the overall outcome:

Christchurch Central:

  • Duncan Webb (Labour) 13,838
  • Nicky Wagner (National) 11,573

A loss for a Cabinet Minister but this seat has generally been more Labour in the past. Wagner will still return on the list.

Epsom:

  • David Seymour (ACT) 13,325
  • Paul Goldsmith (National) 8,549
  • David Parker (Labour) 5,048
  • Barry Coates (Greens) 1,878

Seymour saves ACT.

Coates only came into Parliament in 2016 when Kevin Hague resigned, but will be out again now due to the Green party vote slump.

Hutt South:

  • Chris Bishop (National) 17,392
  • Ginny Andersen (Labour) 15,387

Bishop got within about 700 votes of Trevor Mallard last election and earned this win through hard electorate work and favourable boundary changes.

Andersen pushed Peter Dunne hard in Ohariu last election but for some reason moved to Hutt South and lost again.

Ōhāriu:

  • Greg O’Connor (Labour) 14,486
  • Brett Hudson (National) 13,807

Peter Dunne decided not to stand leaving this seat open. Hudson had already asked voters to vote for Dunne so had to switch to asking for votes which will have counted against him, but Green’s late decision to stand Tane Woodley made it harder for O’Connor.

The party vote in Ohariu us interesting

  • National 15,697
  • Labour 11,713
  • Greens 3,203
  • NZ First 1,343
  • United Future 73

The UF candidate got more votes (212) than his party. Dunne used to get far more votes than UF.

Te Tai Tokerau:

  • Kelvin Davis (Labour) 10,448
  • Hone Harawira (MANA) 6,178

No comeback for Hone, this may be the end for him in politics and also for MANA.

Te Tai Tonga:

  • Rino Tirikatene (Labour) 8,435
  • Metiria Turei (Greens) 4,448
  • Mei Reedy-Taare )MAori Party) 3,843

Tirikatene seems to be succeeding more from his name and connections than his performance.

Turei is out of Parliament after her disastrous power play that nearly brought the Green Party down.

Two Maori seats appear to be safe

There had been reports that Te Ururoa Flavell was being run very close by Labour’s Tamati Coffey in Waiariki, but a Maori television/Reid Research poll suggests otherwise.

  • Te Ururoa Flavell (Maori Party) 60.1%
  • Tamati Coffey (Labour) 39.9%

It was a small sample size of 400 but that looks to be a comfortable lead. If Flavell wins this the Maori Party will be safely back into Parliament.

And Nanaia Mahuta is even more comfortable in Hauraki-Waikato:

  • Nanaia Mahuta (Labour) 78%
  • Rahui Papa (Maori Party) 22%

The Maori King’s backing of the Maori Party doesn’t seem to have made any difference there.

But both polls were had small sample sizes of 400 and were conducted from 11 July to 3 September, an unusually long polling period.

Both polls included party support but over such a period makes them of dubious value now.

http://www.maoritelevision.com/news/regional/flavell-runs-polls

http://www.maoritelevision.com/news/regional/house-mahuta-rules-polls

 

 

Waiariki electorate ‘internal Labour Party survey”

Without seeing details of claimed party internal polls it’s difficult to know how much weight should be given them, but caution should certainly be exercised.

Newshub:  Labour poll suggests it’s game-on in Waiariki

It obviously suits Labour to suggest it’s ‘game on’ in the Waiariki electorate. Labour have selectively leaked internal polls when it suits them, but most of their polls remain under cover.

The Hui has obtained the results of an internal Labour Party survey of Waiariki which is currently held by Māori Party co-leader Te Ururoa Flavell, and the numbers make interesting reading.

Candidate vote

Which of the following candidates would you vote for as your local MP?

  • Māori Party candidate Te Ururoa Flavell – 31.6 percent
  • Labour candidate Tamati Coffey – 30.1 percent
  • Another candidate – 21.0 percent
  • Unsure – 17.3 percent

Not having any other candidates or parties named may distort the result.

Party vote

Which of the following would you cast your party vote for?

  • National – 13.4 percent
  • Labour – 19.4 percent
  • The Greens – 12.1 percent
  • NZ First – 25.7 percent
  • The Māori Party – 18.9 percent
  • Another Party – 4.4 percent
  • Unsure – 6.1 percent

The survey was conducted between July 19 and July 22, and has a margin of error of 3.6 percent.

A margin of error of 3.6% suggests a sample size of around 750, but that would only be correct if 750 people in the Waiariki electorate were polled, and Waiariki wasn’t a subset of the poll.

In the 2014 election the electorate vote:

  • Te Ururoa Flavell (Maori Party 9,726 – 44.62%
  • Rawhiri Waititi (Labour) 5,837 – 26.78%
  • Annette Sykes (Mana Party) 5,482 – 25.15%

Party vote:

  • Labour 8,595 – 38.7%
  • Maori Party 8,595 – 21.79%
  • NZ First 2,801 – 12.51%
  • Internet Mana 2,524 – 11.27%
  • Greens 1,787 – 7.98%
  • National 1,120 – 5.00%

Backward politics

I don’t know if this is part of the official Labour Party feud with the Maori Party, or one Labour candidate being nasty. Tamati Coffey:

CoffeyBackward

Coffey is Labour’s candidate for the Maori electorate Waiariki this year:

About

My name is Tamati Coffey and I am the Labour Candidate for Waiariki electorate in 2017. Authorised by Andrew Kirton, 160 Willis St, Wellington.

I don’t know of Kirton authorised his backward swipe at his opponent via that same Facebook account.

Coffey will be standing against Te Ururoa Flavell in Waiariki, who won against a different Labour candidate by 3,889 votes in 2014, with Mana’s Annette Sykes a close third about 350 votes back.

Mana won’t stand this year in an agreement with the Maori party so Coffey will have to do something extraordinary this year to stand a chance. Playing the backward card is unlikely to help his chances in the electorate. It will be interesting to see what sort of list position Labour give him – reward or not.

Maori Party on the Alcohol Reform Bill

Te Ururoa Flavell (MP for Waiariki) and the Maori Party are proposing significant amendments to the Alcohol Reform Bill to address alcohol related harm.

Alcohol harm drives Maori Party to propose significant changes to Bill

The Māori Party is proposing significant amendments to address alcohol related harm by making changes to the Alcohol Reform Bill including the restrictions around proximity of liquor stores to schools and tightening up the criteria around trading hours.

“Alcohol is killing up to a thousand New Zealanders each year, and in one third of all crimes the offender had consumed alcohol prior to the offence,” said Te Ururoa Flavell, MP for Waiariki.

“If these statistics were not enough, then one only needs to look at our young people to know we must do all we can to save lives and keep our families from further harm. Nearly one-fifth of all deaths for males and one-tenth of all deaths for females aged between 20 and 24 are attributable to alcohol misuse,” he adds.

“No matter how you look at it, alcohol harm is a huge issue and it is sapping our communities of their greatest potential.”

“The Māori Party has been speaking out about the ongoing concerns relating to easy access to alcohol. We supported the efforts of the local community in opposing the application of a Cannons Creek  liquor outlet for a licence to sell liquor directly opposite school gates  and have been concerned that in Whanganui alone there have been four stores open up in just over a year.”

“The Maori Party believes that more can be done to prevent the harm which is associated with alcohol misuse and abuse in too many of our homes”.

“Our changes will ensure that alcohol cannot be bought anywhere between the hours of 3am – 10am and includes a ‘lockdown period’ from 1am – 3am for on-licence retailers”

“Our amendments also include provision for the Minister of Health to set a minimum price per unit of alcohol.”

“Our bill will limit the visibility of alcohol advertising and sponsorship in an effort to de-normalise alcohol. This includes grocery stores, where alcohol will need to be kept out of public view.”

“To address the high number of liquor outlets, we will have a sinking lid policy within territorial authorities so that over time we will gradually lessen the number of outlets. To ensure that smaller towns are not left without an outlet, the sinking lid only applies if there is another liquor store within 5km.”

“Finally, we need to give more community input into tackling alcohol harm. We have seen some heroic action taken by local communities right throughout the country, in trying to put in place protections around the sale and purchase of alcohol.  Our bill will make the proximity to a school a criteria for determining liquor licences and ensure Maori representation is included in the membership of the local committees who determine liquor licences.”

Maori Party SOP details:

  • Make the proximity to a school a criteria for determining liquor licenses
  • Local committees to expand by one to accommodate a mana whenua representative
  • Limit the visibility of advertising/product in grocery stores and grocery shops (so they are not visible in the store, but they are able to be sold)
  • Eliminate advertising and sponsorship of alcohol except inside on-licence premises
  • Sinking lid policy on off-licence retailers (liquor stores) within territorial authorities (replacement of existing stores is the only exception and only if there is not another liquor store within 5km)
  • Trading hours: Changed to 10am – 10pm for off-site, 10am – 3am for on-licence premises with a one-way door restriction period from 1am – 3am
  • Minimum price per unit of alcohol sold (which will be set by Minister of Health) – this follows the model proposed in Scotland

Supplementary Order Paper No 81:

Alcohol Reform Bill
Proposed amendments
Te Ururoa Flavell, in Committee, to move the following amendments:

New heading and new clause 43A
After clause 43 (line 20 on page 51), insert:
Minimum price of alcohol

43A Minimum price of alcohol
(1) Alcohol must not be sold or supplied at a price below its minimum
price on any licensed premises.

(2) Where alcohol is supplied together with other products or services
for a single price, subparagraph (1) applies as if the
alcohol were supplied on its own for that price.

(3) The minimum price of alcohol is to be calculated according to
the following formula:
MPU x S x V x 100
where—
MPU is the minimum price per unit (expressed as a decimal)
S is the strength of the alcohol (expressed as a decimal)
V is the volume of alcohol in litres (expressed as a decimal)

(4) The Governor-General may from time to time, on the recommendation
of the Minister, specify by Order in Council the
minimum price per unit for the purposes of subparagraph (3).

(5) For the purposes of subparagraph (3), where—
(a) the alcohol is contained in a bottle or other container;
and
(b) the bottle of other container is marked or labelled in
accordance with the relevant labelling provisions, the
strength is taken to be the alcoholic strength by volume
as indicated by the mark or label.

(6) The Governor-General may specify by Order in Council, on
the recommendation of the Minister, the enactments which are
relevant labelling provisions for the purposes of subparagraph (5).

The Green Party say “We support all the measures in Te Ururoa’s SOP but haven’t yet looked at what Labour proposes.” (Kevin Hague as spokesperson).